The Villages Home Prices during 2008 Great Recession/ Views on Current Downside Risk
 

Hi All,

Hoping to get some feedback from those who have been around TV since the 2008/09 Great Recession, I have been getting "pro" feedback that the 08-09 housing crash nationally, and in Florida specifically, essentially had zero impact on the Villages market, that TV was a rare exception and was essentially unscathed, can that possibly be true?

The same source also indicates that I am practically assured that any new home that I buy now will be worth ~$100k more in a year once the neighborhood/area is completed and more mature. As great as that would be, I am not drinking that kool-aid (yet, lol!), especially as it seems the market has been softening a bit over the last year (can it be?).

Given your experience, and how far the market has come, would you even be concerned about downside risk? I am buying as a snowbird owner/resident but also hope to recoup expenses by hosting for the remainder of the year via short term rentals through a property management company. I'd rather not buy at a market peak, I would just rent for now if I thought that was the case.

We was looking in the villages in 2008 and signed our contract February of 2009. We closed May 1st 2009. We was looking in Tennessee and North Carolina also. The Villages slowed down on sales, but the prices was holding and only being discounted about 5% from the asking price. It was scary at the time as this was the only place that houses was not dropping in price and we wanted to buy. That was unreal compared to the market in Georgia. I seen houses auctioned off for $30 Thousand dollars. Those same house sold 7 years later for $130 Thousand, Now those houses are selling for $300 thousand. Facts. The only advantage in early 2009 in the villages was we got to put a small deposit down to hold a lot on the pond for 24 hours to make sure we wanted it. We was told we had a year to build. Then we was told we could get 5% off on the house and options we wanted also if we signed a contract to build. We did and the house was built in 50 days. My neighbor said when he bought he had two hours to decide if he wanted the house he was shown and if not the next in line got the same offer. I understand your reservations, But our Only regret is not coming sooner.

Look at the sales data from the Villages to make you guess as to what the future may hold. We purchased a new house in Dec. of 2014.

Year sold average price

2001 2,074 156,000
2002 2,260 163,000
2003 3,329 168,000
2004 3,955 204,000
2005 4,263 232,000
2006 3,935 257,000
2007 2,403 251,000
2008 2,236 231,000
2009 2,115 229,000
2010 2,208 231,000
2011 2,307 241,000
2012 2,850 244,000
2013 3,419 271,000
2014 2,601 304,000
2015 2,294 304,000
2016 1,966
2017 2,231
2018 2,134 281,000
2019 2,429 307,000
2020 2,452
2021 4,004
2022 3,923
2023 3,029 410,000

Is this new houses ? However here is what the data provides:

House prices decreased by 11 %
House sales decreased by a whopping 46 %.

Thank you NP, appreciate that feedback, that is amazing!

Thanks for these stats Rusty, very helpful and I agree, those numbers showed a lot of resilience considering what most other areas of the state and county underwent! Seems like most people just held their ground and I would imagine new construction slowed down a lot.

If you rent, you not only get no profit from your investment, you lose 100% of your investment. You never see it again.

If your goal is to make money, then don't ever EVER rent, anything, ever. It's a guaranteed loss.

There is no guarantee that your purchase here will increase in value at all, let alone by $100,000 in a year. It also depends on what house you're looking at. A home that cost you $980,000 to buy, might certainly go up in value by $100k in a year. A home that cost you $200,000 to buy, will probably not go up in value that much in a year, or even in two years.

Properties in the Villages SEEM to have a better chance of stability in value. And don't forget - if the property you buy this year goes up $100k, and you decide to sell it to make that extra $100k - well you'll be out of a home, and need to buy another one. Problem is - the value of the other one will have gone up as well. So you might end up losing in the end.

Real estate futures is not a good investment if you're looking at a retirement home that you actually intend to live in, even part of the year.

Good point, OrangeB, with regard to renting. It is just that, in my case, we'd only initially snowbird for 2 months out of the year, and if TV home prices were declining, it might be better to "lose" 2 months of paying rent rather than see a larger (maybe $10k-$20k+) paper loss on a purchase, not to mention the responsibilities (headache) of long distance ownership to boot.

Our first stay was 2007, houses were selling in hours, and we chose to wait out the craziness. We had family here so spent good amount of time, finally bought in 2010, no discounts, second house 2012, no discounts, 2014 preowned.

Owning three homes here at the same time, we had zero problems finding long term tenants. Profits from selling far and above any other region. One just needs to decide can you sit on any house, until market swings back to the crazy 2007, and 2020 prices

Since you'll be living somewhere else for 10 months out of the year, paying taxes, not eligible for any homesteader or senior or veterans breaks down here, you're probably better off just renting. In fact, if you choose to rent - you could rent furnished places that are managed by a solid property management company. And switch around every year or every few years. Find an area you really love, so that if you decide to live here year-round, you'll have already narrowed down the type of home, area you want to live in, activities that you are most drawn to, prices of homes, etc. etc.

Op, nothing will tell what will happen in the future. How could we predict the Covid problem? Or what caused the financial failures in 2008? Who knows what’s next. My suggestion, if you want to be a landlord go ahead and buy. If you don’t, rent for two months every year.

It is possible to make more money in investments than real estate. This is true today because interest rates are high and stock market is soaring. When interest rates are low, you should buy real estate.

We sold our home south of 44 for a sizeable profit. We are now renting. Our social security checks cover ALL of our expenses. As an added bonus, we have no maintenance. Our lives are carefree.

Our money is secure and earning high interest. We are waiting to see what happens with real estate in the Villages before we buy. Right now, new home prices are falling and preowned homes are sitting. IMO not a good time to buy a home.

Thanks All, your feedback is much appreciated

Where and when
 

It is all about location, model and the date of purchase. A majority of homes are interior “kissing lanais “. If those are in a new area I wouldn’t be looking for any large return any time in the foreseeable future because of the large inventory of new homes. If you buy a view lot and custom home, you have a much better chance of low loss or nice gains in funds.

If you are buying, I would use Realtor.com to get quick numbers on purchase prices, years and overall history. It is a buyers market today. You can and should demand inspections etc to make sure you get what you pay for. Square footage numbers and location tell a lot about what you should pay.

Even though the TV is a good bet, there is no sure thing, I owned a number of rentals in N.Y. over the years and the market can turn for a number of reasons. There is a somewhat funny movie titled "The Big Short". I would watch it if I was you.