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-   The Villages, Florida, General Discussion (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/villages-florida-general-discussion-73/)
-   -   The curve has been flattened (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/villages-florida-general-discussion-73/curve-has-been-flattened-306313/)

Heather296 05-11-2020 07:35 AM

People HAVE forgotten that. It drives me crazy. Some people saying things should be shut down until there’s a vaccine. This virus is highly contagious, not highly deadly. 🤦*♀️

Beyond The Wall 05-11-2020 07:44 AM

Go to ANY STATES website for stats.

Jacob85 05-11-2020 07:46 AM

Flattening the curve does not mean the virus is gone, so this is correct. I for one don’t want to be one of those people hospitalized with better treatment because that doesn’t mean you will survive. I guess that’s why the death rate predicted has gone up.

TandHSTAR@AOL.com 05-11-2020 07:51 AM

Thank you. Now we can go back to being normal? We still have to be vigilant and practice safety first.

karostay 05-11-2020 08:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swoop (Post 1762735)
Recheck what data? The concept of flattening the curve is to keep the level cases below the point where ICU units aren’t overloaded. They aren’t - anywhere in the country. Even NY which was the hardest hit state by far, has plenty of capacity. They have sent the hospital ship Comfort away because it’s not needed.

Only because Mayor of NY sent patients to nursing homes
That were in no way a medical facility properly equipped to handle Covid patients

How did that work out..Their Dead

Wasn't because the ship wasn't needed

merrymini 05-11-2020 08:04 AM

The WHO has shown itself to be biased and unreliable by its commitment to trusting China and its lies.

Joe C. 05-11-2020 08:20 AM

#1 Do really believe everything the WHO says? Their main goal is preserving their organization. While they do have doctors and nurses who are passionate about saving lives, their administration part of their business has other (financial, political) interests.

#2 The OP has it right.

#3 It is also about (government) controlling all aspects of our lives.

#4 Follow the $$$ … see where it's all going now.

#5 Unfortunately, today's condition can bring us closer to socialism than we've ever
been.

#6 I don't trust the government and certainly don't believe the crap that the media puts
out. Whether it's the television news, newspapers or the internet, it's all designed to
influence us.

Klatu 05-11-2020 08:45 AM

The goal was to reduce the spread of the disease in a huge surge, all at once; it was not intended to stop it forever. Remember the graphs with the spike, that would overwhelm health care facilities? The curve has been flattened and facilities have excess capacity. Yes, when lockdown ends, there will be rise, but not the tsunami we were told was about to come. Suggesting the lockdown is to reduce the infection spreading is a clear case of alarmists moving the goalposts when the problem seems to on its way to resolution. We were not "sold" on the idea that lockdown would continue until a vaccine would be found, just until the spread has been flattened. Now we're at that point and the doomsayers are saying we need to wait longer, longer. And they are not to be trusted. After all, there are folks involved in this discussion nationally who see benefit from ongoing lockdown which cripples the economy and can be used to defeat Trump in November.

One more thing. As testing increases in number, the number of cases identified will increase. Let's not take seriously the panic reporting from biased sources at the "increase" in cases. The cases were/are there regardless of testing; we are just uncovering them. After all, if we started "testing" to see how many people cheat on their income taxes --even if only a few dollars -- and found out the number was large, then would we be justified to say there is a surge in cheating? No; we are just identifying the number that was there all along. In the case of the Wuhan virus, it is hospitalizations that we need to monitor.

And one more thing: postponement of elective surgery. It has caused hospitals to lay off staff. This is another effect of the panic that said we must shutdown. Elective surgeries are not inconsequential. They are not cosmetic or minor surgery, just surgery that allows for the date to be chosen ("elected"). How many people were put off surgery of a serious nature by this lockdown?

