[Rainger99]

If you think Morgan Stanley is correct, and you are thinking about buying a house next year, do you still buy or hold off?

Morgan Stanley predicts house prices could fall 5% by the end of 2024 if mortgage rates stay at record highs | Daily Mail Online

[Velvet]

Yeah! I hope our assessment and property taxes will reflect it!

[thelegges]

One can always hold off, then again, depending on your health, genes, or just bad luck. Buying yesterday may not be soon enough. This late in the game what’s 5%, compared to living in a place you want to retire in.

[dewilson58]

Originally Posted by Rainger99

If you think Morgan Stanley is correct, and you are thinking about buying a house next year, do you still buy or hold off?

Silly question.
1) If someone is going to retire, 5% has no impact. It's immaterial.
2) TV market value negative swing (if any) is less than "the market".

The report also states:
In the short term, we believe that the impact from renewed decreases in the supply of homes available for sale is going to have a greater impact on home prices than any decrease in demand,

[Rainger99]

Originally Posted by thelegges

One can always hold off, then again, depending on your health, genes, or just bad luck. Buying yesterday may not be soon enough. This late in the game what’s 5%, compared to living in a place you want to retire in.

It may not have an impact on people wanting to sell and retire - but most people sell elsewhere and buy here. Will it impact the buyers up north? Will they hold off buying for a year because they expect housing prices to be 5% lower next year?

[asianthree]

Originally Posted by Rainger99

It may not have an impact on people wanting to sell and retire - but most people sell elsewhere and buy here. Will it impact the buyers up north? Will they hold off buying for a year because they expect housing prices to be 5% lower next year?

Don’t really know, we have always bought first, then decide which to sell, at the right time, and location. Then again if 5% breaks the budget, retirement may take longer, or just sit in place until a percentage is better

[manaboutown]

I think needing to pay around 8% interest on a 30 year mortgage has a greater effect on whether people can afford to buy a home than a 5% deviation in price, up or down.

[asianthree]

Originally Posted by manaboutown

I think needing to pay around 8% interest on a 30 year mortgage has a greater effect on whether people can afford to buy a home than a 5% deviation in price, up or down.

So financial strategy anywhere a rate is above 4.5%, take out the largest mortgage institution will give you, putting minimum down.

After first mortgage payment applied, pay down mortgage by 20 to 70%. Amortization of payment next 30 days, interest is minimal.

Just remember if you need write off, speak with your finance guy, as too how much cash to pay down. So 8% is only ugly if one doesn’t have savings, or investments

[DrMack]

Rates are crazy high. 8.25% on a 30. I don’t get that from my other investments.

[manaboutown]

Originally Posted by asianthree

So financial strategy anywhere a rate is above 4.5%, take out the largest mortgage institution will give you, putting minimum down.

After first mortgage payment applied, pay down mortgage by 20 to 70%. Amortization of payment next 30 days, interest is minimal.

Just remember if you need write off, speak with your finance guy, as too how much cash to pay down. So 8% is only ugly if one doesn’t have savings, or investments

I was thinking about today's young to middle aged families, not people over 50 who have built a portfolio of financial assets over time. Most folks don't have much in the way of savings or investments when they are starting out in their twenties and thirties. I didn't. Every house I ever bought from 1967 through 1996 I leveraged to the hilt short of needing to pay PMI. The last one I bought in 2017 I took a 15 year 3-1/8% mortgage on, 50% down. I find it convenient not to pay it off as the lender escrows money from my payments and pays the taxes and insurance for me. My other houses are now free and clear. The $10K cap on the SALT deductions modified my strategy.

[Ash Marwah]

5 percent drop is a national average. Florida reacts at a much higher rate, up or down. I would hold off buying a house until next year.

[asianthree]

Originally Posted by manaboutown

I was thinking about today's young to middle aged families, not people over 50 who have built a portfolio of financial assets over time. Most folks don't have much in the way of savings or investments when they are starting out in their twenties and thirties. I didn't. Every house I ever bought from 1967 through 1996 I leveraged to the hilt short of needing to pay PMI. The last one I bought in 2017 I took a 15 year 3-1/8% mortgage on, 50% down. I find it convenient not to pay it off as the lender escrows money from my payments and pays the taxes and insurance for me. My other houses are now free and clear. The $10K cap on the SALT deductions modified my strategy.

True, but Many in retirement age group in their youth had more than 8% mortgage with wages around $5.
Our grands working job’s during college, minimum wage for them has been $20 or more an hour. Don’t need insurance until 26, so saves a bundle.

The 4 of them rent our house and have a healthy savings for early 20s. Plan is to buy home in 2 years, unless they all end up in different med schools.

I would also hope those in their 30s living with parents are saving money for something, or maybe not

Originally Posted by Rainger99

It may not have an impact on people wanting to sell and retire - but most people sell elsewhere and buy here. Will it impact the buyers up north? Will they hold off buying for a year because they expect housing prices to be 5% lower next year?

Don't need everyone "up there" moving "down here" anyway.

If 5% holds them back that's ok by me.

The crazy drivers are back in T V. Had a nice hot summer of driving safely in T V.

Two times yesterday just about had two different women over 60 think they own the roads in T V. One in a very large gold caddy SUV honking and thinking flashing lights was going to get me to decide over 35 was what I should drive down Morse Blvd because she was special. No, it just made me take my sweet @$$ time even more!! The other a red sadan on Canal St going 50 in a 20 on a curve when I was half way in the road turning left. T-bone steak cooking up!
Had "up there" written all over her entitled rude self.

Do it... hit me.. my bond will get paid off. 5% means nothing to me.

[Normal]

Anyone wanting to purchase now would be a little desperate. Whether the market moves up or down, one thing for sure is it isn’t stable.

IMHO prices will move downward anyway, interest rates are a deciding factor nationally wherever you are trying to sell. If you think prices will go up, I’d like some of what you are smoking.

[Jimmangi]

Originally Posted by Velvet

Yeah! I hope our assessment and property taxes will reflect it!

Property taxes don’t work that way. The taxing jurisdiction figures out how much money it needs to operate. IF everyone’s assessment were to drop, due to a drop in property values, the tax rate would be increased to the level needed. Assessment x Tax Rate (plus ad valorem amounts) = Your property taxes.