Talk of The Villages Florida

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-   The Villages, Florida, General Discussion (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/villages-florida-general-discussion-73/)
-   -   Is anyone else surprised (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/villages-florida-general-discussion-73/anyone-else-surprised-304987/)

rbrooks817 04-08-2020 12:31 PM

That is a despicable comment.

manaboutown 04-08-2020 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr Winston O Boogie jr (Post 1742809)
Testing is only useful to health care professionals in determining where the virus is. Only the positive results are useful. What we don't know is how many people who have tested negative have picked up the virus since being tested.

I believe that the only way to live now is to assume that everyone that you see has it.

This seems kinda scary to me, testing positive after one recovers. 51 recovered coronavirus patients test positive again in South Korea

And then this back where it all started. Wuhan lifts coronavirus lockdown, still struggles to recover from pandemic | Fox News

rodhos 04-08-2020 01:22 PM

coronavirus in The Villages
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr Winston O Boogie jr (Post 1742129)
that the coronavirus hasn't spread more rapidly in The Villages?

I'm not minimizing the threat as I feel that the threat is huge. It's just that I thought that when it got here it would spread like wildfire. I thought the hospitals would be overwhelmed in a matter of days.

Maybe it's because the first cases got here around the same time as the Governor's stay at home order.

I've personally met and chatted with some people here in TV that think the everyone is over reacting and that it's not a big deal. I witnessed myself people in a supermarket standing within inches of one another and talking into each other's face.

I guess (hope) that these cases are few and far between but I really thought that once it got here we were going to see thousands of cases and hundreds of deaths within a matter of weeks.

It appears that we're doing a great job of mitigating. Way to go!!! Keep up the good work.

According to the Florida Dept. of Health web site there are 45 confirmed KNOWN cases in the two zip codes making up the majority of The Villages (32162 & 32163). That's half of the 90 cases in Sumter County.

golfing eagles 04-08-2020 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rodhos (Post 1742826)
According to the Florida Dept. of Health web site there are 45 confirmed KNOWN cases in the two zip codes making up the majority of The Villages (32162 & 32163). That's half of the 90 cases in Sumter County.

and half the population

Shadow8IA 04-08-2020 02:05 PM

It'll be interesting to see when they test for antibodies if anyone actually had it before the first reported case in the U.S. on Jan 31. Since they tracked it so well I don't see how anyone had it before then but it's hard to know. I know flu type B was really nasty this year.



Quote:

Originally Posted by manaboutown (Post 1742156)
The incubation period is quite long and 80% don't get very sick so it may be too early to tell.

I was just speaking with a friend who while visiting her grandchildren in WA over Thanksgiving last year became very ill and even lost her sense of taste and smell. Several of the children got pneumonia. She now believes they had the Wuhan virus. Many Chinese were visiting or living in the area and she believes it got there through some of them.


coffeebean 04-08-2020 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rbrooks817 (Post 1742810)
That is a despicable comment.

Please supply a quote. I don't know which comment you are referring to. Thanks.

zendog3 04-08-2020 02:37 PM

coved19 is way overblown. Not a big deal at all. Just ask Boris Johnson. I am sure he will tell you as soon as he gets out of intensive care, which he probably will do as he is much younger than you.

If we don't come up with a vaccine soon, about 50% of people will get it sooner or later. If you are one of that 50% , and you are my age, you will have between 15% to 20% chance of dying. Whether or not it is a big deal depends on how lucky you think you are. BTW social distancing and hand washing are will not stop anyone from getting the disease, it will "flatten the curve" or slow the spread in hope that they will find a vaccine before you contact the virus, or that there will be a ventilator for you in the hospital when you get there.

golfing eagles 04-08-2020 04:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zendog3 (Post 1742868)
coved19 is way overblown. Not a big deal at all. Just ask Boris Johnson. I am sure he will tell you as soon as he gets out of intensive care, which he probably will do as he is much younger than you.