In sum, this lockdown did bend the curve. But it must end, for the good of individuals, the economy, our national spirit. And Florida is doing it right. Just check this article and be glad we are not saddled with the kind of leadership Illinois folks have to contend with:

Commentary: Sorry, Illinois, but Florida is doing this reopening thing right - Chicago Tribune

LiverpoolWalrus 05-11-2020 08:49 AM

Great thread. Can we get our resident doctors to chime in? Are they Blue Ash and Golfing Eagles, is that right?

Paging...

Kathi71 05-11-2020 09:25 AM

Flattened curve?
 
THe cur ve has not been flattened. It has been bent so that the angle is not as steep. If it were flattened it would be horizontal. Best case would be if it were at an acute angle and headed down.

EdFNJ 05-11-2020 09:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by devorejh (Post 1762813)
Unfortunately there are way too many scared and paranoid people around right now. They have bought into this government and media generated over-reaction to a virus. Based on testing we now know that this virus will have about the same mortality rate as the flu that comes around every year, meaning that this whole thing was unnecessary. Some confrontations are inevitable as the paranoid want you to be like them.

Why does everyone compare this to the flu ? It's not only the higher "mortality rate" that makes this dangerous it's the fact that it is twice as contagious over a shorter period of time:

Flu deaths vs. coronavirus deaths: These reasons show why Covid-19 can be more dangerous than the flu - CNN

Q&A: Similarities and differences – COVID-19 and influenza.

rmd2 05-11-2020 09:33 AM

TV
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DecaturFargo (Post 1762799)
Not sure what figures you're looking at but our numbers are still going up, not down. What's your hurry?

The numbers in TV have gone down ever so slightly. For about 3 weeks it has been at 79 and a few days ago it went down to 77. Of the 77 we don't know how many people have already fully recovered.

Indydealmaker 05-11-2020 09:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swoop (Post 1762689)
“The WHO has repeatedly underlined the importance of "flattening the curve" in order to tackle the coronavirus outbreak, calling on countries around the world to impose sweeping public health measures.“

As far as I am concerned, WHO has lost its credibility. It now appears to be just another political entity.

graciegirl 05-11-2020 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cheapbas (Post 1762868)
We have a different goal here in the villages.

It’s keep your name off of a park bench.

Stop trying to sell this “goal achieved” thing and suggest we should be “moving on”. We are not at a green light.

look at the Revised death toll estimates

The president just up’d his death toll estimates 2x to 120k. The CDC along with some wiz MIT Modeler think 261k by august.

the Governor Recently said 85% of the deaths in this state were over 65. The average age in TV is around 72.

Let individuals here make their own decisions, you shouldn’t be encouraging anything.


I absolutely agree. Heck I even like your NAME! I bet your mom didn't have anything but smart kids. Well said, sir or madam. Proud to know you live here.

Swoop 05-11-2020 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indydealmaker (Post 1763073)
As far as I am concerned, WHO has lost its credibility. It now appears to be just another political entity.

I absolutely agree. I only posted that in response to someone who questioned who had recommended flattening the curve to begin with. The WHO was one of many, I was just citing them as one source.

argos5usa 05-11-2020 10:32 AM

We've reached the point of diminishing returns from the lock down and entering the area of harmful effects on people's health as a result of the Rec Department deciding to keep Pickleball courts and other physical activities closed.

There's no valid excuse for not opening the Pickleball courts now.

Swoop 05-11-2020 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kathi71 (Post 1763060)
THe cur ve has not been flattened. It has been bent so that the angle is not as steep. If it were flattened it would be horizontal. Best case would be if it were at an acute angle and headed down.

Here is a link to a graph of “flattening the curve”. As long as we stay below the dotted line (not overwhelming hospitals) we have succeeded in flattening the curve. That was the purpose of the shutdown.
How to Flatten the Curve on Coronavirus - The New York Times

billethkid 05-11-2020 10:49 AM

We have the luxury of being able to choose whether and what should be open or not. and for how long.
And we also have the choice to not leave home or participate in anything we choose or not.
Now we have people doing our shopping for us.....for almost anything.

