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-   The Villages, Florida, General Discussion (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/villages-florida-general-discussion-73/)
-   -   Inflation Gone Wild (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/villages-florida-general-discussion-73/inflation-gone-wild-350619/)

Stu from NYC 06-11-2024 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nancy@Pinellas (Post 2339870)
The new car wash on 466A will charge you $25 a month for as many times as you’d like to go.

Wonder how long this will last

fdpaq0580 06-11-2024 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oneclickplus (Post 2339819)
This isn't about car washes. It truly amazes me that the vast majority of people (especially the newly uneducated pro-Hamas college graduates) don't understand the cause of inflation.

It is very simply defined as "too many dollars chasing too few goods". So, there are two parameters there: the # of dollars and the quantity of goods.

The government is "printing" dollars at a phenomenal rate. This is the direct result government spending more $$ than it takes in. At today's debt levels, we are past the point of no return. Mathematically speaking, it can no longer be fixed. Debt and money printing will continue until the USD is equivalent to the Zimbabwe dollar in buying power. Yes, it will be completely destroyed. Governments around the world are slowly diminishing the purchase of (and even selling) US treasuries. Google "BRICS" if you are unaware. With no one left to buy our debt at low interest rates, the end will come quickly.

On the other side of the coin, with regard to specific products / commodities (oil, gas, etc), the price goes up (seen as inflation) when supply is constrained (artificially or not). Many products in the USA have been inexpensive because they have been plentiful ... such as clean water. Watch what happens out west and elsewhere as water demand outpaces supply for farming and human needs. This is going to get ugly.

Then you have government interference on the other side such as the $20 min wage for fast food workers in CA. I'm sure most of you have read what kind of havoc that is wreaking on businesses there with many closing up shop. Food delivery drivers are virtually out of business because ... surprise surprise ... people don't find it reasonable to pay $30 to have a meal delivered. And they're not willing to pay $18 for a Big Mac, fries and a Coke.

Of course, the primary driver of this insanity is the government "printing" of dollars mentioned already. More dollars chasing the same things (food, housing, gas, etc) forces prices up which in turn creates the push for higher wages.

This cycle can never be broken unless / until the feds have a completely balanced budget with no deficits whatsoever; spend only what is taken in in taxes. Since we know that is not going to happen, the borrowing will continue simply because the debt service will continue to grow. That's the monkey on our backs ... $1 trillion dollars of tax revenue is now required to pay the interest on the $35 trillion of debt. This huge interest payment crowds out other budget priorities which, in turn, provokes even more borrowing to maintain the status quo. And the debt and interest payments grow even more. Anyone who doesn't see this coming was sleeping in math class. The system will eventually collapse in on itself (Zimbabwe revisited).

I'll leave you with this thought: if your savings, your retirement, your kids' college fund, your future is denominated in US dollars, you are one of the pigs that will be led to the slaughter. 2028 at the latest and, to emphasize that this is NOT a political post, it will happen no matter who is elected president or which party controls either chamber of congress. The USA can not side step this future. It is a certainty. It could happen even sooner if the USA is hit with a black swan event.

Yes. Yours is a political post when you realize one choice is freedom, and the other is a fascist dictatorship. Be careful what you vote for. The choice is yours.

jimbomaybe 06-11-2024 12:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fdpaq0580 (Post 2339899)
Yes. Yours is a political post when you realize one choice is freedom, and the other is a fascist dictatorship. Be careful what you vote for. The choice is yours.

I think it is very apparent which post is politically motivated

jimbomaybe 06-11-2024 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC (Post 2339847)
Or raise interest rates and curb govt spending.

I like the idea of waving a magic wand and have all those goods appear

Stu from NYC 06-11-2024 12:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimbomaybe (Post 2339916)
I like the idea of waving a magic wand and have all those goods appear

Next time you see the tooth fairy ask her to help you out

Velvet 06-11-2024 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cliff Fr (Post 2339815)
Another big factor in food costs is the Russia/Ukraine war. The cost of fertilizer has increased substantially because of that conflict. Also remember that when the value of the dollar decreases 20% a company's profit also decreases by 20%. Then there's fuel cost too. Publix is a high class store and if you compare prices they are often not much higher than a store like Walmart. If you shop the Bogos at Publix they can be cheaper

“Publix is a high class store” lol, is that the reason why the checkout people are instructed to say how much you saved today, instead of admitting how much more you paid than if you shopped somewhere else? Also people who know what they would like to eat at home are unlikely to be influenced by BOGOs. That’s just what the store has, not necessarily what you are planning to buy.

retiredguy123 06-11-2024 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Velvet (Post 2339928)
“Publix is a high class store” lol, is that the reason why the checkout people are instructed to say how much you saved today, instead of admitting how much more you paid than if you shopped somewhere else? Also people who know what they would like to eat at home are unlikely to be influenced by BOGOs. That’s just what the store has, not necessarily what you are planning to buy.

