Talk of The Villages Florida
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Talk of The Villages Florida (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/)
-   The Villages, Florida, General Discussion (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/villages-florida-general-discussion-73/)
-   -   The Sky isn't falling (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/villages-florida-general-discussion-73/sky-isnt-falling-353556/)

asianthree 10-08-2024 02:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by graciegirl (Post 2377112)
The pressure has just dropped below 900 Millibars which makes it one of the most powerful storms in History in this half of the world. It will not be as bad as Tampa, but I would not be surprised that the death toll from this hurricane may very well be in the thousands.
I really don’t see thousands, as a death toll. I-75 north was a parking lot yesterday, and turnpike was moving at a slow pace as we drove to Disney. Looks like the normal get out of dodge traffic. It’s not like this is the first rodeo for Florida Costal residents. Plus with prior loss of homes, new buildings are at better code on the coast.

Parks are basically empty, and a very nice weather day. Disney Springs will be where the masses will land.
Many guests seem to be here just for a room. Value hotels seem very full from evacuations. Moderates busy, DVC not as busy.

Bealman 10-08-2024 02:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill14564 (Post 2377168)
It looks like there has been one hurricane that caused over 500 deaths in the US and maybe five, counting Helene, that caused over 100 deaths in the US. Given that, I would be very surprised if the death toll from this hurricane is in the thousands.

But we shall see.
Six USA hurricanes with over 500 deaths. Yes, they were in the late 1800's and early 1900's, except Katrina and possibly Helene being number seven. 8000+ lost their lives in Galveston, TX alone. 19 hurricanes with less than 1000 and greater than 100 deaths. I get your point, but your statistics aren't correct.

blueash 10-08-2024 02:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bealman (Post 2377185)
Six USA hurricanes with over 500 deaths. Yes, they were in the late 1800's and early 1900's, except Katrina and possibly Helene being number seven. 8000+ lost their lives in Galveston, TX alone. 19 hurricanes with less than 1000 and greater than 100 deaths. I get your point, but your statistics aren't correct.
Thank you. I continue to be disappointed at how often posters make up stuff and present it as fact when a simple google search will get them accurate data.

https://<a href="http://www.wundergr...a> Underground gives data only for storms thru 2007 and matches your numbers.

But digging deeper since 2007 there have been many killer hurricanes not in that data set:
Helene 2024 214 and climbing
Ian 2022 156
Harvey 2017 103

There are also several just since 2007 in the high double digits:
Irma 2017 92
Ike 2008 85,
Ida 2021 87
Michael 2018 59
and Matthew 2016 52

Note that Sandy which struck NJ and NY hard is not included as it was not a hurricane when it hit, "just" a tropical storm. Deaths 159

Lastly " Bill14564 It looks like there has been one hurricane that caused over 500 deaths in the US " is taking a very narrow view of the US when he seems to mean mainland. Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands are part of the US, and both these have lost thousands to hurricanes.

Bill14564 10-08-2024 02:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bealman (Post 2377185)
Six USA hurricanes with over 500 deaths. Yes, they were in the late 1800's and early 1900's, except Katrina and possibly Helene being number seven. 8000+ lost their lives in Galveston, TX alone. 19 hurricanes with less than 1000 and greater than 100 deaths. I get your point, but your statistics aren't correct.
I will change that to say “in the modern era of hurricane detection and warning.”

Edit: … and “Continental US”

(the accusation that I just made stuff up is untrue and quite insulting! If I was writing a paper I may have been more clear about the era and the Continental US. I wasn’t writing a paper, I was questioning “thousands”)

OrangeBlossomBaby 10-08-2024 03:16 PM
Definitely not my first rodeo with hurricanes, I'm from Connecticut and lived in Boston for 7 years. HOWEVER -

In Connecticut, I lived in a house with a basement, the houses were constructed in the 1950's and 1960's, and weren't going anywhere. We had minor damage, and we were safe under the house in the basement. If the hurricane had blown the whole house away, we would've been fine. Wet and sad and annoyed, but fine. Just like most people who lived in houses INLAND in Connecticut who had basements.

