[graciegirl]

Originally Posted by golfing eagles

And you know this HOW???

Unless you are a virologist or epidemiologist with the CDC or WHO with a specialty in the pathogenesis of single stranded RNA viruses, your statement is PURE CONJECTURE

Until and unless we get some hard figures, some genuine data that can be trusted on who is sick, what they are sick with, what did they die of …., until then, the virologists and epidemiologists with the CDC or WHO with a specialty in the pathogenesis of single stranded RNA viruses will have difficulty with their projections.

I bet a lot of them are ready to BITE.

[amexsbow]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

They are not having corona parties in Sweden so everyone gets infected, they have told seniors and at risk people to stay home. Those that go out are told to practice social distancing. You are not required to go out and mingle, just like here as we relax the rules. Nobody is going to kill you if you stay home and take precautions.

Herd immunity does not require 100% get infected, just enough so that the virus dies out from lack of hosts.

People are social animals, without social contact society dies and with it civilization. If we are to survive as a nation we must be pragmatic regarding our reaction to the dangers of the virus. The virus will not go away. Viruses which were prevalent decades ago are still around but not epidemic. If we do not open up our country we will destroy what took hundreds of years to create. People who are at risk or fearful can continue to self isolate. Those who want to live should be allowed to carry on with life as it was before the virus. Do we not drive because we might be killed in a car accident? Do people not smoke because they might die from cancer? If we allow bureaucrats and politicians to dictate our lives how long before they tell us what to eat and drink; what to wear and how to wear it. I am 74 and my group still plays pickleball. We would rather be free to choose how to live and die. People die, it should be their choice how they go. I will go with a smile on my face.

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by golfing eagles

And you know this HOW???

Unless you are a virologist or epidemiologist with the CDC or WHO with a specialty in the pathogenesis of single stranded RNA viruses, your statement is PURE CONJECTURE

Actually she's right, the fat lady is just warming up, according to epidemiologists

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/sites/def...nt-part1_0.pdf

Originally Posted by GoodLife

Lets see. The scientist whose phony models scared the world into enacting strict lockdowns and social distancing doesn't see fit to follow the rules himself. Reminds me of a mayor who closed all gyms but kept going himself.

The mayor example is not the same thing. A better example is you find out the carpenter you hired is having an affair. Do you fire him because of the affair? He could be doing perfectly fine with the work you hired him to do. And if he isn’t, does it really have anything to do with the affair? That was really my question.

[JanetMM]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

Meet Professor Lockdown. Professor Neil Ferguson, epidemiologist at Imperial College London. I'll get to the pretty lady in a sec.

Attachment 83985

Professor Ferguson's computer models projected 500k deaths in UK, 2.2 million in USA if strict lockdowns and social distancing were not put in place immediately. UK and USA governments listened. He later lowered his estimates drastically, but damage was done.

He just resigned after being caught having the pretty lady, who is married, over to his house a couple times. This was direct violation of UK rules forbidding intermingling of households. According to the Telegraph, “She has told friends about her relationship with Prof Ferguson, but does not believe their actions to be hypocritical because she considers the households to be one" LOL Anyway, the Professor apparently believes you should do as I say, not what I do.

So I am watching reports about Sweden, the only country I know that has not enacted a lockdown to see how they are doing. Their death rate per million (282) is higher than their Baltic neighbors, but much lower than UK, Spain, France, Italy. Our death rate per million in USA is 214. So many think this shows their herd immunity approach is not working.

Total confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people - Our World in Data

However, you need to look at the big picture. This is by no means over yet. We were sold the lockdown because it flattens the curve and the main reason to do this is so our hospitals do not get overrun. There are no reports of Sweden's hospitals getting overrun. Their economy has not taken the huge hit that ours has.

The lockdown does not stop the virus from killing people, it just slows it down. Epidemiologists and Dr Fauci predict that we will have successive waves of this virus for 1.5 to 2 years. We may have to lockdown again if it gets really bad.

So let's say Sweden achieves herd immunity in a few months, their death toll will stop growing. Countries who have taken the lockdown approach will continue to have deaths and their numbers will grow, passing Sweden.

The only thing that will change this is if an effective vaccine is produced. That could be in 6 months, two years, or never. At this point, I think if a vaccine is produced in 6 months or less, the lockdown approach is probably better. If not, we may find out Sweden's strategy is the better one.

It ain't over till the fat lady sings.

That is why I am so torn. Spanish Flu back in 1918-1920 came in waves while social distancing and wearing masks. Weren’t there 500,000,000 deaths worldwide? What to do, what to do?

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by mtdjed

Your statement would apply to almost all comments made by TOTV contributors to this topic. People are only offering their opinions.

Read this and tell me if epidemiologists (not me) think the fat lady is about to sing.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/sites/def...nt-part1_0.pdf

see figure 1, we are currently on the left side of the timeline showing projected waves of the virus

[amexsbow]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

Read this and tell me if epidemiologists (not me) think the fat lady is about to sing.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/sites/def...nt-part1_0.pdf

Thank you for providing proof of my post. Those of us who are willing to live life as we see fit should not be isolated by fiat. Those who want to isolate themselves should do so and not cast aspersions against those who do not want to isolate themselves. Freedom of choice, my body my choice is what the progressives preach but do not adhere to. (I am a conservative)

[Tom53]

Sweden has a rate of just over 12% deaths per infected, the US is just under 6%. If we followed Sweden's plan we could have conceivably had 2,526,486 infected and 149,620 deaths at this point.

