The reason for analysts
 

Warren Buffet says that the purpose of market analysts is to make fortune-tellers look good.

Who said she was a she?

I have been an investor for 55 years and was once a stock broker. My entire career was in finance. The simple truth is that no one knows when or how much the next crash will be. If the next crash were to be on the scale of 2008, then nothing is safe. While there were small number of exceptions, virtually everything went down in that crash.

If you really cannot afford to lose the money, then 100% of it should not be in the stock market. I know that 2.5% to 3% in absolutely safe bonds sucks, but at least you will still have your principal. Remember, if your advisors are wrong, neither will write you checks to cover losses.

Having said all that, I expect that the market will do O.K. for the next couple of years. We certainly could have a correction of 10% at any time, but I don't see a 2008 looming anytime soon.

I agree. It appears that you are already conservatively invested. That's about the right mix for a conservative portfolio. You referred to it as aggressive. Maybe you were confused. I wouldn't worry about your money, unless you can not afford to lose even a tiny amount. Most times we make up what we lose within a reasonable time. Hope this helps.

See Post No. 55.

If the so called investment people knew what the market was going to do, they would be millionaires.

Wall Street Roulette.

As I've already said far as Lincoln check what you are paying for management fees. Whatever it is are you getting value for what you are paying? Your post indicates they are of no value to you. It might be your fault. You should be able to call Lincoln and the manager of your 403B and get advice.

On a 403B, check what I say, you should be able to transfer YOUR money into a self directed IRA with no tax penalties. I assume you are no longer working. I doubt your employer is still putting money into your retirement account.

It makes no difference-does it?

Aggressive retirement portfolio. Sound to me like you are in a retirement date fund where they re balance based on your age. Your numbers 46.77 bonds, 27.47 bonds 25.76% cash. You have or should have or can get a statement of what you hold.
Might be interesting to run it through Morningstar fund x-ray, it is FREE and see what they say about your allocation. It should be close to what you say your allocation is.

She said she was a she, and not a he in opening post.
However that may not cover all the gender requirements of the person in question.
Bathroom arrangements have so far definitely not been discussed!:icon_wink:

Being a millionaire does not mean what it once did. Remember that old TV show THE MILLIONAIRE. The premise was some wealthy person would anonymously give worthy people a check for a million and they were set for life. Today, due to inflation that check is now roughly a sixth of a million160,000.

Reality re: Warren Buffet.
Listed as the greatest stock picker, He has a staff that explores and investigate the data.
He of course pays for that.

You could not, I cannot pay the salaries of his staff.

Buffet recently said do as I say not as I do. He did not beat the S&P average this year.
He has said publicly you/we should simply buy one of the index funds.

Buffet has also said that was a mistake I lost 45 million on that stock.
Was I to loose 45 million there would be a lot of people wondering how they were so stupid as to lend me that much money.

Even the adverb Buffet like is well nuts. You do not even trade in the same market as Buffet does. Nor do you need to disclose what you hold and what you are buying or selling.

Back to the original question - is the stock market going to crash ? Answer historically is yes. The market has corrected every 4 - 7 years. The more important question is when ? Majority of scholars agree you can not time the market. However I predict by the end of this year. When all the protection for renters not paying rent and banks not able to foreclose expires ( I think around Sept?) landlords will find the renters are never going to pay back the rent. Where will that extra money for them to do so come from ? Landlords will have a sour taste and realize they are not in control of their own investment. Now couple loss of rent with loss of control and the realization the real estate market is red hot there will be a rush to sell to recoup. The rush to sell will flood the market with real estate and the housing market will crash. Many people equate high house values to wealth and that feel good feeling subconsciously drives them to spend. When the housing market crashes it will drastically stop the spending and bingo - crash.

Except the OP....................very entertaining thread. :yuck:

Financial Fudiciary
 

Talk to Kelley Pyles at Royal Fund Managment. 352-750-1637