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-   -   Coronavirus no worse than the 1957 Flu (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/current-events-news-541/coronavirus-no-worse-than-1957-flu-309443/)

GoodLife 07-26-2020 10:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by graciegirl (Post 1808886)
I always wonder whether the goal is to educate or show power. To further understanding or to be right.

I wonder this about posters and public figures on this issue.

I wish that the internet MSN News Feed did not FEED us opinion pieces, even from valid sources as headlines. I wish there was a clear distance between science and politics.

I wish all could see that we got another bug from that area which is gonna badly harm us. It requires a much more complicated vaccine. I don't know that anything other than our own individual choices can protect us. I don't know what will happen but it is NO hoax and no plot. It is a terrible killer with awful spikes all over it and it kills a lot of older people and harms a lot of younger people and there is no cure for it.

Most of the threads I start are based on scientists and scientific papers. "here's what this Nobel Prize winner is saying, here's what these highly cited epidemiologists are saying." I find most people do not understand or even read the links provided. so sometimes I will link a news article about the science if it correctly summarizes the main points. Of course I hope the science that shows herd immunity threshold is much lower than previously thought because that means this will be over sooner rather than later. You would think everyone would want that! I have never called this virus a hoax and am probably more careful than 90% of commenters here.

Your MSN news feed is full of garbage. Facts and stats are manipulated, opinion poses as news. Most of it is panic porn.

Yes covid 19 kills a lot of older people. 80% of deaths are over 65. But more than 50% of those deaths occur in nursing homes. Average time from entering nursing home to death is 12 months, WHEN THERE IS NO PANDEMIC.

As for harming a lot of young people, it's just not true. Look at the CDC stats by age group in link below.

So far 36 kids 14 and under have died from covid 19. All of them had preexisting health problems. So far this year 205 kids 14 and under have died from pneumonia. According to CDC more people 44 and less have died from pneumonia this year than from covid 19.

Provisional COVID-19 Death Counts by Sex, Age, and State | Data | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Chi-Town 07-26-2020 10:04 AM

My first memory of a pandemic in this country was the Hong Kong Flu of 1968. My mother was sick in bed for days and days, and I had to call an ambulance to take my grandfather to the hospital where he recovered but was never the same healthwise. These people were really sick. That flu really took a toll on the elderly. But this covid-19 virus is the scariest I have ever seen.

1968 Pandemic (H3N2 virus) | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC

NancyLee 07-26-2020 10:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeeCee Dubya (Post 1808802)
I called bull**** on this COVID-19 scare way back in March. Nothing more than a garden-variety flu virus.
Understand that the world economy was not destroyed by COVID-19. It was destroyed by the heavy-handed and alarmist restrictions applied by governments all over the world on their citizens.

The garden-variety flu virus does not leave after effects that last as long as a person lives. A person's lungs will never be the same. One should listen to the medical experts more often. It would be better and safer than keeping one's head in the sand.

GoodLife 07-26-2020 10:08 AM

Originally Posted by graciegirl View Post
According to this the 1957 Asian Flu killed between 70,000 and 115,000 people in the U.S. This is a very good accounting of how they developed the vaccine. Covid-19 as of yesterday had killed 148,000 Americans.


Quote:

Originally Posted by JimJohnson (Post 1808984)
That’s a fact that debunks this OP,s thread. Why do some want this Covid 19 to be downplayed. Covid is in its early stages and is already far more deadly than the 1957 flu. If this Covid would have been taken seriously in Mar, maybe, but under the current handling, it is a disaster.

LOL I will take the CDC number of 116,000 as fact over a history.com link

In February 1957, a new influenza A (H2N2) virus emerged in East Asia, triggering a pandemic (“Asian Flu”). This H2N2 virus was comprised of three different genes from an H2N2 virus that originated from an avian influenza A virus, including the H2 hemagglutinin and the N2 neuraminidase genes. It was first reported in Singapore in February 1957, Hong Kong in April 1957, and in coastal cities in the United States in summer 1957. The estimated number of deaths was 1.1 million worldwide and 116,000 in the United States.

1957-1958 Pandemic (H2N2 virus) | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC

Bucco 07-26-2020 10:13 AM

Note in 1957....

We, as a country, were actually communicating with others in the world.

We had a plan in place, which was put into place as soon as we became aware. As in January of 2020.

To my knowledge, our country still does not have a plan....we were told one was being "worked on"

GoodLife 07-26-2020 10:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by airstreamingypsy (Post 1808952)
The 57 flu killed a lot more young people than covid, which kills mainly the old

Covid isn't finished killing. Why don't you wait til it's finished before you make projections.

Did you miss this part in my OP?

