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-   -   Is the market going to crash? (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/investment-talk-158/market-going-crash-320487/)

Stu from NYC 06-11-2021 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimjamuser (Post 1957951)
There is a book by Somebody(?) Graham that is an all-time classic. It is quite technical.

Benjamin

He is a good book to start with

jimjamuser 06-11-2021 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boffin (Post 1957655)
Yes, the market will go down. No one knows when.
No, you should not change your current holdings.
FYI: The average length of a bear market is 289 days, or about 9.6 months. The average length of a bull market is 973 days or about 2.7 years.

I don't think so. I think that Bull markets average 11 years. This current one exceeds that.

Bob G 06-11-2021 02:14 PM

NO advisor has ever beaten the market long term.

jimjamuser 06-11-2021 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zendog3 (Post 1957947)
True crashes, as opposed to normal market fluctuations, occur when something is fundamentally wrong in the market. These are not hard to spot, it is just that people don't want to see them coming. The tech bubble, the housing bubble, savings and loan crash.Anyone with half a brain could see them coming a year in advance. What do we have to worry about now? For decades the Republicans were for balanced budgets and the Dems were for investment. Then Ragan busted the budget and lowered taxes. Then Trump gave a huge tax break to the rich and lowered taxes, Now,the Dems are spending without raising taxes. That is a recipe for a crash. Average people are spending $500 K for houses. That is unsustainable. Above it all, wealth inequality is out of control 56 Americans own more of the nations wealth than 60% of the total population. Those things have crash written all over them.

Concerning investment. You are old. You need low risk, low fee investments. Don't pay a financial advisor. Educate yourself, then open an account with Vanguard and put your money in a market matching EFT or mutual fund. Safe, good returns, no fees.

The fees charged by a financial advisor eat into your earnings. They make it hard to see the fees they charge, but your money is putting their kids through Stanford.

Pretty good post - Zen Doggy Dog. You are correct. The wealth disparity IS the US's greatest and most URGENT problem. That's why people look favorably on the 50s and 1960s when wealth was distributed MOSTLY evenly throughout the middle class. Note: unions were active then and off-shoring had NOT yet started. US society IS on a knife's edge today due to wealth disparity and other factors. The stock market works fine for the upper 10% of America. It CAN work for the middle class, but they MUST be SHARP! Home ownership has NEVER worked for the lower classes so they are volatile in this volatile time. Other US problems are Global Warming and overpopulation! Incidentally, Warren Buffet has warned of the excess population for many years. Check the Wickipedia entry on Buffet about this!

jimjamuser 06-11-2021 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nan27 (Post 1957962)
Hi Becca - Many people are in the same boat as you. I don't know your age; however, if you are in your 60's, I'm in your ballpark. :) I can tell you that I started investing in the stock market many years ago when I didn't know what the heck that I was doing. Thankfully, I somehow have made quite a bit; and that is with significant losses a few times.

We have most of our investments with a discount broker, Fidelity Investments. I myself have a significant portion of my investments in index funds and ETF's. I think that is something you should consider. I have invested in S&P 500 index fund, balanced index fund (both stocks and bonds), health index fund, NASDAQ ETF. All have done quite well.

You could call Fidelity Investments and talk to a representative there and explain exactly what you have said in your post. They should be able to guide you how to invest. I want to warn you though: I would not recommend their "professionally" managed arm. You pay for that, whether your investments gain or lose.

They will be happy to transfer your money to their company and guide you as to what type of funds in which to invest, depending on your risk tolerance.

I agree with THAT post. Just 2 or so ETFs are all that is NEEDED.

jimjamuser 06-11-2021 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC (Post 1957975)
Benjamin

He is a good book to start with

Thank you Stu !!!!!

PugMom 06-11-2021 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by retiredguy123 (Post 1957498)
You shouldn't have all your money in stocks. It should be more like 30 percent stocks, 30 percent intermediate term bonds, and 40 percent cash (money market fund). But, the way to change it is to do it over a long period, like about 2 years. So, take 70 percent of the account, divide by 24 months, and transfer that amount every month into an intermediate term bond fund (like the Vanguard total bond market index fund) and a money market fund (Vanguard MM fund). So, in 2 years, you will have a conservative, balanced portfolio. That is the way I would do it.

what he said--excellent info. there are stocks that will always earn $$ no matter what the climate is in the country

Janie123 06-11-2021 04:16 PM

The market is like a roller coaster and the only ones that get hurt are the ones who jump off. Read The Total Money Makeover by Dave Ramsey

rustyp 06-11-2021 05:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jsapen@mindspring.com (Post 1958035)
The market is like a roller coaster and the only ones that get hurt are the ones who jump off. Read The Total Money Makeover by Dave Ramsey

Dave Ramsey - shock jock

I retired at 52 yrs old. Doing fine without "financial advisors" at 17 years latter. One must ask themselves why am I listening to you when I'm living the golden lifestyle and you are still hawking. Dave Ramsey is no spring chicken. Oh but he loves what he does. Really watch his demeanor.

wmcgowan 06-11-2021 05:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Becca9800 (Post 1957495)
I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.

