[dewilson58]

As usual, Fed is a little slow to act and probably not enough action.

Probably a 50 basis point cut next time they read the historical numbers.

[gatorbill1]

Don't count on it

[tophcfa]

Originally Posted by dewilson58

As usual, Fed is a little slow to act and probably not enough action.

Probably a 50 basis point cut next time they read the historical numbers.

Respectfully disagree. The Federal Reserve’s job is to balance the tightrope of promoting economic growth while simultaneously keeping inflation under control. In my opinion, real inflation (not what’s being reported) does not merit a rate cut. Furthermore, the Fed is supposed to be an independent agency, and bowing to outside influences to lower rates undermines confidence in the agency and is a very bad look.

[dewilson58]

Originally Posted by tophcfa

Respectfully disagree. The Federal Reserve’s job is to balance the tightrope of promoting economic growth while simultaneously keeping inflation under control. In my opinion, real inflation (not what’s being reported) does not merit a rate cut. Furthermore, the Fed is supposed to be an independent agency, and bowing to outside influences to lower rates undermines confidence in the agency and is a very bad look.

Wondering............what do you think "real inflation" is??

I don't think the Fed bowed to anything.........I think the right cut was 50 points, but only did 25 to prove they are not bowing.

[tophcfa]

Originally Posted by dewilson58

Wondering............what do you think "real inflation" is??

I don't think the Fed bowed to anything.........I think the right cut was 50 points, but only did 25 to prove they are not bowing.

In my opinion, real inflation represents the costs of essentials that are necessary for living. For my wife and I, that includes things like healthy food (lean proteins, fruit, and vegetables), utilities, transportation, insurance (healthcare, homeowners (including liability) and auto), property taxes, healthcare costs above insurance premiums, necessary services (HVAC, electrician, plumber, irrigation, lawn and pest, garage door repair) etc…. For younger folks, things like childcare, clothing, education, and rent need to be included as essential. The CPI is a very broad index of goods and services that includes many non essential items and typically understates the inflation rate of essentials. The CPI also represents urban price increases and typically underestimates inflation experienced by rural folks. Add to that, the fact that the fox is watching the henhouse. The inflation numbers are reported by our government, the largest debtor on the planet, with the largest incentive to under report inflation and keep interest rates artificially low. Not to mention the fact that recently people have been fired from the Bureau of Labor statistics for reporting data that certain parties don’t want to believe. But to answer your question about what I think real inflation is, it’s the numbers in my very detailed spreadsheet, where I track all of our essential expenses (already listed above). Based on those actual figures, since Covid inflation has consistently run in double digits versus the significantly lower reported CPI data. Simply going to the grocery store, looking at your insurance and utilities bills, or checking out the price of a new car easily bears out those numbers.

And how do you reconcile the Fed being late to the table cutting rates when the major equity indexes are all at or near their all time highs? The average US citizen would benefit much more from Fed actions aimed at reducing inflation on essentials than cutting rates to keep the stock market propped up.

All that being said, I think we can both agree that the price of greens fees is absolutely an essential component of inflation : )

[dougjb]

I love it when arm chair economists seem to know more than the Fed. In case you didn't know it, among the employees of the Fed are 400 PhD economists armed with an entire floor of computers to help them guide the largest economy the world has ever seen!

So, given my druthers, I would rather rely on experts rather than armchair economists!

[Bwanajim]

Originally Posted by tophcfa

Respectfully disagree. The Federal Reserve’s job is to balance the tightrope of promoting economic growth while simultaneously keeping inflation under control. In my opinion, real inflation (not what’s being reported) does not merit a rate cut. Furthermore, the Fed is supposed to be an independent agency, and bowing to outside influences to lower rates undermines confidence in the agency and is a very bad look.

The Fed made 3 rate cuts in 2024 for a total of 1.0%
Until yesterday the fed made zero cuts in 2025. Hmmmm
I wonder why🤔

[Taltarzac725]

I certainly would not like to see an umpire with a bet on one of the teams that is playing in front of him. Or her.

[psoccermom]

Originally Posted by dewilson58

As usual, Fed is a little slow to act and probably not enough action.

Probably a 50 basis point cut next time they read the historical numbers.

