“In the stock market, the most important organ is the stomach. It’s not the brain.”
 

Peter Lynch said, “In the stock market, the most important organ is the stomach. It’s not the brain.”

If you have been in the market for a few decades, you know who Peter Lynch is. And you have seen a few things.

Those who have been in the market for only one decade might think it’s always like this.

Any thoughts from TOTVers on what the 2022 market could bring — or take?

Boomer

PS: Of course nobody can predict the market, so nobody can hold you to your opinion — not even yourself. But it can be interesting to think about.

Stomach? I'd say a few inches lower than the stomach.

There's a pair of 'em.

Up & Down

I knew — I just knew — some guy would say that, and I knew it would not take long. . .

Hey. . .Maybe I am better at predicting than I thought. :)

Boomer

Some things are like that.

In Minnesota, any time from November to April, you can expect to hear "cold enough for ya?" at least five times a day.

Dontcha know. :)

Colloquial Boomer

Doesn't count unless you type it first!
 

:boxing2:

you have to call the pocket shots in pool. . .

Anytime i tried to tell my dad something new, shock him, he would reply "I thought that might be true." but would never say his thoughts out loud, or in any conversation with me before this, and he said it so often, that i labelled it as a "i am always right" auto-response. He of course wouldn't consider anything i said as potentially true when it disagreed with him, until he heard it on TV, only the TV was truth

:ohdear: :ohdear:

but good question, and then you need to save to see who is lucky. . :popcorn:

and always better lucky than good!

And lottery tickets is a strategy. . .

When your young there is plenty of time to wait for the roller coaster to climb back up after the big dip down.

Well, logically inflation will reach a point a majority of folks will have to limit what they buy. Since all corporations' profits are based on the amount of things/services people buy, you would logically conclude that stocks will go down.

Right now stocks are benefiting from free money(no interest) to expand, forcing people to buy stocks because CD's pay zero interest, reaping the profits of inflation and huge government paydays for some businesses.

But logically stock's should go down and we all know the rich get out first and you are left with the empty bag. Just saying.

if you’re a day trader, you should be doing very well. This economy is exploding

With your "logic", logically you are out and you are not holding the bag.

:ho:

I read the first two books Peter Lynch wrote. He really worked hard at investing and of course was incredibly successful with the Magellan fund.

My first stock purchase was in 1959 at age 17. I remember the Nifty Fifty Nifty Fifty - Wikipedia

and the mostly bull market until the mid seventies at which time it seriously tanked and did not recover for years.

Warren Buffett gave a famous speech at a July 1999 Sun Valley get together of the superrich one year where he pointed out that the Dow on 12/31/64 was 874.12; on 12/31/81 it was 875. During this time the sales of the Fortune 500 companies had grown fivefold yet during the 17 years the Dow had gone nowhere.

In the past from time to time I ignored my gut telling me "no, no, no" but charged ahead anyway to make a devastatingly poor decision. For the most part I have learned from those costly actions to listen to my gut which I believe is really the whole of my subconscious brain and my higher power.

Understand, at a certain age (different for everyone).

But I haven't seen a down Market I haven't been able to drive thru & out the other side and not be well ahead of any conservative investing model or thoughts.


:MOJE_whot:

Unless he is one of Dr Now’s 600 lb client, then he truly has two hanging stomachs.

My observation, market seems to swing with Covid fear and Covid waves. One can be slightly ahead by observing “canary” countries reaction. Other variables too, but lately it seems very Covid sensitive.

My simple plan for 2022: Stay diversified, stay calm and expect the unexpected in 2022. If health holds, play as much golf as able. Fore!

And boring, old-fashioned dividend investors slept right through it.

I assume Buffett had been buying, buying, buying throughout that time and reinvesting dividends from those steady, old workhorses he was holding.

(Yes. I know that Berkshire's dividends are reinvested not paid out to investors.)

Boomer

My first purchase was many decades ago , no internet, talked to as many people who seemed and probably did know more than me (easy to do even today!) ended up buying TRW, I did OK,, broker talked me out of Berkshire Hathaway,, oh well

Since November 2020 the Dow is up 10,000 and the S&P 1000. May be time to take some profits and see how 2022 is going. Remember. You don't make money until you sell.

and you don't pay taxes on the gain until you sell!

Up or down I will accept either, totally without panic if it becomes a down year. We have already won the game.

Just call me Iron Belly

I've been a person who buys good stuff and leaves it alone, never rebalance just to rebalance, sold because of other issues. Never sold a share during the 2007/2008 depression, never sold a share during 2020 because you knew it will be a "v" shaped recovery. Now, I'm thinking of selling almost everything because of the environment. Scares of people wanting to tax unrealized gains even in your IRA accounts. Now I think, I don't need to make another dime in the market to live comfortably so why take a big chance.

The best market prediction I recall is the old ad featuring Eliot Janeway...

Announcer: Mr Janeway, is the market headed up or down?

Janeway: Yes, but not right away.

At 72 I have implemented a disinvesting plan that started three years ago. Expect to totally be out of the market in 10 years. Mix moved to 1.0 or lower Beta.