I shop a lot at Publix, but I don't consider it a high class store after being exposed to Wegman's in Virginia. But, it is definitely higher class than Walmart, where I never shop. Overall, I think I spend less money on food and eat better than people who eat in restaurants every day. I don't consider the Villages restaurants to be high class at all. I try to buy most of my food at Publix so I can avoid eating at restaurants. But, I wish they sold more ready-to-eat foods. Or even better, I wish they had a Wegman's. That is what The Villages needs.

fdpaq0580 06-11-2024 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimbomaybe (Post 2339912)
I think it is very apparent which post is politically motivated

There are several on this thread. Some more veiled than others, but they are here. I admit to a knee-jerk reaction, but don't assume that makes me R or L. I could remove my post, but our administrators enjoy doing the removals in a fair and balanced way. Bye, for now. I have to go sit in the corner for a while. 😉🖖

jimbomaybe 06-11-2024 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC (Post 2339923)
Next time you see the tooth fairy ask her to help you out

Come on Stu your not supposed to see the fairy , tooth or otherwise just accept the gifts given, I have a lot of teeth invested in an eventual return , keep the faith

jimbomaybe 06-11-2024 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fdpaq0580 (Post 2339935)
There are several on this thread. Some more veiled than others, but they are here. I admit to a knee-jerk reaction, but don't assume that makes me R or L. I could remove my post, but our administrators enjoy doing the removals in a fair and balanced way. Bye, for now. I have to go sit in the corner for a while. 😉🖖

At the risk of offending our TOV masters sometimes an ideological post is seen as political, but if I don't like , well it's not likely I would be missed

Stu from NYC 06-11-2024 03:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimbomaybe (Post 2339945)
Come on Stu your not supposed to see the fairy , tooth or otherwise just accept the gifts given, I have a lot of teeth invested in an eventual return , keep the faith

I have special glasses that lets me see her. Good looking lady, just dont tell my wife

Rainger99 06-11-2024 05:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hypart (Post 2339794)
The CPI does include food and energy. You are referring to CPI-U for All Items Less Food and Energy. This index is closely watched by many economic analysts and policymakers under the belief that food and energy prices are volatile and are subject to price shocks that cannot be damped through monetary policy.

Does anyone know if any of the CPIs factors in insurance?
Health, home, and auto?

I just got home and auto quotes for next year. Each up between 15-20%.

Sandancer 06-11-2024 06:12 PM

Under new ownership & when I went there, my car had blotchy, smeered windows...Was a terrible job! I used to go all the time with the original owners....Beautiful, clean car....After one time with new owners, I won't go back {no matter the price}

Velvet 06-11-2024 06:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rainger99 (Post 2339966)
Does anyone know if any of the CPIs factors in insurance?
Health, home, and auto?

I just got home and auto quotes for next year. Each up between 15-20%.

My guess is insurance companies factor in things that are more relevant to their circumstances, such as hurricane and flooding damage, as compared to say, increases in the price of groceries and fuel.

Rainger99 06-11-2024 07:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Velvet (Post 2339975)
My guess is insurance companies factor in things that are more relevant to their circumstances, such as hurricane and flooding damage, as compared to say, increases in the price of groceries and fuel.

The question was whether any of the various CPIs use insurance increases to determine the rate of inflation. In the past few years, insurance has increased much faster than most other items.

Car insurance went up 26% from 2023 to 2024. If the CPI doesn’t use insurance as one factor to determine inflation, the figures are not accurate.

Velvet 06-11-2024 08:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rainger99 (Post 2339985)
The question was whether any of the various CPIs use insurance increases to determine the rate of inflation. In the past few years, insurance has increased much faster than most other items.

Car insurance went up 26% from 2023 to 2024. If the CPI doesn’t use insurance as one factor to determine inflation, the figures are not accurate.

