Villages q1 2024 market update
 

Villages real estate
market update
first quarter 2024

I have been waiting for this to be published. It is not full of good news. 48 days on the market average!

Economy
 

The economy is hitting a tough spot for the Villages and the country. 55% of home purchases here are financed. The economy influences buying here and everywhere.

Credit card delinquency rates are at an all time high as reported by the Fed this week. Interest rates are starting to surge. Buckle up if you thought the inflation machine was tamed. Reports show there may be one, yes one rate cut in 2024.

As far as The Villages Sun and their advertisements with these numbers,
STATISTICS 101 and Measures of Central Tendency
Skewed perceptions for manipulation of an audience can occur when a presentation only focuses on one of three categories while ignoring the others in the subsets known as Mean, Median and Mode. Here averages or the “mean”seem to highlight the misleading propaganda. Many, many homes were sold at the MODE of reduced prices and huge concessions.

All is fun in rainbow sprinkled unicorn land.

Yep - $300 million in new home sales in Q1 (sans Middleton) - so 1-2 billion in new home sales this year is likely -- the sky is falling...

Danby is not an easy sell. South of Eastport move quickly.

Richmond and Villages north of Eastport are eagerly anticipated by buyers

Selling about 17 homes a day combined new & used, that's pretty good and probably better than any other community in the country, add to that however many MLS homes were sold during the first quarter and it's impressive. Also, 45 days on the market I don't see as a very long time. Some homes are selling within a couple weeks so there must be some that are way overpriced or bad locations that just aren't selling.

The numbers really don't look "bad". I would be interested to see how they compare to numbers in the rest of Sumter county.

What the Developer earns has NOTHING to do with homebuyers and residents. His money is his to keep. Reducing homes prices in Denham and Dabney to sell them quickly hurts those who want to sell their preowned homes. For some, the sky is falling! In order to sell, many homeowners must reduce their asking price significantly.I am so glad you are happy the Developer is making money. But, have you tried to sell your home? Maybe your outlook will change when your wallet is involved. I am pretty sure those who bought in Lake Denham and Dabney aren't thrilled their neighbors paid $50,000 less for the same model home.

Average time on market is not a good indicator. Some homeowners are lucky to sell their home in a few days or weeks. Others have their homes sitting on the market much longer. You can't lump sales together and state "everything is great." Not to mention, there is NEVER a quarterly report that shows how many preowned homes did not sell within the contract time and were removed from the listings. Did those homes vanish? This report is an old marketing technique to sku your numbers so you look good. It in NO WAY tells the complete story.

What the Developer DOES has EVERYTHING to do with homebuyers and residents of the surrounding counties.

I'm happy 20,000 employee's are gainfully employed and new jobs are being created

I'm happy suppliers and contractors have a continuing stream of income.

I'm happy the Sumter/Lake county tax base increased 100 million a month.

I'm happy expansion continues and streams of creative new amenities are in progress.

I'm happy homes around me increased 50-100% in sell price in three years.

And history show the majority who purchased here will be able to recover their purchase price and more at time of sale.

From the sales of the last three years.

2021 4,004
2022 3,923
2023 3,029

They might do 4x721 = 2,884 or close to 3,000 for new home sales this year

You have no idea of the true history of sales because it is NEVER reported. You are going on what you heard from the grapevine. It would be great to see ACTUAL numbers but that will never happen.

I have been here since it was only Spanish Springs. You see progress as great but I can take or leave it. Same cookie cutters homes again and again and again. The model I bought 20 years ago is still built today. I would enjoy seeing something different. Many would argue that the Villages was much better when it was smaller. Outsiders are not happy their hometown has seen a population explosion. I can go on...

My point is this. There is no sense in posting a quarterly report that only shows what the Developer wants you to know. We live in a beautiful community but like anywhere else, it has its problems. IMO, pretending everything is ALWAYS GREAT is not beneficial. Only the Developer profits from that type of behavior. I would rather see the bad as well as the good. This way, I can make informed decisions. I find it is always better to make my kool aid than drink what is served.

IMHO there are still many overpriced resales. For a homeowner to expect to double their money in five or less years is now totally unrealistic. Those in TV who purchased their home when rates were 3% are not about to trade that for a 6% interest rate. There are still cash buyers who may be waiting for further price drops. In the past, many new homes were purchased by current homeowners. I have not seen a 50k reduction on a new home by the Developer.

We had friends who recently looked at a new designer home with a 48,000 bond. The bond was a deal breaker for them. I understand their thinking. Overall, given the current economy and higher interest rates, I would rate the Developer’s first quarter results as above average.

These are the actual numbers that have been reported for new home sales over the years.