Peter Lynch's philosophy.
 

Peter Lynch's always said buy stocks that you know from your daily life. He put Fidelity investments on the map with his stellar performance for Magellan fund. The other great investor was Bob Farrell of Merrill Lynch.

Maybe it’s just me but I feel 2022 has the potential for being a very bad year in the market. There is no doubt the Fed is going to start raising interest rates. You have Russia sitting on the border of the Ukraine waiting to invade. There is a possibility that China will invade Taiwan after the Winter Olympics, and just a lot of unrest in the world. If gas prices continue to rise everything you continue to go up in price and who knows we’re Covid is heading. So to me there is two much uncertainty in the world to be aggressive in the markets. Really don’t know what to do about investments.

You can’t predict the market but my gut feeling is that it’s different today than the past. I’m a vanguard fan and invest in mostly index funds the last 20 years. I’ve been selling off my taxable accounts for the last few years to keep my bucket system in tact in good times and bad. Normally I live off dividends and don’t have to sell any shares when the market is bad.
If you read last months AARP newsletter, they interviewed Jim Cramer who has always been bullish on stocks. He sold off more than half his portfolio for cash and what’s left is in index funds. This is what I wanted to do this past year and in this climate, it will happen this coming qtr

Thank you for that link, dewilson58. I read Charlie Munger’s part first and will get to the rest later.

Charlie agrees with me. This is the craziest time we have seen since the dotcom era. . .

I still have flashbacks of my young arrogance in those days. I thought those dotcom stocks were amazing. One of my funds returned 100% very quickly. Did I get out? Oh, nooooo. I just kept on bubble-dancing. Duh. It is true what they say about experience being the best teacher.

(At least I had not bet the farm. Only the butter and egg money.)

All the buzz about cryptocurrency has that dotcom feel for me. Charlie does not like it either. I guess it is that unreal feel that makes some of us — who have seen a lot of markets — uninterested in crypto.

Meanwhile, I think PG is hitting its all-time high today. I keep wondering why PG is not splitting. PG, up or down, longtime holders probably are not going anywhere because the check really has been in the mail, every quarter, since PG went public in 1890 — and the dividend has been increased for 65 consecutive years. Of course, there are far more exciting stocks when it comes to growth. But the psychology of a split could let new dividend investors tiptoe in.

Boomer Whipple

Never bet more than you can afford to lose.

One expert predicts down at some point and then a HUGE rise like in the S+P to 6,000. Pretty bold prediction!

I've only been investing in individual stocks for 3 years and I'm not very good at it. Pretty aggressive investments.

Years ago I read "The Money Masters" and some sequels by John Train. I learned a lot. Each one seemed to have a different approach.

"The Quants" amazed me. Amazon.com

That is true. Inflation could possibly come down because the product slow down at the ports and from lack of drivers becomes more efficient, which causes prices to drop.

Many things are exploding.

Russia on the border of The Ukraine could heat up and spook the market.

My self described conservative(not political) broker has a motto. He likes to sleep at night. He likes preferred stocks which pay out 5-7% a year.

I do hold stocks. Truth because of government actions it is a house of cards. Gone are pensions replaced by 401Ks, 403b kind of stuff. Heck if you have a pension, you may be shocked to realize the money to pay you is invested in the stock market. It is sort of like the 1920;s everyone is in the stock market whether it know it or not. The 1920s prosperity, ended with the incomprehensible misery of the 1930's depression. We must believe it will not happen. People of the 1920's knew the stock market only goes up.
History shows they were wrong. Lose the farm? The farm was your family roots. It was all you knew, it was how you fed your family.

Safe place to put your money. In the past you would build a treasury bond ladder. Truly simple bonds maturing at different times. You would use treasuries-zero risk, they were backed by gold or silver and they would pay roughly 2% more than the rate of inflation.
Today, the cpi, consume price index, is 7%.a ten year treasury is paying 1.7%. You have to pay that 7% with after tax money so you need 9% or more to pay that 7% inflation. Social Security gave you/us a roughly 5% raise. It is historically large. Only problem is it is not enough to pay the inflated costs . The stock market IS NOT A SAFE PLACE but due to inflation you have no choice but to swim with the sharks and hope they do not realize they are looking to feed on you.

The Villages Investment Education Club will meet Thursday, 1/27, 3:00, at Sea Breeze. This meeting will be a dividend discussion.

Boomer

Well, I am going to help you guys out but I know there are less than smart among you.

At our age we should be 100% in CD's and live happily ever after. But as you know, the Government has made interest rates .0001 percent.

We are in unprecedented times. The old rules do not apply. We are so deep in debt, mathematically it can never be repaid.

There is a Woke War on Oil. Logically (for you intelligent folks) this means a squeeze on the very thing all things depend. It will go up and up and up. No matter what. The world must have it. Buy Exxon and consider it a CD.

Have to disagree with your last sentence. Stock market goes up and goes down but long run it has gone up. Just have to stay the course. Too many people get out when it goes down and never go back in until it is up a bunch.

Timing the market does not work.