In Boston, I lived next door to the fire department in a walk-up apartment over a store that was constructed in the 1930's. I sat the hurricane out snug as a bug in a rug in the fire department's truck bay, watching broken tree trunks and other debris blow by.

Here, we're in a manufactured home, with no basement. I think I'd be safer in a tent in the Ocala Forest than I am in my own house tomorrow night. But we'll see.

CoachKandSportsguy 10-08-2024 08:11 PM
Most interesting FL Hurricane fact:

There were no hurricanes making landfall in FL between October 2005 and September 2016.

That’s 11 years. Weather be random and a trait of randomness is clusters, like galaxies / solar systems in the vast universe

Topspinmo 10-08-2024 08:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianL99 (Post 2377016)
14 threads currently running about Milton.

Get out of town. Board up the windows. Fill your bathtub with water. Fill your clothes dryer with ice. Hoard toilet paper.

As we say up north, "is this your first time on skates"?

Is this your first hurricane? Can't be, if you've lived in TV or Florida for more than a year or two. Where did you live before coming to Florida? Weather hasn't affected your life at some point?

New England has been hit with 71 Hurricanes or Tropical Storms, since I was born in 1953. One a year for me.

There have been 18 direct Hurricane hits in New England, since 1953. One every 4 years.

Close to 70 times in the last 70 years, Boston has been hit with a snow storm, dumping over 24" of snow in a 24 hour period. Worcester has been hit over 100 times in the last 70 years.

Doesn't the Midwest ever get bad weather?

Over the last 30 years, an average of 48 people per year, die from Hurricanes in the USA (136 if you include floods). Statistically, a non-event. (Weather Related Fatality and Injury Statistics)

The Villages is nearly 50 miles from the coast and probably has the most sophisticated drainage system in the USA.

Over-react much? Don't drive your golf cart through a flooded tunnel, you'll be fine. Friday is supposed to be 80 degrees and mostly sunny.

I know this isn't going to change anyone's mind or behavior, but this Chicken Little "the sky is falling" stuff is getting tedious.
I wouldn’t get too cocky yet, can always spin up tornado. If you’re under it don’t matter how big it is. :faint:

RRGuyNJ 10-09-2024 04:23 AM
Need a reality check?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianL99 (Post 2377016)
14 threads currently running about Milton.

Get out of town. Board up the windows. Fill your bathtub with water. Fill your clothes dryer with ice. Hoard toilet paper.

As we say up north, "is this your first time on skates"?

Is this your first hurricane? Can't be, if you've lived in TV or Florida for more than a year or two. Where did you live before coming to Florida? Weather hasn't affected your life at some point?

New England has been hit with 71 Hurricanes or Tropical Storms, since I was born in 1953. One a year for me.

There have been 18 direct Hurricane hits in New England, since 1953. One every 4 years.

Close to 70 times in the last 70 years, Boston has been hit with a snow storm, dumping over 24" of snow in a 24 hour period. Worcester has been hit over 100 times in the last 70 years.

Doesn't the Midwest ever get bad weather?

Over the last 30 years, an average of 48 people per year, die from Hurricanes in the USA (136 if you include floods). Statistically, a non-event. (Weather Related Fatality and Injury Statistics)

The Villages is nearly 50 miles from the coast and probably has the most sophisticated drainage system in the USA.

Over-react much? Don't drive your golf cart through a flooded tunnel, you'll be fine. Friday is supposed to be 80 degrees and mostly sunny.

I know this isn't going to change anyone's mind or behavior, but this Chicken Little "the sky is falling" stuff is getting tedious.

Try selling that 50 miles inland crap to the folks in Asheville and surrounding areas. I'm 100 miles inland and had $28K worth of damage during Irene in 2011. The Villages is inland but also vulnerable. I hope you do well during the storm.