Year Homes Sold (Home and Lot) Average Sale Price
1986 511 *
1987 543 *
1988 517 *
1989 542 $ 74,000
1990 502 79,000
1991 430 81,000
1992 562 87,000
1993 567 93,000
1994 686 98,000
1995 700 106,000
1996 753 115,000
1997 1,054 119,000
1998 1,321 129,000
1999 1,544 139,000
2000 1,776 151,000
2001 2,074 156,000
2002 2,260 163,000
2003 3,329 168,000
2004 3,955 204,000
2005 4,263 232,000
2006 3,935 257,000
2007 2,403 251,000
2008 2,236 231,000
2009 2,115 229,000
2010 2,208 231,000
2011 2,307 241,000
2012 2,850 244,000
2013 3,419 271,000
2014 2,601 304,000
2015 2,294 304,000
2016 1,966
2017 2,231
2018 2,134 281,000
2019 2,429 307,000
2020 2,452
2021 4,004
2022 3,923
2023 3,029 410,000

Note: the numbers from the beginning thru 2015 came from page 43 of the SLCDD 9/10/2015 Agenda PDF
The information appearing herein regarding The Villages and the Developer has been furnished by the Developer.
All other data was gathered from published reports in the Daily Sun

Agree with most of what you said. However, some homes in Lake Denham and Dabney were indeed reduced by $50,000. My daughter looked at one because the price intrigued her. The sales rep told her the developer was eager to unload the inventory.She did not purchase because she felt the prices may go lower. She did not want to live in an area where she paid more for a home than neighbors.

Those are simply numbers sold. It does not provide information on how many homes were sold at a discount rate. Have you gone on VLS? When a new home is pending, the price the home was sold is immediately removed. No further information is given. If you look at their preowned listings, time on the market is never given. VLS is very secretive.

The minute you buy a home, you now live in a preowned home. My daughter is currently looking for a home. The sales history of MANY homes has given us a truer picture of the market. This information is not lining up with "everyone makes money when they sell" stories. A real eye opener!

[QUOTE=margaretmattson;2323518]Those are simply numbers sold. It does not provide information on how many homes were sold at a discount rate. Have you gone on VLS? When a new home is pending, the price the home was sold is immediately removed. No further information is given. If you look at their preowned listings, time on the market is never given. VLS is very secretive.

The minute you buy a home, you now live in a preowned home. My daughter is currently looking for a home. The sales history of MANY homes has given us a truer picture of the market. This information is not lining up with "everyone makes money when they sell" stories. A real eye opener![/QUOT


This is the only place that new homes are cheaper than re-sales. From personal experience, 70% over cost after 3 years is to be expected.

This is the only place that new homes are cheaper than re-sales. From personal experience, 70% over cost after 3 years is to be expected.[/QUOTE]

Preowned homes are more expensive because they have $25,000 or more to pay in closing costs. This gets added to the asking price. Not to mention the cost of upgrades they made to the home. Since many Villagers sell their homes within 1 to 3 years, I understand why their asking price is higher than new construction.

Those who sold their homes 70% or more over cost were fortunate. Those who bought the homes are now sitting on homes they cannot sell. Their asking price is way above the market. On MLS we see many who bought homes during the covid craze who now must take a loss. Some 40K and more. My daughter is moving slow in buying. She wants to do everything she can to avoid a possible expensive mistake. It seems for every"I made a wad of cash on my home' story, there is a sad reality for those who paid the wad. This is happening because the Developer continues to build at marginal price increases and has no problem discounting hundreds of homes to suit his needs. A buyer has to be careful!

Nothing posted here is factually correct. A small percentage of new homes in less desirable areas are cheaper than existing homes.

We almost bought a fairly new preowned home 24 months ago and the closing costs were going to be around $2000. We ended up buying new but nothing related to closing costs, we still had to pay some fees to buy our new home.

The closing costs to SELL A PREOWNED HOME are $25,000 or more. The realtors fees alone for a $500,000 home is $25,000. Yes, when you purchase a home, closing costs are minimal.

As a very satisfied and comfortable (in my surroundings) Villages homeowner, way up here in Poinciana, I see what the developer is currently developing, and continuing to plan on developing, having less and less impact on me, and on my "investment". More and more, what is being developed is separated from me by distance and concept. The more that is true, the less impact it has on my current lifestyle and on my anticipated lifestyle and the marketability of my home, when the day comes I or my heirs should decide to sell it.

I believe the marketability of my home will be more affected by things neither I nor the developer can control, like interest rates, and how affluent the pool of buyers may be at that time, which will be due to how well THEIR homes are selling, distant from TV, and how well the investment markets have done for the decade or so prior to their retirement, or their pre-retirement years.

These quarterly reports are mildly interesting, but as for representing anything that affects me, personally, basically eye candy.

A developer sellng a new home and the buyer wanting to eventually sell that same home are ENTIRELY DIFFERENT scenarios. The developer may make a sizeable profit from the buyer. However, that same buyer may need to sell for a loss.

