Talk of The Villages Florida - US reopening with no cure or vaccine and little testing?

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Quote:

Originally Posted by GoPacers (Post 1746946)

There is NO DATA to support this statement. We have absolutely no idea how many people have been exposed to the virus at this point. We only know how many people have tested positive. Increased testing for the disease and an antibody test that helps us know how many people have been infected will give us the necessary data to accurately determine the denominator. Until then, statements like this are uninformed at best.

There will never be complete, actual hard data, either for COVID-19 or the flu. It is impossible to completely measure and will always rely on extrapolation and estimates, which will change with time and reporting. Meanwhile, there are plenty of estimates available (google: COVID-19 mortality rate). From MarketWatch, for example, speaking of the worldwide deaths:

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"Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director general of the World Health Organization, said at a press briefing in Geneva. That’s more than previous estimates of around 2% and the influenza fatality rate of less than 1%."

The same report also admits:

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"The WHO fatality rate estimate could be related to officials underestimating the number of actual cases. If infections are actually higher globally, the fatality rate would obviously fall. The more time asymptomatic people spend going about their daily lives, the more people can become infected."

Will coronavirus kill you? Why fatality rates for COVID-19 vary wildly depending on age, gender, medical history and country - MarketWatch

These estimates change continuously. According to the National Review,

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"Dr. Anthony Fauci, longtime director of the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases, has testified that COVID-19 could be ten times more lethal than influenza. The latter has about a 0.1 percent fatality rate, so that suggests that the COVID-19 rate is about 1 percent. Yet, Dr. Fauci has written (in the New England Journal of Medicine), that “the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%,” if we assume that “the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases.”

Coronavirus Pandemic: U.S. Fatality Rate Steady at About 1 Percent | National Review

As more numbers comes in, and better estimates of non-symptomatic and/or unreported infections are included, the mortality rate will almost certainly drop. As of 4/15/2020 however, according to the CDC, there had been 24,582 deaths out of 605,390 "both confirmed and probable cases" in the U.S. & territories. Doing the math, this results in over 4% of reported cases. There would have to be nearly another 1.9 million additional, unreported cases to bring the mortality rate down below 1%.

Cases in U.S. | CDC

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoPacers (Post 1746946)

In addition, everybody does NOT have a 99.9% chance of surviving the flu. You're taking a population based probability and assigning it to each and every individual which is simply not how it works. If that were the case the mortality rates would be the same for all demographics.

By everybody, I am talking about the U.S. population in general, not individually. OK, statistically speaking, we all have a 99.9% chance of surviving the flu. Semantically better, but the same odds.

Quote:

Originally Posted by yankygrl (Post 1746992)

The country has to open sometime soon..i think a slow, gradual opening start with barbershops and nail salons were you can control numbers. Then slowly add clubs and activities that can definitely control number of participants. There will be no effect Immunization for months, even with a rushed procedure. Be smart, continue social distancing, wash your hands and hang out only with your most trusted friends.

Numbers of what? Customers or those infected...……..how do you tell the difference?

Quote:

Originally Posted by blueash (Post 1746957)

Do you have a source for that claim that every death in NY is being recorded as corona related? Because it is untrue AFAIK. I'll await your link. You might wish to consult the direction from the CDC, that CDC in Atlanta, on their suggestion for recording causes of death during this pandemic.

You might want to consult any media station for confirmation. Fredo added 3700 people who had died of heart attacks, etc. because “they weren’t tested but probably would have died of corona virus anyway”. Great way to screw up statistics. Wonder if he gets a bounty if a body bag is used for a covid death instead of a heart attack.

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Originally Posted by Bogie Shooter (Post 1746968)

So it was second handed...……………………….

Not any more. Check any news station. Fredo switched 3700 deaths to covid.

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Originally Posted by LiverpoolWalrus (Post 1746107)

From what I understand, our country is preparing to reopen soon, perhaps on a "rolling" basis, before there's an effective treatment or vaccine for Covid-19. Testing is also projected to remain difficult to get. I'm curious how you all will respond to the call to resume our activities under these conditions.

If the virus is still lurking and we have no weapons against it other than masks, alcohol and distancing, will you go back to your restaurants, town squares, the rec centers for card games, mahjong, jam sessions, Beatles group, ceramics, wood shop, etc.? Or will you continue to stay at home? I'm surprised TV's powers that be haven't polled the community on this important question. (Note to Winston: have you asked your members if they will indeed show up?)

IMHO, I think everything should be open and operating as it was. Those that fear getting the virus should stay home. Of all those that get it, most will recover anyway.

I just don't see the logic in unleashing us prematurely. If the virus is still out there, large numbers of people, or even small numbers of people if you prefer, will continue to contract it and pass it on. And that's the situation that got us into this mess in the first place. Even though the virus was not widespread, there was enough of it to allow it to spread exponentially. What makes us think the same thing won't happen again? It probably will, and that's the set up for the "second wave" we've been hearing about.

So why would we want to make a bad situation worse? And why would the current administration want to commit political suicide in the process?

I just don't get it. Can anyone shed some light? What a Sophie's Choice on the part of our leaders on both sides, huh? Either let the economy crumble and the population go mad or kill off a segment of our citizenry.

I think everything should be open and operating as it was. Those that are afraid of getting the virus should stay home, of all those that contract the virus, most will recover at home. Not all that much different from the various pandemics we have survived through in the past. If you have taken care of yourself, watched what you put into you body and exercised daily, most likely you'll survive.

