How has the stock market been treating you?
 

Throughout May and now into June after receiving a large chunk of change from the sale of a commercial real estate property at the end of March I have been dipping my toe into the water so to speak, buying a little of this here and a smidgeon of that there. I am in no rush to dive in. On one hand if the market turns up I do not want to be left behind; on the other hand if it dives further I don't want to have placed too much in it. Rising interest rates and a recession seem to be on the near horizon but Mr. Market appears to be oblivious.

Anyone have any thoughts about taking action on the buy or sell side at this time and if so on which sectors?

I do believe that all info available is factored into the stock market pricing and kind of think the market is near or close to a bottom so started to invest into mutual funds that have done well for me over the years.

Just one word: Plastics

Timing the market is very very hard. So figure out how much you want to put in the market. Not sure if I recall correctly but I think some studies say put in all in now as opposed to waiting and see what happens. I think I would dollar cost average into the market over say the next 6 to 9 months. That way if it goes down you won't feel so bad. l But assuming you are a long term investor you should be up in 10 years no matter how you got in the market.

As Norm from Cheers once said, “It’s a dog eat dog world out there, and I’m wearing milk bone underwear”.

As a follow-up to the OP’s June 7 post……..

Well, the market certainly is not oblivious this morning.

It’s days like this when the two rules of investing that I have used for years are coming through loud and clear:

1. Know thyself
2. Know what you buy……..
And, also……Rule # 3: Always, always, always maintain a moat of cash to protect stocks — even if the cash is paying nada, zero, zip, zilch. The cost of sleep is worth it.

I think some serious buying opportunities will be coming soon. It could be a good time for investors to study up on the lists of Dividend Aristocrats and Dividend Kings and see if any of them look interesting and then delve into their div safety — FCF, payout ratio, pe, beta, etc. And then decide whether to do a little shopping.

Even those stalwart, boring stocks can be booted off the list though.

I will say that I think this is going to be with us for a while.

The Fed meeting is looming over the market this week. It is rumored to be a big increase. And yet, CD rates will not get real any time soon, if ever.

I have seen a lot of markets. This one is in the shadow of two Black Swan events — Covid and the war. Add inflation to that and a bat-sheet crazy housing market — and a rocky ride this will be.

This is when I am especially happy that we do not have a financial advisor — who will get paid whether the clients do or not. I prefer to make my own decisions — and my own mistakes. But I understand that others have other approaches and prefer to turn over the responsibility. Not judging…..I realize they are just following my Rule #1.

Boomer

Starting to more or less dollar average into the market now. Think info is already factored into price to a large extent.

Let technical analysis guide you. Like Trendspider. No emotion involved. All indicators point to further decline. The big short has bet 20 percent of his portfolio against Apple and been printing money.

Check this site out.

https://twitter.com/Jake__Wujastyk

Grrrrrrr. Soon the Dow will be under 30k. There is no good stable comforting news to strengthen the markets. Downdowndown. And appears simply nothing from DC is in the wings to limit the drops. Grrrrr.

That's the problem. Too many people expect the Government to control the stock market, interest rates, gas prices, and everything else. I would rather have the Government leave things to the free market.

Over the last two months I have slowly put about 20% of my after tax sale proceeds into the market in what I believe to be good solid mostly dividend paying stocks. I agree with the prior posts seeing this market as continuing to soften and possibly drop significantly for several reasons.

COULDNT BE HAPPIER with fossil fuel stocks like devon and playing natural gas futures

Oil stocks getting hammered today. Nothing is safe in this environment. Little liquidity

Very true. Not to mention I am from the govt and here to help.

Run Forrest Run.

Not very well, but better than the Crypto market.

DVN is my newest holding, bought in earlier this year. It’s the first stock I have added in a very long time.

Bought it for the sector and for the dividend.

Sure got pounded yesterday. But so did everything else.

I’ll hold.

Boomer

Darn it, Chi. You’re giving me flashbacks. :)

Back in the 1990s when I was a bubble-dancer — dancing with that dotcom bubble — thinking I knew oh so very much — thinking I could see the future — thinking I could not lose………

“Plastics” was the word I whispered to Mr. Boomer, as I smiled and showed him those returns………

(He still loves me though.)

Boomer

:1rotfl::1rotfl::clap2:

Nat gas plummet 16 percent today

Mrs Robinson is still young in the movie. Real life probably 6 feet under.

The fat lady has not sung……….

In fact, I can’t even see her limo approaching the opera house — yet.

Boomer

We are all very uncomfortable. Few understand MATH. The S&P has lost roughly 16% from it's peak. To get back to what you had it needs to rise 19%. 10,000-16%=8400. 8400 plus 19% is 9996. My brokerage acct prevents my lying to myself. My 15 year history has been up every year EXCEPT THIS ONE.

Holdings, what you paid for them does not matter the question is or should be would you buy them at today's price.

I find it interesting that Buffet listed as the greatest stock picker is 86 and says he is buying stocks for long term. Buffet has also stated he does not often beat the s&p.
I am not in Buffet's league. I am not beating the s&p so I am not batting even average.

So many wise sayings. Hind sight is always 20-20 but foresight is far more profitable.
No one is right all the time. To make money you just need to be right more times than you are wrong.

Back to Buffet. I recall him saying I lost 44 million on that trade it was a mistake. Was I to loose 44 million on a trade there would be a lot of people wondering how they were so stupid as to LEND me that much money.

If I can double our money every 6-8 years I am a very happy camper. All you need to do is refer to the rule of 72 to see what rate of return you need on average to double your money in a particular time frame.

