[ithos]

Interesting, The FED has piled into mortgage backed securities since COVID started. About 1.4 trillion. Now they are starting to unwind.

Assets: Securities Held Outright: Mortgage-Backed Securities: Maturing in over 10 Years: Wednesday Level (MBS10Y) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

I wonder what that means for the housing market if anything. They first started purchasing during the 2008 housing crisis. Higher rates?

Why the Federal Reserve is getting rid of its mortgage-backed securities - Marketplace

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by ithos

Interesting, The FED has piled into mortgage backed securities since COVID started. About 1.4 trillion. Now they are starting to unwind.

Assets: Securities Held Outright: Mortgage-Backed Securities: Maturing in over 10 Years: Wednesday Level (MBS10Y) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

I wonder what that means for the housing market if anything. They first started purchasing during the 2008 housing crisis. Higher rates?

Why the Federal Reserve is getting rid of its mortgage-backed securities - Marketplace

Cannot read article but they will lose a lot of money selling these securities

[ithos]

Fixed-rate mortgages are tied to the 10-year Treasury yield. When that goes up or down, fixed-rate mortgages follow suit.
How The Fed's Rate Decisions Move Mortgage Rates | Bankrate

10-year Treasury yield hits highest level since 2007
Access Denied

[Caymus]

Originally Posted by ithos

Fixed-rate mortgages are tied to the 10-year Treasury yield. When that goes up or down, fixed-rate mortgages follow suit.
How The Fed's Rate Decisions Move Mortgage Rates | Bankrate

10-year Treasury yield hits highest level since 2007
Access Denied

Let me know one week before the 10 year peaks.

[Boomer]

T v. MO? Interesting video from fool.com a couple of days ago……

Not much growth expected from either. Other factors come into play, too. And one, of course, is a sin stock — however that makes you feel.

(Believe you me, this is not a recommendation. I don’t do that — ever. The size of those dividends right now just happened to catch my attention.)

“Never forget that yield is not all there is to dividend investing,” said Boomer, stating the obvious.

Boomer

[Robbb]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

HE is a very high risk investment. . . most likely looking for a buyer of distressed assets.
Utility stocks as a diversified ETF makes the most sense, as any single stock has a much higher event risk . . . such as HE
CVS and many of the corporate self funded benefit plan managers are starting to get questioned about the growth in claims and total cost, as its been growing faster than inflation. The benefit managers are claiming patient privacy laws as a way to stonewall giving out information to review management effectiveness.

The SP500 has evolved into mostly near monopoly and oligopoly economic players, so the mega cap stawks of the SP500 will perform the best over time.
Avoid high debt laden corporations.


David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie typed:

Bob Farrell’s Market Rule #8:
Bear markets have three stages –
1. sharp down
2. reflexive rebound
3. a drawn-out fundamental downtrend.

We just moved into the third stage.


Personally, I am researching how to identify market rotation between ETF sectors. . I am in the middle of creating a server database with all the financials from EDGAR stocks for the past 10 years, courtesy of their quarterly extracts of filings, so that I can look at sector fundamental information as well . . .

I am threatening the TV stocks club with my presence!

Yes but the age old question that has never been answered for the long run...how do you know when a specific stock or even segment will make a move? Without insider information you are only guessing. Regardless how accurate your rear view mirror is, it is still a rear view which has no bearing on the future. If all the super computers on the planet cannot predict where the market will be tomorrow, how can we?

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by ithos

Interesting, The FED has piled into mortgage backed
I wonder what that means for the housing market if anything. They first started purchasing during the 2008 housing crisis. Higher rates?

Not sure, but I played golf with a local mortgage broker on Saturday, and in the very old, highly developed suburbs of New England, housing inventory is so low due to 3% refinancing and working from home, that prices are still increasing, even at these rates. .

However, this is not the entire market nor the entire country, just largely east coastal and old, well developed sections. .

higher rates will come from the treasury re-funding of an additional $1T for trillion of treasury bills and notes sales over the next three months or so. . this is already planned and announced, as well as china selling some holdings in order to prop up their currency in the FX market, which is waste of money.

maoist communism and consumer / free markets can't coexist together in harmony because of the basic inherent conflicts between the two philosophies. . .

good luck. .

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by spinner1001

From ChatGPT on sportguy’s points:

Economic Uncertainty Amidst Unprecedented

LOL! i have tried to get some programming logic out of it, and it took several attempts. . and some of the answers are flat out wrong, but some will find it helpful as they better learn prompt design to get the best answer out of it. .

The ChatGPT financial portfolio is NOT doing well, last i read and looked. . so again, its very early stages, but also a very dangerous piece of software. It will enable people who want to perform evil to do so more easily, as well as give Dunning Kruger types information which they won't know how to use properly. .

[ithos]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

Not sure, but I played golf with a local mortgage broker on Saturday, and in the very old, highly developed suburbs of New England, housing inventory is so low due to 3% refinancing and working from home, that prices are still increasing, even at these rates. .

However, this is not the entire market nor the entire country, just largely east coastal and old, well developed sections. .

higher rates will come from the treasury re-funding of an additional $1T for trillion of treasury bills and notes sales over the next three months or so. . this is already planned and announced, as well as china selling some holdings in order to prop up their currency in the FX market, which is waste of money.

maoist communism and consumer / free markets can't coexist together in harmony because of the basic inherent conflicts between the two philosophies. . .

good luck. .