ChrisTinaBruce 10-09-2024 04:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ElDiabloJoe (Post 2377114)
Same goes with the constant threads and posts on climate change. I agree with you, it's weather. It's normal. It's cyclical. It happens. Prepare and deal with it like human kind has for millenia.
Oh, but there’s WAYYYY to much money 💰 involved in the climate cycling propaganda.

Cuervo 10-09-2024 04:58 AM
Enjoy life when your time comes there is not much you can do about it.
There is a new disaster every year, this is just mother nature's way of thinning out the heard.

crash 10-09-2024 05:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bjeanj (Post 2377164)
Gracie, I hope you’re wrong about the death toll, but some people can’t or won’t evacuate when they should.
Maybe because people tell them the sky isn’t falling but for some it very well may.

People who say it is weather it will pass get over it are doing people a dis service. I have been here since 2015 and this is the first hurricane that will have hurricane force winds as it goes over the Villages.

mkjelenbaas 10-09-2024 06:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianL99 (Post 2377016)
14 threads currently running about Milton.

Get out of town. Board up the windows. Fill your bathtub with water. Fill your clothes dryer with ice. Hoard toilet paper.

As we say up north, "is this your first time on skates"?

Is this your first hurricane? Can't be, if you've lived in TV or Florida for more than a year or two. Where did you live before coming to Florida? Weather hasn't affected your life at some point?

New England has been hit with 71 Hurricanes or Tropical Storms, since I was born in 1953. One a year for me.

There have been 18 direct Hurricane hits in New England, since 1953. One every 4 years.

Close to 70 times in the last 70 years, Boston has been hit with a snow storm, dumping over 24" of snow in a 24 hour period. Worcester has been hit over 100 times in the last 70 years.

Doesn't the Midwest ever get bad weather?

Over the last 30 years, an average of 48 people per year, die from Hurricanes in the USA (136 if you include floods). Statistically, a non-event. (Weather Related Fatality and Injury Statistics)

The Villages is nearly 50 miles from the coast and probably has the most sophisticated drainage system in the USA.

Over-react much? Don't drive your golf cart through a flooded tunnel, you'll be fine. Friday is supposed to be 80 degrees and mostly sunny.

I know this isn't going to change anyone's mind or behavior, but this Chicken Little "the sky is falling" stuff is getting tedious.
That a lot of typing!

Golfshopguy 10-09-2024 06:54 AM
A good dose of common sense. Thanks!

biker1 10-09-2024 07:04 AM
The center of the circulation will not go over The Villages but the wind field is broad. The track of the center of the circulation will be well south of us. While we will see some gusts, the probability of sustained hurricane force winds is on the order of 5-10% according to the NHC.

Quote:
Originally Posted by crash (Post 2377302)
Maybe because people tell them the sky isn’t falling but for some it very well may.

People who say it is weather it will pass get over it are doing people a dis service. I have been here since 2015 and this is the first hurricane that will have hurricane force winds as it goes over the Villages.

BrianL99 10-09-2024 07:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by midiwiz (Post 2377336)

tedious? LOL it's more than that. It angers me now, but I'm sure you (as well as I) will get 'scolded' for our words as they aren't woke enough for the moderators of here nor FB.


I look at the empty shelves and just wonder the intelligence of these people. They drained everythiing that isn't practical. If you are going to do that then just evacuate and leave the stuff for those of us that know exactly what to do. Here's a hint..... Bread and peanut butter. That's all I'll give you.

The entire thing is ludicrous. These people are like "preppers", who think the world is going to end tomorrow.

The folks living in mobile homes in the "historic" part of The Villages, are at risk every time it rains, that's their choice.

The rest of The Villages is about as protected as one can be in Florida. The odds of folks living in TV being seriously hurt or having significant damage, is substantially lower than the odds of them dying in their car while evacuating.


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