Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

Noleguy,
There are about 1000 resales for sale in TV and another 1000 new homes. As you say, people are moving in but many of the resales are vacant and bleeding the owners each month when their housing payments are due. It is also a tremendous emotional stress on owners waiting to unload a piece of property in this uncertain market.

The Sumter County Appraiser's Office is showing less than 100 home sales per month. At that rate the current inventory is almost two years.

Unless an owner has the cashflow to wait out this market, the prices must drop. This pertains to resales as well as new homes.

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

noleguy, every situation is different as people have a unit for sale for varying reasons. If someone is pressed they have to consider how much they are bleeding each month and you reach the breaking point, when you just can't afford to bleed any more.Buy not pricing according to the market and sticking to what you want you can hemorrhage
the past few years were Sellers markets.
Now we are in a buyers market :hot: :hot: :clap2:
Larry

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

I'm about a year away from buyng. I think prices will stay about the same.
There are still retirees and moving vans, as noted, and there's also a lot of inventory.

I see about 95% of the resales priced higher than new, and I understand about bonds paid and furniture and landscaping, but they're still too high.

I plan to simply do a "business case" on how much a particular house is worth, and offer that much at maximum. There are too many similar homes to pay top dollar, again IMHO.

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

In everything where there are buyers and seller, prices must be marked to market...no way around that. A year ago financial stocks were doing just fine. Citigroup could sell it's shares at $57 a share; today it got as low as $45 and change. Recently Google sold for as high as $637 a share; way up from last year's price of $416. It's what someone wants to pay for it.

Around Valentine's Day, roses are priced higher than on the 4th of July. Are incoming buyers to TV willing to pay what houses cost 18 months ago? Unfortunately for sellers many upgrades don't increase the value of a home in a market such as this. Those upgrades may, however, help sell the home sooner than a home without upgrades.

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

I agree with noleguy. I do not think you will see that drop here. Not all markets are cold.
Some are still smoking hot! I don't think TV market is smoking hot by any measure but it's slow and steady. Slow and steady is good!

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

Remember this: Everybody wants to move to Florida when they retire. Its been this way for a lot of years, where was the variable. Now there isTV in the mix and what have you got? A viable market. Slow yes, but viable.

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

TV sells the most inventory in Jan/Feb/March, so there is a busy time coming up!!
I agree many of the resales are overpriced and they will probably be taken off the market when the time comes to relist as the sellers aren't prepared to be realistic. There are many resales which are priced to sell, some with bonds paid, and they do.

These factors may just lead to a significant decrease in inventory, which equals stable prices.

Also, when comparing resales to new, many people neglect to add the bond to the purchase price to get a true price. We bought a resale with bond paid. Just be sure you're comparing apples to apples.

Good luck!

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

Just to let you know if you are thinking about buying new I was able to close a deal yesterday on a designer home not only with the 10% furniture deal but they sold the home with no bond attached. They said I saved over 20K. Don't know if this is on every home but it's worth looking into.

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

Dear Barefoot at Last:

:agree:You are so right to encourage prospective new residents of TV to compare "Apples to Apples". Many "wannabees" are crying in their beer that resales are overpriced, but they're not doing their homework and making the TRUE comparisons you are talking about.

When prospective new residents are looking at new homes down here...they need to ADD on the price of the bond...which in the new areas is more that 2.5 times (and going up weekly!!) what it was in the "new" areas in 2005. This is a CONSIDERABLE amount of $$$. Yes, the price of new homes "looks" good and the incentives "look" good, but think about it...are the developers really going to give you something for nothing? Don't think so!!! Somewhere along the line...you're paying for it. Friends from up north recently purchased new in Duvall and had so many extra and hidden costs (all given impressive names) in their closing costs (Much more than we had 2 years ago) it was a joke...not to mention a $28K bond on a ranch home. By the time it was all said and done even they had to admit they had been "Taken Down The Road" and would have been much better off buying one of the "overpriced" re-sales they had looked a...which, in the end, turned out to be NOT so overpriced after all. We tried to tell them...but the "fairy dust" in the air plugged their auditory canals. Now they're making daily trips to Lowes and Home Depot to add all the things they didn't get with their NEW home and calling around to get landscaping, blinds, garage door openers, floor done in garage attic...all of which would have come already done in one of the "overpriced" resales. AHHHHHH as they say, hindsight is 20/20!!!!