Ah, thank you for clarifying.

MrChip72 06-11-2024 10:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by opinionist (Post 2339813)
"There are many, many economic reasons why deflation is avoided at all costs."

All those reasons are a cheap excuse for the government to print money to pay the bills.
The government is printing money at a rate of 1 trillion dollars every 100 days.

The Federal Reserve ordered between $180.5 billion to $204.4 billion to be printed for calendar year 2024. This is the 3rd lowest volume in the past 10 years. I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers from.

Source: Federal Reserve Board - Currency Print Orders

Glowing Horizon 06-11-2024 10:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC (Post 2339197)
As John Maynard Keynes (father of Keynesian economics) said prices are sticky downward.

Economists have even more flowery euphemisms than funeral directors do. “Sticky” 😉

Rainger99 06-12-2024 02:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrChip72 (Post 2340009)
The Federal Reserve ordered between $180.5 billion to $204.4 billion to be printed for calendar year 2024. This is the 3rd lowest volume in the past 10 years. I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers from.

Source: Federal Reserve Board - Currency Print Orders

I think he was referring to the national debt.

At current rates, the U.S. national debt is growing by a remarkable $1 trillion about every 100 days, equal to roughly $3.6 trillion per year.

Just a moment...

jimbomaybe 06-12-2024 04:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrChip72 (Post 2340009)
The Federal Reserve ordered between $180.5 billion to $204.4 billion to be printed for calendar year 2024. This is the 3rd lowest volume in the past 10 years. I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers from.

Source: Federal Reserve Board - Currency Print Orders

The number of physical dollars in circulation is not relevant. The US spent over 4.5 trillion dollars on covid relief, no goods or services were created for this money made available, supply and demand= inflation, the size of a dollar bill did not change ,its value did

Rainger99 06-12-2024 05:17 AM

1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by jimbomaybe (Post 2340019)
The number of physical dollars in circulation is not relevant. The US spent over 4.5 trillion dollars on covid relief, no goods or services were created for this money made available, supply and demand= inflation, the size of a dollar bill did not change ,its value did

This is a chart showing the increase in M1. I don’t understand its significance but that huge jump as a result of Covid looks bad. Perhaps some people can elaborate.

Bill14564 06-12-2024 05:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rainger99 (Post 2340042)
This is a chart showing the increase in M1. I don’t understand its significance but that huge jump as a result of Covid looks bad. Perhaps some people can elaborate.

It looks like the jump was a result of including savings account balances in the number and was not only due to COVID relief. The M2 graph might be better for seeing the impact of COVID relief funds.

From a Federal Reserve Q&A page:

1. What changes to the H.6 statistical release were announced on December 17, 2020?
Posted: 01/28/2021


A. A number of changes to Statistical Release H.6, “Money Stock Measures,” were announced on December 17, 2020. The changes, listed here, account for recent amendments to Regulation D and efforts to streamline and modernize the release.

Recognize savings deposits as a transaction account by combining the H.6 statistical release items “Savings deposits” and “Other checkable deposits” and report the resulting sum, “Other liquid deposits,” as part of the M1 monetary aggregate.
Publish the H.6 statistical release at a monthly rather than weekly frequency and retain only monthly average data on the release itself. Weekly average, nonseasonally adjusted data will continue to be made available in the Board’s Data Download Program (DDP), while weekly average, seasonally adjusted data will no longer be provided.
Provide components of the monetary aggregates at a total industry level as opposed to presenting the breakdown of components by commercial banks and thrift institutions.
Report only data used to construct the monetary aggregates, thereby eliminating the release of data on institutional money funds and memorandum items on U.S. government deposits and deposits due to foreign banks and foreign official institutions.
Make the release available in only one format—HTML.

A template of the H.6 statistical release reflective of the above changes can be found here.
2. When will the Federal Reserve implement the H.6 statistical release changes announced on December 17, 2020?
Posted: 12/17/2020


A. The Federal Reserve will implement the H.6 statistical release changes announced on December 17, 2020, with the first monthly H.6 statistical release to be published on Tuesday, February 23, 2021, inclusive of retroactive updates to the data back to May 2020.

Rainger99 06-12-2024 06:26 AM

1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill14564 (Post 2340058)
The M2 graph might be better for seeing the impact of COVID relief funds.

Here is the M2 graph.

