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-   -   Is the market going to crash? (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/investment-talk-158/market-going-crash-320487/)

jimjamuser 06-11-2021 12:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Becca9800 (Post 1957495)
I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.

If you can't "afford to lose it in a crash" as you stated - then you should have zero or a max of 10% in stocks. You need 90% in BONDS. I prefer to use ETFs (electronically traded funds) specifically for BONDS. The best way to buy and trade BONDS is to get an internet broker (like Ameritrade) and buy 2 ETFs.......BND, which is ALL US bonds, and BNDX, which is ALL European bonds. That IS a simple yet elegant system. You have VERY low risk and small STEADY GAINS. And you can convert to cash in 5 minutes by simply selling it yourself with a couple clicks of your mouse. Take care!

jimjamuser 06-11-2021 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrumpyOldMan (Post 1957497)
You are trying to do what is called Time the Market. Don't do that. It doesn't work out well for 99.99% of investors that try to do it (just made up percentage, but it is bay far most).

You need to find a person with experience to giver you advice on conservative investment strategies - if you are concerned about losing what you have invested. And then follow that advice and leave it alone.

The market WILL crash eventually. Next week, next year, or next decade - no one can predict, but a lot of people will gladly take your money and promise they can predict it and will protect your investment, do not believe anyone that says they can promise anything.

Cool dog Grumpy look at my advice to her. But BND and BNDX.........VERY low risk - almost zero. And yes timing the market is tough and risky. That's why the former CEO of Vanguard designed ETFs. Brilliant dude!!!!!!

jimjamuser 06-11-2021 01:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Becca9800 (Post 1957509)
See that's how ignorant I am, I don't even use the correct verbiage. I lumped it all as 'in the stock market'. I have to admit that I'm embarrassed. My aggressive retirement portfolio is 46.77% bonds, 27.47% stocks and 25.76% cash/stable value. Given that new info, what say you? Am I on a stable path to preserve my savings?

If you are worried......drop the stocks down to 15%. And don't buy INDIVIDUAL stocks. Buy the ETFs for ALL the Nasdaq (QQQ) and for ALL of New York Exchange (SPY).

lindaelane 06-11-2021 01:05 PM

(1) I am not sure why this portfolio is called "Aggressive" unless asset allocation changed over time and you are quite senior. Something seems wrong here. Aggressive means not conservative. (2) I strongly second the recommendation for Dave Ramsey "Total Money Makeover". (3) If you have $250,000 you can find a professional who is a "fiduciary" to work with. They must be a "ficuciary" of you could be put in products not appropriate for you, which give good commissions to the finance person. (4) There is nothing wrong with a good annuity, but they are very complex and good ones are hard to find. There is, however, a type of annuity called a SPIA - basically, you give then X amount of dollars and they give you X amount of dollars a month for life, no matter what happens. They are insurance products and none has defaulted in over 150 years, so you are safe in a SPIA but your rate of return will not be high and you must hold it for about 20 years, on average, to get back what you put in. Without taking a lower rate, if you die, you do not get back what is left of what you put in. Some conservative investors believe they should have an annuity to cover "basics" (house, utilities, gas, food, etc.) and other investments to purchase beyond basics. (5) Do you have a budget? This is important. Know your basic budget and what you can afford to spend beyond that. (6) You cannot know if the market is going to crash. If I were you, I would assume that half of what I have in stocks, and a third of what I have in bonds, **could** disappear and not come back for 8-10 years or so, but that that dire event is under 50 percent probable. Who actually knows how probable? Then I would decide how much I want to risk in order to get investment returns. (7) I might consider putting the rest of my money in TIPS, but I do not use TIPS so you should consult a professional about them. TIPS stands for Treasury Inflation Protected Securities - they go up with inflation but not more than inflation.

zendog3 06-11-2021 01:14 PM

True crashes, as opposed to normal market fluctuations, occur when something is fundamentally wrong in the market. These are not hard to spot, it is just that people don't want to see them coming. The tech bubble, the housing bubble, savings and loan crash.Anyone with half a brain could see them coming a year in advance. What do we have to worry about now? For decades the Republicans were for balanced budgets and the Dems were for investment. Then Ragan busted the budget and lowered taxes. Then Trump gave a huge tax break to the rich and lowered taxes, Now,the Dems are spending without raising taxes. That is a recipe for a crash. Average people are spending $500 K for houses. That is unsustainable. Above it all, wealth inequality is out of control 56 Americans own more of the nations wealth than 60% of the total population. Those things have crash written all over them.

Concerning investment. You are old. You need low risk, low fee investments. Don't pay a financial advisor. Educate yourself, then open an account with Vanguard and put your money in a market matching EFT or mutual fund. Safe, good returns, no fees.

The fees charged by a financial advisor eat into your earnings. They make it hard to see the fees they charge, but your money is putting their kids through Stanford.

jimjamuser 06-11-2021 01:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Becca9800 (Post 1957518)
Can you recommend a book, please?

