Originally Posted by golfing eagles (Post 1760272)

Agree 100% for INDOOR environments. Completely unnecessary OUTDOORS

Here are the findings of a recent study:

"Three hundred and eighteen outbreaks with three or more cases were identified, involving 1245 confirmed cases in 120 prefectural cities. We divided the venues in which the outbreaks occurred into six categories: homes, transport, food, entertainment, shopping, and miscellaneous. Among the identified outbreaks, 53.8% involved three cases, 26.4% involved four cases, and only 1.6% involved ten or more cases. Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport (108; 34.0%; note that many outbreaks involved more than one venue category). Most home outbreaks involved three to five cases. We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases. The first salient feature of the 318 identified outbreaks that involved three or more cases is that they all occurred in indoor environments. anAlthough this finding was expected, its significance has not been well recognized by the community and by policy makers.[/B] Indoors is where our lives and work are in modern civilization. The transmission of respiratory infections such as SARS-CoV-2 from the infected to the susceptible is an indoor phenomenon."

Now here is a question I would really like a legitimate answer to:

I have seen dozens of people driving alone in their car with the windows up and wearing a mask. WHY???. I'd like to hear from any of those people as to what they are thinking, since I can't come up with a reason.

Originally Posted by golfing eagles (Post 1760358)

Not at all.

First of all the researchers in the article cited 3 different possible scenarios. None of them signal the end of civilization nor even suggest "the fat lady is just warming up"

Second, they are retrospectively comparing histories of 8 INFLUENZA epidemics since 1700 and extrapolating to possible COVID 19 future scenarios. Interesting, but hardly definitive. After all, just look at the early models that suggested 2 million + American deaths

Originally Posted by GoodLife (Post 1759972)

They are not having corona parties in Sweden so everyone gets infected, they have told seniors and at risk people to stay home. Those that go out are told to practice social distancing. You are not required to go out and mingle, just like here as we relax the rules. Nobody is going to kill you if you stay home and take precautions.

Herd immunity does not require 100% get infected, just enough so that the virus dies out from lack of hosts.

Originally Posted by tvoyager (Post 1760442)

So please search ex dr Fauci employee arrested. It is a bit long but WOW,On YouTube it will blow your mind. If someone would post a link if they are able.

Originally Posted by GoodLife (Post 1760437)

You asked for epidemiologists expertise, I gave it to you. Now you discount their opinion. Nobody is talking about the end of the world here. If we are in the first few months of a pandemic scenario that could last 2 years, as these epidemiologists say, then saying the fat lady is just warming up is quite logical.

The CIDRAP report stressed that no matter which scenario actually occurs, governments must be prepared for at least another 18-24 months of significant covid 19 activity.

The CIDRAP report compared the current coronavirus pandemic to past influenza outbreaks, stressing that SARS-CoV-2 cannot be compared to SARS or MERS, as these two viruses behaved in “substantially different” ways than the current coronavirus outbreak and that influenza pandemics are more comparable.

Dr. Moore is medical director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP). Dr. Lipsitch is the director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health. John Barry is a professor at Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine. Dr. Osterholm is director of CIDRAP, University of Minnesota Regents Professor, and McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health.

Be glad to see any experts you can come up with who have different scientific opinions.

Originally Posted by Ben Franklin (Post 1760446)

Thanks, but I didn't ask how Sweden was doing it, and you can not say, if one stays home and takes precautions, there is nothing to worry about. One still needs groceries and medicine, at minimal. Even if both are delivered, how many hands have touched the product? The virus stays active up to 24 hours on cardboard, 2-3 days on plastic and metal and 4 days on glass.

Now, about my only questions...

Originally Posted by justjim (Post 1760452)

Those who want to join the herd step forward. That’s what I thought.

Originally Posted by Ben Franklin (Post 1760446)

Thanks, but I didn't ask how Sweden was doing it, and you can not say, if one stays home and takes precautions, there is nothing to worry about. One still needs groceries and medicine, at minimal. Even if both are delivered, how many hands have touched the product? The virus stays active up to 24 hours on cardboard, 2-3 days on plastic and metal and 4 days on glass.

Now, about my only questions...

