Given the inflation decline, Fed should be done hiking. . .
 

Looks like federal reserve interest rates have peaked, and given the inflation trend at the moment, which is much slower and getting near fed targets. However, fiscal spending is still trending higher, like the sumter county tax rates on non homesteaded homes, and longer term interest rates may continue to rise with the continued increased fiscal spending, which is not good for mortgage rates.

So for those like myself still in 2 year bills, rolling out in duration to 5 year notes when it gets higher than the 2 year rate would be a good interest income strategy.

and remember that the future is always uncertain,
and sometimes more uncertain than at other times,
and that it can change in a flash for individuals and economies.

I agree, I wanna move my cash from my money market account into 4 and 5 year CD 's. Why do you choose treasury notes over CD 's ?

Inflation decline???? Just got our homeowners renewal, property tax bill, auto insurance renewal, 2024 health insurance renewal notice, went to the grocery store, and filled up the oil tank. Inflation appears to be accelerating, not declining. Food prices alone appear to be on a non stop upward spiral. I can see how the powers that be need to massage the data to create the false impression that inflation is declining. The cost of paying the interest alone on the out of control national debt has risen to over a trillion dollars per year.

Inflation and price gouging about 1,000 feet or so apart, Publix extra large eggs $5.99dz, Aldis extra large eggs $1.12dz.
We are experiencing GREED!

take a breath! I think you just hyperventilated with your current analysis of annual taxes, which I am gratefully thankful, as well as you are only seeing the FL geography and state/local effects. (remember, FL is a third world country in most all governmental aspects). Lets parse the words carefully:

The fed is done hiking rates due to the national government inflation calculations.
The rent equivalent portion of housing prices was one of the last rising components, and as evidenced from the house pricing discussions, that component should stop rising fairly soon.

The federal deficit funding is another issue, and that additional funding will cause the longer term interest rates to potentially rise, and putting the yield curve back into its normal upward sloping curve, with the current fed funds rate anchoring the curve. I fully expect longer term interest rates to rise, and soon due to the next 700B funding tranch coming next week? i think.

now, i am long oil and expected the middle east conflict to do something to crude / diesel supply, but without any super cold air in the northern hemisphere or any other supply interruptions, etc, the most obvious inflation generator isn't happening. Trucking companies are having a slowdown, which will keep diesel from having a supply crunch.

So currently, just sitting here waiting to see how fiscal funding affects interest rates, and expecting a slow deterioration of business conditions, with the increasing inability to pass on costs to the consumer, and hoping that oil will reverse a bit as the first cold air hits somewhere. Actually SG&A staff needs salary cuts, particularly sr mgmt, but that's my opinion. .

and remember that the future is always uncertain,
and sometimes more uncertain than at other times,
and that it can change in a flash for individuals and economies.

Perception, confirmation bias, media frenzy all play a role in what you think is happening vs what is really happening. I chose to show you oil prices as it is cut and dry. This is the straight forward chart of crude oil price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate. Note that the present day, Nov 7 it is at 80.85

That is the same as in Nov 2021, the same as Nov 2014. Now in Nov 2014 it was a huge drop from a high of over 120 in 2011.

If you are interested in more facts, US oil production in the most recent week was the highest ever. You read that right. The US in producing more oil now than at any previous time.

I also show you the chart of Florida gasoline prices. The price per gallon is in Oct 2023 a whopping 10 cents higher than Oct 2021. It will be lower once the November data is released. Yet somehow many people believe fuel prices are racing upward.

Agree 100%. Forgot to mention, you do not have to check out yourself but do have to "bag" your own groceries. Noted that some Publixes are starting self check out.

Yes, please listen to what you've been told... there isn't inflation, there isn't inflation, there isn't inflation. What a crock, prices are rising constantly and in leaps. If the Fed can't get a handle on what we are paying for commodities, taxes, wages and a multitude of items, most of the population will be on the government dole. It's a mess out there.

Publix is having a sale on Nellie's Free Range eggs for only $3.99. They're large, not extra large. But they have around 25% more nutritional value than the white factory farm eggs. They also bake better, and taste better, and smell better.

They run around $6/dozen at Walmart for Nellie's. But that's a pretty stable price, free range and pasture raised tend to be more expensive, but their prices also stay pretty stable. They don't get the disease problems that factory hens have. Whenever there's a salmonella scare or a bird flu or other sickness at the factories, the prices go sky high. But the small farm free range/pasture raised stay the same price as always. Expensive, but worth it.

I’m going to go to one of the free lunches. They know what to do with my money :$:. Take if from me :wave:

Got my gas for $2.85 this week. Pretty sure that's a lot cheaper than it was last year. Or even 6 months ago.

So you comparing inflation to oil market. Funny crud oil goes up and down but daily living prices don’t follow same pattern.

No you experienced convince and quality.

So do you think that will bring some prices down?

Read everything in the original post to which I am replying and what I wrote.

There was a complaint that inflation is out of control and as evidence we were told how much more he was paying for his fill up. I very clearly replied to that complaint which is demonstrably wrong. I presented charts for both the price of gasoline in Florida over several years and the price of oil over several years. No inflation. Nada, none, zilch.

Inflation and daily living prices as you chose to label it do not follow the crude [not crud] oil price. Correct. When crude dropped off the cliff during the Covid shutdown, we did not see deflation. All I pointed out was that using oil costs to prove inflation is out of control is completely bogus. Got it now?

If you want to know if inflation is out of control first you need to define what factors or commodities or services are in your inflation measure. The federal government does this and you can select among many different inflation measures.