I don't quite understand the differences between sold and pending, especially on new homes as they close very quickly also the difference between pending and contingent, would a home that is contingent be pending and why are so many homes pending? If the year to date pending homes become sold homes that is a ton of homes being sold.

Thank you OP for sharing the Market Update data:
I read in other well meaning threads that the Villages Real estate market is in a downward spiral. The data provided by the OP does not validate that hypothesis. OP's data shows a strong market, perhaps I am missing something, if so please add your comments.

A pending sale in real estate simply means that the seller has received and accepted an offer on their home. However, the deal is not yet finalized — hence “pending” and not simply “sold.”

Suspect custom built homes that are under contract but several months away from closing could be in this "pending" category?

Contingent means that an offer has been made and accepted, but before the deal is complete, some additional criteria must be met. I'm under the impression Villages does not agree to contingent contracts.

Q2 results are at the link below, very little difference.

https://www.talkofthevillages.com/fo...2023-a-343130/

350 homes a month are being sold?

I guess there's still a thriving market in TV.

Does anyone know if those statistics are just for The Villages Real Estate or if they also include re-sale homes from MLS? Just curioius.

Villages only, without Middleton.


MLS sales are additional.

So there are 100+ homes sold, every week? That's a lot of buying & selling, with interest rates as the are.

I found the accompanying map that the OP did not post to be somewhat interesting for what "Brownwood area" includes. Basically, everything new that they're selling even homes that are a 30 min golf cart ride away from Brownwood Paddock. Seems to me they should've separated that out as "Sawgrass area" for anything East of Morse blvd at least.

The information provided does not tell the entire story. How many in the count were residents who sold their home and bought another in the Villages? How many were sold or bought for investment? How many homes sold below average and where are they located? (I can go on) These are important facts we will never know. A quarterly sales report is not the determiner of a crash or booming market. There are many variables that come into play.

Here is ONE example that all of us should keep in mind. Remember the early 2000s when the market was booming and it looked like there was no end in sight? 2008! Boom! Catastrophic crash! It can happen, folks! Whatever you do, never place all your eggs, hopes, and wishes in one basket. And, never allow one sales report convince you EVERYTHING is great. It is the information not provided that could possibly cause a crash. Call me Mrs Doom and Gloom but this is the reality.

You're exactly right. The numbers speak for themselves. Some folks have such a need to express an opinion and sit at their keyboard, they won't let reality or facts, stand in their way.

The housing market in TV (& most of the USA) is still reasonably strong. Obviously, higher interest rates have had an effect, but the basic tenants of Economics 101, remains the same ... supply & demand, drives a market. Some folks want to sell, some folks want to buy. The Villages remains the only community of its type in the USA and generally deals with a demographic that is nearly immune to minor fluctuations in the economy.

We must not exist
 

Again, anything south of Sawgrass doesn’t exist in this report yet we seem to be the fastest growing area of the villages. Oh well, maybe next year

I have been in sales all my life. It does matter! Most obvious: A Q3 report does not mean the Q4 (and those following) will bring in the same numbers. I read posts and I believe someone stated an average of 350 homes were sold each month. Altavia told someone on another thread, 50 homes were scheduled to close in one week in October. That is a significant drop from the 85(+ or - )homes sold in a week in prior months.

If all the below average price homes are in the same area (my guess would be homes farthest north) that could possibly mean a crash is beginning in that area. In time, that crash could affect the entire Villages.

If, for example,15% of homes were bought by residents relocating to another Village and 15% were bought for investments, that means over 100 homes per month sold were not new residents. A crash can happen if new buyers are no longer interested in purchasing in the Villages.

If there are a quite a bit of corporate investors buying up a chunk of homes on speculation, this too, could possibly cause a crash.

I could go on.....

If I gave a quarterly sales report to a bank requesting a business loan, they would laugh at me and ask for more information. GUARANTEED. If I wanted to add a partner, they too would ask for more information. One sales report does not give the overall picture.

I have no need to call mgmt. I do not have all of my eggs in one basket and I certainly am not charmed into believing ONLY what a quarterly sales report shows. I was here in the crash of 2008. Were you? I know what actually happened and no one is going to convince me otherwise.

Bingo.

