[Normal]

Originally Posted by graciegirl

This is the prediction for THIS year. Let's see what happens? If they are right, I will try not to be too annoying when I remind you.

It was also their prediction for last year.

[New Englander]

Originally Posted by graciegirl

I think most of us do not need advanced degrees in meteorology to see that the world does seem to be getting warmer and it appears this tornado season to have caused a serious increase in the intensity and numbers of bad storms in the Midwest.

What if anything we can do Nationally and globally is probably the issue to argue. I have lived long enough to believe that no matter the worries, people aren't going to give up their mode of transportation or the manufacture of goods. Insurance prices are based on graphs and solid statistics and if it gets more expensive to pay for damages and insurance, it's going to affect our pocketbooks, no matter where we live. We just got a notice this week that our home insurance will soon be cancelled.

I see that the guy across the street just had one of those big fancy generators put in next to his house and we bought a generator last year. My guess is that this Hurricane season is going to be mighty attention getting in Florida.

I think we are going to have more and more intense Hurricanes this year. I hope I'm wrong.

It's nice to see you here on the Forum Gracie.

[ithos]

The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by ithos

The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

It might have already fallen

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Rainger99

According to the Office of Coastal Management, the U.S. has an average of 18 weather and climate disasters annually.

In 2023, there were 28 weather and climate disasters with losses exceeding $1 billion. The combined total cost of these 2023 disasters was $93.1 billion.

I do not see insurance companies lowering rates.

In the last 10 years the land and ocean temperatures on average have been increasing and the oceans rising due to that HEAT. The added heat is caused by heat reflecting from the upper atmosphere more strongly due to CO2 increases caused by man's activities including Automobile exhaust. Likely Florida and other countries will see more and stronger hurricanes. New Internal Combustion Engines are being purchased in large quantities worldwide - so, each year, the problem will get worse.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Normal

2023 from the NOAA
According to the new forecast, we can expect to see from 14 to 21 named storms with winds of 39 mph or greater. Of those, six to 11 of them could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or greater. Out of those hurricanes, from two to five of them could become major hurricanes, the report said. NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.

Fruition of Predictions
Atlantic Hurricane Season 2023 recap: 1 landfalling hurricane and it hit Florida

Here are the top 5 US Hurricanes
Labor Day Hurricane of 1935: 185-mph in Florida
Hurricane Camille (1969): 175-mph in Mississippi
Hurricane Andrew (1992): 165-mph in Florida
Hurricane Michael (2018): 155-mph in Florida
Hurricane Ian (2022): 150-mph in Florida; Hurricane Ida (2021): 150-mph in Louisiana; Hurricane Laura (2020): 150-mph in Louisiana; Hurricane Charley (2004): 150-mph in Florida; 1932 Freeport Hurricane: 150-mph in Texas; 1919 Florida Keys Hurricane: 150-mph in Florida

In 2004 there was "Charlie" and so many others that they had to go to the Greek Alphabet for names.

[Blueblaze]

Originally Posted by Rainger99

According to the Office of Coastal Management, the U.S. has an average of 18 weather and climate disasters annually.

In 2023, there were 28 weather and climate disasters with losses exceeding $1 billion. The combined total cost of these 2023 disasters was $93.1 billion.

I do not see insurance companies lowering rates.

No kidding!

And I notice that there are also now 2, 781 billionaires in the world! I don't think there was a single one when I was a kid. Do you think those two figures could be related? It sure is weird to think that maybe all that "global warming" is making billionaires!

But you know something? Even though there were 16 named storms in 2008 (the year of cat 5 Ike and cat 5 Rita, both of which passed over my Texas house), there were less than half as many billionaires in 2008 (it was the 1st year there were more than 1,000). 2008 had 16 named storms, 50 billion (2008) dollars in damage, and over 1000 deaths. Despite your alarming statistics, 2008 was the worst weather year in recent memory. My insurance then, and 12 years later, when I moved to Florida, was ONE QUARTER of what I paid last year, in a smaller and hurricane-resistant house, in a town that has never experienced a major hurricane or flood.

So, despite your "28" number, the number of hurricanes has actually decreased (one cat 3 in 2023), while weather damage merely doubled in the last 12 years (because the dollar is worth half what it was then).

Meanwhile, insurance bills have quadrupled, and the number of billionaires has increased by 150%.

Weird how that "global warming" works, huh?

[Keefelane66]

A couple of weeks ago someone speculated the Jet Stream was more southern cooling us off. Another forecast gone bad.

[ithos]

Originally Posted by Rainger99

According to the Office of Coastal Management, the U.S. has an average of 18 weather and climate disasters annually.

In 2023, there were 28 weather and climate disasters with losses exceeding $1 billion. The combined total cost of these 2023 disasters was $93.1 billion.

I do not see insurance companies lowering rates.

What would you expect with inflation out of control the last three years?

What Is the Inflation for Each Year?
An average rate of inflation can be calculated for each year:

In 2023, the average rate of inflation was 4.1%.
In 2022, the average rate of inflation was 8.0%.
In 2021, the average rate of inflation was 4.7%.
In 2020, the average rate of inflation was 1.2%.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. "Historical Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)."

[cjrjck]

They are predicting an above average hurricane season in the Atlantic and below average in the central Pacific. It's a cycle thanks to La Niña. Cooler water in the central Pacific and warmer water in the Atlantic. So I guess it matters where you live. My friends in Hawaii are glad it is not an El Niño year.

[Sabella]

There’s your first mistake believing anything any information or statistics these days that comes from a government agency.

[Bealman]

Originally Posted by MrChip72

Weather modelling has advanced more in the past 5 years than the previous 25. AI should accelerate that even more. Predicting weather is no longer "guessing" based on tea leaves and historical data.

Modeling is only as good as the data going in/. Considering that the National weather service estimates 30% of of the actual temperature in the US alone, modeling will not work. CO² is the lowest in the cycle of climate volatility.

[simplesimonsaid]

Originally Posted by ithos

What would you expect with inflation out of control the last three years?

What Is the Inflation for Each Year?
An average rate of inflation can be calculated for each year:

In 2023, the average rate of inflation was 4.1%.
In 2022, the average rate of inflation was 8.0%.
In 2021, the average rate of inflation was 4.7%.
In 2020, the average rate of inflation was 1.2%.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. "Historical Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)."

Might as well add this year's. 3.3%

[Cliff Fr]

IMO the dollar impact of Hurricanes and other natural disasters is higher due to the huge increase in the number of buildings and highways. The population is much higher everywhere leading to more buildings and infrastructure. There's also inflation to consider. A dollar from 1970 is worth at least $7 now.

[Cliff Fr]

Originally Posted by Kelevision

As someone who has lived in Lake County( not the villages) my entire life, I can say with 100% certainty that everything is worse now than it was in my lifetime.

I've lived in Central Florida for 68 years. I think a big factor in the increased heat here is deforestation. Another factor is much much more pavement and rooftops.