Powell has always been a day late and a dollar short.

[Normal]

Originally Posted by dewilson58

As usual, Fed is a little slow to act and probably not enough action.

Probably a 50 basis point cut next time they read the historical numbers.

No way no how! Have you seen what oil has been doing? The primer for the rest of the market is plummeting in price.

Right now Rig Counts and the Frac Spread have been an accelerant to the dropping price. If the cost to produce goods stays on the deflationary path, there would be zero reasons to decrease the lending rate. Besides, they are waiting for the housing market to decrease to affordability rates and for wages to settle. Maybe we see a quarter point cut if employment moves more or global demographics change oil output?

[chrisinva]

I'm happy with 1/4%. Could have been 1/8 % .

[dewilson58]

Originally Posted by dougjb

I love it when arm chair economists seem to know more than the Fed. In case you didn't know it, among the employees of the Fed are 400 PhD economists armed with an entire floor of computers to help them guide the largest economy the world has ever seen!

So, given my druthers, I would rather rely on experts rather than armchair economists!

Remember the PhD's and computers brought you Transitory Inflation.

[RoboVil]

Originally Posted by tophcfa

Respectfully disagree. The Federal Reserve’s job is to balance the tightrope of promoting economic growth while simultaneously keeping inflation under control. In my opinion, real inflation (not what’s being reported) does not merit a rate cut. Furthermore, the Fed is supposed to be an independent agency, and bowing to outside influences to lower rates undermines confidence in the agency and is a very bad look.

The primary driver of inflation over the last 2 fed meetings have been services, not products. Reducing the interest rates decreases costs for companies across the board. It also will stimulate the housing market. With the latest employment numbers it would have been reasonable to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.

[It's Hot There]

Originally Posted by tophcfa

In my opinion, real inflation represents the costs of essentials that are necessary for living. For my wife and I, that includes things like healthy food (lean proteins, fruit, and vegetables), utilities, transportation, insurance (healthcare, homeowners (including liability) and auto), property taxes, healthcare costs above insurance premiums, necessary services (HVAC, electrician, plumber, irrigation, lawn and pest, garage door repair) etc…. For younger folks, things like childcare, clothing, education, and rent need to be included as essential. The CPI is a very broad index of goods and services that includes many non essential items and typically understates the inflation rate of essentials. The CPI also represents urban price increases and typically underestimates inflation experienced by rural folks. Add to that, the fact that the fox is watching the henhouse. The inflation numbers are reported by our government, the largest debtor on the planet, with the largest incentive to under report inflation and keep interest rates artificially low. Not to mention the fact that recently people have been fired from the Bureau of Labor statistics for reporting data that certain parties don’t want to believe. But to answer your question about what I think real inflation is, it’s the numbers in my very detailed spreadsheet, where I track all of our essential expenses (already listed above). Based on those actual figures, since Covid inflation has consistently run in double digits versus the significantly lower reported CPI data. Simply going to the grocery store, looking at your insurance and utilities bills, or checking out the price of a new car easily bears out those numbers.

And how do you reconcile the Fed being late to the table cutting rates when the major equity indexes are all at or near their all time highs? The average US citizen would benefit much more from Fed actions aimed at reducing inflation on essentials than cutting rates to keep the stock market propped up.

All that being said, I think we can both agree that the price of greens fees is absolutely an essential component of inflation : )

Difficult for the Fed to track inflation and act on numbers for: You & your wife, youngsters, urban vs. rural, etc. They must use a broad brush and be consistent with their baseline index. They look at other things beside the media's two or three numbers.

[Normal]

Originally Posted by RoboVil

The primary driver of inflation over the last 2 fed meetings have been services, not products. Reducing the interest rates decreases costs for companies across the board. It also will stimulate the housing market. With the latest employment numbers it would have been reasonable to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.

Stimulating the housing Market? If anything homes are way overpriced. That investment opportunity left a long time ago. Wages aren’t catching up to affordability anytime soon. Many made a killing on real estate, but like every market there has to be a cool down time. Give it a couple, maybe even a few years.

Most of us still remember the sting of the last market crash caused by bundling and Fannie/Freddie letting people slide into the market with poor credit. It obliterated real estate.