Where Florida's spike is coming from
 

Appears we have a spike in cases here in Florida. So I took a look at the Florida Dashboard county report to see where it's happening. The spike started on June 12.

Almost 70% of the new cases on June 12 came from 7 counties with Dade, Palm Beach, Broward, Hillsborough, and Orange counties racking up the highest numbers.

The average time from exposure to symptoms of covid 19 is 5-6 days. Huge protests for George Floyd took place on the weekend of June 5-6, and some of the largest ones were in these counties. Although it is harder to catch the virus outdoors, epidemiologists say that chanting and screaming expel more virus, exactly what happens in protests. They were packed together pretty tight in the larger protests.

Sumter County had no protests, and have had only 5 new cases in the last 9 days.
Marion County did have a protest, not thousands but several hundred, and they had a mini spike of 10 cases on June 12.

It's kind of funny that we still can't have fans at golf tournaments but many officials and even health departments gave their blessing to the protests, saying it was "too important"

Most of the media will try to blame reopening too early as cause of the spike, it was amazing how they switched from covid 19 24/7 to George Floyd 24/7

You can take a look at the Florida county data here:

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_pa...rts_latest.pdf

Incubation period is UP TO 14 days. The George Floyd protests didn't occur "up to 14 days" ago. Also, those counties have had the most cases from the beginning, this is just more of the same.

In addition, it was around the same period of time (up to 14 days ago) that the Governor relaxed restrictions on staying home.

I'm sure the protests contributed to the added cases. But there would've been a new wave of cases, ESPECIALLY in the above-mentioned counties, even if there were no protests.

We'll be able to draw a more informed conclusion as to whether the spike is attributable to the Floyd protests or the reopening a little later. If the percent positive on the state's Covid-19 dashboard goes down steadily after about June 19-20, it will be a pretty good indication the upsurge was due to the protests...and will not bode well for starting up concerts again.

However, if the numbers do come down in a week or so, the stock market and the rest of the country will breathe a sigh of relief that the reopening wasn't as ill-advised as some thought. That is, until the next wave in the fall.

Coronavirus symptoms start about five days after exposure, Johns Hopkins study finds
The median incubation period of COVID-19 from exposure to the onset of symptoms is 5.1 days

Coronavirus symptoms start about five days after exposure, Johns Hopkins study finds | Hub

New cases in Dade County were 517 on June 12. During the 2 weeks prior to that date they were ranging from 200-300 so no, this was a big spike and not "more of the same"

Covid 19 Numbers
 

A concern I have is whether we really know how many Covid-19 case there are in the Villages. Absent of broad testing we really don't know the percentages of the number of cases vs total population. Without proper testing we have no knowledge as to how many residents are asymptomatic and should be in any statistics? The question then is why we don't have broad testing within the villages. Not a few days on the Polo Fields or in Leesburg but regular on going testing in the villages. I mentioned this concern to a friend and the responses was "what impact do you think it would have on the sale of homes if it was advertised there were increases in the Virus in the Villages"? That was the first and most sensible answer I have received. Given the average resident is within the high risk group it did not make any sense to not have regular serious testing within the Villages!! We have elected to keep the current rules as the way to go until there are more realiable numbers regarding the percentages and exposures we face. As an aside I know at least one Medical Group will test if
you qualify to be tested. That is not what I mean. I mean regular broad testing by the Government, etc. for this high risk area.

I don't think your assumptions are correct. If a protester gets infected, he may show symptoms 5-6 days later or he may be asymptomatic. Either way, he can infect others he has contact with, and then they take 5-6 days to show symptoms. And so on.

Be interesting to see how this shakes out.

This has been going on for more than 2 months. Most people in TV are 65 plus and if they get so much as the sniffles, they are going to get tested. If there was a large scale infection of Villagers we would know about it by now.

The current spike now is most likely from Memorial day weekend. Numbers in the coming next 2 weeks are most likely from the protests and more things opening up.

You may be right about exponential spread. But I'm leaning toward your side, GoodLife (if I'm interpreting your "side" correctly) - I tend to think the uptick is because of the protests, or at least I'm curious to find out. What data do you think we need then, and when, to identify the protests as the cause of the upsurge, if indeed any data will point to the protests as the cause?

Or, in your opinion, will the cause of the uptick forever remain unknown, and your message is merely to point to Florida's population centers, rather than an event, to explain the upsurge?

Blackbird. Said in such a complete and logical way without any fat, posturing or hate showing that I can't imagine anyone alive not agreeing with your comment unless they only care about themselves and always have. Facts are wonderful. It ruins the ability to lie to yourself and have to endure the demons that haunt you when you can't sleep at night.

Well put and we all thank you.

Lake county also had a raise in cases.

Agree

I disagree. How can it be acceptable to gather in large groups, not wearing your precious masks, especially in areas with the highest concentration of the virus? As it is said, “ Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me” The country and state listened to the “ Experts”, ( wrong at least 50% of the time) in March. All should never let it happen again. Bottom line, spike is from protesters .

