[Bay Kid]

Tax credits shouldn't be given to buy anything.

[JMintzer]

Originally Posted by GrumpyOldMan

I get it, you don't want an electric vehicle. Since you normally drive 10 to 12 hours without stopping. (Good bladder!)

You want an affordable car - but don't say what is affordable, and do you include the total cost of ownership in that calculation? Because Tesla 3's are already less expensive than most compacts that are comparably equipped over a 2 or 3 year period. Most mid-priced cars in the US average around $500 to $750 per year in maintenance. If you happen to own a BMW it can run much more. So, you are looking at $5K to $7.5K for your average ICE vehicle over that same 10 years. (Tesla's average annual maintenance for a Model 3 is about $300. or 1/10 of the cost of maintenance on an ICE)

And you certainly shouldn't purchase an EV if you plan on keeping it for more than 10 years since in 10 years it will be obsolete because of advancing technology. Most people replace their cars every 2 or 3 years.

The cost of batteries you are quoting is low, they run around $12,000 for Model 3's. Of course, that assumes battery technology remains totally static and no improvements in price/performance are achieved over the next decade. That could happen, but it would be a unique occurrence that has NEVER happened before in any branch of technology.

Yeah, I agree you should stick to ICE vehicles, I wouldn't want anyone to stress out over what the cost of maintenance would be for their 10-year-old car.

Just curious...

Do you drive an EV? I don't remember you saying if you did or not...

[dtennent]

To those who think the technology can't be developed quickly - Having spent my career at a company which heavily invested in Research, Development and Manufacturing in the development of new technology, I was always impressed by how fast a new plant could come on line once the decision was made to move forward. (3-4 years from planning to finish) While you are correct in saying that cars are more complex than phones, most of the car does not need a lot of new technology. That leaves a few components of which batteries would appear to be the biggest issue. Would you please give a reference which addresses why building new battery factories would be such a long lead time?

[Dana1963]

Originally Posted by dtennent

To those who think the technology can't be developed quickly - Having spent my career at a company which heavily invested in Research, Development and Manufacturing in the development of new technology, I was always impressed by how fast a new plant could come on line once the decision was made to move forward. (3-4 years from planning to finish) While you are correct in saying that cars are more complex than phones, most of the car does not need a lot of new technology. That leaves a few components of which batteries would appear to be the biggest issue. Would you please give a reference which addresses why building new battery factories would be such a long lead time?

Ford announced they are building 3 new battery plants $5.8 to $7 BILLION.
Who will be Arthur Dent and lie to stop progress.
Currently a EV is not in my future I’m sticking with my hybrid at 49mpg highway could be more if I slowed down. Driving in TV my best has been 56mpg with A/C on or fill up tank about 8 weeks.
Recently at 24hrs of LeMans Toyota HyperCard Hybrid w/V6 won race 4 laps ahead of nearest competitors a lap is approximately 8.47 miles

[spd2918]

Originally Posted by GrumpyOldMan

The nice thing about this is no one is holding a gun to anyone's head to buy Teslas. But, EVs are coming and likely in a decade with be the only choice.

They are holding guns to our heads to pay for them (for others to buy luxury cars).

I consider it tithing to the new Green Religion.

I think we need to call them ECE cars, as in external combustion engine cars since they are fueled by natural gas and coal.

[GrumpyOldMan]

Originally Posted by JMintzer

Just curious...

Do you drive an EV? I don't remember you saying if you did or not...

Not yet, we have decided to buy a Tesla, and are waiting a little to see how the market is going to react when more of the "stuff" going on right now gets over with - or maybe I should say, "if it gets over with". We don't like taking funds out of the market when it is so turbulent

But, for me the reason is more the FSD which is now in beta, I don't want to have to drive any more... It would probably be safer for others if I was not driving LOL.

[GrumpyOldMan]

Apparently, Tesla's are a bit too pricey for some posters taste, so here is a tasty rumor - $25,000 model in 2 years possibly with FSD,

I Am Super Excited for the Full Self Driving Tesla Model $25K | CleanTechnica

[biker1]

I will turn this around on you. Why are US automakers projecting that they will only be at 50% electrics in 2030? Why doesn’t Tesla just build a bunch of new battery factories right now since they are battery constrained?

Originally Posted by dtennent

To those who think the technology can't be developed quickly - Having spent my career at a company which heavily invested in Research, Development and Manufacturing in the development of new technology, I was always impressed by how fast a new plant could come on line once the decision was made to move forward. (3-4 years from planning to finish) While you are correct in saying that cars are more complex than phones, most of the car does not need a lot of new technology. That leaves a few components of which batteries would appear to be the biggest issue. Would you please give a reference which addresses why building new battery factories would be such a long lead time?