Bottom line: Compare "Apples to Apples" as Barefoot at Last suggests.

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

EXCUUUUUUUUSE ME??? You bought a new house with NO bond attached, 10% in "Free" furniture and you only saved $20K? Someone is feeding you a line here. Bonds are running in the $25K to $28K now so someone sucked up a lot of your "savings"...if you know what I mean. Uh, maybe the bank in "closing costs"? It all goes into the same pot.

To other Village Residents: How can the developers sell homes with NO bond while the rest of us are paying them? I think I'll be doing some calling on this one. Maybe they'll take my bond back and reimburse me the difference???

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

The developer can sell for any amount he wants to, doesn’t matter what someone else paid for the homes before. What Sandi might of meant is the bond value was taken off of the selling price that would make more sense. You then have the option of paying it off with the savings. At least that was the deal made to me. The bottom line is we’re living where we want to be, right?

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

Sandi,
Did you buy a designer on the golf course or was it an interior lot? Since the golf course homes are so much more expensive than the interior homes, perhaps TV will pay for the bond in order to sell the house. Good luck and congratulations on your great deal!

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

JKP - you bought your house for whatever you agreed. I'd be incredibly surprised if you accomplish much by calling the developer but good luck. They can sell houses today however they choose. And while I understand new homes don't have upgrades that resales may have, many folks want to choose that stuff based on their tastes, not the previous owners.

For my circumstances, it's still 50-50 whether I go new or resale. I'll see what's out there when I bring my checkbook.

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

johnn
:agree: :agree:
jkp thinks a resale is the only answer. As I stated previously 'IT IS A BUYERS MARKET"
LARRY

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

Diskman:

No way do I think buying a re-sale is the only way. You're all right in saying that "many" of the re-sales are overpriced and not necessarily in any way upgraded. All I'm saying is that anyone considering buying and moving to The Villages, needs to compare "Apples to Apples". ie: Look at a new house in the style you want and then look at a preowned in the style you want. Now set down and make a list of what the pre-owned has that the new doesn't have and compare, compare, compare...add up prices of adding things to the new and again, compare, compare, compare.( Also....have your real estate agent give you a list of the true closing costs you will be paying on the new house. In a lot of instances ( 2 friends who purcased since the "free" furniture thing came out) there are a lot of "hidden and unexplained" (ie: Admin fees, look-up fees, etc.) "funny" charges that show up on the final closing docs that could be a way to make up for what the developer is giving away in "free" stuff.

FYI...also, I checked with Property of the Villages and they said they are NOT selling houses with no bond attached. They said ALL CDDs...of which there are many in the state of Florida...MUST disclose the amount of the bond on any property sold. NOW...here's the catch...IF it happens to be a house or property that for whatever reason is not selling and is, perhaps in an undesirable location or style (I'm NOT necessarily referring to TV or to the person in this forum who said they bought a Designer with no bond so don't send me nasty emails!!) the developer COULD opt to pay the bond off for the prospective purchaser. They said, bottom line is that EVERY house comes with a bond attached but anybody can pay it off.

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

JKP
:agree: with you on the word compare. Any one who purchases a home must do a lot of comparison shopping. Compare models between the various ones the builder offers.
Compare a new to the same model used. Compare the costs, the room sizes etc.
Compare like models between new and used. The used homes have amenities you may or may not like,in colors you may or may not like & with yards you may or may not like.
However bottom line the USED RESALE IS USED and may not deserve the price being asked for a brand new home which you may want to pick the exact color, size amenity
therefore the resale house has to be priced right to encourage you to accept it as it is.[/color]NUFF SAID.
Larry

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

Diskman Larry,

Also, a resale has a few years of use on the roof, HVAC, etc. plus the nailholes in the walls which the owners tend to overlook in their comparing to new homes. Little stuff, but important in it's way.