Our retirement revenue/income (for most of us) is not dependent on opening or closing of anything.

The real issue is just how long can businesses be shut down before they go out of business?
How long can the government be handing out money to people who are out of work?

In the short term we are paying a price with objectives to flatten the curve and start back to normal.

Both the small and large businesses are approaching their survival limit. Many would not be able to survive stopping or back to closing down.

Whether we like it or not America cannot survive a return to shutting down again. The price has already been paid to do that. We are going to be faced with decisions to be made just like we have on current and past prices to be paid.....lives lost to the flu each and every year....lives lost on the highway each and every day.....we will be facing the same outlook/attitude/tolerance toward Covid-19 numbers......until such time as there is a cure or vaccine (maybe 50% will opt to get).

It is likely shutting down America will end the ability for many to ever get back to any semblance of past levels of normal.

There will be different price to be paid.....that will become, like so many others, tolerable.

I do hope I am wrong.

canyonblue 05-11-2020 10:54 AM

Sorry, I just can't watch the Coronavirus Negative News, aka CNN.

Don Ferguson 05-11-2020 10:57 AM

One death is too many! That is an absolute truism! Every single death from COVID-19 is a tragedy to every friend and family member of the deceased. People have certainly died from this virus unleashed on us. Our short term "lock down" reaction was justified for all, and certainly remains a viable choice for us "old and vulnerable to comorbidity problems "! HOWEVER, as a national strategy it is not an exaggeration to state IT IS DESTROYING OUR COUNTRY! Our response is completely out of proportion to the problem. Even if you believe the inflated COVID-19 death numbers, try and put them in perspective. If corona virus continues unabated (we do nothing) , it would be only the 7th leading cause of death per year in this country! Anybody consider shutting down to cure heart disease (655,381 deaths per year) Cancer (599,274/year) etc. etc. I believe I have more than earned the right to criticize this strategy since I am solidly in the absolute maximum vulnerability categories of age AND I have both of the top 2 comorbidity diseases! There is not a reason in the world that us "vulnerable old folks" can not voluntarily do our own quarantine/shelter as long as we want. To impose that prolonged protocol on the rest of the citizens is asinine!

calibantwo 05-11-2020 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swoop (Post 1762288)
The goal of staying home, wearing masks and social distancing was to “flatten the curve”. It was never about eradicating the virus - it was about not overrunning hospital ICU units. We have achieved that goal. Those same experts who suggested flattening the curve, told us back then that it would save lives by not over taxing our healthcare facilities. It was not about preventing people from getting the virus, just about reducing the chances of everyone getting it at once. We have done that. That was the reason for the lockdown, but people have forgotten that. Mission accomplished, now it is time to move on.

You are correct about the reason for the lockdowns, but not the result. None of the earliest states to reopen had met the government's requirements of a flattened curve. Look at the disastrous results in Georgia -- and they are pushing forward with lifting restrictions. President Trump does not want this excessive push to open everything at once with the resulting spike in Covid deaths. He does not want to be known as President Death! Let's have a little more patience -- please!

Lil GTO 05-11-2020 11:06 AM

Could not agree more. Just drove to TV from Houston TX and staying a month. I’m at the metro diner now enjoying a sit down meal in a place that is cleaner than the day it was built and only a few couples here so very spread out. Common down and get you some good food.


Quote:

Originally Posted by Swoop (Post 1762288)
The goal of staying home, wearing masks and social distancing was to “flatten the curve”. It was never about eradicating the virus - it was about not overrunning hospital ICU units. We have achieved that goal. Those same experts who suggested flattening the curve, told us back then that it would save lives by not over taxing our healthcare facilities. It was not about preventing people from getting the virus, just about reducing the chances of everyone getting it at once. We have done that. That was the reason for the lockdown, but people have forgotten that. Mission accomplished, now it is time to move on.