If we don't come up with a vaccine soon, about 50% of people will get it sooner or later. If you are one of that 50% , and you are my age, you will have between 15% to 20% chance of dying. Whether or not it is a big deal depends on how lucky you think you are. BTW social distancing and hand washing are will not stop anyone from getting the disease, it will "flatten the curve" or slow the spread in hope that they will find a vaccine before you contact the virus, or that there will be a ventilator for you in the hospital when you get there.

a) very optimistic, thank you
b) your numbers are way overblown
c) If those measures didn't stop anyone from getting the virus, they wouldn't flatten the curve at all----think about it

blueash 04-08-2020 06:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zendog3 (Post 1742868)
BTW social distancing and hand washing are will not stop anyone from getting the disease, it will "flatten the curve" or slow the spread

This is a fundamental misunderstanding of flatten the curve. While the basic model of flattening has as its goal lowering the peak and does not anticipate fewer final cases, models of social distancing accomplish two goals. The goals of social distancing are to both have fewer people ill at the same time AND have fewer people ultimately become infected. The simplest explanation is if you take a single individual. If she never comes into contact with an adequate exposure, she never gets sick. The way to have her not be exposed involves keeping her away from known and unknown spreaders.

Hand washing obviously reduces the total ill people. It is no different for catching Covid from what your hands touched or catching Salmonella from raw chicken. Hand washing results in decreased transfer of germs from hand to nose, eyes, and mouth.

bpascani 04-08-2020 06:44 PM

We are pretty new here, but, what I see is, that many people take the health of all seriously (while some roll their eyes, at least or a while). I'm proud of these folks that take this seriously, without panic, just doing what they feel will help themselves, and hopefully others, safe. The voice of example can be loud!

Villageswimmer 04-08-2020 07:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blueash (Post 1742949)
This is a fundamental misunderstanding of flatten the curve. While the basic model of flattening has as its goal lowering the peak and does not anticipate fewer final cases, models of social distancing accomplish two goals. The goals of social distancing are to both have fewer people ill at the same time AND have fewer people ultimately become infected. The simplest explanation is if you take a single individual. If she never comes into contact with an adequate exposure, she never gets sick. The way to have her not be exposed involves keeping her away from known and unknown spreaders.

Hand washing obviously reduces the total ill people. It is no different for catching Covid from what your hands touched or catching Salmonella from raw chicken. Hand washing results in decreased transfer of germs from hand to nose, eyes, and mouth.

Thanks for your clear explanation.

Carlsondm 04-08-2020 09:22 PM

We are only at the beginning of the curve. It will rise sharply soon as the virus colonies and deaths surge. The surge is what we hopefully are controlling. Right now the prediction is that we may return to normal life sometime in June, but only if we follow our plan together and don't allow the virus to take control again. With five nurses in the family, I am reminded frequently to stay home, avoid crowds, and just before the surge to wear gloves and a mask (@20-50%) when going out. We know little about the virus transmission at this point. It could be airborne at it's peak. Who wants to be a guinea pig.

yankygrl 04-09-2020 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carlsondm (Post 1743017)
We are only at the beginning of the curve. It will rise sharply soon as the virus colonies and deaths surge. The surge is what we hopefully are controlling. Right now the prediction is that we may return to normal life sometime in June, but only if we follow our plan together and don't allow the virus to take control again. With five nurses in the family, I am reminded frequently to stay home, avoid crowds, and just before the surge to wear gloves and a mask (@20-50%) when going out. We know little about the virus transmission at this point. It could be airborne at it's peak. Who wants to be a guinea pig.

We do know the method of transmission - it is droplet spread. How far those droplets go when you speak or cough is probably the most indeterminent part of it. We also know, for the most part, how long the virus "lives" on certain objects.

Travelhunter 04-11-2020 10:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carlsondm (Post 1743017)
We are only at the beginning of the curve. It will rise sharply soon as the virus colonies and deaths surge. The surge is what we hopefully are controlling. Right now the prediction is that we may return to normal life sometime in June, but only if we follow our plan together and don't allow the virus to take control again. With five nurses in the family, I am reminded frequently to stay home, avoid crowds, and just before the surge to wear gloves and a mask (@20-50%) when going out. We know little about the virus transmission at this point. It could be airborne at it's peak. Who wants to be a guinea pig.

The scary and frustrating part is we keep getting different direction
Don’t wear masks
Do wear masks

Dr Winston O Boogie jr 04-11-2020 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travelhunter (Post 1744470)
The scary and frustrating part is we keep getting different direction
Don’t wear masks
Do wear masks

I think that we are all, including the experts, are in uncharted waters here and they are learning new things all the time.

I recall hearing that the droplets were too large or heavy to remain in the air on their own. Now some are saying that might not be true.

I think that the experts are giving us the best information that they have available at the time.

No one ever said that you could wear a face mask if you wanted.

striveforhealth 04-12-2020 07:18 PM

The "Wuhan Virus"??
:ohdear:

Quote:

Originally Posted by manaboutown (Post 1742156)
The incubation period is quite long and 80% don't get very sick so it may be too early to tell.

