Bogus Weather Forecasts
 

Every morning, I check the Weather Channel app to see if it is going to rain. Today, it said that there was a 71 percent chance for rain at 5 pm. But, now, at 3 pm, the chance for rain at 5 pm is only 40 percent. I understand that a forecast can change, but this pattern occurs almost every day. The chance for rain at 5 pm is very high in the early morning, but then it decreases as the time gets closer to 5 pm. It almost never increases. It happens so often that I believe that the forecasters are intentionally publishing a higher chance for rain in the morning than the data actually suggests. Has anyone else noticed this trend and is there a logical explanation?

I’ve noticed the same. I’ve always found the weather channel app close to accurate in other places I’ve lived, but here it is way off continually, to the point I don’t even bother with it anymore. When I first moved here, I would cancel/rearrange/modify my plans based on the prediction of rain (like over 70%), that never occurred.

They should probably find new forecasters. Or send them back to school

The chance of rain at 5pm is usually pretty high if you listen to our local radio on air personnel. Sometimes I think they try to discourage square entertainment attendance.

Well, I expect weather forecasters to base their forecast on hard, scientific data, not on their own agenda. Obviously, they don't.

I look at the weather apps, but I don't trust them.

I almost 'bagged' a planned 2-night vacation a few months ago because the weather apps all forecasted severe T-storms in Clearwater.

I ended up going (with an umbrella) .... the weather was perfect.

Next time around (if there is a next time) I plan on being a weather forecaster. When you're right everyone says "Well, he called it." When you're wrong, you get a pass and people think, "Thank goodness he had it wrong." It's a win / win career choice.

:1rotfl::1rotfl:

Same here, sprinkling this morning, wasn't feeling great, cancelled golf due to large cloud on the radar moving towards TV. . . no rain since 8 AM. . wife is irritated that I cancelled for rain and none happened. .

that forecast also caused my sprinkler to weather delay for rain most of the summer.

Rain actually came for a few minutes at 6PM. . . light and not the flood TWC was predicting. .

We now have a hard drizzle, oops now pouring over here. Excuse me if I keep it here for an hour or so as we need it

Soooo, is there another app that has more reliable forecasts? From what I can see, they are all wrong randomly, but not necessarily at the same time.

I like to look out our window or sometimes our driveway look around and forecast.

It was raining up at my end of the Villages for awhile, starting some time around 3pm. By 3:30 it was pouring in some spots. It stopped around 3:45 and the sun came out a little while later. And then, around 5, the sky was almost black just to the north of our house.

WeatherBug is usually pretty accurate, so that's what I use on my cell phone.

Forecast really are for Orlando and space coast. We don’t matter way up here.:icon_bored:

If you live in FL long enough you'll know that the rains can be spotty....for instance it's pouring at LSL but the sun is shining in Colony. Was talking with a person (I didn't know) last week about how a lot of the weather patterns seem to hit all around us but it's pouring in Leesburg or in Belleview but it's passed us. We'll see black sky to the east (or west) and hear thunder but nothing happens. Squalls also happen while the sun is shining. Weather here isn't like what we were used to up north.

No different here than anywhere else we have lived, seems like they guess at what might happen, if it does they look great if not, oh well things changed in the upper atmosphere!

Same thing goes for an economist…

The days of a true meteorologist looking out the window and making a forecast are long gone, ...as is the personal bias of your favorite weather forecast personality. Yes, some offer their own spin, but they're working from a forecast handed to them by a service.

Weather forecasts have been computer generated for decades. There are only a few weather services offering subscriptions to their service. Each has slightly differing models of how they predict. When you see a forecast on a TV station, or a website, it is a derivative of one of those services, and they will vary depending on which service that broadcaster subscribes to.

Each model has quite a range of possibilities built into them, such as typical summer weather almost anywhere includes a chance of pop-up thunderstorms. Here, we're complaining about the accuracy of the timing, which is quite "soft" for most forecast services.

There are models which can be very precise, down to grids with squares about 100 yards on a side, but those are very expensive to maintain and not part of the usual subscription offers.

So, we make do with general forecasts ... and the meteorological variables of living on a rather narrow peninsula that has water bodies on each side with their own variables.

The only thing they get right consistently is sunrise and sunset.

retiredguy. you must be new to Florida. It's been like that for the 10 years I have been living here. 70-80% rain chances does not mean we here will get a drop .Even showing the radar with red and green and orange passing right over us does not mean we are getting rain. And you can be in sunshine where you are, and 1/2 mile down the road they are getting an onslaught of water. Hard to get used to for sure.

Welcome to Florida. The weather in FL is not like weather up north where you get fronts moving through. In FL, the winds come off the Atlantic and the Gulf. If you live on either coast, the weather moves in from the waters. If you live in the middle, the weather is created from the meeting of the winds. If you watch the afternoon weather maps, the storms/rain pop up like popcorn and move through or dissipate for no reason. Most areas in central and southern FL will produce weather pockets (pouring down rain across the street and dry where you stand). Major weather systems like Hurricanes are more predictable. If you don’t like the weather forecast …. Wait, it’ll change quickly.

The forecast for today September 28, 2023

"It is going to rain but not everyone will get it"

I hear that often, that just about covers it for all. :-/

Florida Weather is Difficult to Predict
 

Because Florida sits between the Gulf and Atlantic, the weather is difficult to predict. The weather software models are decent, but they aren't accurate enough to predict to the hour with high reliability. I look at the hourly forecasts to get a general idea of the weather that is currently predicted, then I watch the Doppler Radar an hour or two before an event to see what has actually formed. Even the Doppler forecasts for an hour or two into the future lack accuracy. Also, forecasts are for a general area like "The Villages". They aren't for the specific location in which you live.