Lil GTO 05-11-2020 11:07 AM

Absolutely correct!


Quote:

Originally Posted by ficoguy (Post 1762423)
Empty hospital beds....ICUs only at 30% of capacity, hospital ships and field hospitals never or minimally used, a country awash in masks and gloves....respirators at $ 16,000 a unit sitting in warehouses....government handouts like candy for things not even related to CV19, like AMTRAK and the Kennedy Arts Center....sounds like a good overblown crisis to me....


Lil GTO 05-11-2020 11:09 AM

Or better yet end it now. I’d rather die living than live in fear of death while cowering in shelter.

Quote:

Originally Posted by UpNorth (Post 1762441)
If you are waiting for the last person to die from Covid before it is "over", you might as well stay indoors with your mask on and wait for your own demise.


kenoc7 05-11-2020 11:11 AM

Overblown?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ficoguy (Post 1762423)
Empty hospital beds....ICUs only at 30% of capacity, hospital ships and field hospitals never or minimally used, a country awash in masks and gloves....respirators at $ 16,000 a unit sitting in warehouses....government handouts like candy for things not even related to CV19, like AMTRAK and the Kennedy Arts Center....sounds like a good overblown crisis to me....

80,000 deaths probably going to at least 135,000 by August is overblown?????????

ficoguy 05-11-2020 11:13 AM

Death rate for 3 counties is 33 out of 854,944
 
Population of Sumter, Lake and Marion: 854,944
Cases to date: 698
Deaths: 33

There are normally 12 deaths A DAY from all causes in these 3 counties
Including traffic accidents, suicide, drug overdoses and natural causes

JoMar 05-11-2020 11:13 AM

The good news is those that want to get back to normal won't be making those decisions.

Swoop 05-11-2020 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by calibantwo (Post 1763134)
You are correct about the reason for the lockdowns, but not the result. None of the earliest states to reopen had met the government's requirements of a flattened curve. Look at the disastrous results in Georgia -- and they are pushing forward with lifting restrictions. President Trump does not want this excessive push to open everything at once with the resulting spike in Covid deaths. He does not want to be known as President Death! Let's have a little more patience -- please!

Every state has met the requirement for flattening the curve. Not one state has run out of hospital ICU beds, not one state has run out of ventilators. We have met the criteria. If you look at the model for flattening the curve, the idea that this whole lockdown was based on, you’ll see that the number of cases of the virus doesn’t change - they are just spread out over a longer period of time.

coffeebean 05-11-2020 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swoop (Post 1762878)
Sure they are working on a vaccine, but they have been working on one for the SARS strain of the Covid virus for 18 years. How long are you prepared to be shut down for?

We never hear about SARS anymore here in the US. Is it really a threat anymore? How many deaths are there annually for this virus? Maybe the SARS vaccine has been put on the back burner.

thelegges 05-11-2020 04:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kenoc7 (Post 1763144)
80,000 deaths probably going to at least 135,000 by August is overblown?????????

Keyword here is probably. Then again flu season is around the corner, so best to stay inside. Playing golf since day one, out in the normal world one week today, tested, no issues

Wallyworld 05-11-2020 06:42 PM

Dr Birx just said the CDC cannot be trusted. They are over inflating the deaths by 25%. When will everyone just admit this is totally political, making sure Trump doesn’t get re-elected.

coffeebean 05-11-2020 07:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lil GTO (Post 1763135)
Could not agree more. Just drove to TV from Houston TX and staying a month. I’m at the metro diner now enjoying a sit down meal in a place that is cleaner than the day it was built and only a few couples here so very spread out. Common down and get you some good food.

Were the servers and the cooks wearing masks? They have an open kitchen so it is easy to see the food preparers.

graciegirl 05-11-2020 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wallyworld (Post 1763377)
Dr Birx just said the CDC cannot be trusted. They are over inflating the deaths by 25%. When will everyone just admit this is totally political, making sure Trump doesn’t get re-elected.

