[njbchbum]

Originally Posted by OrangeBlossomBaby

snipped

Prices have been coming down, they're still high but you can get a gallon of gas for just over $3.50 now, compared to the high of $4.85 a month and a half ago for the same octane level at the same gas station.

Where is that gas station? Please advise.

[gatorbill1]

Originally Posted by njbchbum

Where is that gas station? Please advise.

Just about anywhere near TV in Florida, probably not where you might be?. Saw it at Shell, WaWa etc.

[Caymus]

Originally Posted by njbchbum

Where is that gas station? Please advise.

I use GasBuddy when I travel

Best Gas Prices & Local Gas Stations in The Villages, FL

[manaboutown]

Originally Posted by ElDiabloJoe

PCH through Newport, Laguna and north Dana Point (Monarch Beach) has always been a Saturday afternoon parade of high end cars making their way to and from Fashion Island. I've watched it for many years from various locales in those three areas.

True that! On Saturdays just about any exotic sports cars one can think of and incredible hot rods cruise PCH. The hot rodders meet at some donut shop in Huntington Beach I think.

Anyway these were $$$ SUVs about 10:30 a.m. on a weekday out among the hoi polloi in the usual assortment of Mercedes Benzes, BMWs, Audis and such so they got my attention.

Back in 2007-2009 during the Great Recession I was living in Newport Beach and owned a Cayenne S. I remember taking it into the dealer on PCH which also sold Audis and Bentleys. Their lot must have had 20-30 Bentley Continental GTC convertibles in it. I had never seen the like of it as their lot inventory was usually just a few. So, I asked the service guy what was going on. His response: "Oh, those are the mortgage brokers' cars." Apparently that type of car was the "in vehicle" leased by mortgage brokers who were making money hand over fist at that time. Then in a flash, the boom time was over and they had to turn them in.

This recession feels different, so far anyway, and it is quite early. Katie bar the door. Anything can happen IMHO.

[nick demis]

Originally Posted by OrangeBlossomBaby

MOST of the "inflation" has been the rising cost of gasoline. There's your storm right there. Take a look at Exxon and Chevron's RECORD profits this past quarter.

They jacked up the prices because they could, and reaped the rewards while you were all too busy whining about politics to notice.

Prices have been coming down, they're still high but you can get a gallon of gas for just over $3.50 now, compared to the high of $4.85 a month and a half ago for the same octane level at the same gas station.

What about the previous several quarters that they lost money, or doesn't that count?

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by OrangeBlossomBaby

MOST of the "inflation" has been the rising cost of gasoline. There's your storm right there. Take a look at Exxon and Chevron's RECORD profits this past quarter.

They jacked up the prices because they could, and reaped the rewards while you were all too busy whining about politics to notice.

Prices have been coming down, they're still high but you can get a gallon of gas for just over $3.50 now, compared to the high of $4.85 a month and a half ago for the same octane level at the same gas station.

Way to simple analysis of where this inflation came from. Bottom line is too much money chasing too few goods.

Fed will cool down the economy by raising interest rates and watch how much housing prices will come down. Recession will be mild or severe but way to early to predict

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by nick demis

What about the previous several quarters that they lost money, or doesn't that count?

You are right economics should be a required course in school.

[B-flat]

Here in Rhode island we are paying 4.34 per gallon give or take. BJs wholesale where we get gas is at $4.21 today. I checked Gas Buddy and seems in Ocala and TV it is in the $3.50 range.

[Topspinmo]

Originally Posted by OrangeBlossomBaby

MOST of the "inflation" has been the rising cost of gasoline. There's your storm right there. Take a look at Exxon and Chevron's RECORD profits this past quarter.

They jacked up the prices because they could, and reaped the rewards while you were all too busy whining about politics to notice.

Prices have been coming down, they're still high but you can get a gallon of gas for just over $3.50 now, compared to the high of $4.85 a month and a half ago for the same octane level at the same gas station.

Stock market controls price of crud oil not Exxon or chevron or any other company.

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

Originally Posted by njbchbum

Where is that gas station? Please advise.

BJ's on 441 across from The Villages Regional Hospital.

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

Originally Posted by Topspinmo

Stock market controls price of crud oil not Exxon or chevron or any other company.

Exxon on Friday said that its refining profits — earnings that come from processing crude oil into gasoline and other fuels — surged to $5.3 billion, from a loss of $865 million a year ago. At Chevron, refining profits were $3.5 billion in the second quarter, up from $839 million the year before.

Crude oil gets refined into other petroleum products. From a loss of $865M in 2021 to a profits of $5.3B is not the result of stock markets controlling the price of crude oil. It's the result of Exxon charging more for post-refinery petroleum. Gasoline at the pumps isn't the only product that comes from crude oil. Synthetic plastics are the result of the refining process as well, and plastics made from the refining process of crude oil are found in every household, every automobile, every computer, every cell phone, every company in the country. Even the handle of your desktop stapler is probably made from synthetic plastic.

