It feels like two completely different housing markets in the villages.
 

There are hundreds existing homes on the market on MLS. There are many more on thevillages.com. I get at least four emails/day from Zillow reporting price drops.

On the other hand, if you want a home with a larger view lot in the Eastport area you are in a lottery with about 20 competitors for the privilege of paying $650K-$800K. Homes are sold instantaneously.

I live in a nice Winslow CYV on a corner lot. But, I'd like to upgrade to a Veranda with a view lot. It ain't easy. There aren't very many, and you have to enter lotteries.

In real estate in my experience it has always been "location, location, location". Looks like that still holds true.

tough being in rural FL in a development with more development going on, and people looking buy new versus old. . . there are tipping points for everything, but if a cow pasture looks like it can be developed by a developer, then a developer will develop. .

New South is cheaper than developed North??

See a lot of "Northern" properties for sale by owners thinking, "Well if I can get this price, I'll move."

:posting:

Saw a recent article about a home where the owner wants to double the price in just 24 months. Could be a large amount of work went into a newly constructed house but seems more like shooting for the moon.

The so called lotteries
 

We live at the southern end of the existing villages and heard about possible lotteries from our villages agent while shopping here in the summer of 2023. The lots we were viewing were in "The Enclave" and the 2 best were about $300k just for the dirt lot. We realized we were too poor and moved on. There are multi million dollar homes sandwiched together there now. Since then we heard new residents talking more about lotteries and apparently now on the west side of Turnpike, lotteries are a common thing....while OP points out there are thousands of homes available in the market. We chose a prebuilt 3/3 designer home on a pond with a huge yard and no lottery. There are probably 100k homesites over on the new side and there will be something for anyone that can afford "The Lifestyle" lol. I shake my head whenever I hear someone fearing the lottery.

That being said....I whole heartedly believe that these lotteries are a fabrication created to instill a "buyers frenzy" so to speak. Villagers are competitive and everyone wants the best available. The developers are taking advantage of their potential buyers' need for instant gratification and can take a so-so lot and make it attractive when the agent says "so many people want this lot, or home, that there's a lottery and you better put your name and deposit in now". Next day...."oh you got it".

OP mentioned Verandas....most veranda homes don't have a view because it's walled in....but occasionally there are a few. We went over to Shadeybrook and looked at a designer veranda on a preserve and also the shallow creek golf course....had a weirdly shaped huge backyard lol. It was basically the new version of the gardenia model. $800k and I hated the neighborhood because the streets were very tight and the homes seemed closer together. Made us love our home even more. You can find a new home if you want it with a villages agent that knows exactly what you want and they can alert you to lots and homes that will be coming onto the market. We got our home because I found it the morning it was put on the market. Best wishes whatever you decide

Yep, folks in Fenney are already whining about Coleman Ridge. I don't know when people will learn that buying near undeveloped property in FL is a crapshoot.

It’s still true that property is only worth what somebody is willing to pay.

It's not the folks in Fenney that are whining as you say. Coleman Ridge is on the western side of The Village of Hammock of Fenney, why they named it that is beyond me, which is far from the original village of Fenney. The industrial park and multi-family housing over there was already in the works when they built homes in Hammock and it was well publicized, buyer beware.

The headline from the news source that shall not be named:
Village of Fenney residents wary about massive Coleman Ridge development

Our first visit in TV was the free for all buying of “07”, from 2010 until 2014, our first 3 homes we had 1 hour to take the home. Today It’s far more competitive for certain new Villages, than previously. So here is actual experience of how specs and lots now happening in TV.

The lottery as you are questioning, isn’t a lottery of sorts. Your VLS guy 24-48 hours receives a list of sites that will be released either a build lot or spec home. Every VLS agent has the same info to give to their potential buyers. Then the VLS agent has a list for each lot or home, with all of his clients that would like those properties. With over 350 VLS agents also have the same property and more or less potential buyers.

On the day of release at 0800 the sites go live. Up to 350 agents are clicking each property. By 0805 95% of all properties have anywhere from 1-2 names to over 40. Each agent can screenshot to their customer the list of where their name is.
So out of 15 build lots, we were 5th to 43rd on the list.

We were first on #16 lot release. Not the ideal lot, but checked off model fit, view lot, stretch 6’ front and back, room for small pool. What we didn’t get was lot stretch sides, no 3 car garage just a golf cart garage, larger lot for bigger pool.

After we wrote $10,000 check to lot #16, we continued on 5 more build lots that would have fit more of our needs. We were #2 on 3 lots, and #11 and above on the last 2. If we would have taken one of the last 5 lots we would have lost our $10,000 deposit on lot #16.

In Florida, a “Hammock” is a large stand of hardwood trees and palms that grow on slightly elevate land. The beautiful village of Hammock @ Fenney has such a feature, hence the name.