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

:agree: :agree:
John you are absolutely right I forgot that item but, JFK is set in his ways he won't bend and so his house will be out there for a long long time.
Thanks for your 2cents :bow:
Larry

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

GUESS YOU HAVE NOT PURCHESED A NEW HOME IN THE VILLAGES... YOU DO NOT GET TO CHOOSE ANYTHING.. THEY ARE ALL SPEC HOMES. NO BLINDS OR FANS TOO

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

A newspaper article in today's Sunday paper says that "there's a lot of real estate amnesia out there" -

LA's market boomed thru the 80's until late 1990 and it took until 2000 (ten years) before prices matched those in 1990.

Houston's "Oil Patch" bust started in 1983 and took 14 1/2 years to recover.

Boston's technology jobs dried up and the real estate market was down from 1989 until 1998.

These are isolated events and probably don't apply to a nationwide long term market correction; but then again, its been nearly two years since the bubble burst with predictions of it continuing into 2009.

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

LG, I purchased a new home in TV in July and it did come with blinds and fans. No light kits. Had to have those installed. ;D. I know I am in the minority, but I liked buying a home I didn't have to make a lot of decisions with! Furnishing it has been quite enough!

Becky

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

Chuck, What bubble? the great great majority of homes in the US weren't part of the bubble. The areas that were, parts of the northeast, coastal properties, and California were a part of the bubble. I looked at homes in Newport Beach that were selling for 40,000 new in the seventies that would bring a million today. Where else has that happened? The entire nation's housing market is in the tank. The media started talking about a bubble bursting than switched to the subprime problem. That still doesn't explain the slowdown in the market. The media pushed the issue so much, there's a general fear that prices are going to go down substantially. For most people outside the bubble areas, that would mean selling houses for less than what was paid for them years ago. In the Villages, a house that sold for 160-180K in 1998, 1999 is selling in the high three hundreds today, some in the 400s. Compare the premier homes prices today against 6-8 years ago. Now compare that to the rest of the country where a new $400k home in '98, '99 is selling for 425K today. This whole scene makes no sense.

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

Newport Beach $40K houses from the early 70's are now about $2 Mil

(when I came to Calif in '73 the houses were about the same prices as those in the Chicago burbs - five years later they were 10 times higher!)

http://www.ziprealty.com/buy_a_home/...&cKey=rzhrhw69


Houses in Fla in 2003, 2004 and 2005 were going up at a rate of nearly 50% per year - that's why we bought in early 2004 even tho we aren't going to use it much until 2009.

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

A point of information for all, the developer is committed to be here until 2011 when he the Villages will be 110,000 residents. He has no inclination to remain here after that. The residents will own the Villages, a little bit at a time as the developer sells it to us. We will be on the hook after 2011 and the family completes its' deveopment.

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

It is my understanding that we will own nothing when the developer leaves. Unlike other communities like Del Webb Spruce Creek where the homeowners do own all the amenities except the golf course TV has sold and will sell everything to investors who can collect the monthly dues and they are the ones who will control the amenities. Once the developer is gone and everything is privately owned who knows what fees we might end up paying.

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

Chuck, now I'm REALLY sorry I didn't buy one of those Newport Beach houses. We had friends living there at the time and my company wanted me to move west. Somehow, we ended up in Syracuse. I think the relocation opportunity was in '71 0r '72. We looked at houses in our friends neighborhood and they were about 40K. Later in the 70s, they got divorced and the wife visited with us in Syracuse and mentioned they had sold their house for 350K. That was prior to the end of '78 when we left Syracuse.

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

JJ:

I have a 35 yr old nephew who owns a remodeling construction company in Costa Mesa. He has made many millions in the past five to seven years in that area.

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

Renee you heard wrong. The developer builds then we buy from the developer. The Championship golf courses belong to the developer.

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

Donna

This question was asked and answered on another site.

The residents own the executive golf courses, swimming pools and recreation centers.
Not true. The developer sold the amenities (Executive golf courses, recreation centers and associated swimming pools) to the Villages Center Community Development District (VCCDD) and the Sumter Landing Community Development District (SLCDD).

