About One Hundred new listings on MLS today for TV?
 

As I have said on here before my wife and I have been watching the real estate market in TV for our near-term purchase for retirement. This morning 6-8-24 listings increased from 536 to 635 over night. Interesting turn of events?

Not really. Well within the historical standard deviation of pre-owned listings. I would also expect that as the population of original owners age and pass, there would be more pre-owned homes for sale. Look at new homes---certain areas are sold out instantly.

An 18% jump in inventory in ONE DAY is "well within the historical standard deviation"?

This is not that simple the listings all show activity in the listing history over the last month like listing removed, pending, or sold. I keep track of the number of listings every day and yesterday 5-7-24 had the most in 2 years I have kept track at 536 and today it jumped to 635. Something weird...

Over the past year, inventory has been growing. It is a buyer's market. If you are not set on a particular home in a specific area, you will be able to purchase a home at a discount price. Hundreds of new builds are sitting in Moultrie Creek. By the end of summer, the developer will most likely have to reduce the price just like Lake Denham and Dabney.

Are you certain your last search did not include homes in the surrounding area and rentals? Sounds like a big jump in one day.
At this point, the exact number available does not matter. Homes are sitting in every Village with many forced to reduce the asking price. Some more than $50,000.

The total is within the historical range. And do the MLS listings tend to renew on the same day? But keep us posted to see if this a true trend.

I've also been watching and my initial guess is a glitch.

It has jumped. Many normally limited markets in Florida are surging in inventory. I would certainly wait and see how it plays out for a few days. The Fed leak that rates are remaining yesterday might be what’s going on? I know the FRED has A LOT of people concerned. The Las Vegas real estate market kind of emulates The Villages market and last weeks numbers show it is getting clobbered. We are perhaps edging into the big drop? Look for about 20% when all is said and done.

And what was it 6 years ago? 8? 10?

Unless it continues, nothing weird at all.

I thought so also until you look at the listing history and they all show changes in last month or so.

There are many on the market
 

If you lived here, you would note many many many homes are starting to sit. Rental signs from private companies are also everywhere. A valid correction would be at about early of summer 2021 prices.

You should see rentals going down in price soon. Villagers sometimes sell to “jump” to another place in the Villages. The home won’t always sell, so what happens, they rent. More rentals will effect that lower price point. Remember, most of those homes were bought at that cheaper window price point.

The developer lowers the pricing on any villages homes that don’t sell. 3 years ago when I bought there were discounted homes in 2 other villages. Chitty Chatty and Bradford. I chose to go with a different village and pay full price.

250 + homes were reduced in Lake Denham and Dabney. Nearly 100 are still available one year after completion. While those 100 homes are sitting at reduced prices, new builds in Moultrie Creek are starting to pile up. This is nothing like previous years. Inventory is much larger.

Facts to back that up????

Cherry Picking
 

Cherry picking has taken place in most new areas, it’s the kissing lanais nobody wants that are cluttering everything. IMHO, the builder has to really enforce his shadowing of properties as a firm policy. Markets change, so may the building out policy if the recession plays out. The premier idea might be too late and played out at the wrong time. Dabney looks stagnant. Remember, the socioeconomic retirement demographic has changed quite a bit because of inflation. It will reflect on retirement options for fixed income retirees. There are less “haves” and more “have nots” in the retirement age group.

Several threads on this subject were started back in September 2023. A few posters noticed homes sitting empty in Denham and Dabney. In January, many of us counted 250+ homes with new price reductions. It was very easy to find. On VLS, the homes now had bright red reduction prices. The 100 that remain still have the discount rate in bright red. As for Moultrie Creek, you can do a drive by or go on VLS. 200+ homes are available. This number goes up every week.

Historically, an average of 400 preowned homes were available on MLS and approx the same amount on VLS. (+ or - a few) Today, both sites are over 600 .

With a large amount of new homes built in the south, a rise in inventory was to be expected. The problem? The average amount of buyers has not increased. This is causing the large inventory. IMO, This is not likely to change anytime soon.

Correct, Chitty Chatty was tough, it was isolated and lots of power lines along with the main golf car path to the bridge going through it they gave heavy discounts to complete that village and probably celebrated when it was finally sold out.

Craig,
Thank you for the insightful statistics. Two questions as noted please.
1) Do you, or others on this site, know how many homes approx the villages builds per month?
2) Also, what is the number of homes available for sale via the Villages listings at this time?
Thank you

I can answer the inventory on hand question.

VLS = 903 homes
MLS = 627 homes

Good Day Grandpap,

I am not sure how many homes are built by TV in a month but the number of available new builds is usually kept at around 300 ready for sale spec homes. The VLS currently has 604 preowned and 299 new built active listings for sale.

Numbers
 

Roughly 1,100 VLS includes New and Pre-Owned (excludes lots)
Roughly 740 MLS includes Redfin, Zillow and Homes (excludes FSOB)

Accurate statement.

I didn't break down the new to preowned, so let's say 1200 preowned combined VLS and MLS. Now if we take say 240 homes sold per month, we are looking at 5 months of inventory, which is about average. That's at the high end of "average" and considering where we've been over the last 3 years, this is a concerning trend.

