[dewilson58]

Originally Posted by biker1

Not really. The SS trust fund is about $2.9B (funds collected in excess of benefits paid plus earnings) and the national debt is about $23B. That is about 12%.

might want to use a T, rather than a B

[biker1]

Hey, I was only off by 3 orders of magnitude ;-) Good catch. I will restate: $2.9x10^12 and $23x10^12.

Originally Posted by dewilson58

might want to use a T, rather than a B

[tvbound]

Originally Posted by biker1

Not really. The SS trust fund is about $2.9B (funds collected in excess of benefits paid plus earnings) and the national debt is about $23B. That is about 12%.

"the national debt is about $23B."

Ignoring the mistake of using billion instead of trillion, you may want to do a little research on the actual amount. Just in the last 4 years, it went from about $19.9 TRILLION to almost $27 TRILLION. I won't touch on the obvious, but it didn't happen accidentally or in a vacuum.

The National Debt Is Now More than $27 Trillion. What Does That Mean?

[biker1]

Actually you might want to do a little research yourself because you have it wrong also (and, yes, I did type a B instead of a T, I will use scientific notation from now on). It is $27.5x10^12. I was using an old number from memory, the B instead of T notwithstanding. Regardless, I was responding to the post that suggested SS was 40% of the national debt. It is actually closer to 11% than the 12% I originally posted (assuming $23x10^12 national debt). Are you trying to make some sort of political statement?

Originally Posted by tvbound

"the national debt is about $23B."

Ignoring the mistake of using billion instead of trillion, you may want to do a little research on the actual amount. Just in the last 4 years, it went from about $19.9 TRILLION to almost $27 TRILLION. I won't touch on the obvious, but it didn't happen accidentally or in a vacuum.

The National Debt Is Now More than $27 Trillion. What Does That Mean?

[valuemkt]

So this thread was started in early June with the claim by the original poster of Greenspan's famous irrational exuberance.. It has now devolved into a deficit discussion.. If you've hidden your money under your mattress for the past six plus months, you;ve missed a very handsome move.. Irrational or not, it very easily could have generated another year or so of cash that you can take off the table.. As someone else has said, it;s not market timing, it's time in the market. Take some money off the table and put some hedges on your portfolio.. Lumpy mattresses aren't very comfortable either

[Paper1]

Originally Posted by biker1

Hey, I was only off by 3 orders of magnitude ;-) Good catch. I will restate: $2.9x10^12 and $23x10^12.

Social Security Trust Fund is a cruel hoax. It's funding is the same as the stimulus checks being mail out this week, mostly to people who did not loss employment I might add. My vote would be to eliminate all income taxes and speed up money printing press. Win Win, Watch the stock market roar!

[Bay Kid]

Soon it will all be funny money.

[Chi-Town]

Morgan Stanley Global Economists maintain their view that the V-shaped recovery will continue into 2021, and they forecast global growth of 6.4%, 100bps above the consensus.

[tvbound]

If there was ever the perfect example of how Wall Street does not reflect Main Street and the economy overall, we are living it. For those 52% of us that own stocks and can work, or don't need to work, things are pretty great right this minute. For the other 48% of Americans, many of whom are unemployed and in food lines for hours just to feed their families - not so much.

[Paper1]

Originally Posted by Chi-Town

Morgan Stanley Global Economists maintain their view that the V-shaped recovery will continue into 2021, and they forecast global growth of 6.4%, 100bps above the consensus.

Morgan Stanley has no choice but to predict a V shaped recovery.

[dewilson58]

Can't believe I'm saying this, but nice 2020 from a market return.

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by dewilson58

Can't believe I'm saying this, but nice 2020 from a market return.

Very true nobody can time the market on a continuous basis.

[Dr Winston O Boogie jr]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

There are some who will use anything in order to gain an advantage. Pandemics, race wars, crashing the economy, doesn't matter how many are hurt or killed.

Then there are others who panicked and sold their portfolios at a loss and are now confused by a market that keeps going back up.

If a pandemic or race war or the economy crashing is going to happen anyway, why shouldn't people do what they think is best for them? Why shouldn't an investor take advantage of whatever situation is occurring? It's not as thought they are creating the situation.

[Bucco]

Originally Posted by Dr Winston O Boogie jr

If a pandemic or race war or the economy crashing is going to happen anyway, why shouldn't people do what they think is best for them? Why shouldn't an investor take advantage of whatever situation is occurring? It's not as thought they are creating the situation.

I suppose, given your stated considerations, that it is a matter of your personal priorities.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

So, the potential impact for all the stimulus, which is not really stimulus, but more backstopping the pandemic economic damage preventing a systemic real estate banking crises, is to cause the dollar to fall, and interest rates to rise. As alot of older aged / retirement portfolios have bond funds, so there is a risk to bond fund asset price reductions.

So what is the best way to protect your bond fund asset decline?

1 is to take an outright hedge by shorting bond instruments yourself, short TLT, put options on TLT etc.
2 is to purchase some gold
3 is to look at WisdomTree Interest Rate, Hedged U.S. Aggregate Bond Fund, or other hedged bond funds
4 diversify into a some real estate investment trusts where rents will return and underlying assets will increase over time.
5 sell a portion of the bond funds and by back later when interests are higher.


What the equity market prices are predicting is that with the vaccine available and in distribution, that there will be a pandemic tipping point where all of a sudden, the infection rate will drop like a rock, and the world will begin to return to normal. looking 6-9 months ahead, the end of the summer is the latest market prediction, and the pros who are looking 1-2 years into the future are betting on that.

However, as in 1918, the economic structure of the workforce dislocation will change human behaviors for a long time, and owners of houses in the villages are in a good place to take advantage of the us residential tax migration which is currently underway. . . but there are always tipping points, being congestion and service demands which can't be maintained. . .

good luck, but that's the way i see the investment landscape for 2021. . .

sportsguy

currently long VXX equity volatility (small)
short TLT (medium) as a hedge
short (NKLA, and a few other low revenue high valuation stocks)
80% bond funds, 20% equity overall, waiting on a reasonable valuation to increase equity to 50% or more.