Well, it seems best to do it in a strong housing market.

And you can thank General George Marshall for single handedly ensuring that Mao Zedong would defeat the Nationalists and rule China until he died. All because he hated Chiang Kai-shek.

[melpetezrinski]

Originally Posted by Robbb

Yes but the age old question that has never been answered for the long run...how do you know when a specific stock or even segment will make a move? Without insider information you are only guessing. Regardless how accurate your rear view mirror is, it is still a rear view which has no bearing on the future. If all the super computers on the planet cannot predict where the market will be tomorrow, how can we?

Because you generally don't "invest" in the markets to catch a short term "move". You invest for the long term and that "age old question" has been answered time and time again, in that, the markets will be higher in the future.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by Robbb

Yes but the age old question that has never been answered for the long run...how do you know when a specific stock or even segment will make a move? Without insider information you are only guessing. Regardless how accurate your rear view mirror is, it is still a rear view which has no bearing on the future. If all the super computers on the planet cannot predict where the market will be tomorrow, how can we?

If a super computer could predict the moves, do you really think that you or I would know about it? Do you really think Rennaisance Capital gave away their technological advantage as soon as it was proven? Perspective, there are people and systems, now called robots, which make decisions which humans can't because the robots can manage much more information that the human mind can absorb and then use to decide. . DBD

Ah, the number 1 determinate of equity pricing is revenue growth. . that's your first clue.
Second clue is industry and products. .
Industrial, manufacturing, commercia, retail, consumer: new products, new services, one time
purchase product or repeat buyers over what time span, and how often, and product life
cycle.
Third clue is near monopoly, oligopoly or very regional marketplaces and diverse competition.
Shows up in margin sensitivity, supply chain effectiveness and purchase price sensitivity,
and revenue growth. . .
Fourth clue is interest rate / inflation / fx rates sensitivity,
Fifth clue is debt to equity and Return on Assets ratios. .
Sixth is event risk: how sensitive is the company to customer events, employee events, new product events, political events, geopolitical events, etc. . which is inversely proportional to size

That's a good start to the analysis, and its not easy, but if you get it right, you can make quite nice returns. . DBD

finance guy

[ithos]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

If a super computer could predict the moves, do you really think that you or I would know about it? Do you really think Rennaisance Capital gave away their technological advantage as soon as it was proven? Perspective, there are people and systems, now called robots, which make decisions which humans can't because the robots can manage much more information that the human mind can absorb and then use to decide. . DBD

Ah, the number 1 determinate of equity pricing is revenue growth. . that's your first clue.
Second clue is industry and products. .
Industrial, manufacturing, commercia, retail, consumer: new products, new services, one time
purchase product or repeat buyers over what time span, and how often, and product life
cycle.
Third clue is near monopoly, oligopoly or very regional marketplaces and diverse competition.
Shows up in margin sensitivity, supply chain effectiveness and purchase price sensitivity,
and revenue growth. . .
Fourth clue is interest rate / inflation / fx rates sensitivity,
Fifth clue is debt to equity and Return on Assets ratios. .
Sixth is event risk: how sensitive is the company to customer events, employee events, new product events, political events, geopolitical events, etc. . which is inversely proportional to size

That's a good start to the analysis, and its not easy, but if you get it right, you can make quite nice returns. . DBD

finance guy

Or you could just watch Jim Cramer every afternoon.

[ithos]

Actually I think that Josh Brown is the best analyst on CNBC. He is quick witted and funny. too.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Boomer

Good afternoon to all you money-talkin’ guys,

Here’s my advice to you:

Keep in mind that in actuality the stock market is exactly like that crazy girlfriend you had in high school…..

Remember……

There were days when you could do no wrong.

And there were days when you could do no right.

But you could never figure out in advance if what you were doing was going to turn out to be right or wrong.

That’s it.

Boomer

PS: No! I am NOT that crazy girlfriend you had in high school.

No, I am reminded more of a crazy College girl friend.

[DAVES]

Originally Posted by JoelJohnson

Warren Buffet once said "Never bet against the US economy". Over time the market always goes up. Remember, the rich own most of the market, they will do whatever it takes to make money over the long term.

My thoughts. I am proudly contrarian. We hear terms such as Buffet Like. Reality we do not trade in the same market as Buffet does. We can trade exactly as Buffet does by buying shares in Berkshire Hathaway. Rich? For perhaps too many their definition of rich is anyone who has more than they do. I compare my results to the S&P. I rarely beat the S&P. Buffet credited with being the greatest stock picker has suggested we simply buy an S&P index.

That option is available to everyone. Do whatever it takes to make money? Not sure what that means. I was an overnight success. It only took me 49 years of hard work and investing.

Buffet spoke about the magic of compounding. Average stock market return is quoted as 7-8%. Actually over the past 15 years it has been almost twice that. At 8% money doubles every 9 years over 49 years that is 5.4 times 10,000=20000 (1)20,000=40,000 (2) 40000=80,000 (3) 80,000=160,000 (4) 160000=360,000 (5) the half=540,000. Fuzzy math perhaps but how it works for all.