This page also has a lot of data. Enter county at upper right, then click tabs across the bottom.
Experience

Lots of protests in Lake County, here's one in Clermont

Attachment 84646

Exactly correct. Broward and Dade have a large population of tourists, and seasonal residents. Yeah, TV does too but So. fl is more densely populated. Those counties have been the highest in the state since this began so nothing has changed. They have increased the amount of testing areas so, of course, more tests more positives probably asystemic. So, if you want more testing in TV expect your positive results will soar

We do. The urgent care on 42 by Mulberry you just walk in no appt. and get tested.

And let’s not forget Father’s Day... typically multiunit families get together. You know like Christmas and Easter.

I had heard that spike is a combination from migrant camps, protesters, AND more testing. No one thing. Live life with common sense.

Can't have a funeral but by all means a protest is acceptable. Comical.

The re-opening was needed to save the economy. The protest only hurt everything, as most of these people don’t work and feed off the Government.
Since there is more testing, more cases. Really need to look at the number of hospitalization, to get a better picture of what is happening.

Without contact tracing, it's difficult to know source of infection, and doing contact tracing in a protest of thousands of people is probably impossible.

When your average time from exposure to symptoms is 5-6 days, and you get a large spike 5-6 days after huge protests it's a pretty good indicator.

Florida began reopening on May 4, if that is the cause why did it take until June 12 for a spike? Largest spikes on June 12 were in Dade, Palm Beach, and Broward counties and those counties are under tighter reopening restrictions than the rest of Florida.

If it was Memorial Day weekend (May23-25) the spike would happen before June 12.

Maybe I need to define what averages and medians mean?

The researchers found that the average time it took for symptoms to appear was 5.5 days, and the median—or midpoint by which half of the people who developed symptoms had started to feel sick—was 5.1 days. Overall, fewer than 2.5 percent of infected people started showing symptoms within 2.2 days, and 97.5 percent had developed symptoms within 11.5 days.

I heard. More rumors and fake news.

We had a BLM rally here in TV on Sunday, plus a Villagers for Trump rally on the same day. However I believe most attendees were more cautious & respectful as far as masks than the protests outside of TV. Let’s see if we have a spike at the end of the month. Of course TV has had more grandchildren & guests this month than we’ve had since January, so that will muddy the factors. Not to mention more driveway parties without social distancing lately, and restaurants/stores relaxing masks...as it is said, “time will tell”

I am not certain, but three relatives of mine recently tested positive for antibodies to COVID-19. They were never tested for the virus. They all had mild symptoms and have since recovered. They all received calls from the health department and are now part of the COVID-19 statistics. How many others are in the same situation but no longer contagious? Like I said, I am not certain this is the cause of recent spikes, but it could account for some of the stats.

You also have to factor in the delay in getting test results and then reporting

Clermont
 

[QUOTE=GoodLife;1785011]Lots of protests in Lake County, here's one in Clermont

Clermont was one that was the biggest spike in cases in the area. I didn't know there was a protest there but that could be the cause for the spike in Clermont.

You can test everyone in TV and the next day someone can go to Orlando ,catch the virus and infect many on return. .The onl y way to stop it is with a vaccine or never leave your house

I don’t think the spikes are due to the protests. I have been keeping track of the numbers since the middle of May and they have been going up daily. With the protests and with more things opening the number of daily cases has nearly doubled. Let’s face it the virus is still with us and to go back our old normal life won’t happen until we have a vaccine. Norge mean time wash your hands and wear a mask.

There has been a great deal more testing so of course the numbers will soar. Equally important or more so is the number of hospitalizations yet that’s often not reported.

Not really amazing. The media covers current events on a larger scale.

Maybe you need to keep better track of the numbers. New cases were falling thru most of May, a few upticks in June followed by a large spike June 12 thru 15.

Florida Coronavirus Cases Per Day

14 days is the max incubation time. George Floyd died on May 25th Memorial day. The protest started the next night May 26th. The op said the spikes started occuring around June 12th That is 18 days after the protest. The protest got more intense in the days following his death and are still going. I would say it is reasonable to assume the protest are playing a much bigger part than people want to admit.

Fake numbers
 

Florida is hiding much of its numbers so probably x10

Interesting. Someone produces facts and a theory that is supported by the facts and deniers it can't be so. I have also been watching the numbers for Sumter Co. and noticed that they had leveled off for a couple of weeks. The point being made was that areas with demonstrations had a spike in infected numbers. Whether or not you wish to see the correlation is a matter of your personal choice. Personally, I think the demonstrations are stupid and dangerous. The gov. is being overly lenient on these folks, no doubt due to it being an election year. Yes, my opinion.

Some would rather blame the spike in cases on reopening. The fact that they can say protests of millions chanting and screaming while shoulder to shoulder is just fine while fans at golf tournaments or church services in a parking lot are dangerous is pretty comical.

Apparently OB Baby doesn't understand what "up to" means!

Once you have been tested you will not be recommending regular testing. Will go down was one of the worst 10 seconds of my life. Very uncomfortable. I will not do it again.