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jimjamuser 11-03-2022 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vermilion Villager (Post 2154176)
10 years of data is not cherry picking. If using your theory that the world is actually cooling then surely you must agree that during a 10 year period It is highly improbable that a city in the northern part of the northern hemisphere does not have one record low temperature in a 10 year period… But does have 14 record high temperatures. Your glacier question demands affirmation of your statement. Sorry....the world is not cooling just because you say it is. I seen people like you before… You try to portray yourself as the educated scientist simply stating facts that the rest of us are too unintelligent to understand. Anyone disputing your statements is immediately branded as someone who doesn't understand the facts. When does this weather club meet? There are several of us that like to attend your next meeting. That should be wild!

And in this corner representing world cooling is.............
And in this corner representing Global Warming is............
Shake hands now and come out debating

Byte1 11-03-2022 12:54 PM

Well, just keep up your "the sky is falling, the sky is falling" and I am sure someone will take notice. Personally, since my choice is to live in this world and because I have already sowed my seed to further the population effort, I will just sit back and enjoy my next 20 years on this great world. Unlike you, I have no intention of trying to convince others that we need to reduce the population. Nature is already doing what it can to assist in that effort. You complain about hurricanes and tornadoes, cars and motorcycles causing deaths and then worry about being over populated. I appreciate what we have done in this country because I have lived in the most polluted cities in the world. I have witnessed airline flights diverted because the air pollution was so bad that there was not enough viability to land safely. I have walked through business areas of cities where you could not see the tops of buildings because of the smog. Our country has cleaned up the air we breath since the 1900's. Scientists are predicting that Earth will be hit by a giant asteroid in our near future. Do you believe them? After all, they are scientists and you believe THOSE experts. If you do believe them, then you can quit worrying about climate control, because there won't be anyone around to benefit from your worry.
Don't get me wrong, even though I believe that we have come a long way in cleaning up the air pollution, I still think we can do better. But, I still plan on smoking my BBQ and driving my fossil fuel burner, as long as I can get away with it.

jimjamuser 11-03-2022 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tuccillo (Post 2154182)
OK, a teaching moment. Basically, heat is transferred by convection, conduction, and radiation. A blanket traps heat by reducing convective and conductive losses. A greenhouse stays warm by reducing the convective loss of the heat gained from solar radiation. CO2 in the atmosphere reduces the net longwave radiative loss to space. There can also be positive feedbacks such as a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor and therefore have more clouds which will further reduce longwave radiative losses to space but also can reduce incoming shortwave radiation. It gets complicated and, yes, there are lots of equations and we write lots of code to solve those equations. However, the equations are based on first principals, laboratory work, and field studies to collect data.

Thanks, OK I can follow that. Maybe instead of a "blanket", the better analogy of the "shroud" (?) in the upper atmosphere would be something like a reflective net that has gotten out of balance and is reflecting more longwave radiation (heat) back to earth while blocking more or less short wave radiation from the sun.
......Basically from my layman's perspective, I have READ that the OVERALL results are a PREDICTION that the earth will be warming for the next 30 years. Now, however, it is your analysis that there will be manmade heating, but it will or may be inconsequential in degree. I stated that Dr Doom believes in your 3rd outcome of excessive heat. I imagine that Dr.Doom has access to expert opinions and information that I do NOT. It would be nice to know upon WHAT he bases HIS conclusion???????

tuccillo 11-03-2022 01:14 PM

No, CO2 doesn't impact incoming solar radiation, at least not directly - wrong wave lengths. I ambiguously worded a sentence in the previous post. Additional clouds can reduce incoming solar radiation that reaches the ground. CO2 induced warming can lead to additional clouds. At the risk of stating the obvious, modeling the clouds correctly in the climate models is of some importance. It impacts longwave radiation cooling of the atmosphere (yes, longwave flux divergence in the atmosphere is typically negative), the incoming solar that reaches the ground, and incoming solar absorption by the atmosphere which creates heating.

I believe that we will continue to see anthropogenic warming, to some degree, for the foreseeable future. Whether it will turn out to be an existential threat is, in my opinion, to be determined. Those who believe we are facing an existential threat are probably basing it on climate model simulations and probably the 8.5 scenario. To be clear, there are a lot of uncertainties. Nobody knows for sure. As with almost anything that is complex, the odds of it happening are based on a probability function.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimjamuser (Post 2154222)
Thanks, OK I can follow that. Maybe instead of a "blanket", the better analogy of the "shroud" (?) in the upper atmosphere would be something like a reflective net that has gotten out of balance and is reflecting more longwave radiation (heat) back to earth while blocking more or less short wave radiation from the sun.
......Basically from my layman's perspective, I have READ that the OVERALL results are a PREDICTION that the earth will be warming for the next 30 years. Now, however, it is your analysis that there will be manmade heating, but it will or may be inconsequential in degree. I stated that Dr Doom believes in your 3rd outcome of excessive heat. I imagine that Dr.Doom has access to expert opinions and information that I do NOT. It would be nice to know upon WHAT he bases HIS conclusion???????