We are not “whining” about the development, you’re just reading the sensational headlines of an on-line local “National Enquirer”.

When we looked at homes 3 years ago before we custom built, the homes up north were as expensive as a new one.

When one took into account outdated kitchens,baths, AC units and possibly a new roof, the new homes were more appealing.

Granted you had a mature landscape but at the end of the day, you were just too expensive for what you were asking.

Not sure if that’s changed but it’s what we faced back then. So when you compare the houses (new vs. old) keep that in mind.

Bond
 

And then there is that little bitty of an EXTRA charge….the BOND of 50 K. It’s all int he fine print.

What percentage do you really believe Don’t have a clue about a Bond? The bond stays with the house as it is sold, rarely do you find new home with paid bond. Our last four houses sold with bond in place, not a surprise to anyone bidding on the homes. I must give too much credit to those buyers in TV, not buying with blindfold on. Even my parents in their 80s asked balance of bonds. according to you most are just clueless and bonds are hidden in the fine print.:faint: or maybe it your personal experience that you didn’t see the bond fine print and are warning all.

It may stay with home but the owners responsible for paying it whether it be year or 20. Yes it is extra expenses.

Are you correct in saying that “people are looking to buy new” rather than buy resales? Anyone know the actual figures of new versus resales per month?

Paid
 

We paid ours off a month after the house was built and closed on. It would make the house easier to sell, but we would lose money on the sale because home values aren’t that good right now in Dabney.

The yearly bond is nothing but extra real estate tax. Peanuts compared to the real estate bill in the Northeast.

The Hammock of Fenney is adjacent to the Village of Fenney, how can something adjacent be far? Even the furthest part of the Village of Fenney from Hammock of Fenney is no more than 5 minutes away.

The project is on the far west side of Hammock, there will be no sight or sound from the project within the Village of Fenney as it is a pretty good distance both west and south of the entrance to Fenney or to any of the homes within Fenney. The only problem anyone will have is going to be the increased traffic on 301 and 470 along with Meggison which everyone is going to have to put up with.

The enclave is an area that TV were offering big discounts for land because nobody wants to build there. This is the only area that 1/2 the lots are still available 1 or 2 years after development started, even DeLuna between the turnpike and 301 were more discounted but sold out within 6 months.
The enclave was supposed to be a unique premier village like the older premier upscale home villages but the enclave has a mix of large premier homes and designer homes.
The lotteries going on in Eastport have many more people than 20 bidding on homes/lots. I know multiple friends that tried up to 7 times to buy a home/lot, so it’s not a gimmick.
If TV wanted to gouge the buyer, instead of the lottery, have them do an actual bidding war for each home/lot, you will see even higher prices than what you see now.

Coleman Ridge
 

What is Coleman Ridge?

Changes all the time
 

I recall buffalo that used to be near 466 and the south end of the Villages on Buena Vista. That was UNTIL they started building south of 466 lol. If there is a dollar to be made then it is made, regardless of those who don’t have control of the circumstances of bordering property.

New vs old
 

Well people may like new and have to be in a lottery to get what they want which takes time. Or they can buy my 22 year old stucco house with the most beautiful view of Laurel valley palmers course tee number 4, green number 6 and a water view of birds and wildlife sitting on a cul de sac. With privacy from neighbors. And you don’t need to pay 50k on top of the new house price for a bond! !oh don’t forget 2 squares in 10 minute golf cart ride, Publix , Costco, Ace , and restaurants and bars all within 5 minute golf cart ride. Convenience galore!!!! Mini split in lanai with 8 double sliders and a bird cage. 2400 sq feet hvac space Not for sale ——but a high enough offer gets it!!! lol.

I believe we share a village (moved here in September). Love, love, love it.

Precisely why we didn't buy new. I think here, more than most communities, "location, location, location" varies greatly depending on the buyer.

I was at the Board of Commissioners meeting this past Tuesday night at Everglades Rec Center, where a great deal of the agenda concerned the Coleman Ridge project. There were several residents there to voice concern over the development. The main thing on the agenda centered on the addition of 121 acres into the Coleman Ridge project, and rezoning of those additional acres. The project carries a mixed zoning designation, allowing a possible combination of residential, commercial, and industrial usage. A representative from the developer spoke at the hearing, and said the developer has made no decision, as yet, exactly how that property will be developed. That seems to be what has folks most concerned...i.e., there could be an industrial park placed within that development. They have a right to be concerned.

Why not
 

Sure, it’s very close to 75 and could generate real profits for the right company. It has to happen sooner or later. The cement factory down the street is generating record profits even though it basically is in downtown Middleton.

