Mortality Rate of the Virus
 

There are posters on this forum that have given us many many statistics about this coronavirus, enough to make my head explode. Those numbers just go in one ear and out the other with me. But having said that, I never thought the amount of "testing" had anything to do with the actual morality rate of a population.

I found this article from the CDC which makes the calculation of mortality rate more understandable to me. End result is mortality rate is direct correlation of amount of deaths with the amount of the population, NOT the amount of testing of a population.

Principles of Epidemiology | Lesson 3 - Section 3

This simple calculation explains why the United States is NOT "the best" in the world regarding the mortality rate for Covid-19. I always knew "cases" had nothing to do with the mortality rate. It seems imperative to me that our country's mortality rate for this virus be explained in these simple terms to the person who is responsible for all Americans.

Someone will be along shorrly to refute that method of collating, if it does not fit with the agenda!!:icon_wink:

I don't know why so many people want to minimize the facts. I don't know why so many people think that Covid-19 is a hoax. I see it on both sides of the aisle and everywhere. It is foolish if you are older to have a driveway party during this time.

I saw in the news last night that thousands of people had rented a huge Beverly Hills Mansion to have a party. One dead, four others injured in Los Angeles mansion party shooting

You are confusing mortality rate with IFR (infection fatality rate) The mortality rate for USA is all cause deaths divided by total population.

For instance in 2018
Number of deaths: 2,813,503
Death rate: 863.8 deaths per 100,000 population

If you were to calculate current mortality rate of covid 19 in USA
Number of deaths: 159,128
Death rate: 48 deaths per 100,000 (or 0.00048 overall)

Nobody is hiding this information, it can be found for any country in the world. World in Data lists covid 19 death rate per million for every country in the world. Just click on any country. USA is not the worst in the world, currently 8th highest rate.

Total confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people - Our World in Data

Epidemiologists look at the Infection Fatality Rate which is total deaths divided by number of cases or infections. To make this accurate, they have to estimate the number of asymptomatic cases never tested and add that to the number of confirmed cases.

CDC currently states the IFR for covid 19 is 0.0065

COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios | CDC

Thanks to covid most all other causes of death are way down. Good news.

Cases have everything to do with the mortality rate and here is why. In countries where there is less testing, fewer cases are discovered. Because of this, people are dying of Covid and those deaths are not recognized as Covid deaths because the people have never been tested so they are not considered a Covid death.

Here we have people that are dying of underlying conditions that have been exacerbated by Covid. In some countries if someone who has not been tested and found positive dies of a heart attack, it is listed as a heart attack death even though it may have been a Covid related death.

We also are counting the death of anyone who has Covid as a Covid death regardless of the cause of death. There have been people with Covid killed in car accidents that are listed as Covid deaths. I doubt that any other country is doing that.

Some countries such as Turkey and India, by the way, claim that they have fewer people dying because they are treating Covid patients with hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin and zinc.

I know that testing has shown these meds to have no effect, but some doctors in the US and other countries claim to have has success with them.

I honestly don't know what to think.

Maybe because they do not pay as well sooooooo.....

Thanks to covid most all other causes of death are way down. Good news.
Maybe because they do not pay as well sooooooo.....



or....it DOES NOT fit the Media's narrative...
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According to the CDC Measures of Mortality, what you are commenting about is the "Death-to-case ratio". That involves "guestimating" how many asymptomatics are out there. Other countries do not test as much as the US, so using those stats is not really relevant.

Deaths per capita is a better marker for the mortality rate of this virus. That is comparing apples to apples with other countries.

So very true

Sorry but no. Deaths per capita is a better way to compare the impact of the virus on various countries. The mortality rate of this virus, or IFR is always calculated by deaths divided by cases. Ask any epidemiologist, including the CDC which calculates this rate on the link I provided above.

Yes the amount of testing per capita affects the IFR, if you test at a lower rate your IFR will be higher, if you test at a higher rate your IFR will be lower.

The death per capita rate also has problems and is not always apples to apples. USA and some countries count any death where deceased tested positive for virus as a covid 19 death, even if they died in a traffic accident or were struck with lightning. Even with no test, if Doctor suspects death due to covid 19, death is coded as covid 19. Some countries only count deaths FROM covid, not WITH covid. Some countries do not include covid deaths from nursing homes, they only count deaths that occur in hospitals and not at homes.

The best way to count actual covid deaths is by measuring excess deaths in a given country. Most countries know their average deaths per year from all causes, so a spike in deaths over that average can be assumed in 2020 to be from covid 19.

Read this article with some charts to understand excess deaths better. As you will see, there are many countries doing much worse per capita than USA

Covid-19 data - Tracking covid-19 excess deaths across countries | Graphic detail | The Economist

I realize now that you posted this thread in response to something you know who said. He was wrong which ever death rate you look at, but I don't pay attention to what any politicians say about this virus, USA does not have the best mortality rate per capita or IFR, but we are definitely not the worst either. I look at the science and numbers only.

Saw in the news
 

To which "facts" do you refer? Of course, Covid-19 is not a hoax. It's a serious epidemic and needs to be taken seriously. Reasonable people should exercise responsible and reasonable care to reduce the risk off contracting and/or spreading the virus.

That said, what we've seen in America over the last five months has been neither reasonable nor responsible. As the "facts" continue to change, the shotgun approach(s) proffered by Fauci, and often implemented as law, have been draconian. Worse, dissenting medical opinions, and that's exactly what they are, from both "sides," have been ridiculed and ignored, pretty much like anyone who disagrees with the religion of global warming.

So -
Should thinking, responsible people exercise discression when engaging with others, especially strangers? Of course we should.

Should businesses, open to the public but not "deemed essential" (by whom?) be forces out of business, and their employees lose their jobs? I think not.

Should we surrender our liberty while we "wait for a vaccine?" Not me.

But... but... in 2018 Death rate from Covid was 0. Why not compare it to death rates in WW1 and WW2? Or any other causes of death.

We already compare the Covid tests to the period before it even existed as a step forward....why not ?

What I am trying to say is that it doesn’t matter to me what the Covid death rate is compared to any other death rate. It is in ADDITION to other death rates unless someone can show how for example, lung cancer death rates have plunged since people with lung cancer are now dying of Covid instead.