I was just speaking with a friend who while visiting her grandchildren in WA over Thanksgiving last year became very ill and even lost her sense of taste and smell. Several of the children got pneumonia. She now believes they had the Wuhan virus. Many Chinese were visiting or living in the area and she believes it got there through some of them.


B767drvr 04-12-2020 07:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by striveforhealth (Post 1745290)
The "Wuhan Virus"??
:ohdear:


The first documentary movie on CCP virus, Tracking Down the Origin of the Wuhan Coronavirus - YouTube

Kerry Azz 04-15-2020 08:01 AM

Keep drinking the koolaid,

Kerry Azz 04-15-2020 08:08 AM

Keep drinking the koolaid
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 1742475)
The more the virus is overhyped, the more lives will be saved, the more the virus is ignored, the more deaths will happen.

Managing large diverse populations with information alone is very difficult.

There are videos from china of welding doors to apartments shut, which culture would you prefer? forcibly restrained or by individual choice?

sportsguy

Overhyped? Hopefully your a former coach, people that believe this isn’t serious are an extreme danger to our safety as well as to their own. Your door should be welded shut,:MOJE_whot:

manaboutown 04-15-2020 09:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by striveforhealth (Post 1745290)
The "Wuhan Virus"??
:ohdear:

Yes: Wuhan virus, Chinese virus, China virus, ChiCom virus, COVID-19, different names, same virus. Call it what you like.

CoachKandSportsguy 04-15-2020 10:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kerry Azz (Post 1746534)
Overhyped? Hopefully your a former coach, people that believe this isn’t serious are an extreme danger to our safety as well as to their own. Your door should be welded shut,:MOJE_whot:

The point is the non linear assymetrical effect of information presentation and information effects. . . ie, Heisenberg effect, meaning the more information presented, the more the outcome is changed. Your decoding of the word "overhyped" is not the same as my intention of concept. I did not intend for you to interpret that the current environment was overhyped, but I did intend for the interpretation to be on a relative basis versus ignoring the virus as the other extreme, not the more absolute judgemental interpretation which some may interpret.

Its tough to know which interpretation people will take, relative or absolute, which is a personality trait, from a post without knowing who will read and anyone can read. . .

sportsguy

600th Photo Sq 04-15-2020 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 1746699)
The point is the non linear assymetrical effect of information presentation and information effects. . . ie, Heisenberg effect, meaning the more information presented, the more the outcome is changed. Your decoding of the word "overhyped" is not the same as my intention of concept. I did not intend for you to interpret that the current environment was overhyped, but I did intend for the interpretation to be on a relative basis versus ignoring the virus as the other extreme, not the more absolute judgemental interpretation which some may interpret.

Its tough to know which interpretation people will take, relative or absolute, which is a personality trait, from a post without knowing who will read and anyone can read. . .

sportsguy

After reading your post I decided to set my alarm clock for ( 5:30 pm ) that is my " Happy Hour " . And relax with the following.

Michelob Ultra, ( Ice Cold) , Popcorn, Peanuts, Pretzels.

Put my feet up and watch " Silence of the Lambs ", and " The Wild Bunch ".

Thanks for your post ! :doggie: :popcorn:

JoMar 04-15-2020 01:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by devorejh (Post 1742429)
We’re not overwhelmed with it because the whole thing has been overhyped. The models they used to predict the number of deaths were seriously flawed. In the end more people will die of the flu this year then will die of COVID-19. I’m not saying you shouldn’t take it serious but it’s not turning out to be what we were initially told. Everyone’s free to believe what they need to believe

Old argument that has been disproved for months but as you said, everyone's free to believe what they need to believe. COVID 19 is not the flu, so the comparison has no valididty. With COVID 19 you must have faith that your immune system is strong enough to fight it since that is the only treatment. There is no vaccine to help your immune system so roll the dice. Just please respect those that don't believe as you do and keep your distance.

600th Photo Sq 04-15-2020 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 600th Photo Sq (Post 1746757)
After reading your post I decided to set my alarm clock for ( 5:30 pm ) that is my " Happy Hour " . And relax with the following.

Michelob Ultra, ( Ice Cold) , Popcorn, Peanuts, Pretzels.

Put my feet up and watch " Silence of the Lambs ", and " The Wild Bunch ".

Thanks for your post ! :doggie: :popcorn:

Well just a follow up :

Enjoyed my movies and snacks . I'm off to bed .

Looking forward to your next post ( hic up )


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