Why are people so quick to dream up conspiracies? There are no agendas here!

The problem is that to model the atmosphere in a fine-enough resolution for accurate, pinpoint forecasts requires computers MUCH larger that we have.

Another thing to consider is that up north weather is more regional. You get an overcast sky and it rains about the same everywhere in the area. We get our rain here from isolated thunderstorms. It can be pouring on one side of the street and sunny on the other side. So, instead of getting a forecast for your specific yard, we get general trends for our area (i.e., there will or will not be thunderstorms in the area).

As for the general trend that forecasts of rain disappear as the day proceeds, would you rather be told there might be rain and there isn’t, or would you rather be told it will be sunny all day and then be faced with a thunderstorm?

I have spoken with meteorologists, and was told that any forecast beyond an hour is a best guess. Too many things happen to have a very accurate forecast.

Farmer once told me. If I farmed based on the weather forecast I'd be broke. If you follow the weather forecast daily they get it wrong far more than they get it right.

I’ve found that checking the radar on my weather app is the most accurate. Don’t forget, the weathermen are reporting on central FL. It may be raining in Orlando and not in The Villages. Also don’t forget how very large a community we are now. It may be raining in Brownwood and beautiful in Spanish Springs. Check the radar and if you don’t already have one, download a weather app and frequently check the radar.

Weather Forecasted by...
 

I believe weather apps info, television forcasters, etc are just educated guessers. Sometimes right, most times incorrect.

Accuweather.com
 

AccuWeather.com seems to be a little more accurate than TWC. None are 100% due to our location between two huge water bodies. Also, the heat generated by all the asphalt in our area creates a lot of the "popcorn" storms which are almost impossible to predict where they "pop".
I don't use any apps. I just use a browser and go to their website.

I have used minutecast for Wildwood and it is wrong quite often. Other apps - I have gone for a walk with 0% chance of rain and got rained upon.

Florida is a peninsula surrounded by warm water. Sporadic storms can generate almost out of anywhere and can be extremely difficult to predict. Even if the conditions are ripe, determining which areas will be hit and which won't is even harder. Up north, you typically are dealing with large weather fronts which can be patterned and the science is somewhat more established. Still, I am sure meteorologists catch their fair share of flak just about everywhere.

Weather is very unpredictable - it can be raining on one side of the street and not the other or at SS or LSL and not Brownwood. It's Florida!

That’s why I rely on Rock weather.
If the rock is hot to the touch, it’s hot.
If it’s wet, it’s raining.
If it’s rolling across the ground, hang on to something.

The problem is we live on a peninsula. The weather moves in from one coast or the other or both at the same time! This makes accurate forecasting very difficult, even with AI. Makes weather forecasting interesting and very nerve wracking during hurricane season!!

One thing that I appreciate about my iphone's weather app is the announcement of rain starting in 10 minutes. It's usually correct to the minute. So, I run outside and pull my golf cart into the garage.

Yea, but remember at 71% it will rain that means 29% chance it won’t rain, the other forecast says 40% it will rain but remember there’s a 60% chance it won’t rain. Take your choice!

All I care about is the lightning. When the Lightning Pro app on my phone starts popping up with notifications that there’s lightning 6 miles or less from us we start looking for shelter if we are out in our golf cart. I’m very afraid of the lightning having never in my lifetime experienced anything even remotely close to this weather we have here.

Why rain showers go around TV but many times miss us? I believe because we have such a high concentration of air conditioners that each blow hot air up into the atmosphere all day. This man-made updraft pushes weather systems out of the way as they cross TV area.

Weather forecast are not for a pinpoint location, somewhere like your house or front yard. Instead they cover a much larger geographical area, sometimes of many, many square miles. When a forecast calls for say a 50% of rain it simply means rain is predicted for 50% of the covered geographical area, not a 50-50% of rain over the entire area. So, when you see a 100% chance of rain, you know it will rain at your house and in your front yard, anything less than 100% means you may or not see rain.

oh the newbies.... LOL the reason the forecast changes so often and drastically is quite simple. On one side you have the gulf, basically the 'heat sink' only 2.5 hrs to the east is the atlantic 'cool breeze' depending on how systems & airflow moves across the state determines when and where the rain/storms will occur. sometimes gulf breeze is stronger therefore closer to cocoa beach... sometimes atlantic is straonger therefore Tampa area... often they meet mid-state. where mid-state is unpredictable. about 6-9 years ago I could tell you that somewhere around 3-3:15 pm Orlando would get nailed. it was a recipe. considering what's been happening on both waters it's really not the weather people or anything, most time what is at 8am won't be by 3pm.

Short version - Welcome to Florida.

How our memories dim with age. When I was young, the weather forecast would say "chance of showers tomorrow." Not 40% at 3 PM or 60 % at 5 PM. So we would take raincoats or umbrellas with us. Today, we get upset when the forecast of 70% chance of rain at 4 PM doesn't result in rain at 4 PM. I am just glad I don't have to predict the results in an incredibly dynamic system as our weather. Sort of reminds me of when the marketing folks would come and ask me to predict when my team would come up with an invention to solve the problem we were working on.