Balloux estimates total deaths for USA will be 220,000, we are at 148,462 today.

jimjamuser 07-26-2020 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoodLife (Post 1808711)
Francois Balloux is the Director of the UCL Genetics Institute,[1] and a Professor of Computational Systems Biology at University College London. Together with his colleague Dr Lucy Van Dorp, they led a team of researchers in the analysis of the first large-scale analysis of 7666 complete SARS-Cov-2 genomes, the agent of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Balloux recently compared the Covid 19 pandemic of 2020 to the 1957 flu. I was just a little tyke at that time and don't remember anything about it. But if you read articles about it, apparently the world did not go into a frenzy of panic. Life went on. Maybe we were tougher then.

Infection Fatality Rate

1957 Flu 0.67%
2020 Covid 0.65% (CDC number)

Stats for both for the whole World, UK and USA with deaths per million. Balloux estimates total deaths for USA will be 220,000, we are at 148,462 today. Deaths per day in USA are currently about 1000 per day, I think this will start going down in a month if this new surge of cases gets us to herd immunity threshold. We'll see.

Deaths per million are very similar for both diseases in UK and USA, but the 57 flu killed a lot more people per capita in the world than covid 19 has so far. Covid 19 would need to kill about 3 million people worldwide to equal the deaths per million rate of 57 flu. (current world total is 641,889) If the low herd immunity threshold theory is correct I doubt this will happen, as there are many places in the world that seem to have reached it. We'll see.

Attachment 85425

Herd immunity is a "happy talk" joke played on the US, that is about downplaying the severity of CV, which has and will KILL thousands in the US - as it has been proven in Sweden. It is pushed by one or 2 cable channels that specialize in propaganda and Soviet style indoctination. Also a few radio hosts.
Hundreds of REAL medical scientists and Doctors (the best in America) have signed a letter telling politicians to go back to "shut-down"mode. People can either believe these professionals or they can put their heads in the sand - listen to "happy talk" and the "down-pllayers". If you listen to the "down-players", then you and your friends have a chance of DYING. If you listen to the Professionals you have a good chance of LIVING. I choose living, just like I choose to snap my seat belt on when I drive. So, like me, YOU must choose. Think and choose wisely! Also ask yourself, "What is the motivation behind the "down-players"?????

Gizemo33 07-26-2020 10:23 AM

Good life, I have read your very detailed message twice and have reached the conclusion that you do not think the current worldwide panic and pandemic is actually as bad as it's being reported.

If I have misinterpreted what you were trying to say I extend my apology in advance and suggest you do not read any further.

If I'm correct, then I would suggest you just leave your house - go to the bars - go to the restaurants - don't wear a mask - don't take any precautionary measures and just say the hell with it.

In addition, please make sure that you DO NOT FOLLOW any of the precautions that I am going to state below;

Remember you should always wear a mask.

I would rather wear a mask now then a respirator later.

Remember correct social distancing -- 6 feet BACK or you could windup 6 feet UNDER.

Doing everything in your power to end COVID-19 is not a choice it is a NECESSITY!!!

It is time to stop the reopening of schools while we are in the middle of a pandemic. Children can die from COVID-19.

What about the exposure to the teachers - especially the older teachers.

This is the battle you should all be undertaking NOW!!! Public demonstrations need to start immediately.

PS -- don't tell Roxanne





Quote:

Originally Posted by GoodLife (Post 1808711)
Francois Balloux is the Director of the UCL Genetics Institute,[1] and a Professor of Computational Systems Biology at University College London. Together with his colleague Dr Lucy Van Dorp, they led a team of researchers in the analysis of the first large-scale analysis of 7666 complete SARS-Cov-2 genomes, the agent of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Balloux recently compared the Covid 19 pandemic of 2020 to the 1957 flu. I was just a little tyke at that time and don't remember anything about it. But if you read articles about it, apparently the world did not go into a frenzy of panic. Life went on. Maybe we were tougher then.

Infection Fatality Rate

1957 Flu 0.67%
2020 Covid 0.65% (CDC number)

Stats for both for the whole World, UK and USA with deaths per million. Balloux estimates total deaths for USA will be 220,000, we are at 148,462 today. Deaths per day in USA are currently about 1000 per day, I think this will start going down in a month if this new surge of cases gets us to herd immunity threshold. We'll see.

Deaths per million are very similar for both diseases in UK and USA, but the 57 flu killed a lot more people per capita in the world than covid 19 has so far. Covid 19 would need to kill about 3 million people worldwide to equal the deaths per million rate of 57 flu. (current world total is 641,889) If the low herd immunity threshold theory is correct I doubt this will happen, as there are many places in the world that seem to have reached it. We'll see.