Bill14564 06-12-2024 06:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rainger99 (Post 2340073)
Here is the M2 graph.

Which shows a $2.5T increase in early 2020 and a $6T increase over two years unlike the M1 graph which shows a $12T increase in early 2020 alone.

GoRedSox! 06-12-2024 08:35 AM

The irony of all this is that due to politics, so many point the finger only at one President. It's like they have forgotten, or want to forget, that the first two stimulus checks and all those PPP loans and extended unemployment benefits came from the previous President.

For my part, I am not blaming either one. We were in the middle of a world-wide pandemic that was killing millions of people. We were suddenly thrust into that, we didn't have all the answers, it was the first pandemic in 100 years, it was uncharted territory. Yes, we still have some inflation, which is coming down. I think we have fared remarkably well based on fighting a pandemic that killed 1 million Americans.
The CPI numbers released today show more progress, and new highs again on Wall Street. FYI-insurance rates are factored into the CPI, in fact in the month of May, they fell by 0.5% according to the numbers.

golfing eagles 06-12-2024 08:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoRedSox! (Post 2340160)
The irony of all this is that due to politics, so many point the finger only at one President. It's like they have forgotten, or want to forget, that the first two stimulus checks and all those PPP loans and extended unemployment benefits came from the previous President.

For my part, I am not blaming either one. We were in the middle of a world-wide pandemic that was killing millions of people. We were suddenly thrust into that, we didn't have all the answers, it was the first pandemic in 100 years, it was uncharted territory. Yes, we still have some inflation, which is coming down. I think we have fared remarkably well based on fighting a pandemic that killed 1 million Americans.
The CPI numbers released today show more progress, and new highs again on Wall Street. FYI-insurance rates are factored into the CPI, in fact in the month of May, they fell by 0.5% according to the numbers.

Yes, but that would be 1 million Americans died WITH a positive COVID test, not necessarily FROM COVID.

PS: GO YANKEES!!!!

Bill14564 06-12-2024 08:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfing eagles (Post 2340162)
Yes, but that would be 1 million Americans died WITH a positive COVID test, not necessarily FROM COVID.

PS: GO YANKEES!!!!

Aren't you stealing someone else's line there?

CoachKandSportsguy 06-12-2024 08:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rainger99 (Post 2339985)
The question was whether any of the various CPIs use insurance increases to determine the rate of inflation. In the past few years, insurance has increased much faster than most other items.

Car insurance went up 26% from 2023 to 2024. If the CPI doesn’t use insurance as one factor to determine inflation, the figures are not accurate.

Yes it does, however, it's an imputed number for the calculation, which makes the imputed number calculation suspect. Imputed number means that it's not a survey number like those for the costs of goods.. . Insurance is a service, and is calculated with the service CPI versus the goods CPI.

The goods CPI is much easier to get data and calculate. Service inflation is much harder, and given the slow method changes by the federal data collectors, they have resorted in history to an imputed number based upon financial results of insurance carriers. Therefore it's a blend of health, auto and life at the aggregate level.

They also changed some methodology at the beginning of the year for parts of the insurance component, and they just effed it up even more. . same with the cost of rental imputed from the cost of house sales. That being said, it's a blend for a national average, which means that FL is offset by much lower increases in other states. So FL is higher than the rest of the country for its third world characteristics. .

I hope this answer the question more than just yes/no

golfing eagles 06-12-2024 08:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill14564 (Post 2340164)
Aren't you stealing someone else's line there?

Public domain

GoRedSox! 06-12-2024 09:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfing eagles (Post 2340162)
Yes, but that would be 1 million Americans died WITH a positive COVID test, not necessarily FROM COVID.

PS: GO YANKEES!!!!

That is true, but anyone who believes that honest statistics are real can see the huge number of "excess" deaths that did occur in this country above the trend line.

There were a lot of "excess" retirements, too.

Not everyone impacted by COVID died. The folks struggling with Long Covid are also a very real group and larger than some might think.

My point really is that we can look in hindsight and see some of the mistakes but at the time decisions were being made, there was no playbook and everyone was doing the best they could.

The Red Sox are sadly not competitive and have been decimated by injuries as well. I'm not sure they would have been competitive if they didn't get crushed by injuries. We will see if the Yankees can turn it around in the post season this year. Soto makes that club much better.

fdpaq0580 06-12-2024 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfing eagles (Post 2340162)

PS: GO YANKEES!!!!

