Villages Nearing Build-out
 

Hey everyone. There seems to be a lot of people I run into who still feel The Villages will build for many years to come. Then I go to a customer appreciation party and speak to not only my sales rep but other reps who had been invited and they say approximately 24 more months of building and then it'll all be re-sales. The eternal optimists will say 'yeah, that's been said a hundred times but The Villages buys more land and keeps going. All that land south of Hwy. 44 is vast and expansive. They'll just jump 44 and go all the way to the turnpike.'

My question is this: does anyone KNOW if any property south of 44 is owned by The Villages?

When you look over the years The Villages has gotten away from certain aspects. For example, the Transportation Department is privately operated. So is Hometown Property Management, the furniture stores, a portion of Citizen's First Bank, The Insurance companies, country club restaurants. The Design Department has all but been eliminated since everything is back to spec homes (you can't reserve a lot and build.)

My thought is this. I would imagine paying a leasing company to make sure all the commercial property is occupied to me would seem to be less work than being intimately involved in the day to day operation of developing. This is a privately owned company so anything can happen on any given day. It could all stop tomorrow (although we know it won't) but how do the optimists 'KNOW' The Villages won't stop in 2 years?

Thanks.

We don't have any optimists on TOTV, you'll have to ask somewhere else.

:throwtomatoes::throwtomatoes: Don't flame me, I'm kidding!

P.S. Welcome to the Forum!

I doubt anyone outside the family knows that answer. There is always more land but prices around The Villages have become problematic to any builder looking to profit. The other problem is acquiring a large tract of land. Appears to be lots of small tracts next to TV property.

Batman is correct. Nobody outside of the family knows for sure, but the developer has been saying, ever since I arrived in TV in 2000, that they would not build south of SR44. Sometimes you just have to take them at their word.

The few things we know for sure is Gary Morse is 78-79 years old and has reportedly sailed off to another project in Barbados. Whether the next generations are interested in more building, nobody knows. It does appear that they are tying up loose ends by selling off many assets over the past few years.

Many years ago we went to one of the meetings and they were showing a large map that looked like property just about to Bushnell. Of course that doesn't mean they will use it to make the Villages larger.

I suspect that The Developer is getting out of businesses in preparation for build out. Thinks like furniture stores, media, and transportation are simply worth more while TV is expanding and it makes sense to sell them while they are still "growth" companies rather than waiting for the to peak and decline.

I seem to recall hearing that The Developer would *never* *ever* build in Lake County again. Unless I'm mistaken, Fruitland Park is in Lake County.

I think that The Developer (including all of the younger generations) will keep building as long as there is demand and there is land available at the right price. There is clearly a reason for the agreement to provide the land for a Turnpike interchange as is planned. The Morse family may be nice people, but I don't see them making investments which won't pay off. Ditto renovation of Church on the Square and expansion of the hospital. How many folks are going to say "Gosh - all those extra seats in the Church on the Square. I think that I will buy a house in The Villages..."

That having been said, I doubt that Disney will sell their property to them, so there is a southern limit near Kissimmee. However, I am hoping that they move east to Cape Kennedy soon so that I can look at models in orbit.

Have a safe New Year's.

"tying up loose ends" is not the motivation for selling assets. They try to maintain a maximum number of employees. When that number is exceeded, they sell off a business. The number is 2,500. Impressive, and hard to handle.

I really don't have any clue what the developer is up to but certainly hope he continues building south of 44R. To have the developer 'present' I feel is good for all of us current villagers.

Oh, barefoot, you Canadians are always good for a chuckle. That's why TV is always more fun when you Canucks are in town.

Plus they all seem to be nice looking, eh?


Sweetie thinks they will continue building, I think they won't, but wish they would. I feel good when they are at the helm.

My thoughts are the powers to be will keep it going for as long as they can. As long as they can put together land deals it should keep going. Why stop a good thing?

Well, the word I just heard is that Morse just bought about 2,000 acres in Fruitland Park. Where exactly? I don't know, but nothing should surprise anyone.

Last year I heard that Morse purchased a large tract of land just east of Ocala. I've also heard that it's for his use for "canned hunts." I hope that's not true because that is horribly inhumane and unfair.

like GG and her husband we are split yes done no not done...but if i knew for sure i would also have the next lottery numbers

Hummm, I wasn't invited :MOJE_whot:

Often developers look at a development as a project with a beginning and end. Some do not intend to become the perpetual operator of facilities.

If it were me, once the development stopped I would sell off any assets related to the project and cash out. If I intended to stay in the development business, I would already have identified my next project... probably be in the planning stages of it.


I am not sure there is a lot to gain from staying an owner of those facilities other than headaches.

I think if I was the developer and worth about 15 billion, I would just keep the easiest and most profitable businesses with the fewest employees and headaches.

I think as long as select land that provides adequate continuity to TV becomes available the developer will continue to make aquisitions.

A good example is the old horse farm on SR 472/ Rainey Trail.
When the price was right the seller was happy to sell (multi-million dollars) and the developer was happy to pay it because it fit his parameters.

