More accurate rain forecast needed
 

I have been using the weather.com website for years and, at this time of year, they always start off by predicting a high chance of rain in the afternoon which, quite often, drops away dramatically

For example, at 3pm this afternoon (2pm in brackets) they showed the following chance of rain:

5pm - 41% (76%)
6pm - 71% (98%)
7pm - 79% (98%)
8pm - 71% (68%)

so, in the space of an hour, their prediction for rain at 6pm and 7pm dropped from a confident "almost certain" 98% to considerably less.

To put it another way, their prediction of "no rain" at 6pm has soared from 2% to 29%!

I know weather forecasting is an inaccurate science, but they can see what's coming from hundreds of miles away so why can't they be a little more accurate for what's going to happen in just a few hours?

Their percentages for rain do this almost every day - go on-line in the morning and they will predict a very high chance of rain, yet a few hours later it will most likely have plummeted

It's almost as if they start off with exactly the same figures every day, ignoring all of their instruments, then crank them down as time goes on, just to give themselves something to do

Anyway, what sites do you use for weather in the next 24 hours?

Thank you

This time of year, hard to predict as showers are so scattered. So you won’t get rain but 1/2 mile away they will get 4”. Rain chances as forecast by the weather service is for a broad area, not just the villages or Leesburg.

Best thing to do, watch the sky and Doppler radar.

Or just look out the window

All of the weather apps are wildly inaccurate at times. I have tried them all, but always come back to weather.com which I find to be the least bad. YMMV

I said the same thing on another thread. I am convinced that they do it on purpose because they don't want to be criticized for predicting no rain, and then it rains. I use The Weather Channel and the Weatherbug. Both do the same thing. It is not inaccurate predictions, but a deliberate attempt to deceive the public. They almost always predict more rain than actually occurs.

Your funny! a false weather forecast to deceive the public… For what purpose ?

I’d think they offer a “worse case scenario”. Plan for the worst, hope for the best.

This is a fairly simple synopsis of how that "percentage" is calculated. It is a different than most folks assume.


How our meteorologists calculate rain percentages and what it means

The app is called "Windy"
They have many layers of information

There is no question in my mind that they are trying to deceive the public. If you follow the weather forecasts, you will know that also.

Why do they do it? I'm not certain, but I think that they don't want to be criticized for predicting that it will not rain and then it does.

Why would anybody think otherwise? If I've learned anything in the last 4 years, it's that you can't trust anything. Not the weather apps, definitely not the government, and certainly not the MSM.

Obviously in the case of weather apps, the hedging is more about not being wrong rather than active lying and deception, but still.....

Answer is simple.

98% chance generates more hits than 76% chance.

1. The answer as to why the rain forecasts stink is reviewed in the Weather Club's talk called "Why the European Weather Model is Best" ... which is next given August 19 at 10 AM at Everglades for the Science & Tech Club - South.

2. Even though the Euro Model is better, we are still far from accurate daily rain forecasts due to (1) lack of sufficient data and (2) lack of knowledge of how clouds work.

3. With a few trillion dollars injected into improving weather data & science, we could be much closer to better forecasts, but we instead spend it on the fake climate crisis.

If you watch the storm cloud system formation, it is spontaneous during this time of year. It changes literally in minutes. there can be no rain at your location and 2 inches a mile away. Nothing/Nobody can predict that with even 50% accuracy.

The weather channels need to shock/scare you into watching (by getting your attention) like every other A/V channel. They use to use pretty/shapely weather girls but that is no longer politically correct :)

"Dog Bites Man" gets no views..."Man Bites Dog" gets millions of views.

When they say 80% chance of rain, they don’t mean there’s an 80% chance it’s going to rain, it means 80% of the area will get rain. on Tuesday, there was a huge electrical storm and I live by Sawgrass Grove and got Buckets of rain. I went to Lake Sumter Landing the next day for an appt. The computer got hit by lightning but they never got a drop of rain there. I remember many times where it would rain at my house and never at my friends down the street.

I certainly feel your pain. When I take a boat out of Crystal river headed out to the gulf to go scalloping, I count on that since it takes over half an hour to get back in to land. I went out last Saturday with The Weather Channel app telling me less than 20% all afternoon. I got a couple miles out and could literally see lightning fairly close by. We hightailed it back just to be on the safe side.

That rainstorm on Tuesday barely gave us 1/2” of rain in DeLuna, but it rained buckets up above Brownwood, and I know of at least one village (Dunedin) that lost power for a short time. On Wednesday we got at least 2” of rain in a short span. Summers are crazy here in FL! I use the premium version of the Weather Bug app, and it’s hit or miss with accuracy.