Please link us to that. I missed Dr. Birx saying the CDC cannot be trusted. Can you show us that original statement?

EdFNJ 05-11-2020 10:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by canyonblue (Post 1763123)
Sorry, I just can't watch the Coronavirus Negative News, aka CNN.

So please elucidate on exactly who is giving you the "real news" ? That was a rhetorical question, no need to answer. ;)

EdFNJ 05-11-2020 10:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by graciegirl (Post 1763397)
Please link us to that. I missed Dr. Birx saying the CDC cannot be trusted. Can you show us that original statement?

Birx reportedly said '''there is nothing from the CDC that I can trust''' - Business Insider

Aloha1 05-12-2020 12:21 PM

Very interesting since WAPO is certainly not a fan of the Government. Her statement also maps with several reports by physicians (including my daughter in law) that they are being told to list any death that may have had a "symptom" common to the Wuhan virus as "virus related". Pneumonia? Wuhan Virus. Heart Attack? Wuhan Virus.

Topspinmo 05-12-2020 12:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoMar (Post 1763146)
The good news is those that want to get back to normal won't be making those decisions.

as long as it don't affect golf right!

Topspinmo 05-12-2020 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cheapbas (Post 1762868)
We have a different goal here in the villages.

It’s keep your name off of a park bench.

Stop trying to sell this “goal achieved” thing and suggest we should be “moving on”. We are not at a green light.

look at the Revised death toll estimates

The president just up’d his death toll estimates 2x to 120k. The CDC along with some wiz MIT Modeler think 261k by august.

the Governor Recently said 85% of the deaths in this state were over 65. The average age in TV is around 72.

Let individuals here make their own decisions, you shouldn’t be encouraging anything.

As long as it don't affect golf right!

Aloha1 05-12-2020 12:43 PM

I am in the vulnerable age group. I'm in good health although technically I have high blood pressure and high cholesterol. I say technically because the miracles of modern medical science have provided me with medications that control both down to the accepted norm. Having said this, I FIRMLY agree it's time to reopen. This belief in no way is a knock on those who insist they need to stay isolated. Many of us do and should.

But consider this: The vast majority of TV'ers rely on Social Security, pensions, and savings to fund their retirement. The longer the economy remains shut down, the more danger grows that all three of these sources are threatened.

Take SSA, where the money to fund it comes from payroll deductions on those currently working. Latest stat this week is close to 30 million of those workers are not working and therefore not paying the SSA tax. What happens to you if the Government says, "sorry, no check this month"?

Pensions from a company rely on that company making contributions to it's retirement fund. If the company is shut down, where does the money come from to make that pensions payment?

Finally, your savings. Interest rates are less than 1% for most fixed investments. The stock market will continue to be a roller coaster ride for quite a while. No guarantee what you have today will be what you have tomorrow.

So I say, open up. Do it smart but open up. This virus will be around for a long time just like the flu. We cannot wait for the pipe dream of no more cases and no more deaths before we open up. those of us with underlying conditions are smart enough to take the right precautions such as masks, gloves, sanitizer, etc, when going out. We know to avoid large crowds and maintain social distancing even if others don't. The only way to control the spread of this virus at present is by increasing herd immunity. The fewer targets, the less virus. This does not mean everybody stay home because that only delays the inevitable spread that would result.

The vast majority of those who have been infected had no to mild symptoms. They need to get back to work for their sake and ours.

Alto2548 05-12-2020 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swoop (Post 1762735)
Recheck what data? The concept of flattening the curve is to keep the level cases below the point where ICU units aren’t overloaded. They aren’t - anywhere in the country. Even NY which was the hardest hit state by far, has plenty of capacity. They have sent the hospital ship Comfort away because it’s not needed.

Too many people have been brain-washed by the media hype and trying to inform them otherwise is a waste of time.


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