Many 2/2 Courtyard Villas esp. south of 466 are going for the high $300's lately! A 3/2 CV just went pending at around $700K in Amberjack.

The millage rate will be adjusted if assessments go up just as back North. - I hope

Once the rampant speculation ends, and the collapse and taxpayer bailouts come, the Federal Reserve will once again say that no one could have possibly seen it coming, and its endless stream of cheap money was not at fault.

The shifting of the tax burden from Florida residents to snow birds will accelerate because the assessed value of a Florida resident's home can only increase by a maximum of 3 percent per year while the sky is the limit for a snow bird's home.

That depends upon your definition of "snowbird".. a resident of Florida can spend a lot of time out of state, and maintain their residency, and hence, get the benefit of homestead exemptions.

Change "snowbird" to "non-Florida resident". The big prize is not the homestead exemption: the big prize is that your assessed value cannot increase more than the CPI or 3 percent per year whichever is less.

I thought that the increase in assessed value for non-residents is limited to 10%.

Non-Homestead Cap

And they would then lose their exemption up north where taxes are generally much higher.

They are much higher - no generally about it!!

In theory that's the way it's supposed to work, but I know a few who have gamed the system.

correct. We bought in 2021, and changed our residence in February of 2021 from NY to FL. As we tried to predict how our new home would affect our finances, I spent some time studying the way the tax assessments work.
Our previous owner (we bought a pre-owned home, build in 2006, from the original owner) had years of homestead control on the taxable assessment. I knew that would be reset with our purchase.

Fast-forward to late summer when I got the tax notice and I was pleasantly surprised that it wasn't higher. Then, I thought it through a bit further and realized that the assessment was done before we bought the house, and remembered that taxes are payed "in arrears", so the previous owner's assessment and homestead preferences applied for my first tax bill.
I will get the big hit with my next tax bill, when all of her years of homestead valuation go away, plus the effect of the recent run-up gets factored in. Really looking forward to that.

Prices are going up again. When you look at The Villages website now, designer homes averaging 1950 square feet are hovering at about 500 without a view. View lots on the Chitty Chatty, ponds, golf courses are jacked up to about 700. Turning to St. John’s and Richmond and the turnpike I’m getting the vibe of another 5% increase. I don’t see prices abating in the near future for sure.

You could well be right but at some point interest rates have to go up and that will not be a good thing for the real estate market. Besides no asset goes up forever without a correction at some point.

Interest rates can go up.
 

They may go up soon, but what is a 1/2 point when there is no inventory and many are contemplating paying cash anyway? It won’t effect anything around here.

The prime rate reached 21.5% on December 19, 1980. The rate of inflation is currently the highest it has been in 40 years and it is just getting started. Who know what the future holds.

If it only goes up 1/2 pt no big deal but if rates go up by several points than watch out.

Besides when a smaller designer house goes for a half million customer will be priced out of the market.

It takes a while to blow up a balloon but when it punctures it deflates in a hurry.

Not necessarily. In NY where I was a resident, and still own property, (but am not employed, nor do I own a business), the issue is how many days I spend in NY. More than 180 (or 181, I can't remember) and I have to pay taxes on my IRA withdrawals.
However, it is not tied at all to how many days I spend in my new state of Florida.
I can spend 5 months in NY, and 3 months somewhere else, and only 4 months in Florida, and still claim Florida residency for my homestead, and not pay NY income tax.

Hence, I would still be a "snowbird" and still get the advantages of homesteading, and not pay NY income tax.

It is listed at $649,000 today.

I really don't think this will happen as dramatically as it's happened in the past Because everyone keeps forgetting about the Pandemic. Now many people close to retirement are able to work remotely so many are buying thier retirement homes, working then retiring in place. It's going to be a long time till this changes.

Also the developer is building like crazy. Whether i like them or not they know what they are doing so at least they don't believe the housing market will slow down any time soon.

In addition, many are selling their homes up north for over inflated prices then just using that money to buy homes here at the same over inflated prices. It's a property swap. We bought our Ivy last June at a price that i felt was way too much. None of my neighbors wanted the house for the same reason. But we bought it because it had a lot of upgrades and was perfect for us. It also has a view and that's another feature that causes the home to be sold at a crazy price. Now almost a year later, the price we paid in my opinion was a bargain! The house now is worth a couple hundred thousand more than we paid for it. Many of my neighbors who wanted to buy my house as a upgrade are kicking themselves.

Plus a $24,000 Bond. The Canadian owners must be getting a little nervous about the way things are going.

I think the average resale price for a 2/2 patio villa is now well over 300K. Now that is ridiculous.

Not only housing, look at the economy in general...everything is out of control.

With vinyl siding..

A friend of ours paid $650K for a nice house in Rhode Island about 25 months ago. Listed it for $999K. First day 8 offers. Final sale $1,170,000. It was a nice house but gimme a break. two Doctors started bidding against each other. This deal included no inspections and no contingencies. Cashish! Nuts!

Totally out of control but the day of reckoning is coming nothing goes up forever.

Bet those two MDs had competitive histories, went head to head, and neither could stand the other getting the house! Your friend got lucky!

Our poor grand kids. They have no idea.

Not for long. Everyday my neighborhood has more listings and no new sales. 2 sales didn’t close. Bet appraisal came up short

If your "poor grandkids" are educated and in the right business, they will earn more in a lifetime than you ever did. I have two granddaughters earning over six figures right now and they are not 25 yet.

the only thing constant in life is change...

Wrong neighborhood, homes in our area are usually sold before the sign gets in the window and those that take a little longer either are on a bad lot or the owners are a little too greedy but they all eventually will sell.

100%

Three went up on our street in April as spec homes. All were sold within minutes.

Unbelievable
 

Homefinder - The Villages(R) Homes and Villas for Sale




940 K…such a deal?

Not really

once interest rates go over 8% the price of home will tank.. give it another 2 or 3 months..

I don't think the market will "tank" as you say. It will cool off. But there's still a supply problem with lots of demand.

I think prices will start leveling off a bit. They can't can't continue to go up.

This one sold for $515,000 on December 17, 2020. But it is furnished!

Just like the last economic downturn, The Villages will still be one of the best locations to own of home regarding property value. And the demand now by retirees is even stronger.

Stay tuned.