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Originally Posted by golfing eagles
Not at all.
First of all the researchers in the article cited 3 different possible scenarios. None of them signal the end of civilization nor even suggest "the fat lady is just warming up"
Second, they are retrospectively comparing histories of 8 INFLUENZA epidemics since 1700 and extrapolating to possible COVID 19 future scenarios. Interesting, but hardly definitive. After all, just look at the early models that suggested 2 million + American deaths
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You asked for epidemiologists expertise, I gave it to you. Now you discount their opinion. Nobody is talking about the end of the world here. If we are in the first few months of a pandemic scenario that could last 2 years, as these epidemiologists say, then saying the fat lady is just warming up is quite logical.
The CIDRAP report stressed that no matter which scenario actually occurs, governments must be prepared for at least another 18-24 months of significant covid 19 activity.
The CIDRAP report compared the current coronavirus pandemic to past influenza outbreaks, stressing that SARS-CoV-2 cannot be compared to SARS or MERS, as these two viruses behaved in “substantially different” ways than the current coronavirus outbreak and that influenza pandemics are more comparable.
Dr. Moore is medical director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP). Dr. Lipsitch is the director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health. John Barry is a professor at Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine. Dr. Osterholm is director of CIDRAP, University of Minnesota Regents Professor, and McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health.
Be glad to see any experts you can come up with who have different scientific opinions.