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-   -   Coronavirus no worse than the 1957 Flu (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/current-events-news-541/coronavirus-no-worse-than-1957-flu-309443/)

graciegirl 07-26-2020 11:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Fletcher (Post 1808811)
It seems that some people continue to look for excuses to not accept that Covid-19 is a serious health threat.

The “Reds under the Bed” theory isn’t sound logical thought.

Covid-19 May or May not kill you however for certain if contracted it can leave serious after effects.

If you shop hard enough you can find pretty well any theory you want. Isn’t Elvis still alive!!

A rational person would take precautions and not want to spread the problem. It does not seem to me it attacking just right or Left thinkers.

Covid-19 doesn’t know your name your race your colour or your political thinking.

Be kind and stay safe.

EXCELLENT POST, sir.

jimjamuser 07-26-2020 12:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by toeser (Post 1808845)
Our population has grown 92% since then. Can you imagine how horrible life would be in this country if our population is 633 million in 2083, or 1,216,500,000 in 2146? The world's biggest problem is population growth, not a pandemic. Both the U.S. population and the world's population has continued to grow right through this pandemic.

You ARE spot on!!!! The population growth problem UNDERLIES all US and world problems. It causes Global Warming. It causes starvation in the Muslim middle east and Northern Africa, whose people migrate northward and have caused problems for a stable Germany and other northern European countries. It promotes PLAGUES like our current CV plague! The US faces the problems of illegal alien migration caused by overpopulation. - A.I. and Robotics could cause future permanent unemployment of 30%. Society is going to be in turmoil for the foreseeable future.

jimjamuser 07-26-2020 12:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoodLife (Post 1808872)
Sorry but no, I won't stop :icon_wink:

It's obvious that many do not read the numerous links I have posted.

To review:

CDC Director recently stated that there are 10 times more asymptomatics than confirmed positives tested. Other scientists think it could be 20 times.

New studies by scientists have discovered that large percentages of populations have T cell immunity to covid 19 from previous exposure to other coronaviruses like the common cold.

UK may already have enough herd immunity to prevent second coronavirus wave, say scientists

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...294v1.full.pdf

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...762v1.full.pdf

Yes antibodies fade with time, but your T and B cells retain memory of the virus and can produce new antibodies if they are needed. T cell memory of Sars 1 tested as effective 17 years after exposure. Antibodies don't need to last forever to stop a pandemic anyway, just a few months will do nicely.

SARS-CoV-2 infection induces robust, neutralizing antibody responses that are stable for at least three months | medRxiv

If you don't understand all the science, just look at graphs of deaths or cases in places like Sweden or New York. Only a small percentage of residents in each place tested positive but their graphs for deaths and cases look the same, rising up to a peak and then descending towards zero. Neither place has had a big surge in new cases. Why? It can't be lockdowns and masks because Sweden did neither. The only explanation is that a herd immunity threshold was reached in both places. There are other countries and states where you see the same thing.

Attachment 85429

Florida has had a big surge in cases because the threshold has not been met here yet. But it looks like the surge in new cases is starting a downward trend, just as I predicted at the beginning of July in another thread. If this downward trend in cases continues then the death totals will start to go down as well in a few weeks.

Attachment 85430

I will remember this Florida prediction and get back about that in 2 or 3 weeks.

jimjamuser 07-26-2020 12:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by graciegirl (Post 1808886)
I always wonder whether the goal is to educate or show power. To further understanding or to be right.

I wonder this about posters and public figures on this issue.

I wish that the internet MSN News Feed did not FEED us opinion pieces, even from valid sources as headlines. I wish there was a clear distance between science and politics.

I wish all could see that we got another bug from that area which is gonna badly harm us. It requires a much more complicated vaccine. I don't know that anything other than our own individual choices can protect us. I don't know what will happen but it is NO hoax and no plot. It is a terrible killer with awful spikes all over it and it kills a lot of older people and harms a lot of younger people and there is no cure for it.

I was thinking that myself. I am sssooo glad that someone had the goob-smackers to write it.

P&WBryant 07-26-2020 12:21 PM

There are none so blind as those who WILL NOT SEE.

Stan P 07-26-2020 12:48 PM

You forgot to mention one thing, we knew it was coming and already had a vaccine ready when it got to the US shores.

jimjamuser 07-26-2020 12:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoodLife (Post 1808994)
Most of the threads I start are based on scientists and scientific papers. "here's what this Nobel Prize winner is saying, here's what these highly cited epidemiologists are saying." I find most people do not understand or even read the links provided. so sometimes I will link a news article about the science if it correctly summarizes the main points. Of course I hope the science that shows herd immunity threshold is much lower than previously thought because that means this will be over sooner rather than later. You would think everyone would want that! I have never called this virus a hoax and am probably more careful than 90% of commenters here.