Not a hockey team. Who cares?
"GO PANTHERS"!,,

golfing eagles 06-12-2024 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fdpaq0580 (Post 2340215)
Not a hockey team. Who cares?
"GO PANTHERS"!,,

What's "hockey"?????? Is that some sort of game??????

Stu from NYC 06-12-2024 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfing eagles (Post 2340230)
What's "hockey"?????? Is that some sort of game??????

Hookey?:loco:

dadspet 06-12-2024 01:10 PM

If you think you need a car wash here you should be happy you don't live in NY!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Rich42 (Post 2339097)
Inflation has been raging beyond the typical norms for the last three years. It is significantly affecting virtually all Americans. While businesses need to increase prices to cover legitimate rising costs, too many are just taking advantage of the upward spiral in prices to gouge the consumer. I encountered the epitome of this trend in The Villages yesterday. I have patronized the “Village Car Wash” in the La Plaza Grande shopping center in Spanish Springs for over 10 years. Admittedly I had not been there in quite some time with covid and all, and the last time I was there was a couple of years ago. At that time the price of the cheapest basic car wash (they call it Bronze) was $14.95. Of interest, also note the prices of the various levels of service were prominently posted when you entered their property. To just digress for a moment, I pass their location several times a week and had been noticing the normal long waiting line of cars—regardless of time of year or time of day—has been absent. The place has always appeared to be a gold mine! Well, not so for the last few months. I don’t know exactly when they raised their prices, but the basic Bronze wash (again the cheapest option) was $34! I only found this out when I went inside to pay because their prices were no longer publicly posted. That is an increase from the relatively recent price of 127%!!! No way have their costs gone up anywhere near that. I now understand why there are no longer any lines of people waiting to get their cars washed, and I will certainly no longer be a customer. That is pure greed that should not be supported by the community.

WOW I can't believe anyone would pay that much for a Car Wash! Crazy :spoken: If you lived in NY where it snows and there is mud on the road often you might be tempted to go the the DIY Car wash and stick in $2 but I have trouble believing anyone would pay any where near $34 for a car wash. I'll admit A few times a years I'm tempted to use the car wash at Sams for $8 but as they say someplace "It would be a cold day in Hell" for me to pay anywhere near $34 for a car wash.
I guess I'm fortunate - I'm a very careful driver and try to go around dirty spots on the road and avoid Love bugs, my car just doesn't get very dirty here in Fl and when it does the rain seems to do a decent job. I guess I wouldn't care if they raised it to $50.
btw at the DIY car wash you don't get the slapping and scrapping of various materials trying very hard to remove you wax and scrap your finish off.
Full disclosure I have no financial interest in any type of car wash or have no plans for the purchase of any in the future.

fdpaq0580 06-12-2024 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfing eagles (Post 2340230)
What's "hockey"?????? Is that some sort of game??????

Hot a game. It's THE game! 🙂

Risuli 06-22-2024 02:29 PM

Having moved from the Detroit area about 18 months ago I have been floored by the cost of a car wash in this area. I just returned from Michigan this past month where I had to wash a rental car (Budget apparently doesn't wash their cars anymore) and I paid $7.00 for the cheap stay in you car/drive through wash. Typically its about $8-$10 for a standard car wash in my former area. I've just been getting up early and washing the car myself before the heat of the day kicks in.

Michael G. 06-22-2024 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dougjb (Post 2339380)
All too often now, a business, when questioned about why their prices have gone up, will claim it is because help is getting more expensive. That is a convenient rubrick that just does not hold water.

In the past, businesses would claim they increased prices or decided not to provide a particular service because of the lawyers, or because of insurance. Again, that was and is nonsense.

We live in a free enterprise society. Businesses must adjust their prices and services accordingly. No excuse is necessary for me!

Simply put, since we live in a free enterprise society, I am also free just to walk away from doing business with a business whose services or prices no longer align with my interests. If others follow me and the business fails, I really do not feel anything. To my mind, it is simply that the affected business was unable to manage their business plan appropriately.

There is always another car wash. There is always another business that meets my needs.

Yes, thank heaven we still have choices, will said.

Michael G. 06-22-2024 03:00 PM

Cars do seem stay cleaner here in Florida, but don't forget "brake dust".
That stuff is very corrosive on alloy wheels


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