jimjamuser 11-03-2022 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Byte1 (Post 2154215)
Well, just keep up your "the sky is falling, the sky is falling" and I am sure someone will take notice. Personally, since my choice is to live in this world and because I have already sowed my seed to further the population effort, I will just sit back and enjoy my next 20 years on this great world. Unlike you, I have no intention of trying to convince others that we need to reduce the population. Nature is already doing what it can to assist in that effort. You complain about hurricanes and tornadoes, cars and motorcycles causing deaths and then worry about being over populated. I appreciate what we have done in this country because I have lived in the most polluted cities in the world. I have witnessed airline flights diverted because the air pollution was so bad that there was not enough viability to land safely. I have walked through business areas of cities where you could not see the tops of buildings because of the smog. Our country has cleaned up the air we breath since the 1900's. Scientists are predicting that Earth will be hit by a giant asteroid in our near future. Do you believe them? After all, they are scientists and you believe THOSE experts. If you do believe them, then you can quit worrying about climate control, because there won't be anyone around to benefit from your worry.
Don't get me wrong, even though I believe that we have come a long way in cleaning up the air pollution, I still think we can do better. But, I still plan on smoking my BBQ and driving my fossil fuel burner, as long as I can get away with it.

I appreciate your opinion and it is nice that you have traveled the world. And your opinion and views are shared by a large % of the people of our great (after WW2) country. And I am sure that you are putting veggie burgers on the barbie to do your part to decrease cow flatulence which could increase heat reflection from the upper atmosphere. Yes, all the "baby steps" to prevent Global warming and restore the world's glaciers are greatly appreciated.

We are all doing our best to leave the next generations a better world. We don't want a Glacier National park without Glaciers

jimjamuser 11-03-2022 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tuccillo (Post 2154224)
No, CO2 doesn't impact incoming solar radiation, at least not directly - wrong wave lengths. I ambiguously worded a sentence in the previous post. Additional clouds can reduce incoming solar radiation that reaches the ground. CO2 induced warming can lead to additional clouds. At the risk of stating the obvious, modeling the clouds correctly in the climate models is of some importance. It impacts longwave radiation cooling of the atmosphere (yes, longwave flux divergence in the atmosphere is typically negative), the incoming solar that reaches the ground, and incoming solar absorption by the atmosphere which creates heating.

I believe that we will continue to see anthropogenic warming, to some degree, for the foreseeable future. Whether it will turn out to be an existential threat is, in my opinion, to be determined. Those who believe we are facing an existential threat are probably basing it on climate model simulations and probably the 8.5 scenario. To be clear, there are a lot of uncertainties. Nobody knows for sure. As with almost anything that is complex, the odds of it happening are based on a probability function.

OK thanks, I guess that we can agree on the "indirectly" part. I was hoping that you might want to share an opinion on Dr DOOM's statement about Florida since it MAY (?) start affecting your golf game during increasingly HOT summers starting next summer. of course, if you are a snowbird then it would be just academic.

tuccillo 11-03-2022 02:17 PM

We will probably continue to see global temperatures increase. The real interest, however, is regional in nature. We aren’t really able to do regional climate simulations so far, at least with any fidelity. Nobody knows for sure how serious a problem we have. I wouldn’t stress to much over this. You will be dead before the stuff hits the fan, assuming stuff is going to hit the fan. Your kids, grandkids, I can’t speak for them.


Quote:

Originally Posted by jimjamuser (Post 2154228)
OK thanks, I guess that we can agree on the "indirectly" part. I was hoping that you might want to share an opinion on Dr DOOM's statement about Florida since it MAY (?) start affecting your golf game during increasingly HOT summers starting next summer. of course, if you are a snowbird then it would be just academic.


Vermilion Villager 11-03-2022 02:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimjamuser (Post 2154207)
And in this corner representing world cooling is.............
And in this corner representing Global Warming is............
Shake hands now and come out debating

:1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl: I kick his butt back to the ice age!:crap2:

Byte1 11-03-2022 03:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimjamuser (Post 2154225)
I appreciate your opinion and it is nice that you have traveled the world. And your opinion and views are shared by a large % of the people of our great (after WW2) country. And I am sure that you are putting veggie burgers on the barbie to do your part to decrease cow flatulence which could increase heat reflection from the upper atmosphere. Yes, all the "baby steps" to prevent Global warming and restore the world's glaciers are greatly appreciated.

We are all doing our best to leave the next generations a better world. We don't want a Glacier National park without Glaciers

Sorry, but I eat rib eye steaks and triple burgers every chance I get. The day I eat a fake burger will be the day that cows, pigs, dogs and any other meat bearing animals are extinct. In my opinion man was not created with K9 teeth to eat grass. Speaking of flatulence, I do my part in the contribution of well digested food to produce a quantity when there are no cows around to blame it on. Like I said before, I have no control over global warming or global cooling, so I see no reason to be concerned about a few warmer or colder degrees in the weather that might/MIGHT happen in the next 20 years of my life. When you all get done with your climate changing and increase the temps up North a few degrees during the winter, I might move back to the woods. This flat, sandy state is kind of boring to look at, but I enjoy the warm weather.

