[Barefoot]

Originally Posted by Snowbirdtobe

I believe that TV will recover faster then the rest of the country as the boomers flee the North to retire in TV.

I agree with you .. there is a lot of "pent-up" demand from people who own properties and want to sell before they move to TV. I think when the sluggish market improves, there will be a real jump in TV prices.

[taylor111947]

I'm getting my house ready to put on the market in January (and move to TV ASAP). It's really hard to not think with my heart when I consider what the selling price should be. I have to keep telling myself that 27 years of memories are not worth anything to anyone but me. I think 'staging' the house and removing personal items will help - it will no longer be my house. And, hopefully I'll be headed south soon.

[Barefoot]

Originally Posted by taylor111947

I'm getting my house ready to put on the market in January (and move to TV ASAP). It's really hard to not think with my heart when I consider what the selling price should be. I have to keep telling myself that 27 years of memories are not worth anything to anyone but me. I think 'staging' the house and removing personal items will help - it will no longer be my house. And, hopefully I'll be headed south soon.

As a former real estate broker, I can confirm that "depersonalizing" your home is the right thing to do. Purchasers love neutral surroundings. Improvements to bathrooms and kitchens really pay off. You are smart to know that you can't think with your heart when pricing your home. The biggest mistake that owners make is overpricing their home, and then it gets stale, and eventually sells for less than if it had been priced correctly initially.

Your home should invite prospective purchasers in .. it should sound good (quiet music playing in the background), it should smell good (cinnamon on a low boil on the stove), and it should look good (open all the blinds and drapes, and turn on the overhead lights so your house will be bright and cheery). Unless you live next door to a funeral home, then you should keep those blinds closed.

Good luck with your sale. You'll be so happy with your decision to move to TV.

[l2ridehd]

I track this market in TV very close, and also keep my eye on the market up North. I have responded to many posts on here on this topic and have usually been very positive. Starting in mid 2009 until about March or April 2010 the market was moving up. Somewhere between 6% and 8%. However in May of 2010 it started to reverse and has dropped about 6% over the past 6 months. There is nothing in the near term that will cause it to change, and in fact many things that will cause it to continue down. Probably for the next 12 to 24 months.

I would still be a buyer in this market as you now have the chance to select a more desirable home with those things you want. Mortgage rates are excellent and the selection of properties will never be better. Yes it may drop another 8% to 10%, but trying to catch the exact bottom or top of any market is a fools game.

At some point in the future we will see inflation. In fact I personally believe we will see hyper inflation. Sometime during the tail end of that cycle it will hit housing prices and they will go up dramatically. Probably 36 to 48 months from now. The job market has to improve first for that to happen.

In fact I will make what some will think is a very wild predication. During the next 12 months we will see a 5% to 10% decline in home prices from where they are today and within 5 years you will see homes about 50% to 80% higher then today. My amount of swings may be off a little bit, but you can take the direction of change to the bank.

[Russ_Boston]

L2 - very good analysis IMHO.

I do think the longer end (with higher home prices) will be closer to 8-9 years out.

Increasingly there are signs pointing to a double dip so I think the 10% drop over the next year is right on.

[batman911]

Something to consider. With the large drops in home prices all over Florida (except TV of course) the taxable base is ever shrinking for the local governments. That will mean increases in the RPT rates to maintain the income for the tax users. If that happens, the tax you pay on your Villages property is sure to go up based on a higher tax rate. I believe local prices outside the bubble have also dropped significantly. What do you think?

[inda50]

I think you are right l2ridehd. There seems to be a divergent between new homes and resales. I think new homes sales have probably bottomed in the Villages. They don't seem to be discounted as heavily as before. Perhaps this is a leveling. Outside the Villages they may still be declining.

Resales prices in the Villages, on the other hand seem to going down even though they represent a better value in my opinion.

As for inflation, I don"t think the government can allow a high inflation rate. They have already proven they can maintain low inflation through low interest rates. How long this can go on has yet to be shown. But I believe the alternative is unacceptable to the gov. or any political party. We probably have to muddle through poor economic growth for years to come. My point is prices are unlikely to raise any time soon.

[l2ridehd]

Inflation will happen. It is a fright train headed down the track at break neck speed and it will happen. It is not possible to print money at a rate 3 times GDP and not have it. I am not trying to move this discussion to political, there is enough blame everywhere, only trying to state what has happened recently that all of us need to understand to survive. If inflation does not happen the US will go bankrupt and default on it's debt. I agree that no one wants it but the alternatives are worse. We have spent money like drunken sailors over the past two years (again not going to say is was or was not required, TARP 1 & 2, National Health Care, QE2, 100,000 additional government jobs are all spending increases) and no amount of tax increases or spending cuts can solve the problem which would only cause the downturn in the economy to get worse. The only possible solution is to inflate the currency so the borrowed money to pay for the above can be paid back with money that is worth less. This will cause higher interest rates, a significant increase in inflation and higher unemployment.