"From 1965 through the end of 2021, Berkshire shares have generated a compound annual return of 20.1% against 10.5% for the S&P 500. Most of Berkshire's outperformance versus the index came earlier in Buffett's tenure as Berkshire's CEO when Buffett, now 91, racked up huge gains in the stock market.Apr 29, 2022"

From: Berkshire Hathaway Stock Could Drop 99% and Buffett Would Still Beat the Stock Market | Barron's

"According to Standard and Poor's, the average annualized return of the S&P index, which later became the S&P 500, from 1926 to 2020 was 10%.  At 10%, you could double your initial investment every seven years (72 divided by 10)."

From: How To Double Your Money Every 6 Years

There have been some periods where this did not happen but long term it can be done.

I wouldn't touch this market with YOUR ten foot pole. Does this seem like a minor downturn to anyone? I've lived through three market crashes, and never have I seen an economy so bad that we had empty shelves and moms driving to Mexico for baby formula.

The three crashes I've lived through hit 50% before they turned around. The worst in history was 90%. We aren't even getting started.

Yes, I'm in cash, living it up on my 0.01% money market returns. Meanwhile, mortgage rates are over 5%, T-bills are 3%, and still we wait for the nation's crooked MM fund managers to notice. SSDD. Life in the Banana Republic of America.

Past performance is not a predictor of future performance. Market now ruled by algorithms and momentum. It doesn’t care what anyone thinks. Use technical analysis like they do,

Six month treasury bills paying 2 percent

Well, I have now mostly "invested" the sales proceeds I finally received in April. I took my time putting about 25% of it into blue chip stocks and ETFs. Most I kept for a while in old fashioned saving and brokerage bank accounts but since they pay so little I have been moving it into T-bills. Most are 6 month and will reward me with about 3% if I keep them until early 2023. I will definitely keep what I need for income taxes April 15, 2023 in T-bills.

My conundrum now is are we in a bear market rally?

idk, it's so hard to guess what will happen over the next 2 years. i've been staying put for now, waiting to see what crisis happens next, lol. i've left it in the advisors' hands

I believe all info is factored into current market pricing. As a result I think that the odds of a recession are in current pricing.

From my economic and grad school days always taught that 2 negative GNP quarters in a row indicate we are in a recession and believe we are in one now.

Having said this and with market increase in July thinking that I will shortly invest additional funds into the mutual funds I favor

Been in AAPL since June 1986, and added more recently. Expecting it to go to about $200 before they do another 3;1 split. Market is doing ok, but we have to stop doing these unpaid for multi trillion dollar tax cuts for the top 1%.

We are on the right path now.

Wall Street Roulette

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I agree with those that suggest we are in a bear-market rally.
Our government has flooded our economy with trillions of dollars and has just added another $700+ billion. To label the most recent helicopter money as the “Inflation Reduction Act “ is pure folly.
Households in the lower income quartile and those on a fixed income (some retirees) are always the hardest hit when inflation spikes. Especially, if it runs red-hot at 8-9%. The next quartile of lower middle class to middle class households have or are on the verge of depleting any savings they may have been able to accumulate during the pandemic. At some point, the upper middle class will follow suit. Many potential homebuyers are finding it difficult, if not impossible, to purchase a new home as the interest portion of their new proposed mortgage has doubled. The housing industry has recently declared that they are in a recession. Walmart disclosed that their wealthier clientele are now price-shopping.
Ultimately, inflation will become the tail that is wagging the dog (equities) as more and more income will be devoted to essentials. Yes, incomes are up but it can’t keep up with inflation running at at 40-year high. I don’t believe we have tested the lows as the Fed has no choice but to continue to raise rates substantially to tame the inflation beast. Unfortunately, this often leads to a recession and a hard landing.
IMO, defense is the game to play as opposed to chasing a bear-market rally.
One caveat: I could be way off base and completely wrong. Time will tell.

Ask 10 experts their opinion and you will get 11 opinions.

Here is opinion #12
 

The market is torn between slowly declining product inflation and continuing to incline service inflation. Product declining inflation is due to over deliveries of pandemic related goods to retailers. Service inflation is stickier due to rent equivalent / rent increases as a result of house price increases and slum lords not getting rent payments for about a year, yet utilities and taxes still payable, so they aren't going to let tenants get away with that again. . along with labor shortages pushing up wages.

From that tug of war, the risk is for continued increase in interest rates uncertainty from the FED. Only the very optimistic think that the FED is completely done. Remember that as interest rates rise government debt interest payments starts to crowd out investment and govt operating needs.

Secondarily, the geo political environment is very uncertain, with China practicing war games with Russia, Putin waiting to squeeze europe by shutting off gas during the winter, if he remains alive that long, and China wanting to subjugate Taiwan by one thousand cuts, which could cause the semi conductor goods delivery to collapse

I am still long XLU, utilities, long bonds with occasional hedging using TLT puts, long some hospital reits in the retirement account, as well as short some ****cos in the taxable account, Short MTCH, RUN, and AN.

most all positions are up except my long term TSLA puts, waiting on the outcome of the delaware chancery court, and the NTSA investigations to all the deaths. SpaceX lost its starlink govt funding, so doubtful that continues. my shorts are slightly underwater in this rally.

So no, not all information is currently priced into the market, from the uncertainties listed above. That's a theory which can't be proven true or false, so it remains along with efficient market hypothesis which depends upon that theory in the preeminent U of Chicago dogma.

but YMMV

everyone should have bought bbby in late june at below $5. . . .
better than a lottery ticket in an IRA

finance troglodyte

Use the same advisor your Congressman uses.

Glad I don't own Bed Bath and Beyond. They recently took a beating, and I don't see how they can compete against Target and Amazon. The CFO probably couldn't handle the stress and recently committed suicide.

Bed Bath & Beyond exec Gustavo Arnal ID'd as NYC 'Jenga Building' jumper: source