Mortality Rate of the Virus
 

There are posters on this forum that have given us many many statistics about this coronavirus, enough to make my head explode. Those numbers just go in one ear and out the other with me. But having said that, I never thought the amount of "testing" had anything to do with the actual morality rate of a population.

I found this article from the CDC which makes the calculation of mortality rate more understandable to me. End result is mortality rate is direct correlation of amount of deaths with the amount of the population, NOT the amount of testing of a population.

Principles of Epidemiology | Lesson 3 - Section 3

This simple calculation explains why the United States is NOT "the best" in the world regarding the mortality rate for Covid-19. I always knew "cases" had nothing to do with the mortality rate. It seems imperative to me that our country's mortality rate for this virus be explained in these simple terms to the person who is responsible for all Americans.

Someone will be along shorrly to refute that method of collating, if it does not fit with the agenda!!:icon_wink:

I don't know why so many people want to minimize the facts. I don't know why so many people think that Covid-19 is a hoax. I see it on both sides of the aisle and everywhere. It is foolish if you are older to have a driveway party during this time.

I saw in the news last night that thousands of people had rented a huge Beverly Hills Mansion to have a party. One dead, four others injured in Los Angeles mansion party shooting

You are confusing mortality rate with IFR (infection fatality rate) The mortality rate for USA is all cause deaths divided by total population.

For instance in 2018
Number of deaths: 2,813,503
Death rate: 863.8 deaths per 100,000 population

If you were to calculate current mortality rate of covid 19 in USA
Number of deaths: 159,128
Death rate: 48 deaths per 100,000 (or 0.00048 overall)

Nobody is hiding this information, it can be found for any country in the world. World in Data lists covid 19 death rate per million for every country in the world. Just click on any country. USA is not the worst in the world, currently 8th highest rate.

Total confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people - Our World in Data

Epidemiologists look at the Infection Fatality Rate which is total deaths divided by number of cases or infections. To make this accurate, they have to estimate the number of asymptomatic cases never tested and add that to the number of confirmed cases.

CDC currently states the IFR for covid 19 is 0.0065

COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios | CDC

Thanks to covid most all other causes of death are way down. Good news.

Cases have everything to do with the mortality rate and here is why. In countries where there is less testing, fewer cases are discovered. Because of this, people are dying of Covid and those deaths are not recognized as Covid deaths because the people have never been tested so they are not considered a Covid death.

Here we have people that are dying of underlying conditions that have been exacerbated by Covid. In some countries if someone who has not been tested and found positive dies of a heart attack, it is listed as a heart attack death even though it may have been a Covid related death.

We also are counting the death of anyone who has Covid as a Covid death regardless of the cause of death. There have been people with Covid killed in car accidents that are listed as Covid deaths. I doubt that any other country is doing that.

Some countries such as Turkey and India, by the way, claim that they have fewer people dying because they are treating Covid patients with hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin and zinc.

I know that testing has shown these meds to have no effect, but some doctors in the US and other countries claim to have has success with them.

I honestly don't know what to think.

Maybe because they do not pay as well sooooooo.....

Thanks to covid most all other causes of death are way down. Good news.
Maybe because they do not pay as well sooooooo.....



or....it DOES NOT fit the Media's narrative...
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According to the CDC Measures of Mortality, what you are commenting about is the "Death-to-case ratio". That involves "guestimating" how many asymptomatics are out there. Other countries do not test as much as the US, so using those stats is not really relevant.

Deaths per capita is a better marker for the mortality rate of this virus. That is comparing apples to apples with other countries.

So very true

Sorry but no. Deaths per capita is a better way to compare the impact of the virus on various countries. The mortality rate of this virus, or IFR is always calculated by deaths divided by cases. Ask any epidemiologist, including the CDC which calculates this rate on the link I provided above.

Yes the amount of testing per capita affects the IFR, if you test at a lower rate your IFR will be higher, if you test at a higher rate your IFR will be lower.

The death per capita rate also has problems and is not always apples to apples. USA and some countries count any death where deceased tested positive for virus as a covid 19 death, even if they died in a traffic accident or were struck with lightning. Even with no test, if Doctor suspects death due to covid 19, death is coded as covid 19. Some countries only count deaths FROM covid, not WITH covid. Some countries do not include covid deaths from nursing homes, they only count deaths that occur in hospitals and not at homes.

The best way to count actual covid deaths is by measuring excess deaths in a given country. Most countries know their average deaths per year from all causes, so a spike in deaths over that average can be assumed in 2020 to be from covid 19.