Deaths per million is nothing more than a statistic, and leads to a false sense of security. San Marino has a death rate of 1208/million, over 4 times US and Sweden, which resulted in 41 dead, yes 41!

Deaths per infection is reality!

So it comes down to choice, do I put my money on the chances of getting the virus, or do I go all in on the chances of surviving it.

Numbers don't lie, but they can be misused.

[golfing eagles]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

Actually she's right, the fat lady is just warming up, according to epidemiologists

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/sites/def...nt-part1_0.pdf

Not at all.

First of all the researchers in the article cited 3 different possible scenarios. None of them signal the end of civilization nor even suggest "the fat lady is just warming up"

Second, they are retrospectively comparing histories of 8 INFLUENZA epidemics since 1700 and extrapolating to possible COVID 19 future scenarios. Interesting, but hardly definitive. After all, just look at the early models that suggested 2 million + American deaths

[toeser]

Originally Posted by golfing eagles

And you know this HOW???

Unless you are a virologist or epidemiologist with the CDC or WHO with a specialty in the pathogenesis of single stranded RNA viruses, your statement is PURE CONJECTURE

Based upon how both organizations have done so far, I would put my faith elsewhere.

[fdpaq0580]

Originally Posted by golfing eagles

Agree 100% for INDOOR environments. Completely unnecessary OUTDOORS

Here are the findings of a recent study:

"Three hundred and eighteen outbreaks with three or more cases were identified, involving 1245 confirmed cases in 120 prefectural cities. We divided the venues in which the outbreaks occurred into six categories: homes, transport, food, entertainment, shopping, and miscellaneous. Among the identified outbreaks, 53.8% involved three cases, 26.4% involved four cases, and only 1.6% involved ten or more cases. Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport (108; 34.0%; note that many outbreaks involved more than one venue category). Most home outbreaks involved three to five cases. We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases. The first salient feature of the 318 identified outbreaks that involved three or more cases is that they all occurred in indoor environments. anAlthough this finding was expected, its significance has not been well recognized by the community and by policy makers.[/B] Indoors is where our lives and work are in modern civilization. The transmission of respiratory infections such as SARS-CoV-2 from the infected to the susceptible is an indoor phenomenon."

Now here is a question I would really like a legitimate answer to:

I have seen dozens of people driving alone in their car with the windows up and wearing a mask. WHY???. I'd like to hear from any of those people as to what they are thinking, since I can't come up with a reason.

I can only answer for me. I live close to the grocery store. I choose to wear my n95 while shopping there. After loading my groceries in my car I drove home (with the windows down,mind you). When I pulled into my garage I realized I was still wearing my mask. Since it hadn't been uncomfortable, I just didn't think to remove it. Silly me.?.

[Jacob85]

I am watching New Zealand which had a strict lockdown and is now starting with Phase 2 to open their economy with 19 deaths the last I heard! Is easy to talk about deaths like they are just numbers but these are people. New Zealand will have their economy as well as losing fewer people! This sounds much better to me then heard immunity!

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by golfing eagles

Not at all.

First of all the researchers in the article cited 3 different possible scenarios. None of them signal the end of civilization nor even suggest "the fat lady is just warming up"

Second, they are retrospectively comparing histories of 8 INFLUENZA epidemics since 1700 and extrapolating to possible COVID 19 future scenarios. Interesting, but hardly definitive. After all, just look at the early models that suggested 2 million + American deaths

You asked for epidemiologists expertise, I gave it to you. Now you discount their opinion. Nobody is talking about the end of the world here. If we are in the first few months of a pandemic scenario that could last 2 years, as these epidemiologists say, then saying the fat lady is just warming up is quite logical.

The CIDRAP report stressed that no matter which scenario actually occurs, governments must be prepared for at least another 18-24 months of significant covid 19 activity.

The CIDRAP report compared the current coronavirus pandemic to past influenza outbreaks, stressing that SARS-CoV-2 cannot be compared to SARS or MERS, as these two viruses behaved in “substantially different” ways than the current coronavirus outbreak and that influenza pandemics are more comparable.

Dr. Moore is medical director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP). Dr. Lipsitch is the director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health. John Barry is a professor at Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine. Dr. Osterholm is director of CIDRAP, University of Minnesota Regents Professor, and McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health.

Be glad to see any experts you can come up with who have different scientific opinions.

[Ben Franklin]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

They are not having corona parties in Sweden so everyone gets infected, they have told seniors and at risk people to stay home. Those that go out are told to practice social distancing. You are not required to go out and mingle, just like here as we relax the rules. Nobody is going to kill you if you stay home and take precautions.

Herd immunity does not require 100% get infected, just enough so that the virus dies out from lack of hosts.

Thanks, but I didn't ask how Sweden was doing it, and you can not say, if one stays home and takes precautions, there is nothing to worry about. One still needs groceries and medicine, at minimal. Even if both are delivered, how many hands have touched the product? The virus stays active up to 24 hours on cardboard, 2-3 days on plastic and metal and 4 days on glass.

Now, about my only questions...

[Ben Franklin]

Originally Posted by tvoyager

So please search ex dr Fauci employee arrested. It is a bit long but WOW,On YouTube it will blow your mind. If someone would post a link if they are able.

Wondering why some people see one person making as unprovable assertion (by the way she just wrote a book - maybe she's hawking) and take it as gospel truth, while ignoring all other scientists. SMH. Talk about herd mentality.