I would much rather have an accurate stock market forecast.

I ain't going to get either.

That makes no sense. Using that same logic, a 2% chance of rain means that 2% of the area will get wet. Nope, the sky is clear and nobody is gonna get wet.

An 80% chance of rain means just that; a probability 80/100 times with existing conditions will produce precipitation.

@Sounding can probably clarify.

I don’t mind that rain is difficult to forecast, getting wet never hurt me. Lightning on the other hand, wouldn’t it be great if that could be accurately forecasted!

Here's your everyday forcast for Florida:: Hot and Humid, with a chance of a thunderstorm.... there , your welcome.

The 4 things I did upon moving to the Villages ...
1. Install lightning rods on house.
2. Install a whole-house surge protector on main fuse panel.
3. Install individual surge protection outlet strips on all home electronics (TV, PC, etc)
4. Replaced the flexible, yellow gas lines in the attic (which are NOT lightning proof) with black iron piping.

According to the NWS, a 40% chance of rain means .... there is a 40 percent probability for at least 0.01" of rain at the specific forecast point of interest.

What gets me is they predict much higher chance say 80% and we get nothing at all

That's because you were in the 20% that got nothing -- assuming the 80% forecast was right to begin with - which of course it not always the case. Remember, this is all computer generated -- using inadequate forecast models which use insufficient data. The problem is ... the NWS is NOT a profit making business -- which is why businesses that can afford it purchase higher quality forecasts from private companies - which are also limited by models and data, but they use experienced meteorologists for a man/machine mix to produce better forecasts. This is also true for short-term seasonal/climate forecasts.

That just means that 20% won that day...

I got a life insurance policy to help my wife out when I get by lightning while either golfing or swimming laps. This place is a lightning death trap if you enjoy doing outdoor activities in the afternoon and evening.

Just hold a one iron up in the air in a lightning storm...Even God can't hit a one iron :)

I believe you are 100% accurate :)

Try weatherunderground.com. They use a larger network of sensors to form their forecasts.

ALL of the big name weather networks use exactly the same forecast info from NWS. So, you won't find much variation, just pretty pictures for your location. Weatherunderground.com is different. While I imagine they use the NWS forecast as a base, they have a huge sensor network to make their information more accurate.

Tens of thousands of people have their own personal weather instruments (easily bought from the internet for a few hundred). Each of those has the ability to be connected to weather networks like weatherunderground.com. More sensors, better accuracy.

Two of those personal weather stations in our village give more accurate static readings than any of the big name networks. More at weatherunderground.com/overview

... and Yes, summer days always start with a forecast of t-storms in the afternoon. That's simply the way summer weather is.

Also, nobody can tell you how much rain you got at your home except for you. You might get a drizzle and 3 blocks away they got an inch of rain. I have my own weather station to run my sprinkler system so I know exactly how much rain i got and I upload this data to weather underground and another weather site for others to link to the data.

You are right as the weather peeps seem to have a hard time. You never know when to put on your rubbers.

Who cares?? Just carry an umbrella. Simple

I believe that percentage is not that you will get rain, it is that a percentage of the area will get rain.

Weather.com and weather channel are nothing but ads. Accu-weather is the best.

In central Florida in the summer, if you predict a 50% chance of afternoon showers, you will be correct 100% of the time!

Last night’s thunderstorm with the insane non-stop lightning was the worst we’ve experienced since moving here to DeLuna in December 2022. I was seriously terrified! We had planned to take a golf cart ride to Brownwood for the last hour of Rocky and the Rollers, but it was starting to look kinda iffy weather-wise by 8 so we decided to stay home at the last minute. By 8:40 the storm had hit with a vengeance and lasted at least two hours. We were so thankful we hadn’t gone out. The Weather Bug app had said 65% chance of rain, but it rarely happens here in our village as predicted.

Florida is the lightning capital of the U.S. However, Lake Maracaibo in Venezuela sees lightning strikes nearly 300 days per year. Regarding POP (probability of precipitation), that will be the opening subject, tomorrow (Jul 22) at 1 PM at the Bridgeport Rec Ctr - for the Science & Technology Club - for a presentation called How Hurricane Identification Philosophy Is Changing.

Use the app Radar Now, very detailed and accurate

Weather
 

Agreed. Friday July 20, 2024 the weather.com app said no rain late day, but a very large thunderous, lightening filled storm dropped 2 inches of windy rain in our village. So hard to believe the forecasted hour by hour info. I thank God for the rain since he is really in control.

It's Florida. Get used to it. The weather will change in 15 mins