There is a book about Warren Buffet that is good. He also has an ETF like FUND that is as solid as SPY. It is designated BRKB

jimjamuser 06-11-2021 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Becca9800 (Post 1957518)
Can you recommend a book, please?

There is a book by Somebody(?) Graham that is an all-time classic. It is quite technical.

jimjamuser 06-11-2021 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by retiredguy123 (Post 1957531)
It sounds like you already have a good balance to your portfolio. I would check to see the average duration of the bonds. They should be short term or intermediate term bonds, NOT long term. Long term bonds are too risky. The average maturity of the bonds should be less than 10 years. And, if you discuss your investments with an advisor, DO NOT let them sell you an annuity. Again, DO NOT transfer your investments into an annuity.

Yes, AVOID annuities. Run away if some so-called adviser mentions the word!!!!!!!!

jimjamuser 06-11-2021 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrumpyOldMan (Post 1957537)
Did you vet the "experts". And that is not a surprise, ask 5 more and you will get 5 more types of advice.

And the absolute worst place to get advice on almost anything is online in a forum.

Come on Grumpy - my advice is good! Everyone loves your dog.

jimjamuser 06-11-2021 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Becca9800 (Post 1957548)
So..... if my money is w Lincoln Financial, in an Aggressive Retirement portfolio (46.77% bonds, 27.47% stocks and 25.76% cash/stable value) is it imperative that I understand asset allocation? Or can I trust Lincoln? This is truly a case of I don't know what I don't know. Honestly, I don't want to understand it, I want to be able to trust the experts. But as with all things, in the end.....

About 50% BONDS is NOT close to AGGRESSIVE. 90% stocks IS aggressive. You said you did NOT want that!!!!!!

nan27 06-11-2021 01:27 PM

Index Funds
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Becca9800 (Post 1957495)
I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.

Hi Becca - Many people are in the same boat as you. I don't know your age; however, if you are in your 60's, I'm in your ballpark. :) I can tell you that I started investing in the stock market many years ago when I didn't know what the heck that I was doing. Thankfully, I somehow have made quite a bit; and that is with significant losses a few times.

We have most of our investments with a discount broker, Fidelity Investments. I myself have a significant portion of my investments in index funds and ETF's. I think that is something you should consider. I have invested in S&P 500 index fund, balanced index fund (both stocks and bonds), health index fund, NASDAQ ETF. All have done quite well.

You could call Fidelity Investments and talk to a representative there and explain exactly what you have said in your post. They should be able to guide you how to invest. I want to warn you though: I would not recommend their "professionally" managed arm. You pay for that, whether your investments gain or lose.

They will be happy to transfer your money to their company and guide you as to what type of funds in which to invest, depending on your risk tolerance.

jimjamuser 06-11-2021 01:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stevecmo (Post 1957579)
To be upfront, I know absolutely nothing about Lincoln Financial. If your asset allocation is truly 27/73 (stocks/fixed income) and they are calling that their "aggressive portfolio", I would look elsewhere.

Having said that, 27/73 would be considered very conservative but may be appropriate if it lets you sleep at night. However, most advisors say you need at least 40-50% equities (stocks) to keep up with inflation.

I would suggest you visit bogleheads.org . John Bogle was the founder of Vanguard. Spend some time on the forum. Introduce yourself and ask questions. Explore the Wiki. There is also a recommended reading list.

Hope that helps.

Inflation has been non-existent for many recent years. It has ticked up a little recently (from a low base). That's why the market is up big-time. She sounds (to me) like she NEEDS about 15% in stocks. Since she has ACKNOWLEDGED that she is naive (in the market) and open to exploitation by many local brokers.

jimjamuser 06-11-2021 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stevecmo (Post 1957579)
To be upfront, I know absolutely nothing about Lincoln Financial. If your asset allocation is truly 27/73 (stocks/fixed income) and they are calling that their "aggressive portfolio", I would look elsewhere.

Having said that, 27/73 would be considered very conservative but may be appropriate if it lets you sleep at night. However, most advisors say you need at least 40-50% equities (stocks) to keep up with inflation.

I would suggest you visit bogleheads.org . John Bogle was the founder of Vanguard. Spend some time on the forum. Introduce yourself and ask questions. Explore the Wiki. There is also a recommended reading list.

Hope that helps.

Most advisors like you to buy INDIVIDUAL stocks so they can make maximum profits and KEEP turning you over!!!!!!

jimjamuser 06-11-2021 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Becca9800 (Post 1957591)
Right. That much I get. The real question.... do I leave my money where it is, is it safe from any market crash? Or do I need to move it to a safer place?

The only thing that may be safer than ETFs for bonds would be maybe(?) GOLD and there is an ETF for that even. I don't think that is necessary in today's economy.

jimjamuser 06-11-2021 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Becca9800 (Post 1957596)
Your advice is very worthwhile. I can't thank you enough! THANK YOU!!!

The Village HAD (or may still have) an investment CLUB. I used to go to many of their meetings. Many SMART investors were there SHARING their knowledge. You might be intimidated at first by how advanced they are.


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