[manaboutown]

This article contains a historical recap of the performance of the S&P 500 which I found quite informative. I just received it today so it is current through 2013. Turn the Page: Outlook for Economy/Stocks in 2014

[dewilson58]

Originally Posted by manaboutown

This article contains a historical recap of the performance of the S&P 500 which I found quite informative. I just received it today so it is current through 2013. Turn the Page: Outlook for Economy/Stocks in 2014

NOW THAT WAS WORTH SHARING!!!!

Thanks

[donb9006]

Originally Posted by manaboutown

This article contains a historical recap of the performance of the S&P 500 which I found quite informative. I just received it today so it is current through 2013. Turn the Page: Outlook for Economy/Stocks in 2014

Originally Posted by dewilson58

NOW THAT WAS WORTH SHARING!!!!

Thanks

It only briefly mentioned the Fed and QE. The Fed and QE are the ONLY reason the numbers are showing "improvement" to the economy.

The Fed has taken on almost $4 TRILLION in debt and given the banks almost $4 TRILLION to offload all the nonperforming crap they're holding. Plus the Fed has brought the discount rate to almost 0% (0.25%). The banks get almost free money. The banks use their "free" money to buy treasuries and other assets including stocks...the interest is more "free" money for them. The "improvements" to the economy are all due to an infusion of $4 TRILLION over the last several years. There's been no REAL growth in the economy, it's all newly "printed" money.

It's like a broke family writing checks with no funds available. Borrowing for everything they spend. It LOOKS like they're doing fine, but they're just going deeper and deeper into debt. The stores SEEM to be doing fine too because the family keeps spending.

How much does the government pump into the economy through other means? SS checks, welfare checks, food stamps, section 8 housing, medicare, medicaid, the military, it's full of money going out into the economy as "printed" money. Over $17 trillion is the federal debt...all that money made it into the "economy", it's why it's been rising. Our economy is based on debt, not REAL assets. The more debt, the better it's doing.

Oh sure, the Fed is "tapering"...but it's still $70 BILLION each and every month getting pumped into the economy to hold it up...give it the illusion it's growing. Sure it looks like it's growing...with "free money" to the tune of $70 billion a month.

You need to know WHY something is happening not just that it is... The stock market is tulip mania because of free money from the Fed. Yellen will print too... Enjoy the ride...until it stops.

[dewilson58]

(Hopefully this one will not be deleted.)

I get the Fed..............but the Fed is not the ONLY reason for improvement......Corporate P/E's are in line and earnings are improving, besides cheap money.

I enjoyed the historical data and comparisons and the presentation of the original link.

Please don't reply and let me know that history does not always repeat.

[TrudyM]

Originally Posted by dewilson58

(Hopefully this one will not be deleted.)

I get the Fed..............but the Fed is not the ONLY reason for improvement......Corporate P/E's are in line and earnings are improving, besides cheap money.

I enjoyed the historical data and comparisons and the presentation of the original link.

Please don't reply and let me know that history does not always repeat.

People (and I have said it myself) who say history repeats itself are always right. Why because if you go back far enough you will find almost any event or one like it in the past someplace.

[donb9006]

Originally Posted by dewilson58

(Hopefully this one will not be deleted.)

I get the Fed..............but the Fed is not the ONLY reason for improvement......Corporate P/E's are in line and earnings are improving, besides cheap money.

I enjoyed the historical data and comparisons and the presentation of the original link.

Please don't reply and let me know that history does not always repeat.

IMO, it is a HUGE and maybe the only reason.

The Fed created cheap money, corporations and individuals take/took advantage of the low interest rates and borrow/borrowed heavily.

We're still in the midst of a depression if you look at the number on welfare, unemployed, UNDERemployed, etc.

50 million citizens are on food stamps, that's 50 million that would be waiting in soup lines if they didn't have electronic debit cards to get their food at Walmart. The stores and food manufacturers all make money from people using their EBT card. Money "created" by the government, given to the poor, and spent on Kraft or Kellogs products. Food corporations push (bribe) politicians to increase SNAP card benefits, it's more money injected into the food business.

We'd have "hobos" again, camps of the homeless, if we didn't have section 8 housing. As it is now, the only homeless are those who for some reason refuse help.

Almost $800 billion a year is spent by the GOVERNMENT on healthcare...Where would the healthcare industry be without that almost $1 trillion every year? That's a lot of money for that one section of the economy.

That money is there because of the Fed manipulation. We're going parabolic in a lot of areas...population, debt, some markets...parabolas don't last.

The "real" economy is hidden because it's not talked about.

The "Fed" is a rich uncle who swoops in with his checkbook to save the day. The only thing is...this rich uncle doesn't have an money...it's nothing but an entry in a ledger. A new debt. They don't have $4 trillion worth of "stuff" backing up their loans. They buy worthless treasuries with worthless "money".

It's always been the same with all past fiat currencies. They've all crashed and burned. Debt based financial systems can't last. They always spiral out of control. Zimbabwe, Weimar Republic, printing lots of money, creating lots of debt...ALWAYS ends badly.

Zimbabwe hid inflation, we're doing the same by "changing the basket of goods" used as the measure of inflation. They've replaced "expensive" things with cheaper to keep "inflation" down. They don't count energy. Have energy prices gone up? It's not counted in the inflation numbers we hear.

Weimar had reparations that were killing the economy. We have the poor and corrupt corporations who buy politicians for favorable regulation/benefits that are killing the econmy. This country will one day end it's world dominance as have all others in the past...The French, Spanish, the English...all had their glory days. All ended. Ours will too.

My money is on a solar CME. We just missed a big one the other day. If the timing had been different, we'd be without power right now...and that's not good for business.

History DOES repeat. The ones who are usually wrong are the ones who say...it's different this time...

[JourneyOfLife]

The S&P 500 index has reached new highs on a nominal basis, but not on a "real" basis (i.e., inflation adjusted)

On an inflation adjusted basis, the S&P 500 index has not reached the level it reached back in 2000 (during the tech bubble peak 13 years ago).


It is still about 7% below it's Inflation adjusted peak.

[dotti105]

Just an update. We rolled over our 401ks which were in the S&P 500 on Jan 10. Not timing the market. Just our target date taking new home purchase and retirement into consideration.

We rolled them over into a "solo 401K" with which we plan to invest for income. Watching the S&P after we rolled out, we feel very fortunate re the timing. It has become much more volatile.

We were on a good run. Not smart, just lucky!

This should be an interesting year in the markets!