[spinner1001]

Originally Posted by Rainger99

NOAA issues its most aggressive hurricane season forecast on record

Does anyone have statistics about their forecasting skill?

Talking about predictions is fun! Making predictions is even more fun!!

[opinionist]

Geoengineering is weather control. Who benefits?

Originally Posted by mickey100

Climate Change.

The earth has always had changes in climate. Man made weather modification programs are creating "climate change". The Villages is not immune to what is happening.

The government is dimming the sun, HAARP (electro magnetic pulsing to interfere with weather patterns) and fun stuff like cloud seeding, stratospheric aerosol injections are aiding in the quite unusual storms, droughts and new terminology, stratospheric rivers. There is no longer secrecy in the fact that this is going on world wide. You can see it in the skies over The Villages quite often.

TN has passed a bill against weather modification over the skies of TN. Not sure it maters due to the global interactions world wide air space but at least TN gets it and cares.

Drought in FL but they say get ready for the worst hurricane seasons ever so be prepared for insurance hikes. Yeah The Villages is no different than anywhere else with a Wizzard of OZ pulling weather strings. San Francisco, Los Angeles and Dubai get it - floods due to cloud seeding.

At least The Villages is inland and further above sea level. Tornados (scare me) and lightning are the biggest threat in The Villages to me. The Villages does pretty well through hurricanes. Insurance hikes due to coastal issues yep every year normal. With our "climate change" weather is on steroids now.

[FredMitchell]

Originally Posted by Rainger99

According to the Office of Coastal Management, the U.S. has an average of 18 weather and climate disasters annually.

In 2023, there were 28 weather and climate disasters with losses exceeding $1 billion. The combined total cost of these 2023 disasters was $93.1 billion.

I do not see insurance companies lowering rates.

These data are not nearly sufficient to support any reasonable estimate of what insurance rates would be in the future. They don't even mention the amounts covered by insurance.

Property insurance is a financial business that sells contingent claims contracts to owners looking to put a cap on potential losses on their assets over some time period, typically one year. In that simplified model, the companies must achieve a higher return than the roughly 5.4% available just by purchasing 1 year US Treasury Bills.

The contracts specify the contingencies that may be used to trigger the option to make a claim. The "rate" really is not just set by the gross amount of expected claims.
It should not be a surprise that weather losses are increasing. Even if weather were not getting any worse, the total property capital increases annually from new assets and inflation of replacement costs on previously existing real property.

[graciegirl]

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC

On a day to day basis often get it wrong

I think most of us do not need advanced degrees in meteorology to see that the world does seem to be getting warmer and it appears this tornado season to have caused a serious increase in the intensity and numbers of bad storms in the Midwest.

What if anything we can do Nationally and globally is probably the issue to argue. I have lived long enough to believe that no matter the worries, people aren't going to give up their mode of transportation or the manufacture of goods. Insurance prices are based on graphs and solid statistics and if it gets more expensive to pay for damages and insurance, it's going to affect our pocketbooks, no matter where we live. We just got a notice this week that our home insurance will soon be cancelled.

I see that the guy across the street just had one of those big fancy generators put in next to his house and we bought a generator last year. My guess is that this Hurricane season is going to be mighty attention getting in Florida.

I think we are going to have more and more intense Hurricanes this year. I hope I'm wrong.

[Southwest737]

Originally Posted by Normal

Having zero hurricanes last year to several this year would certainly be a jump. Hurricanes come and go, we had several forecasted last year but none came even close. I don’t think the natural warming of the earth is doing anyone any favors, but it is a natural turn we must all endure. Some who chose to locate on the beach will endure more than those who chose to live on a mountain top.

2023 Atlantic hurricane season ranks 4th for most-named storms in a year | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

[Normal]

2023 from the NOAA
According to the new forecast, we can expect to see from 14 to 21 named storms with winds of 39 mph or greater. Of those, six to 11 of them could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or greater. Out of those hurricanes, from two to five of them could become major hurricanes, the report said. NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.

Fruition of Predictions
Atlantic Hurricane Season 2023 recap: 1 landfalling hurricane and it hit Florida

Here are the top 5 US Hurricanes
Labor Day Hurricane of 1935: 185-mph in Florida
Hurricane Camille (1969): 175-mph in Mississippi
Hurricane Andrew (1992): 165-mph in Florida
Hurricane Michael (2018): 155-mph in Florida
Hurricane Ian (2022): 150-mph in Florida; Hurricane Ida (2021): 150-mph in Louisiana; Hurricane Laura (2020): 150-mph in Louisiana; Hurricane Charley (2004): 150-mph in Florida; 1932 Freeport Hurricane: 150-mph in Texas; 1919 Florida Keys Hurricane: 150-mph in Florida

[graciegirl]

Originally Posted by Normal

2023 from the NOAA
According to the new forecast, we can expect to see from 14 to 21 named storms with winds of 39 mph or greater. Of those, six to 11 of them could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or greater. Out of those hurricanes, from two to five of them could become major hurricanes, the report said. NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.

Fruition of Predictions
Atlantic Hurricane Season 2023 recap: 1 landfalling hurricane and it hit Florida

Here are the top 5 US Hurricanes
Labor Day Hurricane of 1935: 185-mph in Florida
Hurricane Camille (1969): 175-mph in Mississippi
Hurricane Andrew (1992): 165-mph in Florida
Hurricane Michael (2018): 155-mph in Florida
Hurricane Ian (2022): 150-mph in Florida; Hurricane Ida (2021): 150-mph in Louisiana; Hurricane Laura (2020): 150-mph in Louisiana; Hurricane Charley (2004): 150-mph in Florida; 1932 Freeport Hurricane: 150-mph in Texas; 1919 Florida Keys Hurricane: 150-mph in Florida

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weath...active-storms/

[Normal]

Originally Posted by graciegirl

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weath...active-storms/

Yes, their over active season for 2023 fell short. We didn’t see 2-5

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by Kelevision

You don’t even live here do you?

Living here 4 plus years!

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by Michael G.

But gets it right on a hour by hour basis.

When I stick my head out the windows, see dark skies and drizzle my Forcast record for heavy storms is almost perfect.

[Gatorfan1]

Originally Posted by Rainger99

According to the Office of Coastal Management, the U.S. has an average of 18 weather and climate disasters annually.

In 2023, there were 28 weather and climate disasters with losses exceeding $1 billion. The combined total cost of these 2023 disasters was $93.1 billion.

I do not see insurance companies lowering rates.

Eight property companies have filed through state to lower premiums on average 5.9%. The new laws passed by the state are making a difference and helping stabilize the markets.

[Rainger99]

Originally Posted by Gatorfan1

Eight property companies have filed through state to lower premiums on average 5.9%. The new laws passed by the state are making a difference and helping stabilize the markets.

Which companies have filed?

[mikemalloy]

Originally Posted by Rainger99

NOAA issues its most aggressive hurricane season forecast on record

Remind me of last years dire predictions and how wrong they were. Apparently they didn’t see their shadow this year.

[graciegirl]

Originally Posted by Normal

Yes, their over active season for 2023 fell short. We didn’t see 2-5

This is the prediction for THIS year. Let's see what happens? If they are right, I will try not to be too annoying when I remind you.