This is part of the reason inflation is so high, because the oil companies have raised their prices on ALL petroleum products. Not just gasoline.

[retiredguy123]

Originally Posted by manaboutown

Some people seem to be doing fine. I am taking a break from the heat over in Orange County, CA, staying cool in 72 degree ocean breezes for a couple more weeks. Midmorning Friday as I was driving on PCH in Newport Beach I noticed a brand new Rolls Royce Cullinan with temporary plates in the lane to the left of me and a Lamborghini Urus in the lane to my right. It feels to me the rich have been getting richer.

I'm doing fine, and I drive a Ford.

[krick093]

Real Estate Investment Trusts, Energy Partnerships and Corp preferred shares are all providing decent dividends without too much stock price volatility.

[Worldseries27]

Originally Posted by njbchbum

where is that gas station? Please advise.

circle k 466a as of saturday

[Langwelld]

Had the Biden administration committed to an organized transition to green energy while keep our energy independence and all the other policies of the previous administration in place, none of this economic turmoil would have occurred.

Originally Posted by jmaccallum

Recession or No, Where do We go?

Inflation is up to 9%. The Fed is hiking rates to slow the economy and slow demand. Unemployment is down to good levels. Wages are up significantly after the Pandemic. Supply chain deficiencies continue to plague, yet many corporate sales numbers are up, though profits are squeezed or gone. Consumers still have cash in their pockets from various stimulations. So, where do we need to go?

In the 70’s, inflation ran wildly free to mortgage rates of 18%. Nixon enacted his wage and price freeze only to have both jump dramatically when the freeze ended. Nobody wanted a recession, and so politicians were like a deer in the headlights. Paul Volcker, chairman of the Fed at the time, finally drove the country into not one, but two, major recessions at the time in order to break the cycle of inflation. Probably one of the biggest reasons Jimmy Carter never saw a second term.

The Fed, today, is seeking fiscal management that will result in a “soft landing.” An admirable ambition, but is it possible?

After the Pandemic, labor shortages were acute, requiring hiring incentives to include higher wages and bonuses. Where would this increase in business expense come from? Nowhere but higher prices. It has to. Unlike the government, businesses must make a profit in order to survive. We all know that, or do we?

Economics is complicated, but also simple. Supply versus demand drives a free market economy. However, manipulations are entirely possible. Hence the price of gas today.

Americans were handed a lot of money, in the form of Pandemic stimulus, with really no where to spend it. Everyone was locked down at home. So some remodeling was done, a dishwasher here and refrigerator or washer and dryer there. Things that could be ordered online and delivered with assurances of sterilized delivery. But the bulk of the on-hand cash sat pent up waiting for the “great re-opening.” And society re-opened. Consumers wanted to spend the cash burning a hole in their pocket. The only problem was, that as consumers had been locked down, so had businesses. Employees were gone, factories sat idle. Raw material orders had been put on hold or even canceled. Nobody cared to think that as long as it took to shut things down, it would take that long or longer to revamp the supply chain.

A perfect storm. And not many saw it coming. Higher wages, hiring bonuses, ample cash in the hands of consumers, people ready to get out and spend, shuttered supply chains that couldn’t supply goods to spend the money on. How could there not be inflation? Economics is complicated, but also simple. Demand outstripping supply. Inflation.

So what do we do now? Inflation is rearing it ugly head. Consumers have cash to spend. The fickle stock market is crying that the sky is falling, and the inverse yield curve for bonds is a reality. It does hurt that our portfolio that was worth $1.5 million is now worth $1 million, or less.

I say, let there be a recession of sorts. Cool the market and cool demand. Raise interest rates and slow the whole thing. Slow the housing market now and slow all other demand. It’s the only way to bust inflation. Sales will decline, wages will drop, unemployment will increase somewhat, and maybe consumers will continue to save rather than spend, just a little. But as with the other 37 recessions our economy has survived, we will survive this one, too.

The biggest question will be fuel prices. That’s a hard one to bust. Prices will probably never return to pre-level prices. Consumers will either absorb or look for alternatives. Hello, electric cars! Which brings a whole new fuel supply need and resulting debate. But maybe we’ll see Long Haul Truckers begin to be a dinosaur of a career that grandparents tell their grandkids about, as we look toward more communal distribution systems such as high efficiency rail, and local off-loading. Anyway, if it happens, it will happen in the background with few consumers involved nor aware. All of us just want the shelves filled at Walmart.

Any thoughts, and given the parameters, how to invest?