Go see Edelman Financial and get an appraisal on/of your situation:
Talk With One of Our Financial Advisors. No Cost. No Obligation

Tom52 06-11-2021 05:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimjamuser (Post 1957976)
I don't think so. I think that Bull markets average 11 years. This current one exceeds that.

A bear market is defined as a drop of at least 20% from recent highs of major indexes DOW or S&P. This happened most recently in March thru August 2020, so this bull market is not yet a year old.

wmcgowan 06-11-2021 05:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Becca9800 (Post 1957518)
Can you recommend a book, please?

The Truth About Money:
Access to this page has been denied.

DAVES 06-11-2021 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wmcgowan (Post 1958063)
Go see Edelman Financial and get an appraisal on/of your situation:
Talk With One of Our Financial Advisors. No Cost. No Obligation

You get nothin for nothin. Some never learn that. Took me two times. One was free stamps that used to be on matchbook covers. The other was free land in Florida.
I did get the stamps and I did spend a few bucks with them for the FREE STAMPS.

Land in Florida, that was amusing. The scams were all over the place for land that was literally underwater. They were hounding me until my dad told them the truth I was like 13 at the time and my allowance was ????? somewhere between a quarter or a dollar per week.

The information you give them, age, net worth, where your money is now and how much
you have is worth a fortune to them. It is amusing, spell your name slightly wrong and you will be able to have an idea about where they sell your should PRIVATE INFORMATION.

DAVES 06-11-2021 07:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rustyp (Post 1958045)
Dave Ramsey - shock jock

I retired at 52 yrs old. Doing fine without "financial advisors" at 17 years latter. One must ask themselves why am I listening to you when I'm living the golden lifestyle and you are still hawking. Dave Ramsey is no spring chicken. Oh but he loves what he does. Really watch his demeanor.

Not in my league. Warren Buffet, often listed as the greatest stock picker. The guy is 86 years old. He regularly says he buys for long term. Does he have a different actuarial table than the rest of us?

DAVES 06-11-2021 07:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimjamuser (Post 1957981)
Pretty good post - Zen Doggy Dog. You are correct. The wealth disparity IS the US's greatest and most URGENT problem. That's why people look favorably on the 50s and 1960s when wealth was distributed MOSTLY evenly throughout the middle class. Note: unions were active then and off-shoring had NOT yet started. US society IS on a knife's edge today due to wealth disparity and other factors. The stock market works fine for the upper 10% of America. It CAN work for the middle class, but they MUST be SHARP! Home ownership has NEVER worked for the lower classes so they are volatile in this volatile time. Other US problems are Global Warming and overpopulation! Incidentally, Warren Buffet has warned of the excess population for many years. Check the Wickipedia entry on Buffet about this!

Much of what we think and remember is simply false or at least not MY reality. I was born in 1950. My dad was a wounded WWII COMBAT vet who did two tours of duty in the Philippines. He was one of less than 50 guys in his original battalion, roughly 600 men, to survive WWII.

My parents according to our press raise me wrong. I was taught you work for what you need and what you want. My parents helped to pay for my college education. I worked through college and at summer jobs and paid the rest. On graduation. planning on taking time off I got a note from the bank congratulations on your graduation, you first loan payment is due, if I recall it was in two months. In today's dollars I owed 91,000.
Real number 13,000 x 7.

I was an overnight success, it only took me 45 years if hard work and savings. There is no shortage of opportunity.

Envy, thought that someone else owes you. It is of far more value to learn how others succeeded rather than wasting time trying to justify stealing what others have produced.

Re: global warming, over population.
More sad typical thought Since 1950 the year of my birth the population has roughly doubled 180 million to 350 million today. Blacks were 6% of the population Today 13%
roughly four times.

Sadly typical politically correct mind control. The thought is not what I can, what I should do but what someone else should do.

The evil 1% so often parroted. Sadly TYPICAL hate tactics. Unite the mindless MOB against 1%. Well you still have hope that 99% will parrot your HATE and vote for you.

Hate is a powerful mindless tool. It has been used successfully throughout history.
Interesting reality. Hitler in his insane HATE said the Jews were the route of all evil.
United in HATE his people followed him. Few objected. Everyone want to be in the in group. Children were most easily influenced. The numbers are interesting. Hitler and his people murdered half the Jews in Europe. Being great at record keeping we know 6 million Jews were murdered. Simple math so there were 12 million Jews in Europe.
In 1945 the population of Europe was 450 million people. Jews were thus 5% of the population.

Hum same exact tactics 1% vs 5% is the problem.

The numbers were we to take everything the top 1% have. Send them to the ovens as Hitler did, it would not pay half of our current national debt.


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