Poor Negative Nellies in other threads......................hoping TV is crashing, hoping the developer if failing, trying to spread their sad life.

:popcorn::popcorn:

New homes are closed on their date, (30days) or fines are compounded daily.
Pending for them mean if buyer chooses to back out developer keeps the down. There are zero contingencies.

Custom homes (designers & Premier) are never on the radar to the public, only the buyer. House never shows pending on any site. Only in sold columns.

Preowned can close as soon as ink dries (think days for cash) or as far out as multiple months, if the one year built is in the mix. Those showing pending as soon as agent decides when to post.

Yes here in “07” and going forward. Since the numbers only reflect VLS, you need to get a view of MLS stats. Then Zillow and other sites, for sold by owner.

Then one will still have an idea, but nit the Exact numbers you are looking for. Since, you Don’t have the ability or insight of Banks, Mortgage companies, and Cash info.

But if you really need a mind numbing project, you can spreadsheet a list every house for sale, on all sites, every month, then check Sumter, Lake, Marion, and so on to get the exact date closed, and dollars paid.

Left Sawgrass last Saturday night and drove south on Megggison to 470.
So many dark homes and empty lanais on built homes.
Seems to me the Villages is sitting on a lot of unsold properties in the south area.

Probably not a good indicator...............
Many new owners have not moved in
Many new owners are snows.
Many new owners have not purchased lanai furniture.
Many new villages go to bed at sunset. :1rotfl:

The sky is not falling.

Compare 2023 to 2022. Focus on market prices. Year-to-date 2023 versus 2022 average home prices are similar (not crashing). Q3 2023 versus 2022 average home prices down slightly (not crashing). If the local market was indeed crashing, it would show up in prices. Everything else goes into making up prices in the market (Economics 101).

The sky is not falling.

The sales and Quaterly Reports have been substantialy consistent over time. The developer is in control of their market.

Anyone not convinced needs to take a drive down Marsh Bend Trail and 470 from Middleton to the Turnpike for evidence.

With 10,000 people retiring daily, I doubt the Villages will have any problem attracting 2-3 of those a day here. Theycontinue to pump several billion dollars of new home construction into the local economy for the foreseeable future.

The Charter School education complex and family community is a particularly brilliant and innovative move to ensure the future.

I guess you missed the post about someone who did a drive-by. He saw quite a bit of empty lanais. But, that doesn't mean the sales will continue to fall. This may just be a slight adjustment. Sales will vary from month to month. That is normal.

That bothers us little. We will be living even more towards 470 when our house is complete. You are correct in many empty houses though, we said the same thing last week after visiting our build site. The same houses along Meggison are empty and have been done for more than a month since the last visit. They are still dark and unoccupied. We of course checked the sales site and it reflects the same.

I wouldn’t put a whole lot into a pamphlet released by the Marketing Department of TV. Who is the publisher after all, The Villages Sun? I also wouldn’t put a whole lot into an argument the market is crashing either.

We bought to enjoy our retirement. We aren’t investing.

:BigApplause:

Just like you and a few posters have stated, do not be swayed by a sales report. Things change! No one on this thread has stated the market has crashed. Some gave examples of how it could and others are using their drive bys as cause for concern. Enjoy your retirement and don't worry about numbers.

Great information .. thanks
 

thanks to all who comment .. lots to learn

BUT.... if you look at MLS sales in The Villages sales are also holding steady as well. In talking with a realtor investor sales have slowed down. Reason is if they have to take out a loan now with higher interest rates the math no longer works.

I would be surprised if there was a big slowdown now, the experts predict the big housing market hit won't be until mid-next year.

Yes, there was a downturn in prices in 2008 in The Villages. Why would anybody here care, though, if they own their home. We're all on our way out soon, so live and enjoy. You can't take money with you. That said, anyone buying Villages property as an investment is in my mind, nuts!

A lot of sales here are cash sales thus interest rates aren’t as significant a factor as in other markets.

According to the sales report new homes are only sitting about a month. A lot of homes that are finished have not yet been released. New home sales are exceeding preowned inventories and new sales are going well down south.

The Prices Are Going Down
 

I saw another post and the prices were going down. I think this matters more to the investors though. Obviously the dynamic is changing for a rough ride, but how many years does a retired person have to live the dream?