The only real question is when. Those of us that figure that out will survive well, those that don't will have a standard of living that will drop by a huge amount. All of us are old enough to remember the 70's. My new car in 1969 cost me $3300, my new one in 1977 cost me $9400. Almost the same car. I had a job move in 1979 and the new home interest rate was 17% That home cost me $63000. Moved again in 1983, home was $175000 and again in 1985 and the home was $265000. The homes were a little different, but not all that much. The only difference today is the magnitude of the issue.

And when we finally move out of that cycle, when interest rates drop back down from double digit, unemployment returns to under 6%, and inflation is back under control, housing prices will rise from current pricing to 50% to 80% from where they are today. Again, the only real question is timing. When will this happen.

[2 Oldcrabs]

New home prices on TV web site, all have a discounted price. In August there was 72 foreclosure in TV ( 2 of thoses were in Bridgepoert @LS). Harry Dent(an economist who predicted the stockmarket crash) believes home prices are going back to 1998-2000 prices. A mortgage is not recomended when you are on a "fixed" income. You have to wonder, how long TV home prices can remain ahead of the rest of the country.

[Ajack]

Originally Posted by 2 Oldcrabs

New home prices on TV web site, all have a discounted price. In August there was 72 foreclosure in TV ( 2 of thoses were in Bridgepoert @LS). Harry Dent(an economist who predicted the stockmarket crash) believes home prices are going back to 1998-2000 prices. A mortgage is not recomended when you are on a "fixed" income. You have to wonder, how long TV home prices can remain ahead of the rest of the country.

Exactly. I wonder how many people are in denial. The bubble has burst and may never return in our lifetimes. If this sounds morbid, take a look at our deficit.

Is it really 72?

[Russ_Boston]

72 (if accurate) represents = 2/10 of 1% of all TV homes (I'm estimating around 35K homes currently, it's probably closer to 40K). That's not bad based on FLA real estate figures.

One thing I've learned in life - never say 'not again in my lifetime' when it comes to economics. Everything, and I mean everything, is cyclical in some manner. It's form may change but everything repeats in self in some fashion.

[eweissenbach]

Originally Posted by Russ_Boston

72 (if accurate) represents = 2/10 of 1% of all TV homes (I'm estimating around 35K homes currently, it's probably closer to 40K). That's not bad based on FLA real estate figures.

One thing I've learned in life - never say 'not again in my lifetime' when it comes to economics. Everything, and I mean everything, is cyclical in some manner. It's form may change but everything repeats in self in some fashion.

Russ, you are so right about the unpredicability of economic issues. I remember in 1983 when I was marketing annuities, we had to show the guaranteed interest of 4% and an intermediate rate (usually 8%) on projections - the current rate at the time was 11-12%. I had customers laugh when I pointed out the intermediate rate of growth, saying "we"ll never see single digit interest rates again in my lifetime". In the late 90s I heard many people, including so-called experts, who were confident that the market would grow by at least 12-15% per year on average for the forseeable future! I remember someone at a conference several years ago stated that "economists have successfully predicted 20 out of the last 2 recessions". Things that are totally unforseen will continue to happen if you live long enough.

[Russ_Boston]

Originally Posted by eweissenbach

Russ, you are so right about the unpredicability of economic issues. I remember in 1983 when I was marketing annuities, we had to show the guaranteed interest of 4% and an intermediate rate (usually 8%) on projections - the current rate at the time was 11-12%. I had customers laugh when I pointed out the intermediate rate of growth, saying "we"ll never see single digit interest rates again in my lifetime".

When I bought my second home in 1989 my older friend said, "you'll never get a rate again like we did. 7% for 30 years. They will never go below that in your lifetime". We'll my rate for my TV home that I'm buying this month, 21 years later, is 4.5% so you never know!

[Ajack]

Originally Posted by Russ_Boston

72 (if accurate) represents = 2/10 of 1% of all TV homes (I'm estimating around 35K homes currently, it's probably closer to 40K). That's not bad based on FLA real estate figures.

One thing I've learned in life - never say 'not again in my lifetime' when it comes to economics. Everything, and I mean everything, is cyclical in some manner. It's form may change but everything repeats in self in some fashion.

Depends on how you look at it. It may be "not bad" for the general population, but it seems a little high for a "retirement community" As far as a "lifetime" is concerned, I was basing it on our "retired people" lifetime, not the general population.

[ConeyIsBabe]

Originally Posted by 2 Oldcrabs

Our home value in Delaware has dropped $100k in the last 18 month. As a want-to-be, it makes it hard to find a comparable in The Villages!

Same with my southern Oregon home