Your MSN news feed is full of garbage. Facts and stats are manipulated, opinion poses as news. Most of it is panic porn.

Yes covid 19 kills a lot of older people. 80% of deaths are over 65. But more than 50% of those deaths occur in nursing homes. Average time from entering nursing home to death is 12 months, WHEN THERE IS NO PANDEMIC.

As for harming a lot of young people, it's just not true. Look at the CDC stats by age group in link below.

So far 36 kids 14 and under have died from covid 19. All of them had preexisting health problems. So far this year 205 kids 14 and under have died from pneumonia. According to CDC more people 44 and less have died from pneumonia this year than from covid 19.

Provisional COVID-19 Death Counts by Sex, Age, and State | Data | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

True about, " not calling CV a hoax". Kudos. True about nursing homes being a area that spreads CV and needs special attention. Children are more "spreaders" than they are victims of CV. That much is true of ALL statements made today. Keep up the sterling work.

jimjamuser 07-26-2020 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chi-Town (Post 1808996)
My first memory of a pandemic in this country was the Hong Kong Flu of 1968. My mother was sick in bed for days and days, and I had to call an ambulance to take my grandfather to the hospital where he recovered but was never the same healthwise. These people were really sick. That flu really took a toll on the elderly. But this covid-19 virus is the scariest I have ever seen.

1968 Pandemic (H3N2 virus) | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC

Roger that, Townee.

Bucco 07-26-2020 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JimJohnson (Post 1808984)
That’s a fact that debunks this OP,s thread. Why do some want this Covid 19 to be downplayed. Covid is in its early stages and is already far more deadly than the 1957 flu. If this Covid would have been taken seriously in Mar, maybe, but under the current handling, it is a disaster.

First, we could have taken this seriously as early as late January, certainly early February when our intelligence community was doing so. Actually WHO had sent out the first, that i know of, reports to all members through the world as early as January 10.

Why down play it ?

You must understand the differences between 1957 and this year. In 1957, despite the many philosophical differences throughout the world, medicine was never made anything other than a threat to human beings. It had not much impact on P motives or aspirations. Scientists throughout the world talked to each other and shared information with no interference.

Today, and throughout this pandemic, we have failed on every level. Heads of state(s) deciding to interfere with real scientific data, research and suggestions for whatever reason.

This Corona virus has been full of overtones from the beginnings.

I offer a suggestion to try to THINKGLOBALHEALTH for information, and lots of pics addressing the who, what, where and when of this and other pandemics. I am not supplying the link since it "may" inadvertently take you to a page not allowed on here although that is NOT the nature of the site

jimjamuser 07-26-2020 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoodLife (Post 1809023)
I rest my case with this prime example of not understanding or reading scientific links posted previously in the thread. :) Not even capable of understanding a graph which shows unmistakable evidence of low herd immunity thresholds.

I wonder what is the motivation of the "up players?"

I admitt to being old and feeble! Too old to read graphs (like comparing US cases and deaths to European countries). I can BARELY see the graphs with my 20-1000 vision. So I just listen to old audio tapes by Dr. Spock on Star Trek.

Aloha1 07-26-2020 01:47 PM

So many posters here with their own agenda. And a lot of misinformation. Herd immunity is not real?? It's a long standing medical science fact that diseases tend to die out when herd immunity is reached. Hundreds of "medical professionals" want the country shut down again?? Well about 125 people with a connection to medicine did ask that. Dr. Fauci, in response said that would be a mistake.

The facts have no agenda, they are just the facts. The OP is a good researcher and has presented well thought out posts. Stop with the criticism already. If you don't agree, post research to back up your point, not opinion.

The OP has NEVER said the virus is fake, a ruse, nor said anything about not wearing masks. To the contrary, he has been very consistent in his views about this virus, that it is deadly and we should take common sense precautions like wearing masks and social distancing. What the OP HAS said and posted are data points regarding the true state of this virus.

I had the Asian Flu in 1957 and was hospitalized for 5 days because I couldn't shake my 104 degree fever. Sickest I've ever been in my life.

I take this disease seriously and wear a mask when in stores or crowds (which I avoid), carry sanitizer wherever I go, and wash my hands when I come back from a store. But I will not let this virus prevent me from living life.

graciegirl 07-26-2020 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bucco (Post 1809109)
First, we could have taken this seriously as early as late January, certainly early February when our intelligence community was doing so. Actually WHO had sent out the first, that i know of, reports to all members through the world as early as January 10.

Why down play it ?

You must understand the differences between 1957 and this year. In 1957, despite the many philosophical differences throughout the world, medicine was never made anything other than a threat to human beings. It had not much impact on P motives or aspirations. Scientists throughout the world talked to each other and shared information with no interference.

Today, and throughout this pandemic, we have failed on every level. Heads of state(s) deciding to interfere with real scientific data, research and suggestions for whatever reason.