Quote:

Originally Posted by sail33or (Post 1746998)

...99.99 percent will survive this flu(yes it is a flu)(repeat, it is a flu organism)...

According to WHOM? (repeat, whom?) I have found no references at all that claim it is a form of influenza. Some do say it is similar to several viruses which cause the common cold. Also this, according to Encyclopædia Britannica:

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Influenza viruses belong to a virus family known as Orthomyxoviridae. COVID-19 is caused by a coronavirus named SARS-CoV-2, which is classified in the family Coronaviridae.

What Is the Difference Between Influenza and COVID-19? | Britannica

Quote:

Originally Posted by sail33or (Post 1746998)

Of the 20,000 deaths in the US only a very few are under 65 with no underlying issues. (In a nation of 350,000,000.

I'm not sure what you call "very few", although it's definitely true that mortality rates rise with age. It's also true that the number of U.S. adults having hypertension is rising (currently approximately 45%, according to the CDC). Add in diabetes, asthma, obesity, etc and it gets more difficult to find those "under 65 with no underlying issues". If you want to risk your life and those of your friends and family, that is your decision. Just stay away from me and mine. Maybe wear a sign...

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Originally Posted by roscoguy (Post 1747329)

Maybe wear a sign...

You may have misunderstood: this was a (semi-snarky) response to the part of sail33or's earlier post that advised that people still worried about COVID-19 "can avoid everyone that has resumed normal life" (also semi-snarky), but definitely not a literal suggestion. :icon_wink:

Quote:

Originally Posted by DianeM (Post 1747331)

Seems to me I’ve heard of people being forced to wear signs before. How did that work out for German Jews?

Still, where did this come from??? :shocked:

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Originally Posted by Velvet (Post 1746147)

This is just my opinion, but each day I see the news the virus management seems better and better. I think any opening of the economy will be evaluated carefully each day and recalled if necessary.

This virus is unlike any virus that has come before it. The experts of the management team are learning new things every day and giving us the best information that they have at the time. Sometimes that conflicts with previously given information but that it because they are learning new things.

The president is putting together a task force to re-open the economy. That does not mean that they are planning on doing anything soon. I'm sure that when these two panels of experts decided that it is safe to open some things, they will begin opening certain businesses in some areas with restrictions.

I assume that places like Morgantown, West Virginia will be able to have some businesses open with restrictions before those same types of businesses will be able to open in New York City.

This idea of a rolling opening makes perfect sense in a country as large and diverse as ours. Sweden and Switzerland do not have the same issues that we have. They are very small countries and are very much the same throughout.

I believe that both the federal government and our state government, in fact, most state governments have done an excellent job in fighting this pandemic. I believe that they'll make the right decisions on what to open when.

Quote:

Originally Posted by roscoguy (Post 1747457)

Your exact words - “Stay away from me. Maybe wear a sign”.

Quote:

Originally Posted by LiverpoolWalrus (Post 1746107)

From what I understand, our country is preparing to reopen soon, perhaps on a "rolling" basis, before there's an effective treatment or vaccine for Covid-19. Testing is also projected to remain difficult to get. I'm curious how you all will respond to the call to resume our activities under these conditions.

If the virus is still lurking and we have no weapons against it other than masks, alcohol and distancing, will you go back to your restaurants, town squares, the rec centers for card games, mahjong, jam sessions, Beatles group, ceramics, wood shop, etc.? Or will you continue to stay at home? I'm surprised TV's powers that be haven't polled the community on this important question. (Note to Winston: have you asked your members if they will indeed show up?)

I just don't see the logic in unleashing us prematurely. If the virus is still out there, large numbers of people, or even small numbers of people if you prefer, will continue to contract it and pass it on. And that's the situation that got us into this mess in the first place. Even though the virus was not widespread, there was enough of it to allow it to spread exponentially. What makes us think the same thing won't happen again? It probably will, and that's the set up for the "second wave" we've been hearing about.

So why would we want to make a bad situation worse? And why would the current administration want to commit political suicide in the process?

I just don't get it. Can anyone shed some light? What a Sophie's Choice on the part of our leaders on both sides, huh? Either let the economy crumble and the population go mad or kill off a segment of our citizenry.

By the end of June current estimate is 27 million unemployed. COVID deaths projection by end of June 60,000 with that number expected to be revised downward on a weekly basis.

The pain and suffering associated with that number of unemployed will be with us for years and many of those unemployed will turn to drugs, alcohol, etc. the social consequences will be severe.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DianeM (Post 1747331)

Seems to me I’ve heard of people being forced to wear signs before. How did that work out for German Jews?

I’m ready to wear a sign, “Stay the f... away from me!”

Quote:

Originally Posted by Velvet (Post 1747508)

I’m ready to wear a sign, “Stay the f... away from me!”

If that gives you peace then go for it.

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Originally Posted by jswirs (Post 1747325)

How many pandemics have you lived through, lol? You must be 1000 years old.

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Originally Posted by Dr Winston O Boogie jr (Post 1747460)

This idea of a rolling opening makes perfect sense in a country as large and diverse as ours.

Winston, any idea when you'll be able to resume the Beatles group? I guess you won't need that bigger room now, right, as I'm assuming a lot of people will stay away indefinitely. It's going to be interesting to see how much momentum will be lost with all the Villages clubs. Inertia is a powerful thing.

Have you polled your members to see if they would come back, or is it too early for that? If I'm in TV, I'll be there on your reopening day!

///o-o\\\

My concern is that, if you only open states that don't have many coronavirus cases, how do you prevent people from travelling to those states?