ThirdOfFive 11-03-2022 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Byte1 (Post 2154260)
Sorry, but I eat rib eye steaks and triple burgers every chance I get. The day I eat a fake burger will be the day that cows, pigs, dogs and any other meat bearing animals are extinct. In my opinion man was not created with K9 teeth to eat grass. Speaking of flatulence, I do my part in the contribution of well digested food to produce a quantity when there are no cows around to blame it on. Like I said before, I have no control over global warming or global cooling, so I see no reason to be concerned about a few warmer or colder degrees in the weather that might/MIGHT happen in the next 20 years of my life. When you all get done with your climate changing and increase the temps up North a few degrees during the winter, I might move back to the woods. This flat, sandy state is kind of boring to look at, but I enjoy the warm weather.

Amen!

If God didn't intend for people to eat animals he wouldn't have made them out of meat!

jimjamuser 11-03-2022 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tuccillo (Post 2154243)
We will probably continue to see global temperatures increase. The real interest, however, is regional in nature. We aren’t really able to do regional climate simulations so far, at least with any fidelity. Nobody knows for sure how serious a problem we have. I wouldn’t stress to much over this. You will be dead before the stuff hits the fan, assuming stuff is going to hit the fan. Your kids, grandkids, I can’t speak for them.

To a certain extent, the stuff has ALREADY hit the fan. The Gulf was at record temperatures recently and supercharged hurricane IAN. Many people died and monetary losses were at a record high. Property taxes have doubled in the last few years in Florida. When people go to the state park north of Key West to snorkel dive in shallow water, they will find less living Coral on the reefs. The Mississippi River is in a near-record drought and will raise the cost of many items including food for US citizens and will increase food insecurity at countries beyond the US borders.

And I have probably NOT thought of every problem!

tuccillo 11-03-2022 05:00 PM

Supercharged? Really? There have been several cat4 and cat5 hurricanes that have hit Florida in the past. This has been researched. Hurricane intensity might increase in the future. Might increase. Frequency has not increased. Please stop with the nonsense.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimjamuser (Post 2154276)
To a certain extent, the stuff has ALREADY hit the fan. The Gulf was at record temperatures recently and supercharged hurricane IAN. Many people died and monetary losses were at a record high. Property taxes have doubled in the last few years in Florida. When people go to the state park north of Key West to snorkel dive in shallow water, they will find less living Coral on the reefs. The Mississippi River is in a near-record drought and will raise the cost of many items including food for US citizens and will increase food insecurity at countries beyond the US borders.

And I have probably NOT thought of every problem!


fdpaq0580 11-03-2022 06:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sounding (Post 2154117)
If man caused the start of global warming, then man caused the end of global cooling -- or is that not correct?

Not correct! Man did not end global cooling or start global warming. Man's pollution, industrial waste, destruction of land and ocean habitat has helped to speed up (not start or create) global warming.
But. I suspect you already know this. I think that you just like yanking others chains. 😎

jimjamuser 11-03-2022 07:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Byte1 (Post 2154260)
Sorry, but I eat rib eye steaks and triple burgers every chance I get. The day I eat a fake burger will be the day that cows, pigs, dogs and any other meat bearing animals are extinct. In my opinion man was not created with K9 teeth to eat grass. Speaking of flatulence, I do my part in the contribution of well digested food to produce a quantity when there are no cows around to blame it on. Like I said before, I have no control over global warming or global cooling, so I see no reason to be concerned about a few warmer or colder degrees in the weather that might/MIGHT happen in the next 20 years of my life. When you all get done with your climate changing and increase the temps up North a few degrees during the winter, I might move back to the woods. This flat, sandy state is kind of boring to look at, but I enjoy the warm weather.

True about the FLAT part being boring and no hills weaken the leg muscles.

jimjamuser 11-03-2022 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tuccillo (Post 2154287)
Supercharged? Really? There have been several cat4 and cat5 hurricanes that have hit Florida in the past. This has been researched. Hurricane intensity might increase in the future. Might increase. Frequency has not increased. Please stop with the nonsense.

I can't stop because I believe what I say. We all have to stand by our beliefs. One man's nonsense is another man's gospel of truth! I am a true believer, but I have an open mind to others' opinions if they back them up with some facts.

HORNET 11-07-2022 07:01 PM

False info on global warming by politicians

fdpaq0580 11-07-2022 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HORNET (Post 2155714)
False info on global warming by politicians

The ones that hang out with big oil, industrialists and major polluters. You're right.

sounding 11-07-2022 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fdpaq0580 (Post 2155728)
The ones that hang out with big oil, industrialists and major polluters. You're right.

All of Al Gore's climate forecasts failed. Name one oil company climate forecast that failed.

sounding 11-10-2022 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimjamuser (Post 2154333)
I can't stop because I believe what I say. We all have to stand by our beliefs. One man's nonsense is another man's gospel of truth! I am a true believer, but I have an open mind to others' opinions if they back them up with some facts.

Here is more DATA to help explain glacier silence ... Glacier saga | Climate Etc.


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