This Corona virus has been full of overtones from the beginnings.

I offer a suggestion to try to THINKGLOBALHEALTH for information, and lots of pics addressing the who, what, where and when of this and other pandemics. I am not supplying the link since it "may" inadvertently take you to a page not allowed on here although that is NOT the nature of the site

March is when the earliest cases were recognized in U.S. Before that was confusion world wide as to what exactly was happening. It was in February when people sickened and began to die in droves in Italy.

I think that not only public health but valid expert doctors and researchers in hospitals in the U.S. should be part of a team of experts that guide us. People do not have to work for the government to be expert on vaccines and communicable diseases. At the time of the Ebola outbreak, The U.S. went without a surgeon general for the better part of two years. It was Vanderbilt's physicians that guided us in the Ebola outbreak. Some members of the staff died in a hospital in Texas before that happened. It is unrealistic to blame people now when no one could have known how bad this would be.

Byte1 07-26-2020 02:03 PM

Oh my, the sky is falling!
Everyone has an opinion. One person on here is decent enough to give us REAL stats so that the rest of us do not need to speculate, and his motive is questioned.
In my opinion, he is merely providing information so that it will put many minds at ease as to exactly how much one needs to worry. In my opinion, you do what you feel you need to do to protect you and yours, and quit worrying what everyone else is doing. Just because one person has an opinion, does not mean that your opinion needs to demand that others conform to your standards. Best way to avoid the virus (in my opinion) is to stay home and accept no visitors. If you wander around in public, it is ONLY your fault if you become infected, not anyone else's that you feel is not protecting you enough.
I enjoy the OP's sharing of his information. I look forward to it. If you do not agree with it, then provide your own counter information.
Personally, I want three facts which will make it very easy to modify my current lifestyle.
I want to know how many COVID 19 hospitalizations in the Sumter Co. portion of the Villages.
I want to know how many related deaths that were CAUSED by COVID 19 in the Villages portion of the Villages.
I want to know how many of the hospitalizations have survived and have been released.

The number of positive tests for infection means nothing unless you test everyone in an area on the same day. EVERYONE. Testing a hundred one day and a thousand on another day and saying that there were more testing positive on the second day is not even scientific.

I believe that this virus has been around a lot longer than just since March. I believe it has been around at least since sometime last year and no one has realized it until this year. Since most folks that die from it have some other health issues, I believe that many have died from it and it was deemed death by the chronic condition. This is my opinion, and I will predict that when this is all over and more investigation is done, we will find out that the reason it is so widespread in such a short period of time, is that it was already here. Just my speculation, of course.

It is also my opinion that mass hysteria helps no one. I am not suggesting that anyone ignore the world situation, but running amok and crying that the sky is falling is not going to make you any healthier or prevent the outcome one bit. However, you may end up with stress related illness.

Sherry8bal 07-26-2020 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeeCee Dubya (Post 1808802)
I called bull**** on this COVID-19 scare way back in March. Nothing more than a garden-variety flu virus.
Understand that the world economy was not destroyed by COVID-19. It was destroyed by the heavy-handed and alarmist restrictions applied by governments all over the world on their citizens.

I totally agree with you!!

The Mountaineer 07-26-2020 02:40 PM

This one is far worse and the 1957 swine flu was terrible
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by GoodLife (Post 1808711)
Francois Balloux is the Director of the UCL Genetics Institute,[1] and a Professor of Computational Systems Biology at University College London. Together with his colleague Dr Lucy Van Dorp, they led a team of researchers in the analysis of the first large-scale analysis of 7666 complete SARS-Cov-2 genomes, the agent of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Balloux recently compared the Covid 19 pandemic of 2020 to the 1957 flu. I was just a little tyke at that time and don't remember anything about it. But if you read articles about it, apparently the world did not go into a frenzy of panic. Life went on. Maybe we were tougher then.

Infection Fatality Rate

1957 Flu 0.67%
2020 Covid 0.65% (CDC number)

Stats for both for the whole World, UK and USA with deaths per million. Balloux estimates total deaths for USA will be 220,000, we are at 148,462 today. Deaths per day in USA are currently about 1000 per day, I think this will start going down in a month if this new surge of cases gets us to herd immunity threshold. We'll see.

Deaths per million are very similar for both diseases in UK and USA, but the 57 flu killed a lot more people per capita in the world than covid 19 has so far. Covid 19 would need to kill about 3 million people worldwide to equal the deaths per million rate of 57 flu. (current world total is 641,889) If the low herd immunity threshold theory is correct I doubt this will happen, as there are many places in the world that seem to have reached it. We'll see.

Attachment 85425

1957 swine flu
Deaths in America: 116,000

2020 coronavirus
Deaths in America: 149,000 (and it’s far from over)


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