Slowdown or recession?
 

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Important article on Page A9 today (Sunday)

It must be important as the same article is also on page A19
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If one did not hear the words slow down or recession what would they have to say about the economy based on their current experience, life style, spending/saving.

Most would not know any difference.

It is a numbers/trends/political/media driven guessing game that is not detectable in most of our lives.

Therein lies the major disconnect...of so many people here. :oops:

We really do live in a "bubble" and any attempt at inferring that our (mostly) retired lives, from a period where pensions existed and there wasn't nearly as huge a disparity in an average company's employees wages and the very highest paid in the company, is like purposely sticking ones head in the sand and screaming..."things are great and all is well." :ohdear:

The last recession resulted in several trillions of dollars of lost wealth. Some recovered, some didn't I would say for those that didn't it was significant.

In my case, I lost my 401k, my credit rating, home and wife. 10 years later I have almost recovered most, but not all.

So, yes in most of YOUR lives it may not have been detectable. But for myself and MANY others lives it was very detectable. Politics had NOTHING to do with it, economics did.

In 2008, the "great recession" was supposedly caused by mortgage defaults. Yet over 94% of Americans with mortgages paid and continued to pay on time. How in the heck did only a 6% default rate cause that mess? I suspected then and suspect now that other factors were at work.

Now we have the media and talking heads going on and on about another pending recession despite record low unemployment, low interest rates, and a healthy consumer base.. As one commenter on CNBC put it Friday, "We're just talking ourselves into a recession". And we will if this keeps up.

CNM, I agree. There is so much of a prevailing attitude of “I got mine. Too bad ya don’t got yours.”

I do not understand why there are those who cannot acknowledge that the system does not work like it once did for regular hardworking people.

Remember the old “3-legged stool” for retirement that so many of us are of an age to remember. As I recall, the 3 legs on the stool were Social Security. Pension. Individual investments and savings.

Some of us knew how to make the 401s and 403s work for us while we were still working. Many had the opportunity to tax defer more money because of not having to pay through the nose for health insurance premiums, deductibles, etc. which, now, even those with good jobs have to absorb more of.

Many of us did quite well when selling our houses, especially after the cap gains law changed in the late 90s where we did not have to reinvest primary residence profits in more expensive homes and could leave a closing table with the next house already paid for and a chunk of tax free change in our pockets. (I know that law is still in effect but I think the early Boomers and Beyond were the ones who reaped the most profits from real estate.)

We had a lot of advantages over what the next generation(s) can expect. (I wrote a dissertation about that yesterday, somewhere around here.)

Anyway, Cold, just wanted to say I, too, don’t get how people do not get it.

:agree: I've thought for a while that the media is talking us into a recession.
And I'm not in the Bubble right now, I'm up north for six months.

We got ours and they can get theirs but it is going to take some new skills like doing without and not buying unnecessary things and learning to save when they don't have much money. Not going on vacation, not going to musical events, and not having expensive food either out or at home. Not updating expensive phones, not getting tattoos, not buying on time.

In fact that is just how we did it.

Actually, Gracie, you will be surprised that I partially agree with what you said in the above quote — but only to the extent that what you say about bad money habits applies only to some of the people all of the time. But broad brush painting with generalizations is not something I ever agree with.

Overall, I remain of the opinion that the deck is stacked against generations behind us.

While the Orwellian talkers on television tout the unemployment rate, nobody ever talks about what kind of jobs those are and if there are healthcare benefits. Then they talk about the wonders of corporate tax cuts — which corps are using a large percentage of for stock buybacks. Thus, the market.

We are being had. And it has been oh soooo easy.

My dear. You just used three in your defense of not agreeing with broad brush generalizations.

The tax cuts were to level the playing field and make U.S. Corporations equal to their global competition, in part. U.S. Corporations, "big business" is often spoken about as the devil incarnate, and usually by the segment of the population who did not ever work for private enterprise.

There are all kinds of factors at play in this kind of discussion. All kinds of biases and attitudes. I have yet to meet a person who has been a teacher in public schools for more than ten years who EVER sided with big business. I have yet to meet anyone who has earned a good living working for big business who didn't support the tax cuts.

People focus on unemployment, but seldom mention employment rate which is at a all time low.

Employment rate is at a low because people are working multiple jobs to cover the same expenses that a single job used to cover. When 20 people are working a total of 34 40-hour workweeks, the "unemployment rate" goes down.

You really should start doing your own research and try to think for yourself, instead of just listening...to whatever sources are feeding you the lies you spew. :oops:

Tax Cuts

Getting back to the topic, I am of the opinion we will see a recession within the next couple of years. The harbinger of the recession will be corporate debt. Companies are taking on debt that they will not be able to payoff, refinance or issue bonds. This will trigger a collapse in the markets. I am definitely not a financial expert, but the ones I read and trust have been taking about a down turn long before the talking heads on CNBC or MSNBC.

Problem is in October 2017 the country was told that this tax cut would give each family about $4000 per year and wage growth would occur instantly, and despite what economist said, we were told it was fake news that corporations were the only ones to gain.

An interesting spin that this post puts on it.