Villages Pre-owned
 

Hey Jim - I am with you on this! I've had my Gardenia for sale since August and have had 1 ridiculous offer. Seems that GONE are the days of having your house sell in days or weeks after listing it. The Villages has DEFINITELY changed over to a BUYERS market after being a SELLERS market for years. Definitely disappointing...BTW I am in the market for a Winslow-C CYV and there are not many, if ANY, new or pre-owned!

You might want to update your post. None of the lots were offered at big discounts…today no lots are available, 2 homes are pending, and one is up for 1.5 million. We would have built there because it’s extremely quiet, and removed. But when designers were in the mix for “Premier” neighborhood, with same interior as any house, we passed. So far every preowned in Enclave has sold rather quickly, with a very nice profit

Yea
 

Sounds like the Village I want. What village is this? You can PM me if you want. The clues you gave I think I found it.

IMO TV and specifically the VLS is a well-planned and controlled market with significant capital resources to sustain market, supply and interest rate shifts. As observed, the "lottery" is a way of creating competition between buyers by the seller (developer). Also, as observed by some on this BLOG there are two distinct markets, the MLS and VLS however where the MLS is open and consists of many independent (mostly) sellers while the VLS is not.

As someone who expects to purchase a home in TV, it's clear to me that TV is employing time proven marketing techniques developed by OPEC for oil (a commodity) and others such as the Diamond Market (a luxury product). In the case of the global diamond market prices are influenced by managing the release of rough diamonds to the market through a system called the "single channel" distribution, where only authorized buyers ("sightholders") could purchase diamonds directly from the supplier/cartel, effectively limiting supply and maintaining high prices.

Similarly, in the case of OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, influences global oil prices by collectively managing the supply of oil produced by its member nations, essentially controlling a significant portion of the world's oil production, which allows them to raise prices by cutting production when needed[/I][/B], and lower prices by increasing production when necessary.


In each case (Diamonds and Oil) there is truly no shortage of Oil (just willingness of suppliers) or Diamonds (to release existing supply) in the world, just a limited number of sources that control the supply creating the 'market'. It's all about who controls the market channel and by extension availability of "product" to the ultimate consumer of the product.

In the case of TV and the VLS, my options are limited, even in a buyers' market, so recognizing the market dynamics and what leverage I have is essential. I can control my willingness to make offers on a home(s) in a given village by selecting a model, location, 'New' or 'pre-owned'. Also, as interest rates rise, the number of baby boomers, and retirees' shifts/declines, carry costs increase (tax, material, fees, etc.) I would expect the supply of homes to increase as published in the MLS and VLS. We are seeing and published reports support that the actual sales price of homes offered through MLS are declining as measured by Year-Over-Year (YOY) sales price per square foot (SF) for a given property/type of property or expanding the quality of the offering, e.g., more extras, no bond, furnishing, view, features, etc.,. However, on the VLS being a more disciplined and controlled market as time goes on, we may either see fewer new homes being released as in the case of the lottery, or for those being offered lower offering prices on a SF basis.

In the final analysis I believe homes, love, and diamonds are very personal and emotional choice, TV created a luxury product that blends lifestyle with some features of a commodity, let's not confuse the characteristics of one with the other.

Too Big
 

Hardly the case. External markets influence the Villages in a myriad of ways. If homes with the same amount of square footage, amenities and other accesses located inside the Villages sell for half the price of new homes in the (Now much smaller) Villages market, the builder will have to offset pricing so they are still competitive. Labor and government are also large players in the real estate market. Used and Newsed priced homes will be noticed by buyers who want a piece of the Villages pie. The development has grown too big to control as you suggest.

The answer for them is to start a new Villages with differences in amenities and access. It’s really past due for them to do so. The market has already influenced the charging of “upgrades” which were once always part of the deal.

Just because the Enclave lots aren't listing on the Villages website at the moment, does not necessarily make them all sold. As of the end of November, according to the Lake County Property Appraiser, 34 of the 122 lots in the Enclave were still owned by the developer. Given how slowly these interior lots have been selling, I doubt all 34 have been sold since then.

Here's a drawing of the Enclave lots showing the developer owned lots (in orange) as of the end of November.

Shadowed
 

Almost every Florida builder is shadowing inventory right now.

Does the Lake County Property Appraiser shows lots that all lots that are under contract (sold), all lots that have closed, or only those lots that the sales have been recorded?

Just closed and the deed recorded. However, Lake County gets this done in a much more timely basis than Sumter. Based upon what I’ve seen, these lots are still not sold

So either the Developer is hiding them for some reason rather than selling them...

OR

... they are under contract, not available for sale, but not yet closed (perhaps not technically sold, but technically not available for sale to anyone else).

I think #36 might be on to something....lots of developers holding back inventory at the moment. We've only been seeing 1 or 2 of the interior lots in The Enclave being sold each month, so I doubt that all of these have suddenly gone under contract.