The entire economy plays a role in moving here of course. We have taken notice that more than a few retired people have had to resort to returning to the workforce working as realtors, in recreation centers or whatever. Those investment accounts that were lucrative are drying up for many and moving to TV may no more be an option. Places like Top of the World and others may be more affordable. Then you have interest rates and for sure inflation causing the mess.

Again though, you only live so long. An increasing decision problem has made some house poor.

The two greatest forces in free markets are supply and demand.

Focusing on the demand part of that equation, we have to look at the demographics of the country. 10,000 people turn 65 every day. The percentage of people who will be senior citizens continues to increase and will for many years to come. Millions and millions more retirees are on the way in the years to come. The demand side of this equation is going to be here for the premiere 55+ community in the country.

I don't think there is going to be any significant slowdown in the future. Unless there is another 2008 Great Recession, but that is unlikely.

Hilarious
 

News straight from The Villages. Need I say more. If you need more cool aid, just read their paper and enjoy the day.

I am in the camp that The Villages is going to continue to build, build, build, and people are going to continue to buy, buy, buy. They will keep on expanding South, this formula has not only worked for more than two decades, it's getting better.

Florida, as a whole, has three huge great things for retirees:

1. Weather

2. No state income tax

3. Reasonable property tax

I think the fun is just starting and The Villages is less than 50% complete....it will be fun to see who is right. Whatever your opinion, enjoy every minute!

The Villages won't stop, until it reaches the outskirts of Tampa!

Why would they? They have a business model that works.

When looking at demand for a product, you do not merely look at potential buyers.They can provide a forecasted sales projection, but that is it.

You have to look at the supply and demand in the here and now. A slight downfall does not mean the market is crashing but it is a cause for concern. High-interest rates, extreme weather which includes hurricanes, lightening strikes, and excessive heat, the highest insurance rates in the country, limited medical, and the generation of baby boomers reaching the retirement age coming to a close, does not help the numbers.

But, no state income tax, a beautiful community, carefree lifestyle, low crime, and friendly neighbors helps the numbers.

What is going to happen? No one really knows. Simply, be careful of looking at the Villages through rose-colored glasses.

Well if people want to speculate on the southern area, I can offer one anecdotal example. I bought in Lake Denham. I was considering waiting for Eastport area. I only showed up in August to look around (had a rental) and see what was coming. When we drove through Eastport areas we didn't see much but flat land and not many areas that would be preserve type sites.

So we found a lot in Lake Denham that is on a preserve and a retention pond. We loved the lot and the house was suitable to our needs. So we bought it. But our lanai is empty. Our lights are off. We are a couple years from being able to move. We still work in Massachusetts. We will spend maybe 2 months total per year until we get there.

I can say the interior lots aren't going as fast as our preserve lots went. But in just the past 2 days we saw 2 houses go from pending to sold and 2 more go from available to pending. That was just in our neighborhood. Not all of Lake Denham, but one area (seems like Lake Denham has about 6 of these areas I'd call a neighborhood.

If they are still selling 350 per month, they are doing fine. They just have a lot of inventory right now. I'm sure lots of folks still holding out for Eastport area.

Many things work in cycles. I would suggest that sales of houses in the Villages also come and go in cycles. It's interesting to note that sales of new Villages homes still have not yet reached the peak of Village sales that occurred in the years of 2004, 2005 and 2006. Maybe that is a good thing??

Higher interest rates does not only apply to mortgage rates. A potential cash buyer has an option. Invest the $500,000 and receive income or use the $500,000 to buy the new home. Many of my younger friends are choosing to invest rather than buy. They use their income to go on trips and to splurge on luxury items.

I have to assume that your young friends already own a home as if they do not and have to rent, that investment income is pretty much used up and they lose the potential appreciation in a new home. If they already own a home that they are happy with I would agree that making their money work for them in this environment is a good thing.

I bought the house in the Villages, even at crazy interest rate, because every time we put our money into our retirement this year it disappeared in a day. Rather put it in the house. The house may end up our forever home and it won't matter as an investment, but either way seems like a better deal than the market.

Ugly Market
 

I agree in some respects. The market isn’t the place to be now. Bonds are paying almost 6 percent. Real estate isn’t the place to be either. When a house loses 20 k overnight, I think I’m good with my T bills.