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-   -   Another Week Of No Hurricanes Forecast (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/weather-talk-515/another-week-no-hurricanes-forecast-352469/)

sounding 08-26-2024 07:24 AM

1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by RICH1 (Post 2364190)
weather is what old people talk about...and now it's Hurricane season adding additional stress to the heart..

Fortunately, global warming makes the tropical atmosphere more stable, which inhibits tropical cyclone development. This science of this trend is explained at the Weather Club.

CybrSage 08-26-2024 07:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Two Bills (Post 2364109)
I think El Niño should be bombed, or assassinated.
Two really lousy, wet, cool summers, now in UK.
My tomatoes are still bl**dy green.
What Global Warming?

I heard green tomatoes are great when fried. So good, they made a movie about it!

CybrSage 08-26-2024 07:30 AM

Global warming is created by pirates. As the number of pirates dropped, temps went up. This is truth, the data shows it. Anyone who disagrees redises to follow the science and must be canceled!

Yes, I am showing that correlation is not causation. Something many people forget.

https://donhillson.wordpress.com/wp-...1/03/graph.jpg

sounding 08-26-2024 07:33 AM

1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by CybrSage (Post 2364192)
What does the temp anomaly mean on the graph? What is the expected norm being deviated from? Is it the Milkanovitch Cycles temp?

Please ask this question today (Aug 26) at 1 PM at Bridgeport for greater explanation. However, an anomaly is a deviation of the mean of at least 30 years of data. The AMO & PDO (which are on 60-year cycles) are not derived from the Milankovitch cycles (which are on 40,000 to 120,000 year cycles). The AMO and PDO do affect tropical storm activity.

CybrSage 08-26-2024 07:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sounding (Post 2364199)
Please ask this question today (Aug 26) at 1 PM at Bridgeport for greater explanation. However, an anomaly is a deviation of the mean of at least 30 years of data. The AMO & PDO (which are on 60-year cycles) are not derived from the Milankovitch cycles (which are on 40,000 to 120,000 year cycles). The AMO and PDO do affect tropical storm activity.

So the temp is water and not atmosphere.
Using charts with missing vital info (such as what temps are being shown, especially when air temps were also mentioned) causes confusion.
Not an attack, just a note to help you be clear in the future.

airstreamingypsy 08-26-2024 07:46 AM

I never realized that weather could be this boring.

golfing eagles 08-26-2024 07:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CybrSage (Post 2364198)
Global warming is created by pirates. As the number of pirates dropped, temps went up. This is truth, the data shows it. Anyone who disagrees redises to follow the science and must be canceled!

Yes, I am showing that correlation is not causation. Something many people forget.

https://donhillson.wordpress.com/wp-...1/03/graph.jpg

post hoc ergo propter hoc

sounding 08-26-2024 08:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CybrSage (Post 2364203)
So the temp is water and not atmosphere.
Using charts with missing vital info (such as what temps are being shown, especially when air temps were also mentioned) causes confusion.
Not an attack, just a note to help you be clear in the future.

The AMO and PDO graphs are ocean index temperature data - and very important in short-term climate change. Most don't know this because the media will not talk about this data because it exposes the fraud behind the CO2 control knob theory. The Weather Club talk will discuss this and more in detail in November ... The Villages Weather Club

sounding 08-26-2024 08:03 AM

1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by airstreamingypsy (Post 2364206)
I never realized that weather could be this boring.

Pirates have a different opinion.

nn0wheremann 08-26-2024 08:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Two Bills (Post 2364109)
I think El Niño should be bombed, or assassinated.
Two really lousy, wet, cool summers, now in UK.
My tomatoes are still bl**dy green.
What Global Warming?

Your lousy wet is the result of our fish storms, tropical cyclones that develop and sputter out over the eastern Atlantic instead of intensifying and heading west to North America

fdpaq0580 08-26-2024 09:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfing eagles (Post 2364212)
post hoc ergo propter hoc

Utway usday athay eanma estionquay arcmay(?)
😃🤭

jimjamuser 08-26-2024 12:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sounding (Post 2363913)
Three reasons.
1 - Sections of the Atlantic are beginning to cool.
2 - Sahara dust continues.
3 - Tonga is still creating upper atmospheric warming - which inhibits tropical convection.

# 3 Tonga has a minimal effect on world weather. Interesting fact .....hurricane Beayl was the EARLIEST cat 5 Atlantic Hurricane on RECORD. There is STILL an above normal probability (90%) of a major Hurricane before Sept. 24. Sept 15 is the peak on the graph of all US hurricanes.
Note........I don't think that the Sahara dust is STILL coming, but I need to check that out to be sure.

jimjamuser 08-26-2024 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimjamuser (Post 2364310)
# 3 Tonga has a minimal effect on world weather. Interesting fact .....hurricane Beayl was the EARLIEST cat 5 Atlantic Hurricane on RECORD. There is STILL an above normal probability (90%) of a major Hurricane before Sept. 24. Sept 15 is the peak on the graph of all US hurricanes.
Note........I don't think that the Sahara dust is STILL coming, but I need to check that out to be sure.

In Wikipedia there is an article all about the Tonga Eruption. About on the 11 th paragraph down is this statement. "Later calculations indicate that it was UNLIKELY to have any global cooling effects". Much further down in the article it is stated that "greenhouse gas emissions remain the MAJOR determinant of risk"
.....Also - "Peak Saharan dust runs from late June through mid-August"

jimjamuser 08-26-2024 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sounding (Post 2363990)
The Atlantic and Pacific are 2 different oceans -- separated by North America. However, like the Atlantic, the Pacific storm season also started late. The really interesting thing is that while the Atlantic is showing early signs of cooling, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has been steady cooling for over 7 years -- which is part of the reason why the Northwest Rockies are getting hit with early season snows -- a great reminder that global warming is not global.

"global warming is NOT global"-------that is an unusual statement because, by definition Global Warming means it IS Global. Climate Scientists record the temperatures from ALL parts of the world. That how they know that the Earth has been increasing in warming for the last 30 years.

jimjamuser 08-26-2024 01:27 PM

"Sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic are trending 1.8 deg F above normal. It is worse in the Gulf of Mexico."


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