Originally Posted by davem4616 (Post 1759990)

.... this takes the post a little off course, but it is about the Swedes, so I'll share:

Back in the 1900's a manufacturing company in central Massachusetts, where I was raised, sent recruiters to Sweden and brought hundreds of Swedes over to America to work in their factory. Their research had indicated that Swedes were much more inclined to adapt and follow direction and far less likely to organize into a union than other nationalities or the local US workers at that time were. This one company wanted to avoid having to deal with a union. That company ended up with a predominant Swedish workforce and to this day never did unionize. All of the other large manufacturing firms in that same city did unionize.

Originally Posted by golfing eagles (Post 1760471)

Not at all. It is an interesting retrospective review of previous pandemics. They don't give a single opinion, they list 3 scenarios, and yes, we still need to be prepared for all 3. But it doesn't mean any of those nicely graphed scenarios will come to pass. What about scenario #4---the pandemic fizzles out and is not heard from again? I find that unlikely given that international travel will resume sooner or later and there are some mutations that may occur. I guess it depends on how you define "the fat lady singing". If it means there are zero cases for 5 years, then she is still singing. If it means the worst is over in 3-4 months, then she might still be whimpering, but all the major arias have been sung.
Most people don't know the difference in various scientific studies, but the best designed ones are multiple university sited, double blinded, placebo controlled prospective studies with at least 2500 patients. This type of retrospective comparison does not lend itself to such rigorous criteria. So take it for what it is worth and what it intended to show, but less so as a predictive indicator.

Originally Posted by Tom53 (Post 1760354)

Sweden has a rate of just over 12% deaths per infected, the US is just under 6%. If we followed Sweden's plan we could have conceivably had 2,526,486 infected and 149,620 deaths at this point.

Deaths per million is nothing more than a statistic, and leads to a false sense of security. San Marino has a death rate of 1208/million, over 4 times US and Sweden, which resulted in 41 dead, yes 41!

Deaths per infection is reality!

So it comes down to choice, do I put my money on the chances of getting the virus, or do I go all in on the chances of surviving it.

Numbers don't lie, but they can be misused.

Originally Posted by Tom53 (Post 1760354)

Sweden has a rate of just over 12% deaths per infected, the US is just under 6%. If we followed Sweden's plan we could have conceivably had 2,526,486 infected and 149,620 deaths at this point.

Deaths per million is nothing more than a statistic, and leads to a false sense of security. San Marino has a death rate of 1208/million, over 4 times US and Sweden, which resulted in 41 dead, yes 41!

Deaths per infection is reality!

So it comes down to choice, do I put my money on the chances of getting the virus, or do I go all in on the chances of surviving it.

Numbers don't lie, but they can be misused.

Originally Posted by graciegirl (Post 1760304)

Until and unless we get some hard figures, some genuine data that can be trusted on who is sick, what they are sick with, what did they die of …., until then, the virologists and epidemiologists with the CDC or WHO with a specialty in the pathogenesis of single stranded RNA viruses will have difficulty with their projections.

I bet a lot of them are ready to BITE.

Originally Posted by roscoguy (Post 1760179)

But this was also the point of the lockdown or self-isolation: IF people had strictly complied for a matter of only about 2 weeks, the same lack of hosts could/would have occurred.

Besides, herd immunity to COVID-19 is still only a theory. Nobody knows whether or not there is actually any immunity at all, and if there is, how long it lasts.

Other nations seem to have had very good results with their strict lockdown strategies, such as South Korea & Greece.

Originally Posted by Stuart Zaikov (Post 1759958)

Good question but hopefully one of the vaccines being tested now will be available by end of the year and stop the virus in its tracks

Originally Posted by GoodLife (Post 1760535)

Didn't we go over this already. Death rate per infection is not reality.

Death rate per infection is a statistic skewed by many things including number of tests performed, percentage of deaths that are from nursing homes (most likely to die), and how good your Doctors are.

Death rate per capita is best for judging a country's success in combating a pandemic.

Originally Posted by GoodLife (Post 1760481)

I disinfect my groceries after delivery or curbside pickup, you can leave dry goods in garage for a few days. Over 99% of infections are from contact with other people inside buildings. Risk of groceries contamination is very low. Look it up on CDC guidelines.

