[dreamweaver]

Are there any financial/economist/predictors out there? What are your opinions on the housing slump that has affected many parts of the country? How long do you think it will last before prices are on the rise again? So many of us are just hanging in waiting for our northern homes to sell so we can finally make it down to TV. Opinions????

[graciegirl]

Looking at my watch. In my opinion it should bottom out soon.

My opinion only, for what it is worth. We bought in April. Got a new home for what we considered a very good price. I think some are lower still here.

As my sainted mother would say about your selling your house. "Things are bound to get better soon".

[barbie]

Prices here in Maryland are the same as they were a year ago. Nothing has dropped but things are just sitting too. We put our house on the market in mid April after returning from our annual winter in TV and its just not moving. We should have made the move a year ago but it just wasn't the time. A year ago our house would have sold within the first couple of weeks. Now we can't get people in to look. There is just so much inventory out there now.

If it ever sells we'll be one of "The Village People" to. If its meant to be it will happen.

Its not like we're miserable here. There is just so much more for us in TV.

[784caroline]

IN N Va I have been reading it will not get any better until mid 2009 at the earliest. Even that prediction does not mean price increases.....most likely it means stabilization of prices and not reductions. Since the fall of 2006 prices home prices (400-500K range) have dropped about 21% but there are still many houses available who cannot sell even with a 21% price reduction. There is simply put alot of inventory out there either foreclosures or people that need to move and cant. Once things start to stabilize in fall 2009 and into 2010, you then will have the people who rented instead of selling and NOW have to sell for tax purposes ie need to live in your principal residence 2 out of the last 5 years for no capital gain tax. This will result in another increase in the number of properties available for sale which would not be good for price appreciation. In fact the people who NEED to sell because of tax reasons could actually bring the market price back down because of the "time" issue an these properties may be harder to sell since they are now occupied by tennants!
My prediciton is that it is not going to be the hey-days in real estate (2004-2005) for a number of years to come.

[chuckinca]

Read in the San Francisco paper today that 44% of May home sales in Contra Costa County and 26% ditto in Alameda County were foreclosures. These are the two "East Bay" counties with a total population of about 2.5 Mil. The article further stated that due to the large number of foreclosure sales it was driving the average sales prices down to about 25% of what it was at the peak; however, sales of non foreclosed homes were only about 5 - 7% lower than the peak. Historically, foreclosure sales are much lower than normal sales.

[jadebox]

My friend, a Realtor, in San Antonio sold 6 homes this month. I need to ask him if the sellers got good prices for them.

[tkret]

Don't forget that the MAJOR job layoffs haven't begun yet. Of course, the airlines and banks have started to furlough employees but what about the other industries once the consumer really starts keeping the purse closed. When the other parts of the economy look to conserve cash by letting employees go, foreclosures will rise even further. This is the worse housing mess since the Great Depression. 2009 is too early for the end. IMHO we're only in the 7th inning of a 9 inning game hoping it doesn't go into extra innings.
Keep an eye on the unemployment rate; layoffs are the enemy of housing.

[784caroline]

HOPE
Any house can sell if you give it away and alot of people have to do that in ordder to move on with their lives. Granted not all major markets are effected as much as others but from what I am reading MOST are. Houses are selling in N Va but at dramatically reduced prices. The fact that they are selling is GOOD...but there are alot of them out there!

[Barefoot]

Selling at market value is not "giving your house away". It is accepting what a willing purchaser will pay, and moving on with your life. Prices now in TV are also low. Win/win!

A Villages sales rep tells me that due to the increase in gas prices, and the cost of purchasing and transporting building materials, the price of Villages new homes will soon be going up. Hard to see how this can happen if the prices elsewhere are going down! But the Villages Sales Department has always maintained that because TV is "unique", the price decreases aren't as severe in TV.

I hope that tkret is wrong, but IMHO, I think he may be right.

Originally Posted by tkret

When the other parts of the economy look to conserve cash by letting employees go, foreclosures will rise even further. 2009 is too early for the end. IMHO we're only in the 7th inning of a 9 inning game hoping it doesn't go into extra innings.

[Franz and Pat]

We live in Maine, on the water with a dock and a deep salt water mooring for a boat. We thought we would have no trouble selling. Think again. We have lowered the price 50K since it went on the market-- no takers. Only three lookers. With the high fuel costs even the boaters are down about 50%. Well, we got tired of waiting and bought in the villages about a month ago. Will be down in October. Will return to Maine next summer to try again. It sort of gets one down. But thinking on the bright side-- we are moving on with our life. See you in the fall.

Franz and Pat :bigthumbsup:

[tkret]

Here is food for thought: historically when the inventory of unsold homes on the market is at 6 months or under, prices tend to rise. However, when that figure rises above 6 months, of course the opposite takes place. Currently, on a national level, the inventory of unsold homes is just under 10 months with some areas of the country significantly higher than that.

When a merchant has too much inventory on his store shelves he has no alternative than to put it on sale. Homeowners, although they don't think so, MUST price their homes to market. They must price it at what a consumer (buyer) is willing to pay for it.

[dreamweaver]

Thanks for all interesting input. From your comments and from what I'm hearing on the news, the hard hit areas will not begin to rebound for at least another year to year and a half. In fact, perhaps we haven't seen the end of the decline yet - especially in places like the Northeast. Trouble is that the foreclosures are bringing our property values down. Those who bought 3 years ago have seen a decline in value of approximately 13% - so far. Can you imagine the influx of people to TV once the market gets back on track, whatever back on track means.

[inda50]

Originally Posted by tkret

Don't forget that the MAJOR job layoffs haven't begun yet. Of course, the airlines and banks have started to furlough employees but what about the other industries once the consumer really starts keeping the purse closed. When the other parts of the economy look to conserve cash by letting employees go, foreclosures will rise even further. This is the worse housing mess since the Great Depression. 2009 is too early for the end. IMHO we're only in the 7th inning of a 9 inning game hoping it doesn't go into extra innings.
Keep an eye on the unemployment rate; layoffs are the enemy of housing.

I agree, with all the news I think it may only be the sixth inning

[captain1202]

Agree with "tkret".

Some things to think about.....

Gas at $4,$5,$6 /gallon. Who can afford 100 mile commutes on a daily basis?

Food prices increasing dramatically due to drought, floods, ethanol, etc. up about 23% year over year.

Heating oil at sky hi prices...$650 for a tank fill. That shoe will drop this fall.

Increases to come from utilities for energy related costs.

Municipalities increasing taxes due to revenue shortfalls

Not to mention bank failures, and the soon to arrive consumer credit crisis.

Oh, and the likely bankruptcy of at least one major auto maker and perhaps more than one major airline.

The dollar is dropping like a stone due to the Fed's lame policies which is and will continue to wreak havoc on the cost of our imports, which if you haven't noticed is just about EVERYTHING we use on a daily basis.

These are just the basics. Seriously, does anyone remember a time when so many thing s were lining up in a financial "Perfect Storm"? I don't.

It's all going to be a BIG problem on folks with fixed incomes VERY soon.

Hoping for the best, preparing for the worst.....

[graciegirl]

We need to stop the bleeding. Try to encourage legislation to keep people from getting loans with ARM and making them have a down payment. Hopefully this awful time will scare people into realizing that the old habits of saving and living within your income are good ones.

The oil issue is not easily resolved and that is frightening. We will have to make drastics changes there. I am absolutely without an answer.