Originally Posted by GoodLife (Post 1759956)

Meet Professor Lockdown. Professor Neil Ferguson, epidemiologist at Imperial College London. I'll get to the pretty lady in a sec.

Attachment 83985

Professor Ferguson's computer models projected 500k deaths in UK, 2.2 million in USA if strict lockdowns and social distancing were not put in place immediately. UK and USA governments listened. He later lowered his estimates drastically, but damage was done.

He just resigned after being caught having the pretty lady, who is married, over to his house a couple times. This was direct violation of UK rules forbidding intermingling of households. According to the Telegraph, “She has told friends about her relationship with Prof Ferguson, but does not believe their actions to be hypocritical because she considers the households to be one" LOL Anyway, the Professor apparently believes you should do as I say, not what I do.

So I am watching reports about Sweden, the only country I know that has not enacted a lockdown to see how they are doing. Their death rate per million (282) is higher than their Baltic neighbors, but much lower than UK, Spain, France, Italy. Our death rate per million in USA is 214. So many think this shows their herd immunity approach is not working.

Total confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people - Our World in Data

However, you need to look at the big picture. This is by no means over yet. We were sold the lockdown because it flattens the curve and the main reason to do this is so our hospitals do not get overrun. There are no reports of Sweden's hospitals getting overrun. Their economy has not taken the huge hit that ours has.

The lockdown does not stop the virus from killing people, it just slows it down. Epidemiologists and Dr Fauci predict that we will have successive waves of this virus for 1.5 to 2 years. We may have to lockdown again if it gets really bad.

So let's say Sweden achieves herd immunity in a few months, their death toll will stop growing. Countries who have taken the lockdown approach will continue to have deaths and their numbers will grow, passing Sweden.

The only thing that will change this is if an effective vaccine is produced. That could be in 6 months, two years, or never. At this point, I think if a vaccine is produced in 6 months or less, the lockdown approach is probably better. If not, we may find out Sweden's strategy is the better one.

It ain't over till the fat lady sings.

Originally Posted by GoodLife (Post 1759956)

Meet Professor Lockdown. Professor Neil Ferguson, epidemiologist at Imperial College London. I'll get to the pretty lady in a sec.

Attachment 83985

Professor Ferguson's computer models projected 500k deaths in UK, 2.2 million in USA if strict lockdowns and social distancing were not put in place immediately. UK and USA governments listened. He later lowered his estimates drastically, but damage was done.

He just resigned after being caught having the pretty lady, who is married, over to his house a couple times. This was direct violation of UK rules forbidding intermingling of households. According to the Telegraph, “She has told friends about her relationship with Prof Ferguson, but does not believe their actions to be hypocritical because she considers the households to be one" LOL Anyway, the Professor apparently believes you should do as I say, not what I do.

So I am watching reports about Sweden, the only country I know that has not enacted a lockdown to see how they are doing. Their death rate per million (282) is higher than their Baltic neighbors, but much lower than UK, Spain, France, Italy. Our death rate per million in USA is 214. So many think this shows their herd immunity approach is not working.

Total confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people - Our World in Data

However, you need to look at the big picture. This is by no means over yet. We were sold the lockdown because it flattens the curve and the main reason to do this is so our hospitals do not get overrun. There are no reports of Sweden's hospitals getting overrun. Their economy has not taken the huge hit that ours has.

The lockdown does not stop the virus from killing people, it just slows it down. Epidemiologists and Dr Fauci predict that we will have successive waves of this virus for 1.5 to 2 years. We may have to lockdown again if it gets really bad.

So let's say Sweden achieves herd immunity in a few months, their death toll will stop growing. Countries who have taken the lockdown approach will continue to have deaths and their numbers will grow, passing Sweden.

The only thing that will change this is if an effective vaccine is produced. That could be in 6 months, two years, or never. At this point, I think if a vaccine is produced in 6 months or less, the lockdown approach is probably better. If not, we may find out Sweden's strategy is the better one.

It ain't over till the fat lady sings.

Originally Posted by Velvet (Post 1759962)

Just a thought, as the virus mutates, and it is thought that it is already a different strain in Europe and US than it was in Asia, and immunity for one strain does not give immunity for the next strain. So Sweden may well have paid all those deaths in vain.

Originally Posted by roscoguy (Post 1760179)

But this was also the point of the lockdown or self-isolation: IF people had strictly complied for a matter of only about 2 weeks, the same lack of hosts could/would have occurred.

Besides, herd immunity to COVID-19 is still only a theory. Nobody knows whether or not there is actually any immunity at all, and if there is, how long it lasts.

Other nations seem to have had very good results with their strict lockdown strategies, such as South Korea & Greece.

Originally Posted by Tom53 (Post 1760622)

Personally, I'm tired of all the studies that come out with different results and contradict each other, so I look at numbers not estimates.

Originally Posted by catlady1955@aol.com (Post 1760205)

Sweden has advantages that we don’t. At any sign of illness they can go on paid sick leave and they have socialized medicine.

Originally Posted by Skunky1 (Post 1760234)

The pain will continue until the lesson is learned

Originally Posted by Debi-G (Post 1760624)

The affair was pointed out as being hypocritical by telling everyone else to socially distance themselves, yet he stepped outside his home to have an affair with someone he did not live with...

Originally Posted by jimjamuser (Post 1760740)

Herd immunity depends on the positive CV people having long term 100% immunity, of which most Medical experts are skeptical. They could be reinfected or transmit it. Many unknowns.

Originally Posted by ffresh (Post 1760755)

Unfortunately, the numbers are fictitious too. All we know is what we're told - whether it's true or false is another matter.

Fred

Originally Posted by jimjamuser (Post 1760737)

The UK, USA, and Italy were late to their shutdowns. Only China and S. Korea had a TRUE lockdown. S. Korea was early. They are now playing baseball. The US and UK have not resumed such activities.

Originally Posted by DanBrew (Post 1760983)

A vaccine will be released to the public only when the appropriate individuals can profit from it. Oh well, make a buck anyway you can.

Originally Posted by Tom53 (Post 1760659)

Interesting read..

Why experts are questioning two hyped antibody studies in coronavirus hotspots | World news | The Guardian

Interesting paragraph..

"Both studies used an antibody test made by Premier Biotech company that has not been approved by the FDA and comes with an acknowledgment that it can record false positives."


Just an excerpt, but explains my reasons for being tired of studies.