Read this article with some charts to understand excess deaths better. As you will see, there are many countries doing much worse per capita than USA

Covid-19 data - Tracking covid-19 excess deaths across countries | Graphic detail | The Economist

I realize now that you posted this thread in response to something you know who said. He was wrong which ever death rate you look at, but I don't pay attention to what any politicians say about this virus, USA does not have the best mortality rate per capita or IFR, but we are definitely not the worst either. I look at the science and numbers only.

Saw in the news
 

To which "facts" do you refer? Of course, Covid-19 is not a hoax. It's a serious epidemic and needs to be taken seriously. Reasonable people should exercise responsible and reasonable care to reduce the risk off contracting and/or spreading the virus.

That said, what we've seen in America over the last five months has been neither reasonable nor responsible. As the "facts" continue to change, the shotgun approach(s) proffered by Fauci, and often implemented as law, have been draconian. Worse, dissenting medical opinions, and that's exactly what they are, from both "sides," have been ridiculed and ignored, pretty much like anyone who disagrees with the religion of global warming.

So -
Should thinking, responsible people exercise discression when engaging with others, especially strangers? Of course we should.

Should businesses, open to the public but not "deemed essential" (by whom?) be forces out of business, and their employees lose their jobs? I think not.

Should we surrender our liberty while we "wait for a vaccine?" Not me.

But... but... in 2018 Death rate from Covid was 0. Why not compare it to death rates in WW1 and WW2? Or any other causes of death.

We already compare the Covid tests to the period before it even existed as a step forward....why not ?

What I am trying to say is that it doesn’t matter to me what the Covid death rate is compared to any other death rate. It is in ADDITION to other death rates unless someone can show how for example, lung cancer death rates have plunged since people with lung cancer are now dying of Covid instead.

Not everybody that dies in the US have been tested for Covid either. The number of related deaths may well be underestimated in every country.

This is absolutely false. It goes directly against the CDC guidelines for certifying Covid deaths. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf
This oft-repeated claim has also been debunked here: Are CDC Guidelines for Reporting COVID-19 Deaths Artificially Inflating Numbers?

Oh, are we really doing this again??? Show us where you got the information that Covid deaths are paying anything. The conspiracy theory that just won't go away... :ohdear:

Wow. A lot of information here but nothing I saw relating to COVID-19. Maybe it was buried somewhere in all the charts.

What are you talking about? It is NOT entirely in addition to other deaths. COVID-19–associated mortality is higher in persons with underlying chronic health conditions such as heart disease and diabetes. A portion of this population with underlying chronic health conditions would have died even without being exposed to COVID-19.

There is a concept called "excess mortality"; that is, the additional deaths over and above the expected deaths. Not all COVID-19 deaths are "over and above" expected mortality. Therefore they do not ALL add to the number of deaths.

www [dot] cdc [dot] gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e5.htm

So those with terminal cancer, severe cardiovascular disease etc.etc. are now surviving longer because of the pandemic?

The linked information is not specific to Covid-19. I guess I should have titled the thread, "Mortality Rate of Illnesses". The information is how mortality rate is determined for all diseases.

And of course your heart stops when you die so maybe that's really the cause of death? This is all foolish to argue percentages. The fact of the matter is if you get Colvin is one more thing that can cause you to die and that of all the people I get clothing anywhere from 20 to 60 per 1000 have died . Compare that 2 deaths from cancer or heart attacks where there is several million per year in the u.s. dying. And don't forget 50000 people died I'm getting in their car every year

Numbers can be used what ever way you want.
 

Any body can make the numbers work for their scenario. Ask any real stats people

Most of us want the facts. Period.

Some of us want to make up conspiracy theories.

Some of us like to have the title of hall monitor.

I think anyone who doesn't take Covid-19 seriously and is old enough to live here is STUPID.

One of my friends wearing a mask was heckled by someone here and called "sheep".

She was a surgical nurse for thirty years.

Because most people live and survive the virus, that fact, should not minimize the real danger to the elderly who if they contract the disease have a much higher chance of dying of it. Usually choking to death alone with "concrete lungs".

We are still here. Hello. Show me your hands if you want to die.

No thank you.

Look at the Household
 

If two people live in the same home and one of them dies of Covid, that's 50% mortality rate, that's the fact, to heck with the rest of the world when it's your family.

That is funny, but not true. Because of the process we have, we could have influenza/pneumonia deaths being attributed to Covid, but we can also have Covid-19 deaths being listed as influenza/pneumonia especially if the person never got a test. Which could be very likely considering how hard it still is for people to get a test. Also, where deaths for influenza and pneumonia have been much higher than the average for past years, especially at the beginning of the pandemic. The CDC did a very in-depth and lengthy report on all this which basically comes down to it is hard to know exactly what deaths are from covid-19, influenza, pneumonia, or something else. You may also be interested in:

Fact check: Confusion about CDC's COVID-19 death count

I'd rather be a Sheep than a Rack of Lamb.