Or, that same buyer can make more profit than the developer on the resale. Because of this, the developer does not allow a buyer to immediately flip his homes. He is interested in protecting himself.

What goes in the Developer's wallet stays in his wallet. What goes in a buyer's wallet stays in his. Both accept a potential for a loss. It is foolish to try and compare when one has nothing to do with the other. Congratulations! The developer is making great money.This doesn't always mean good news for homeowners.

I personally think far too many overthink the property market.
The main reasons a house does not sell, whatever the market, or interest rate conditions are:
Priced to high.
It's a dump.
Poor location, or a combination of any three.
If the market deems you sell low, you will buy low. That has always been, and always will be.
All commodities make their price level from market demand, and property is just another commodity.
The expectation that you should always make a profit is nonsense.
So many enter the housing market with expectations way above reality, just because historical sale prices were higher, or lower, if buying.
All reports and figures showing sales, returns etc. from vested interests should be treated with a very large pinch of salt.
My wife and I have bought and sold quite a few houses in our time, and all our best deals were in fallen markets.
Go grab a great bargain!

THE PLACE IS BOOMING.
Where else is selling 2,000-3,000-4,000 houses.
Some swings, but no market bust.

With inflation being an issue would that not indicate a higher interest rate ?, home sales slowing , possible stagflation ?

Wait, I was told by TOTV experts that paying off the bond doesn’t impact your resale.

I have trouble trying to figure that out as well

Lately, It has just been marketing jargon from the sales reps trying to make a bond payment seem inconsequential. Telling a would be buyer you do not need to pay it off helps immensely with a new home sale. I believe most on TOTV will agree the bonds are ridiculously high. Their advice has been don't buy new homes look at preowned instead.

Yep.

People filter information to be consistent with what they want to believe.

There. I corrected it.

If you buy a new home and pay off the $48,000 bond, do you think you can sell the home at a $50,000 higher asking price than same model homes? Most buyers wouldn't even look at your listing because they would instantly feel it is overpriced. They would have no idea you paid off the bond.

No body is saying you can profit from paying off a bond.

As far as bonds go, if you are earning more from interest on capital you could pay it off with, keep the bond payments. If not, pay it off.
The same if cash rich from a house sale. Take a mortgage when buying the next property, if you can earn more investing proceeds.
If you sell with no bond, it's obvious it is a great selling point, and a better deal for the buyer.
Never listen to vested interests, they are looking for their best deal, just the same as you.
It really is as simple as that.

Who said anything about profit? Most would want to recoup it when selling.

I realize most on here live and enjoy what they already own in TV. As someone who watches the market looking to purchase there is a simple way to see what the truth of the market is and that is pull up Zillow and look at what is selling and at what price. Anyone who believes their patio villa is still worth 300k is wrong. Anyone on an interior lot who believes they can still get 300 per sq ft is wrong. Anyone who believes housing at current interest rates, taxes and bonds are a good investment are wrong. Anyone who doesn't care about any of these things and is looking to live the dream is going to pay for it and most likely will be upside down in the home's value potentially for many years. Sales are slowing, listings are going up, and prices are dropping on preowned but only from levels that were unsustainable over the last three years. If you bought prior to 2021 great. If you purchased 2022 or after with improvements etc you are most likely going to struggle to recoup. This is a bad environment for flippers, investors, and value buyers but perfectly fine for existing and future residents looking to be where many of you already are.

U

pay off $48k bond, sell for $50k more......................$2k profit,

I disagree on investors, but it totally depends on how long they are willing to wait. Even 2008 investors eventually made lots of money, if they waited long enough.

Many people in this post think they are real estate experts - - - HA!

Many people in this post are gleefully thinking The Developer is experiencing a financial downturn- - - HA!

Any people who think The Villages is not Booming are Nuts!

I agree - the Developer is doing well, and good for them! We all benefit.

Most would round off a sales price. $648,000 looks like you had a recent price reduction. $650,00 looks like an original ask price.

The Villages is booming for the Developer. Currently, many preowned homes are sitting on the market for months. If yours was one of the many sitting, would you still be laughing? A boom for the Developer does not always equate to a boom for every homeowner.

I do not think I am a real estate expert. But, I have been searching for a home. This market is rough. A few sell their homes for sizeable profit but most can't even get a buyer in their door. I see price reduction after price reduction on MLS. This week there were 64. Last week, 48. The Developer was forced to reduce the price of 250+ homes in Dabney and Lake Denham. Things are MUCH DIFFERENT than in years prior.

I meant more short-term investors. I agree with you there is still value in holding property in the long term. Many on here have said 2008 had very little effect on values in the TV market because the value here was incredible. Now TV is a known commodity that many have been profiting from with an above average 6% annual return, lower taxes, lower bonds, lower insurance rates, amenity fees, and expenses on everything related to inflation. This strategy has forced many investors into the short-term rental market to make ends meet and this is also not working for many.