[spd2918]

=GrumpyOldMan;2013631]Apparently, Tesla's are a bit too pricey for some posters taste, so here is a tasty rumor - $25,000 model in 2 years possibly with FSD,

That's cheap for any type of new car. But His Holiness Elon Musk can sell them below cost, because he is raking it in with "carbon credits."

The carbon credit scheme is government manipulation of the market; they are picking winners and losers. Since Teslas are power by fossil fuels that are converted into electricity, they get to extort manufacturers of cars that run directly on fossil fuels.

Tesla Earned $428 Million With Carbon Credits In Q2 2020: Why That's Bad

[chasandvalr]

Originally Posted by txfan

No problems with either and have both EV car and golf carts. Wouldn’t think of owning gas-powered again.

I like your thinking and agree with you.

[chasandvalr]

[QUOTE=spd2918;2013724][QUOTE=GrumpyOldMan;2013631]Apparently, Tesla's are a bit too pricey for some posters taste, so here is a tasty rumor - $25,000 model in 2 years possibly with FSD,

That's cheap for any type of new car. But His Holiness Elon Musk can sell them below cost, because he is raking it in with "carbon credits."

The carbon credit scheme is government manipulation of the market; they are picking winners and losers. Since Teslas are power by fossil fuels that are converted into electricity, they get to extort manufacturers of cars that run directly on fossil fuels.

Tesla Earned $428 Million With Carbon Credits In Q2 2020: Why That's Bad

Yes, the model 2 will be coming out soon but the styling is not like the current Tesla's. Looks more like an SUV. I'm sure the battery range won't be exciting, either. Doesn't matter, I'm looking forward to seeing them on the road. PS - a motorcycle is in the works, too.

[chasandvalr]

Originally Posted by GrumpyOldMan

Not yet, we have decided to buy a Tesla, and are waiting a little to see how the market is going to react when more of the "stuff" going on right now gets over with - or maybe I should say, "if it gets over with". We don't like taking funds out of the market when it is so turbulent

But, for me the reason is more the FSD which is now in beta, I don't want to have to drive any more... It would probably be safer for others if I was not driving LOL.

I have an ev.

[biker1]

FSD is not Level 5 autonomous driving. I believe it will be 5 years or more before Tesla has Level 5 autonomous driving.

Originally Posted by GrumpyOldMan

Not yet, we have decided to buy a Tesla, and are waiting a little to see how the market is going to react when more of the "stuff" going on right now gets over with - or maybe I should say, "if it gets over with". We don't like taking funds out of the market when it is so turbulent

But, for me the reason is more the FSD which is now in beta, I don't want to have to drive any more... It would probably be safer for others if I was not driving LOL.

[GrumpyOldMan]

Originally Posted by biker1

I will turn this around on you. Why are US automakers projecting that they will only be at 50% electrics in 2030? Why doesn’t Tesla just build a bunch of new battery factories right now since they are battery constrained?

American business is SLOW. I could ask why is ULA (Boeing) still not able to launch a manned spaceship to the space station after 10 years and being many billions over budget? SpaceX with only a small injection (loan/contracts) of government money is regularly launching now.

When Japan took over auto manufacturing quality and production from US car makers using Statical Process Control, it took the US makers decades to recover.

Sadly US business is conservative and slow. Personally, I attribute it to the stock market talking heads. If a public company doesn't meet some bean counters projections it can literally cost them billions. So, they developed a very conservative outlook on business. Ever notice all the US car makers' models look so much alike? Can't take a chance on something innovative - remember Edisel?

Musk is leading the way constantly doing things everyone says can't be done. Lately, Tesla has begun using/testing a unibody press, one of the largest in the world. Reducing part count, cost, and build time compared to traditional manufacturing processes.

Tesla IS building new battery factories all over the world, including Germany, China, Texas, etc. More to come. He is building them as fast as he can finance them.


The most likely reason I can see for a potential slow down in the transition to EVs is probably political. If things go south and the world experiences a depression, well, that could slow down even Musk.

[JMintzer]

Originally Posted by GrumpyOldMan

Apparently, Tesla's are a bit too pricey for some posters taste, so here is a tasty rumor - $25,000 model in 2 years possibly with FSD,

I Am Super Excited for the Full Self Driving Tesla Model $25K | CleanTechnica

Yet you haven't bought one... Too pricey for you?