Didn't answer your question comparing herd immunity to suicide or abortion because it's ridiculous.

Originally Posted by GoodLife (Post 1760511)

Dr Fauci says second wave of coronavirus is 'inevitable' The nation’s top epidemiologist said Tuesday the United States could be in for “a bad fall and a bad winter,” if it's not prepared for a second wave of the virus.

And LOL. Epidemiologists don't conduct double blinded placebo controlled clinical trials to predict the course of pandemics, especially with a new virus. They study past outbreaks that are have similar person to person spread, R factor etc

Originally Posted by Ben Franklin (Post 1760555)

My question wasn't ridiculous. What is ludicrous, however, is when people think someone's question is ridiculous, or dumb.

Originally Posted by golfing eagles (Post 1760563)

Of course Tony has to say that. I take a completely different approach when I'm the guy in charge and will be blamed for anything that goes wrong. And I agree with him, there will most likely be a second wave. The question is whether it will be larger than the first or an insignificant blip on the radar screen.

As far as epidemiologic studies go, are you asking me or telling me???? Because if you're telling, that REALLY would be a LOL :1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:

Originally Posted by GoodLife (Post 1760576)

Tell you what, to further the discussion, can you show us any epidemiologists who say coronavirus will fade away completely soon and die off? The fat lady will sing? It's certainly possible, but I haven't seen any serious studies saying that.

Most I read say it may fade this summer, but will be back in winter unless vaccine or herd immunity.

I'd be glad to hear it. :)

Originally Posted by Swoop (Post 1760513)

And you are misusing the numbers. You are using a death rate that is derived by taking the number of people who have tested positive divided by the number of people who were coded as Covid deaths. That is incorrect. You have to use all those infected divided by those who died. If up to 80% are asymptomatic, they would never have been tested. Two independent antibody studies show that more than 50 TIMES more people have the antibodies than have had positive test results.

Originally Posted by Tom53 (Post 1760596)

Actually, the rate is derived by dividing the known deaths by the known positives, anything else is just an assumption. Naturally there are more out there that were never tested, and it's probably the same everywhere. But these total numbers are unknown at this time, and the only way to compare is with known numbers.

Originally Posted by GoodLife (Post 1760579)

It gets worse

Professor Lockdown statement to the Telegraph

Professor Ferguson said: “I acted in the belief that I was immune, having tested positive for coronavirus, and completely isolated myself for almost two weeks after developing symptoms.”

So he had his lover over after testing positive, symptoms etc and no immunity test.

Rules are for the little guys

Originally Posted by Two Bills (Post 1760611)

I have heard of an antibody test, is this another test?

Originally Posted by Tom53 (Post 1760596)

Actually, the rate is derived by dividing the known deaths by the known positives, anything else is just an assumption. Naturally there are more out there that were never tested, and it's probably the same everywhere. But these total numbers are unknown at this time, and the only way to compare is with known numbers.

Originally Posted by GoodLife (Post 1760614)

Sorry, should have said antibody test.

Originally Posted by Swoop (Post 1760615)

So you are choosing to ignore the two independent studies that tested for antibodies? Those extrapolated numbers Show a mortality rate of less than 1/2 of 1%. Even the governor of NY is now acknowledging that there were most likely more than 2.7 million cases of the virus in his state alone.

Originally Posted by sallybowron (Post 1760550)

I too am hoping that the vaccine is developed soon, but think about it. Where are they going to start using the vaccine . I am guessing it will not be The Villages. It will take months to vaccinate the whole USA and the world will want their vaccines also. We are looking at a year I bet,:pray:

Originally Posted by Debi-G (Post 1760624)

The affair was pointed out as being hypocritical by telling everyone else to socially distance themselves, yet he stepped outside his home to have an affair with someone he did not live with...

Originally Posted by Tom53 (Post 1760622)

Personally, I'm tired of all the studies that come out with different results and contradict each other, so I look at numbers not estimates.

Originally Posted by Swoop (Post 1760641)

Those studies are actual numbers, but unless you test ever single person in the United States, you have to extrapolate the numbers. That’s pretty basic science.
If you only use those who were sick enough to be tested and then tested positive, and ignore the mild and asymptotic cases, your results will be dramatically skewed.