We can measure clouds -- but we can not accurate duplicate them in computer models. Worse yet, is when you add CO2 as contributing factor -- the models fail even faster.

Ether way you are right,, just a matter of waiting for the proper time,, remember when we were told ,, by experts that by now we would be freezing starving ,in the dark??

Not exactly right...Higher global temperatures *cause* higher atmospheric CO2 and H2O which causes decreased temperature deltas in the atmosphere which diminishes turbulent weather. Global temperature and atmospheric CO2 is very low compared to 600K year average...By about 9F from optimal for biolife.

Bingo - you are correct. My CO2 comment was meant to get folks thinking about the absurdities of man-made climate change. Yes, a warmer world does reduce the Equator-Pole temperature gradient, which in turn reduces severe weather -- this is because the Poles warm faster than the Equator. You are also correct in that we are currently experiencing very low CO2 levels compared to the past, which is why greenhouses pump in extra CO2 to make plant growth more efficient. Due to our poor public climate education system, very few realize that we are in 2.5 million year Pleistocene Ice Age, where most of earth's history had no polar ice caps. This and much more is discussed in the Villages Weather Club ... The Villages Weather Club

Yes and Soundings is still trying to convince us summers are getting cooler

Yes -- that is correct -- the summers are getting cooler. It is obvious to those who look at data. Just go to the "Florida Climate Center" and look at the trend of "maximum" temperatures. But that's just in Florida. It can also be seen at the national level just by looking at archived data stored by NOAA -- all located at Asheville, NC -- where I used to coordinate with while in the Air Force. For those who don't have the time to download, plot, and analyze the data, here is a short video of what you'll find ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hs-K_tadveI

Agree the EURO Models out perform the GFS Models. Models are built/programmed based upon atmospheric condtions and sea water temperagture at the time of the storm with super computers. Never heard that these models has anything which would link direct affect of CO2 on present condions.

Original post now ironic. Florida is now facing 155 mph storm and if track stayed at or near Tampa, people in TV would be facing possible catastrophic damages.

True, but only for those who choose to live along nature's playground -- the sea shore. This is why we live in TV land. The Euro currently says this ... Ian is forecast to pass by TV midnight Thursday as it transitions from Cat 1 to TS as it hits Daytona Beach. Remember, Irma passed us a a weakening Cat 1 and changed to a TS after moving farther north. Winds for us are forecast sustained 35 mph and gusts to 60 mph. Plus, during Irma, we were on the right side (or dirty side) during its passage -- while with Ian we will be on the weaker side (the left side of movement). If the model holds true, I expect no worse conditions than what we had with Irma.

"Yes -- that is correct -- the summers are getting cooler. It is obvious to those who look at data. "


Umm, no, that is totally incorrect. Suggest more research with legitimate sources - not just from climate denier/conspiracy sites.

U.S. sweltered through third-hottest summer on record | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

What about the rainfall totals to an already saturated ground and are the retention ponds at near capacity? What say you.

The answer you will get is thermometer was in wrong location to accurately record temperature.

Instead of believing the "narrative" just try plotting the "data" for yourself. There is no conspiracy with data. Here is the Florida Climate Center data ... Downloadable Data - Florida Climate Center And here is the national NOAA data site ... Index of /pub/data/ushcn/v2.5 Let me know what you find.

Soundings, maybe you missed my question. The concern in TV is the rainfall amount projected to be 13 inches.

Sounds good to me. SE Florida is still in a drought. Don't forget to turn your lawn sprinkles off.

I guess whoever was looking for more hurricanes in TV had their prayer answered. I just love that no matter what happens, we can always blame it on climate change. And then, of course, blame climate change on people.

But but but!!This is not SE Florida. Hopefully we can accommodate 13" of water.

Exactly, they are trying to tell us that hurricanes have gotten worse because of climate change but if you google strongest hurricanes you will see this is not a new occurrence it is just hyped more.

Strongest U.S. Hurricanes

Labor Day Hurricane of 1935: 185-mph in Florida
Hurricane Camille (1969): 175-mph in Mississippi
Hurricane Andrew (1992): 165-mph in Florida
Hurricane Michael (2018): 155-mph in Florida
Hurricane Ida (2021): 150-mph in Louisiana;
Hurricane Laura (2020): 150-mph in Louisiana;
Hurricane Charley (2004): 150-mph in Florida;
1932 Freeport Hurricane: 150-mph in Texas;
1919 Florida Keys Hurricane: 150-mph in Florida

Numerical Weather Prediction models include subroutines to compute the heating (or cooling) rates from longwave and shortwave radiation. The longwave codes account for the effects of CO2 and the CO2 level in an input (along with specific humidity, temperature, modeled clouds, etc.). I don't recall what value I used when I was doing model development at NCEP. CO2 is an important part of the radiative transfer calculations that are performed in these codes. A previous post that suggesting some sinister element to the inclusion of CO2 in the radiative transfer calculations is comical, at best. The ECMWF IFS model (in it's many versions) has had a small performance advantage over the NCEP GFS code (in it's many versions) for the last 40 years as measured by the 500mb anomaly correlation coefficient. Both models have improved over the years at about the same rate. However, it is a little bit like comparing apples to oranges. The IFS has a later data dump and I believe they dedicate more computing resources to the simulation than NCEP because NCEP has many more modeling requirements.

So nice to see you posting. I always appreciate your insights as well as Mike’s Weather Page when we have a hurricane.

Just when you’re needed most, you’re back! :)

Noted Charlie and Andew. Both were fast moving small storms. Ian just hit with 155 mph and affected much larger area of Florida and was in SW Florida for hours. No matter what happens, $ amounts of damages will increase exponentially due to more and more people moving into Florida.