Really? Explain this:
Dr. Ngozi Ezike | How COVID Deaths are Classified - YouTube

A better indication is outcomes. There are only two outcomes recovered and death. Add them together, you get Total outcomes, divide by number of deaths, you get a very real death rate.

Really ?
 

It amazes me that these forums have just become a place for people to “one up on each other “ like they are the expert and the only one right.
The truth of the matter, which ever way you, our government or other country chooses to calculate death ratios, they will always be inaccurate AND thousands of people have died. And many from COVID. Wouldn’t it be nice if we, as retirees, use this forum with respect for those that died and helpful information to keep each other safe in our community? We are so fortunate to have been sparred from a huge outbreak here. Enjoy each day, manage your own risk anyway you choose, but with regards for those around you and focus on getting us all to a better place.

All it takes is a little common sense and you dramatically decrease your chances of getting covid-19

I skip over all these 'facts and charts' that are continually being posted on TOTV regarding covid-19....I got the message awhile back, it's real and it's dangerous to us older folks

The only 'fact' and statistic that matters to me is whether my wife and I remain safe.

Guess what...we have control over that, by controlling our behavior and our actions

Everyone has 'free will'....you get to choose how you play the game of life

I'm just not interested in gambling when the stakes are this high

Thanks for sharing. It’s pretty complicated, isn’t it? If we are measuring how many people out of 100,000 (Based on the entire population) have DIED of the virus, that’s useful, but if we only count those for were tested and found to be positive instead of those who have the symptoms but the test results didn’t come back in time or weren’t tested at all, we will have different numbers. If we exclude those who had pre-existing conditions but might have lived several more years, we are also inaccurate. If we try to measure how many people who have been diagnosed by testing actually die, then an area where almost everyone is tested, so lots of minor cases are caught, will have a very different result from one where very few tests are available, so only people with clear symptoms are tested to be certain. That wouldn’t be a case of trying to cheat on the statistics, but simply availability and the time it takes to get answers. Still, it’s infuriating to have to wait ten or twelve days for an answer, isn’t it?

The argument that the reason more people are being diagnosed is simply because more people are being tested, is partly right, in that if we didn’t test anyone and insisted that only those who tested positive could be counted, then we would officially have no new cases. But that’s a perfect example of the ostrich with its head in the sand approach. The counter-argument is clear: if we test more people and they are found positive, it is only because they ARE positive. We can’t really know from that alone if the frequency or ease of contracting the virus is increasing. We know only that more cases are being discovered because we are testing more. Given that we now know that many people who have the virus have no symptoms, it may be that it is no easier to catch now than a few months ago. We just know that it is continuing to spread. The numbers are rising, quite rapidly in some areas. To deny that there are a lot more cases but that instead there is just more testing ignores the fact that whichever is the case, a lot of people have this.

One thing about testing is that as we discover more cases and do the math to find the percentage of positive people who are hospitalized or who die, the mortality rate is dropping. Some sources think the mortality rate of the bubonic plague was around 40% of those who caught it, and the mortality rate of those with the pneumonic version (which is the main way people are catching Covid-19) was around 95%. By contrast, what are the current figures in this country for those who have it who die of it? One in twenty? (I’m really not sure of the figures right now.) Imagine if 40% of those who got it died! Would we be arguing over the need for masks?

Statistics are all over the place everyday. Bottom line. Protect yourself. Protect others around you by wearing a mask and washing hands. I dont vare about statistics. I dont care if we are the highest rated for the virus or the lowest. Its here and will be for a long while. Exercise due diligence and stay healthy!

Politics, sadly.
 

As long as there's a political component and, sadly, there always is, the numbers will be manipulated to savor the views of the "reporter." One thing I noticed yesterday is that they reported "death WITH Covid" as opposed to death CAUSED BY Covid. It's still true that figures lie, and liars figure.

You are taking CDC guidelines. It is the states that are telling people how to fill out death certificates. I know people directly involved in Florida and they are counting all deaths WITH Covid. Not FROM Covid.

Covid numbers
 

Don't trust the numbers being published! All hospital deaths are being counted as COVID. If someone dies from an accident, they are tested for Covid-19. If the test is positive, they say the death is from Covid-19. I heard this from a source who works in a hospital.

One page report with charts that provides ACCURATE data.
 

Here is a one-page report, which provides accurate data.

https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common/...e-dad298f0e060

Thanks for the explanation!

We have a doctor friend who told us this also. There are a lot of cases but most people who get it do not die.

I agree, but when would have they died? We are all going to die sometime, so do we compare that too?

I like the term “excess mortality” that would be a very relevant number with regards to Covid deaths for me.