These commercial districts are controlled by the commercial landowners in these districts. No residents live in these districts. The developer of The Villages is the majority landowner in both districts and the commissioners elected by the commercial property owners makes all decisions relative to the management of the amenities. Bonds floated by the 2 central districts paid for the amenities purchased from the developer. A portion of the residents' monthly amenity fees is used to retire these bonds.

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

Renee is correct, I researched this and all amenities are already sold or will be. Call TV is in doubt, don't take my word for it.

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

:agree:

Over the years, I've tended to blame the media for everything, maybe unfairly, I don't know.

But this housing market burst, and the sub-prime problem, I believe are ABSOLUTELY a fire being fanned by the incredible media attention!!!! The media has the average person, who is probably a bit gun-shy about pulling the trigger on a home purchase in the best of markets, petrified of buying a home at something other than the absolute lowest price point in history!!! If people would only calm down, and decide on their home purchase based on a consideration of the long run, they will realize their home value, while possibly dropping some over the short term, will be a good long term investment.

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

Sorry :'( :redface:

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

Steve, you're absolutely correct. Here in Atlanta, we have a new phenomena. The few buyers out there aren't even looking at the used market. Unlike some situations in TV where a new house might be cheaper than a used one, we seem to have the opposite here. I've seen new subs all over the place where the properties offered are quite a bit more expensive than comparable used properties. We have a custom built 4 sided brick ranch with 2800 square feet on the main floor and another 2800 finished on the lower level on a 3/4 acre lot in a lake community. I've seen new houses on a slab, 22-2400 square feet and no lot, small garages, selling for 50K more than what we're asking. And, they're selling, not as fast as in the past, but people are buying them. Go figure.

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

Just wanting to bump this to the top and get a current perspective on housing prices,

especially in TV,, they seem a bit "softer" than a year ago,

and have also seen some new villas with 2 car garages, which I'd only seen on resales in the past year or two I've been watching

so..what's up there? LOL...

Funny House Selling Story
 

We endured almost a year of too few showings of our beautiful family home in north suburban Chicago. But it sold just before we moved to TV. Thankfully!

Our house was situated in a beautiful woodland community and our neighbor across the street had a beautiful pond, which he kept stocked with fish for the neighbors and local kids to catch and release. It was beautiful to view from our front windows.

One day a twenty-something princess arrived to view our house with her realtor. We had left the house for the showing, but our son had stopped by, not knowing we were gone. The young woman came up the front walk wailing and moaning to her realtor that the listing didn't explain that there was "open water" across the street and asking whether it would be required that the pond be fenced to protect her children. My son (who had caught many a fish from that pond as a kid) happened to be at the front of the house and overheard this entire conversation.

He probably didn't further the prospects of the young princess making an offer when he observed to her..."I wouldn't worry about the pond at all, lady. There hasn't been a kid drown in it for MONTHS!"

My son always was a comedian. And the princess wasn't going to make an offer anyway!

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

A house down the street just sold for 20% less than it did 2 yrs ago.

I think a speculator bought it in Dec 05 and walked away from it.

At least two other homes on the block are empty also for probably the same reason.

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

It looks to me like the market will continue to decline for some time to come. I remember the 80's and 90's , it took a long time to recover, and the flow of people to TV has slowed. The east coast of Fl. has been devastated by the decline in buyers. This hasn't been felt to the same extent here, but it may unless things pick up. It is always a matter of supply and demand, plain and simple. Right now the banks are holding alot of bad paper (mortages), they have to some extent absorbed some of the housing price decline ( in effect). But at some point the market will stablize and this excessive debt will be removed frome the market. In the past this I believe was done by the value of the dollar going lower againt other currencies, and investors from other countries buying into the U.S.A. Look at Sony, Honda just to name a few but there are lots more.Sorry to ramble, bottom line, don't see the light at the end of the tunnel, this may take years to unravel in the mean time the only bright spot is road construction, everything else is declining

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

In addition to roads - hospital construction is currently booming in CA.

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

So has anyone heard the TV foreclosure rate?

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

I would be very surprised if it was substantial at all. Of course, I have absolutely no facts to back up this statement, but I'm an American. I don't need to know nothing to have an opinion. :dontknow: