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Re: US Home Values Bottomed Out?
I cannot stay away from matters of real estate. I have had a fascination with real estate since the late 70's. I was in junior high school at the time. (Boomer lies sometimes. This is one of those places where it is best to just smile and nod and not make any sudden moves. )
Actually, I like to learn what I can about money stuff in general. There is nothing sophisticated about the self-educating I have been doing for a lot of years. It's just an interest. For anyone who does not know about this program but might be interested, I am linking you here to one of my favorite sources for that unsophisticated self-education of mine. This is NPR's "Marketplace Money." This is the weekend edition which is on for an hour. Several topics each week are given a little once-over. This is the one from last weekend. Real estate is among the many topics visited. You can listen if you want to while you continue to read TOTV or whatever. That's what I do sometimes. It was either this past weekend's show or the one before where, if I am remembering it right, somebody said to keep an eye on California because as goes California so goes the nation where real estate is concerned. But I can't swear that this is where I heard that one. So anyway, here's a little light listening, nothing sophisticated about it, but I sure like it, "Marketplace Money" weekend edition. http://marketplace.publicradio.org/e....php?show_id=8 Boomer |
Re: US Home Values Bottomed Out?
Boomer,
Very interesting, but not very optimistic for the near future especially for those of us who bought during the high market three years ago. And for those of us waiting to sell, the outlook is pretty bleak. Would love to hear from anyone who may have heard some good housing news in all of this. |
Re: US Home Values Bottomed Out?
Boomer and others who are interested in this:
Check out the following link. An article in Business Week published "way" back in the good old day of January of THIS year. It now appears that the author had it right. It is interesting to note on page 3 "Douglas Duncan, chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Assn., predicts existing home prices will slip less than 2% this year before beginning to rebound in 2009." Unfortunately, Mr. Duncan has been proved quite wrong because the drop in 2008 is very much higher than a measly 2% as he predicted. Also, on page 4, the article notes a 30-year Fixed Mortgage was 5.5%. Since that time (only 7 months) the average now for the same mortgage is over 6.5% with some charging 6.75%. It is a long read but explains the situation and problems such as people now being upside-down on their home loans. Sellers will have to accept that their homes are not worth the same as they were a couple of years ago. Those who price their homes to market conditions and expectations are selling and avoiding even lower prices in the near future. Tough read but worth reading. http://www.businessweek.com/magazine...0040767516.htm |
Re: US Home Values Bottomed Out?
All these shows and national media information is more broad stroke for what is going on across the country. Not exactly what is happening in the Villages. That market is actually doing quite well. On new homes they sell about 50 a week and resale about 10 a week. And recently they have been removing incentives that they had in the past several months. So the microcosm in The Villages is somewhat different. That market never declined as much as the rest of the US and probably never will. Just look at foreclosures around the country and in TV. Much lower in TV. So it's good to try to have an understanding of the local market vs the national market. Many people who retire buy for cash or use cash from other sources to support those homes. There income is usually stable, social security, retirement annuities etc. so no lay offs or job losses. The hold up most people have moving there is the home they own it that "other market". But many buy now anyway and own two homes for some period of time.
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Re: US Home Values Bottomed Out?
Very true, l2ridehd, that The Villages is unique but it is not totally immune because many potential homebuyers want to relocate but not until they sell elsewhere in the country. When the housing crisis is over and homes begin selling again, TV will be a MAJOR beneficiary and prices will probably rise at a greater percentage rate than just about anywhere else. But, until that leveling out of home sales across the nation takes place, those in TV who MUST sell, and only those who must, will have to price accordingly. TV may not have had the large price reductions on resales that other parts of the country are experiencing, but the reductions are happening in TV, too. Like the stock market, if you don't have to sell, the lower prices today don't matter because those prices will rebound eventually and in The Villages it will be sooner than later.
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Re: US Home Values Bottomed Out?
Read recently that home values in California have dropped by over 1.3 Trillion Dollars since 12/05.
Across the US it must be 15 - 20 Trillion Bucks. Doubt that property taxes have dropped at all! |
Re: US Home Values Bottomed Out?
Peazoup........ we're in the same boat :'( Let's go sailing..........
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v2...n/RedSails.jpg I've already taken down my FSBO sign. Maybe next year :dontknow: |
Re: US Home Values Bottomed Out?
:dontknow:
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Re: US Home Values Bottomed Out?
tkret,
Thanks for the link to the Business Week article. For several years, my subscription to Business Week was a part of the self-educating I was doing. I cut my teeth on Money and Kiplinger Personal Finance and later on [i]Smart Money, but Business Week became my favorite. I like the style of writing in Business Week. For me the articles have enough depth while not going the esoteric route. I do not like reading stuff that makes me feel like my head is being pinched in a vise. You know what, I think I am going to re-up that Business Week subscription. I know I can read stuff online, but I still like an old fashioned magazine with writing style that works for me and with some great cover art from time to time. Boomer Addendum: If anybody is reading this, I apologize for having turned the whole :edit: :edit: thing to italics while trying to just fix some :edit: :edit: :edit: comma or something. I do not know why I insist upon trying to edit something after I have sent it. I will never, never learn. Oh well, I just wanted you to know that "Business Week" is good for me. OK. Maybe somebody else will like it, too. And I also want you to know that these :edit: :edit: :edit: italics are straight from Hell. |
Re: US Home Values Bottomed Out?
This has been a very interesting thread and even though its depressing me even more than I was before its good to get such a good overview of the state of the market. My for sale sign is still up and I am probably going to leave it up and keeping hoping. I am a real estate agent and listing the house myself so I am able to market it well and also get interesting feedback. We have found here, (Upstate SC) that houses in the $120,000 - $200,00 range are still selling, slowly but steadily, but anything above that has slowed to a crawl. And the higher the price the slower the crawl. I have noticed though that in the past couple of weeks there has been more activity, calls and emails on property in general so maybe by 2009 CIB and I will both be in TV!
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Re: US Home Values Bottomed Out?
That price range, mentioned here by ouma1938, is interesting. A few days ago I had a conversation with a banker, nothing official. I was just chatting him up. It's what I do sometimes. I chat up bankers when I run into them. I know. It's weird. Anyway, I asked him if he was seeing investor interest in the single family homes market. He told me that there has been a small interest in single family homes that are not in the really high price range but are in decent neighborhoods.
I was asking the question because I cannot help but wonder where people who still have decent jobs but who sadly stepped flat-footed into this mess, for whatever reason, are going to find nice places to rent. And while they are renting, the market will surely start to get better and the investment in the single family rental would increase in value. I have to stop myself when I start thinking like this. My real estate instinct for some reason has worked OK. But I have never been in it as an investor. Started with the first house long ago for $25,000 and here we are, 7 houses later, in a single-story house perfect for us empty nester boomers. As soon as that cap gains tax law got oh so friendly, I started thinking about doing the downsize to capture keeping the change. I think about this stuff. Mr. Boomer swears I am thinking about selling whatever house when we are moving into it. He still likes me though. But now that we are in our little geezer ranch that we really like and plan to keep, I have started thinking about where all those decent :edit: over people are going to rent when they do not have their houses anymore. And I keep trying to talk myself down from this one. I know it's the thrill of the chase for me. And I do not need to even be thinking this way. But I have never seen such a market as this one. There are some nice homes out there. And there are some nice renters who need them. But I keep asking myself, "What's wrong with this picture?" I know the standard advice against single-family rentals. And I know about the headaches associated with all rentals. But I keep thinking there is a timing in this. I normally like paper investments, but maybe it's time to get one that I can see and touch. I can't help but think that this market is changing all the rules. But I also can't help but think that I just need to get over this. It is not the time of my life to start being somebody's landlord. Even if they are really nice renters. With jobs. But I just cannot help but think about it. And I think I am putting all this stuff out there hoping that somebody in TOTVland will come in here and say that my thinking about the single-family rental market is pure lunacy and then that somebody will explain why and then that somebody will tell this old racehorse to just get herself right back in the barn. Methinks me thinks too much. Boomer |
Re: US Home Values Bottomed Out?
OK Boomer, take a gander at this opinion by Barry Ritholtz the CEO and Director for Equity Research for Fusion IQ, an independent research firm.
Slowing Foreclosures? Posted by Barry Ritholtz on Tuesday, August 12, 2008 | 11:30 AM in Credit | Data Analysis | Legal | Real Estate Get ready for some more Housing bottom calls! Thanks to some interesting regulations passed by New York, California, and Massachusetts, additional notice is required before initiating foreclosure procedures. Hence, the defaults and repossessions procedures we woulod have seen begin in August and September wont show up until October and November. Here is a an excerpt from the WSJ: "When the research firm RealtyTrac Inc. releases its latest foreclosure report Thursday, don't be surprised if the number of filings declines again. Last month, RealtyTrac reported that foreclosure filings totaled 252,363 in June, down 3% from the previous month. Some analysts are expecting the July data to show another decline or very little change. If that happens, could the improvement be a sign that the foreclosure problem is ebbing? Probably not. The data may reflect several developments aimed at reducing foreclosures, including new state and municipal laws that put a temporary moratorium on foreclosures. Such laws are designed to give homeowners more time to work with their lenders and modify troubled loans. Some cynics say the laws are designed to give the appearance that the housing crisis is easing ahead of the November elections." What are the new legislative rules for foreclosure notices ? ∙ California requires lenders to wait an additional 30 days after a homeowner misses the first payment before filing a default notice; ∙ Massachusetts now gives homeowners a three-months grace period after they default on their mortgage before the lender can file to foreclose. (The law is credited with an 84% drop in foreclosure petitions); ∙ New York which passed a bill last week that requires lenders to send a preforeclosure notice to certain borrowers at least 90 days before foreclosure proceedings may be initiated; Of course, these notice requirements only delay the inevitable for the vast majority of foreclosures. Expect more false bottom calls in the housing market of the next 90 days. |
Re: US Home Values Bottomed Out?
Hey Boomer,
If you're tempted to "invest" in real estate, why not buy a property in TV? You can rent it out for sure for at least 3-4 months a year, and use it yourself for vacations at other times of the year. While not the relative bargain that depressed markets in OH and other areas might be, a good investment nonetheless. Just a thought. |
Re: US Home Values Bottomed Out?
Boomer,
IMHO Villages07 has an excellent idea here. I know that if I had money to invest in Real Estate I would most certainly consider TV. The rental market is in demand, the clients can be counted upon to be respectful of your property, and the upside potential in the future may be considerable. Great advice Villages07. Quote:
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Re: US Home Values Bottomed Out?
I know V'07 and I think about that one, too. I just can't get past the hangup that if I have a second home, I don't want to rent it out. I am just weird about that. I want to be able to just show up whenever I feel like it. And besides, renters feel most like renting when owners feel like being there. But I will give it some more thought. I am tied to a project here for right now, too.
Also, the weather here in the Ohio Valley is completely spectacular. But just wait. When winter arrives, with its usual vengeance, I will no doubt wish that I had not been such a grasshopper. I am up here in Ohio, just rolling around in my green, green grass and looking up at my blue, blue sky. Ohhhhhhh, I am going to be so sorry. You will all mock me when you see the Boomermobile cruising through the neighborhoods and you see me get my pale, pale self out and go from door to door, dragging my golf clubs behind me, begging Villagers to take me in. I know. I know. But I just don't want to be a landlord there. I just want to hang out when I want to hang out. I just don't want to own to rent in TV. Boomer is a complicated woman sometimes. Probably Boomer just needs to be the renter there one more time and then figure it all out. I think the decision to make TV your permanent home is so much easier than making the decision to buy a second home, especially one that you don't want to rent out. And tkret, Thanks for the last article, too. This mess is making me sick. Really. It's not good for any of us. It never should have happened. I could see it coming and I am but a bumpkin. Why couldn't our alleged leaders see it? I guess the lobbyists got in their way. I hate seeing so many decent Americans having their lives put on hold because of the unrestrained greed of a relative few. The kind of property I might want to buy as a rental here in Ohio would not necessarily be a foreclosure but one that is on the market for a different reason. Like maybe somebody who has sense enough to move totally to TV or something. I do not want to be Boomer Trump or anything. I am thinking about just one. And I am not even thinking about a bottom price, but just a nice place at a price that I know is good. I would not make a good speculator. But investing is a little different in my dictionary. I really need to get over this. Like I said, I cannot stay away from matters of real estate. Boomer Hey, I hit send and saw that tkret thinks I should buy rental in TV, too. Wow. This is taking a whole new turn. More to think about it seems. This is a little like what I was working through in that "Quest for the Dress" thing a couple of weeks ago, but this one has a much bigger price tag. And I don't think the answer will come to me as quickly. But thanks for the insight. It helps. (I do not know why I just can't be a normal retired person. :dontknow: Of course, why would I start being normal now?) |
Re: US Home Values Bottomed Out?
Hey Boomer,
F16 has a lovely lakefront house in KY (near Cincinnati) for sale...last night on chat he was offering it to MariaB and was ready to throw Sadie Mae into the deal (but, I'm sure he was just kidding). |
Re: US Home Values Bottomed Out?
Boomer, If I don't leave my drawers there, I can rent it out. I am referring of course to any personal effects. We do not rent out our Pa home because we have so much personal "stuff" there. We had emptied the Mallory home and then completely refurnished it. I have nothing personal there so it's ok to rent it out. When the market turns and we can recoup our investment, then we'll sell it. For you as a buyer, now is a great time. I almost said perfect, but who knows?
Stepford awaits you...step into the light!! ;D We love living here. |
Re: US Home Values Bottomed Out?
We were extremely fortunate to have sold our home in IL in less than three months. I'm convinced it was the brilliant marketing of our sales rep and how I staged my home.
I have friends who are dying to move here but they have to sell their home first. They need the funds from the sale to buy here. Withdrawing from their investments or 401k involves pentalities plus one couple still has a mortgage on their home so buying a home here and having two motgage payments will hurt them financially. I think if you have the funds to do both, keep the house up north and buy a home here, that's a great way to go but if you need the funds from your existing home to buy a home in TV; you're pretty much stuck. |
Re: US Home Values Bottomed Out?
Oh V'07 and Sam, Ladies of Stepford, I know. I know. And Sam, thanks for the tip on keeping track of my drawers.
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Oh my, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and now Sadie Mae. All this talk of real estate is making my poor old Boomer head spin. (and I cannot seem to stop) Peggy Sue Boomer |
Re: US Home Values Bottomed Out?
Boomer, I think Sam has the type of setup that would make renting your home or villa in The Villages financially feasible. If you are out of state, it becomes more costly.... IMHO. It is not inexpensive, to say the least, owning two homes even if there are no mortgages involved. If you own in The Villages some of the expenses involved are: water, electric, perhaps gas, telephone, cable, taxes, bug control, lawn maintenance, weed pulling in the landscaping and trimming, exterior washing and perhaps painting, amenity fees, bond, (if applicable), maybe a savings acct for reshingling the roof because of shorter lifespan than northern roofs, insurances which would also have to cover renter liabilites and probably an umbrella policy to cover your personal assets and I may be missing other items. If you are out of state, you need to have someone to manage the property plus cleaning/replacement/repair expenses when the renter leaves. Then add the costs of owning your northern home. Mr Peachie and I very carefully weighed costs vs income and felt in the long run renting would help us pay for the cost of owning a second home but we could probably generate more income in investments. (We also don't like sharing our mattress and linens with others and we want to be here in February and March, not in a snowbank in Poedunk.) At this point in our lives, we want a little less responsibility and a little more time for pursuing interests we've never had time for previously. If villa rentals go to $4,000./mo prime season, we will rethink our current position, lol. Just another perspective...
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Re: US Home Values Bottomed Out?
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I think that you should change your career of brain surgeon, aeronautical engineer, genetic programmer or whatever the heck your current "project" is and become a houses sales rep down here in TV. You are SO knowledgable on the subject and everyone will love you. Plus we all will be able to see and touch you and know if you are real! Plus you will make so much money you can take us out for dinner at least once a week. Whatdya think? Huh? Huh? Kind wishes, GG |
Re: US Home Values Bottomed Out?
For whats its worth....check out the article in today's WSJ.....if Mr Greenspan is right.....we will not see the bottom until possibly the end of next year.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1218..._us_whats_news |
Re: US Home Values Bottomed Out?
Quote:
I am leaving today to hang out with people I can actually see, but I will check the article. Somewhere in this vast number of posts that I cannot seem to stop writing, I did a little rant on Greenspan. Hellooooooo Alan, what were ya thinkin'? I know the drill about the fed's fear of inflation. I was around in the Carter years. (A mere child I was, of course. But around just the same.) When Greenspan kept dropping that rate, every time he would come out and see his shadow, I used to yell at him. I would holler, "Hey, AG, I know you are a bloomin' genius. But you're lookin' a little tunnel visioned to me. I know you used to party with Ayn Rand. Well, maybe you shoulda been partying with Boomer. Because this ain't gonna work." Greenspan was way too easy. Boomer always knew better than to be easy. But Alan would not listen to me. I know. I know. Boomer is but a bumpkin. And I know it is/was a much bigger picture than just Greenspan. An economy that had been allowed to become a house of cards. Plastic cards. And I have no idea what happened to usury laws. I remember when I first began to see those payday loan places start showing up in strip malls. I did not get it. How could that be legal? I was pretty tempted to buy a little banking stock a few years ago. But I could not do it. Something just was not right. I would rather have had Altria. At least tobacco warns about the poison being picked. Much more honest than banking. I have got to get out of here. I could do two or three more verses. But it's lunch with the girls today. When I try to talk about this stuff with some of my friends, they look at me like I am from Mars. But I really am from Venus. Boomer |
Re: US Home Values Bottomed Out?
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An interesting article and even the author, David Wessel, states that Alan's "crystal ball has been cloudy". Mr. Wessel is being kind. This is what AG "predicted" in 2006 "I suspect that we are coming to the end of this downtrend, as applications for new mortgages, the most important series, have flattened out. I don't know, but I think the worst of this may well be over." -Alan Greenspan, October 6, 2006 Sorry, but those in the trenches, like RealtyTrac, for instance, say 2009 is too soon! Even with all the government attempts to help struggling homeowners, foreclosures continue to rise. This adds to the imbalance between between buyers and sellers. When this happens in any commodity, that effects the price of the item....too much inventory results in lower prices. |
Re: US Home Values Bottomed Out?
(gottaleavegottastoplookingingottastoptalkingabout thisstuffgottagotalkaboutdifferentstuff.)
tkret, I was going to read the article later, but I could not resist and read it post morning rant. I tried to tell AG. Really. I did. Now, I fear that AG may be guilty of irrational exuberance. Boomer Cassandra |
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i guess....after all is said and done...and all the "experts" chime in......no one really has the (correct) answer to the question.
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Re: US Home Values Bottomed Out?
I took the plunge. As there are such good buys in TV, I recently bought a home even though my "up north" home hasn't sold yet. I figure I can rent one or the other until the market picks up.
CIB and others waiting - have you considered doing this? 040 |
Re: US Home Values Bottomed Out?
Peazoup........ YES..... I am considering buying & renting out a TV home and having it managed by someone; however, I still haven't visited TV yet. Maybe this winter :dontknow:
I've learned from experience to avoid speculation - therefore, I'll probably wait until I sell in Oregon and then rent for a year in TV and then invest in TV. I know, I know that y'all say that TV is all about the lifestyle - and it is - but it's also an investment and I want to get it right inasmuch as I got it WRONG when I bought my Oregon Dream Home at the height of the r/e market ::) |
Re: US Home Values Bottomed Out?
It looks to me like prices are continuing to drop. The middle class is shrinking at an alarming rate.
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Re: US Home Values Bottomed Out?
It would seem that there are some incredible values to be had in real estate right now. And at some point buyers will recognize this. That is the good news. The bad news is that along with tighter loan standards, inflation seems to be returning with a vengeance and mortgage rates could take a sharp upturn shortly. Adding to that, the barrage of bad news had had its effect and a lot of buyers are scared of commiting to a new or larger mortgages. Meaning, I don't have a clue when the real estate market will stabilize and I rather doubt anyone else does either. Tell me what the interest rate of a 30 year fixed rate mortgage will be a year from now and I'll offer my 'expert' opinion.
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I commend your articulate writing skill I loved your quote on unrestraind greed Oh so true !! What a big mess we are in. Can You imagine running for the office of President of the US?
Yes It's not over till the fat lady sings I hope she's tuning up her vocals at least . Hope this reply is not a mess to view Quote:
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Re: US Home Values Bottomed Out?
Quote:
http://www2.tbo.com/content/2008/aug...ly/news-money/ |
bump for tkret
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I think home prices are starting to stablize
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It was interesting reading through these posts that are a year old. Still, we do not know if prices have bottomed out. I don'y see the bottom yet here in Taxachusetts. Not many houses moving, either.:confused:
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Here in Norcal we hear that the housing in the San Joaquin Valley that was hit the hardest is starting to see some upward movement with multiple offers. Prices there are down around 50% from the top of the bubble.
On my street in the East Bay, there were two house empty for over a year and both have sold and are occupied. Another newly empty has gone on the market as "bank owned" and seems to be getting a lot of traffic. Got our fingers crossed that this 2 will pass. . |
That was deja vu -- all over again
When I saw this thread reappear, I looked back through it. It was weird to see something I had written a year ago on this topic. And the young couple I wrote about who had done everything right with their mortgage and all that. They are still in that Arizona house. But from what they thought was a dream house, they still see empty, neglected houses wherever they look.
This whole thing was vile. Still is. Sure. There were some stupid borrowers. But that is not the reason for the magnitude of this collapse. Unscrupulous lenders. Derivatives. No regulation. The arms and legs are still growing. So many jobs depend upon the housing market. And then to have the car industry hit at the same time as housing. A hellish scenario. I have heard that things are picking up a little. Once people begin to feel safer in their jobs, houses will move better. There is a lot of caution out there right now. If the tax credits had been expanded beyond first-time buyers (and I think a 3 years since owning time period) that would have moved some real estate. But nobody ever asks me. Even if I did see it coming. Just like all of you probably did, too. But we sure did not want to be right. And please pardon another deja vu, but like I kept saying, "Unrestrained greed is not only bad morals, it's bad economics." But I still, to this day, do not know who said that first. And I still have not had the bumper stickers printed. It would be kind of long for a bumper sticker. But it would probably fit on the back end of my GM car. Boomer |
Here in the Puget Sound (Seattle) they didn't go as low as they did in alot of the US as we had less subprime lending. I don't know if it was state statues or what but the real wacked out loans that we were offered (and didn't take) in Atlanta in 2003 where not offered when we came here in 2006.
Here the low end ($400,00) of the market is comeing back and the High end (over a mil) of the market is also. But the sales volume is still low. Whats flat or still down here is the middle. But our housing prices have been 130% of the national average since the early 90's so they where and still are high compared to the average salary of the young working families. and there in lies the problem. A recent appraisal on our house puts it at 2% above what we bought in 2006 but we have done work and have another 50 thousand of impovements left (that with ou doing the work) |
Being 2% above a 2006 sale price is amazing!
Houses in the SF East Bay are about 33.3% or more less than the early 2006 prices. . |
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Let us pray Yoda |
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