I wonder if the buying frenzy when interest rates tanked might have something to do with it, how many people sitting on the fence were then inclined to jump in, how much did that shrink the pool of buyers?

They've been averaging around 50 - 60 new builds a week.

The Villages New Home Sales: 2003-Present | Inside the Bubble

With over a billion dollars in new home revenue annually, carrying a few hundred homes in inventory is noise from the Developers financial perspective.

Irrelevant
 

The thread is about excessive inventory, it doesn’t matter either way how the developer is affected does it? It has to do about the housing market and the inventory boom across the entire state. There are record setting numbers in some areas and the numbers are climbing, not going down.

Thanks for this info.

The same 3-4 posters keep popping up in these threads, insisting "gloom and doom"...

They must take some sort of perverse pleasure in doing so...

They're bordering on becoming our favorite "Climate Change/Buy EVs and save the planet" poster...

The concern is rising inventory. Over the past few months, the Developer had to sell hundreds of homes at a discount price. He has not been immune to this trend. It appears the majority of closings have been on discount homes and folks cherry-picking premium lots in Moultrie Creek. The remaining homes are sitting in that area and the amount is starting to rise. If this continues, he will be forced to reduce the price. Anyone looking for a home in the Eastport area should wait.

How is anyone enjoying rising inventory? It affects ALL homeowners in a negative way. Would you rather posters drink kool aid, put on a pair of rose-colored sunglasses, and pretend the inventory is not rising? The posters did not create this problem. They are simply discussing a situation THAT DOES EXIST. It is not going to go away if posters remain silent.

Ignore user is your friend.

Correct
 

Yes, we all know the market isn’t great anywhere in Florida. The only ones that say otherwise are the cool aide drinking, Developer backing, stooges that have programmed their minds that if the Developer does well, everyone else does. They couldn’t be more wrong. We all live here. We care about our homes. It’s just that those with a false reality can be unbearable with their false Villages Sun type hype. Things aren’t going well right now, but they will again in the future at some point.

The correction has to happen, you can’t float on top of a bubble forever.

I get it. People handle information differently. If they want to ignore, so be it. Neither talking about this trend or remaining silent is going to change the situation. It is, what it is. The only people who benefit from rising inventory are buyers. If smart, they will be able to purchase a home at a great discount.

Agreed
 

Agreed. Reality governs us all. Eventually when we do see the bottom in pricing for the market, many will benefit from buying when we get there. The initial premise of the whole thread was inventory issues. It is going up, prices are coming down.

How does rising inventory affect me in a negative way (I am part of ALL homeowners)? Other than a possible open house, if the home next to mine was for sale I would have no idea. In fact, if having the home on the market meant the owner paid a bit more attention to the external appearance of the home then it actually benefits me. If new homes are selling slower it means slower crowding in restaurants, stores, squares, and roundabouts.

While some have given numbers for pre-owned homes on the market, I haven't seen any statistics showing the percentage of those homes on the market is atypically high. It could be there are usually X% of homes for sale at any time and as the number of homes increases, so does the size of X%.

As for new homes, are there more on the market because sales have dropped off or are there more on the market because the Developer has increased production? If they are selling about 300/month then they are on track to meet the number from previous years. If at the same time the number on the market is increasing all it would show is that he is building faster than in previous years.

Nah... I like to read all opinions. But it does get tiresome...

Only one person is on my "ignore list". It's someone who actually threatened me, challenging me to a fight...

There has been an increase in average inventory but the average amount of buyers has not increased. If you need to sell your home, you will be facing fierce competition trying to grab one of the few buyers. If you do not succeed, you may have to drastically reduce asking price or take your home off the market. Currently, there are over 1500 homes available. There is NOT a buyer for every home. If your neighbor cannot sell his home, he may choose to rent. Or, take a large loss just to get out. This will reduce the value of your home.

Prices are dropping. The value of your home may continue to be less if the trend continues. If you are a homeowner who intends to stay in the same home until you croak, it is possible you may see a slight reduction in property taxes.

I am using this alarming trend as a reminder to keep my home in pristine condition. No pink walls, crazy color cabinets, floors that don't match etc. If there comes a time that I need to face the competition, I want my home to look its best. A family member is currently looking for a home. She is going to avoid types of homes that are being hit the hardest.

House Built
 

We had a new home built that we are now renting. We will sit on it for a while. We have a second home in Clearwater for our boat. The home is great but the same issues with the housing market is going on there. It isn’t just the villages that has been hit with this market pressure. Unfortunately some of our nest egg is lost for now. When we set sail south and return in Augustthings could be different. It doesn’t really matter if you don’t want to sell your home though. Enjoy life. The money will co,e back someday.

Pose the general question as to when most homes are listed in The Villages, Florida to one of the agencies listed below;

Homes in The Villages, FL are listed throughout the year, but there isn’t a specific peak season for listings. However, spring and early summer tend to see increased activity. If you’re interested in current listings, you can explore options on platforms like Zillow, Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices, Realtor.com, or Trulia.

Disclaimer; I am not, nor ever have been in Real Estate. I wonder how many posting on this thread are realtors.

Hi graciegirl,

Thanks for your response to the post. Hope you are well.
Craig