Bridgeport at Miona Shores isn't exactly contiguous to TV but they made it worl adequately......all Premier big price tag homes.

I predict the same target of aquisition will continue to occur in the future.

Well now friend, we been a prospecting this hear goldmine for nigh on 40 yars, and we keep on a gettin more an more gold outa hit, and hit's made me and my family rich for generations to come, and thar's no sign a any letup as them thar baby boomers is retiring at a purty fair clip, but I reckon we got enough money, and them future generations a Morses don't need nuthin to do, so I think we'll jest shut her down and not mine another nugget a gold, even though there is no end in sight to the potential to this here rich and productive mine.

What? You think?:shrug:

One can NEVER have too much gold. Methinks they keep a minin' it.

Warren Buffett is one of the richest men in America. Why is he still at it making money? Because that's his thing.

Only Gary Morse knows what is going to happen. Whether he will continue to acquire more land, or will his family carry on the tradition.

Just speculating here ....... but for some rich people, it stops becoming about the money, but the thrill of the game. We all know Warren Buffett has more money than he can possibly use or spend, and it's the thrill of the game. He has lived a modest lifestyle, and looks forward to getting up and making more money for himself, and his investors. I suspect Gary Morse does like to play the game for thrills, as he doesn't need more money.

It affects us, in that after build-out, is over...... whenever that may be, the price of resales will go up dramatically. If he continues building, the price of resales is going up, but maybe not as fast. Either way, we will win by having moved here.

The sooner, the better. IMHO

I think that the building will go on for quite some time. Gary Morse has three chrildren, Mark Morse, Jennifer Parr and Tracy Matthews. They all have jobs with several Villages companies. They, and many other family members are making their money from the Villages. I can't see Gary Morse making any abrupt stop and leaving most of his family without jobs. Just click on their names on the link below to see what Villages companies they all hold positions in. I think the family will continue to buy up land. Just my opinion.
Mark Morse - President for Morse-Sembler Villages #5, Inc.

They are currently building 542 new homes off of 301 and 466 in Oxford. To be clear it's not actually part of the Villages but intended to support the growing labor force and their housing needs. There are thousands of acres available very cheaply that they can continue to purchase and build if sales go well! it will also help with the build out of buffalo ridge for commercial purposes.

The answer is December 19, 2016.

Skip

Thanks
Retirement date set
December 18 2016
I do not want to miss the party

At Buena Vista it's only about a mile from 44 to the turnpike. "All the way to the turnpike" is not a very big jump.

There is a vast amount of land south of 44 and I don't know why they would stop building if they think they can sell houses.

Except that these people don't really need jobs. I suspect that these are people who are simply driven to keep working, creating and building, much like Donald Trump. The Donald and his family don;t really need jobs. They do what they do because of who they are. If it were me, I'd be traveling the world laying on beaches and having a great time. It always perplexes me why these people want all the headaches. Some people just need to keep going and so are just driven.

I think that if they stop building, someone else will take over. Hey, they can still come to the squares, pay for golf, and use the shopping, all the restaurants. They would have all the crews that the villages laid off and would build the same houses for less $. The bubble would burst. JMH

Not possible to have another builder continue on. Remember, Janet Tutt, District Manager works for The Villages of Lake-Sumter not us. She would not allow an extension without the Morse's OK. Which just won't happen.

Skip

I don't know WHO you are, Skip, or HOW you get your information but I have learned to trust it.

What I meant was that another developer will buy land and they will build. Lots of land for sale around TV.

Or, when (not if) the Morses cease building, the most profitable "public" property (which is, in fact, owned by the single developer) is sold (to various strip mall owners, investors, etc.), fragmenting the long-term goals for The Villages (which is now quite unified: happy residents, money for developer), and public spaces (with little profitable value, e.g. town squares) are transferred back to current residents to manage and maintain (upkeep, insurance, etc.), then taxes and infrastructure fees to current residents climb, and home prices fall. Another realistic possibility.

The biggest future risk I see is if there ever becomes a time where the residents in some governing form become responsible for "managing" the daily goings on of TV.

Like it or not the developer has a goal and manages a consistency that for the most part we all accept. And also for the most part very little we as residents can do or say to sway the direction the developer has set.

When/if the residents take over is when special interests, politics, etc creep into the system thus departing from the overall state of TV. Eventually the goals of managing TV result in changing priorities that depart from the good of the whole.

So let's hope for the involvement of the developer in some fashion continues well into the future.

True, billethkid.

Amen

:agree:

:agree: :bigbow:

The residents have already taken over some of the northern districts, and the mechanism is in place for that to happen all the way down to district #10. The fee/taxing system, and the administrative systems are in place to maintain the quality we now enjoy. All seem to be working fine.. Educate yourselves, folks. Learn about your government.

My answer is that none of us will live long enough to see the "final buildout." Not Gary Morse and not any of us on TOTV.

So true, Obi-wan.