Attachment 85425


GoodLife 07-26-2020 10:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimjamuser (Post 1809010)
Herd immunity is a "happy talk" joke played on the US, that is about downplaying the severity of CV, which has and will KILL thousands in the US - as it has been proven in Sweden. It is pushed by one or 2 cable channels that specialize in propaganda and Soviet style indoctination. Also a few radio hosts.
Hundreds of REAL medical scientists and Doctors (the best in America) have signed a letter telling politicians to go back to "shut-down"mode. People can either believe these professionals or they can put their heads in the sand - listen to "happy talk" and the "down-pllayers". If you listen to the "down-players", then you and your friends have a chance of DYING. If you listen to the Professionals you have a good chance of LIVING. I choose living, just like I choose to snap my seat belt on when I drive. So, like me, YOU must choose. Think and choose wisely! Also ask yourself, "What is the motivation behind the "down-players"?????

I rest my case with this prime example of not understanding or reading scientific links posted previously in the thread. :) Not even capable of understanding a graph which shows unmistakable evidence of low herd immunity thresholds.

I wonder what is the motivation of the "up players?"

GoodLife 07-26-2020 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gizemo33 (Post 1809014)
Good life, I have read your very detailed message twice and have reached the conclusion that you do not think the current worldwide panic and pandemic is actually as bad as it's being reported.

If I have misinterpreted what you were trying to say I extend my apology in advance and suggest you do not read any further.

If I'm correct, then I would suggest you just leave your house - go to the bars - go to the restaurants - don't wear a mask - don't take any precautionary measures and just say the hell with it.

In addition, please make sure that you DO NOT FOLLOW any of the precautions that I am going to state below;

Remember you should always wear a mask.

I would rather wear a mask now then a respirator later.

Remember correct social distancing -- 6 feet BACK or you could windup 6 feet UNDER.

Doing everything in your power to end COVID-19 is not a choice it is a NECESSITY!!!

It is time to stop the reopening of schools while we are in the middle of a pandemic. Children can die from COVID-19.

What about the exposure to the teachers - especially the older teachers.

This is the battle you should all be undertaking NOW!!! Public demonstrations need to start immediately.

PS -- don't tell Roxanne

For the 1000th time. I am more careful than 90% of commenters here. Don't need or use a mask because I do not enter any buildings except home, and stay 20 feet or more from others when outside. Of course I think covid 19 is bad, mostly for the old or unhealthy. I think the panic and response with lockdowns for everybody was overdone. The media boosts the panic because most of them do not want the economy to recover "too soon" We would probably be over this already if we had just told the old and the unhealthy to stay home and let the young and healthy keep working and achieve herd immunity faster.

36 kids 14 and under have died from covid 19 in the USA. Pneumonia kills more people under 44 than covid 19. See CDC link previously posted.

Sweden kept schools open and had ZERO deaths in 19 and under age group. They had covid positives in 53 per 100,000 teachers and could not say if those teachers were infected while working or while having coffee or dinner at their open restaurants and bars.

jimjamuser 07-26-2020 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Villages Kahuna (Post 1808788)
I suffered from that flu in ‘57 as a freshman in college. About half my fraternity house spent almost two weeks in bed. I’ve never been sicker in my life, absolutely an illness I wouldn’t want to repeat. I don’t recall that the pandemic back then lasted as long as this.

Should we all feel better that the mortality rate of the 1957 flu was about the same as COVID-19? I doubt that my wife and I could survive being that sick again at our age now.

True that! Great informative and personal opinion.

justjim 07-26-2020 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Fletcher (Post 1808811)
It seems that some people continue to look for excuses to not accept that Covid-19 is a serious health threat.

The “Reds under the Bed” theory isn’t sound logical thought.

Covid-19 May or May not kill you however for certain if contracted it can leave serious after effects.

If you shop hard enough you can find pretty well any theory you want. Isn’t Elvis still alive!!

A rational person would take precautions and not want to spread the problem. It does not seem to me it attacking just right or Left thinkers.

Covid-19 doesn’t know your name your race your colour or your political thinking.

Be kind and stay safe.

Well said and spot on.

jimjamuser 07-26-2020 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeeCee Dubya (Post 1808802)
I called bull**** on this COVID-19 scare way back in March. Nothing more than a garden-variety flu virus.
Understand that the world economy was not destroyed by COVID-19. It was destroyed by the heavy-handed and alarmist restrictions applied by governments all over the world on their citizens.

I call BS on the fact that the world economy is not crushed, only the US. Europe, especially Germany is back thriving! As is Japan, New Zealand, S.Korea, Australia and our neighbor Canada. WE are the ones that missed the boat. Incidentally on a per capita basis, ready for it ? - Florida is the #1 worse CV cases and deaths in the WORLD. Let THAT sink in!

jimjamuser 07-26-2020 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 72lions (Post 1808816)
Please quit with herd immunity BS. Please. 4 million have been identified as positive. Let’s say the number represents 1/2 actually infected. That represents 2% of the population. Herd immunity requires something closer to 50-60% and that assumes antibodies provide long-term immunity which has not been shown. So again, just STOP.

I totally agree Mr Lion. You go big cat. You are roaring out the truth!!!!!!!

Bob Magoon 07-26-2020 11:08 AM

It was called the Asian Flu


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