Hold the good thought. When we came back to Seattle in 06 I saw this house come on the market, that had view, was sturdy but needed alot of work. We got carried away with the money to be made and lept in. We (I hope) won't loose money but some of our friends think we are nuts to put more into it, as we could get our money out as a tear down. We just can't give up on the dream so away we go, once more into the breach. This is our 5th remodel and my husband says after this he sells my sawsall. (He has come home from work in the past to find walls torn out. I guess I'm nuts

If Gasoline goes Up as expected
 

the whole economy will slow and be sluggish.... I'd say early 2010 at best.........

I appreciate your professional realtor's opinion. I have that right don't I, you are a realtor? We are planning to sell summer 2011. If the gas prices going up is a given then I need to buy more TS (tenaris they make pipes for oil drilling) stock maybe as a balance.

Bottom of the market
 

Yes, I am a Realtor with REMAX specializing in The Villages :pepper2:...... business is very slow in The Villages both new and Pre-owned.... Prices are still coming down... There has been a bump in pending...but mostly low end bargain hunters... See The Villages Market Analysis

http://www.lylesellsfla.com/frame.sh...91eb2fe491.pdf

I thought that might be you. I used all the statistics from your site for my analysis model and I thank you. My realator here says that if we spend the 50 to 60 thou to update this place I can get an additional 200 thou for it (we have the best schools, shortest commute to the city, and near the new light rail to be completed in 2011(We Hope) if he is half right we will be having you find us a place in 2011,:thumbup: hang in there.

GG, do you have an estimate of how many pre-owned homes are for sale in The Villages? The last time I looked on TV website there were over 500 thru them. Add in listings thru realtors and FSBO's there must be a lot. Tks.

Interesting that the monthly MLS sales over the past three years have stayed in the 15 - 25/mo range while the active listings has increased from around 100 to around 300/mo.

A lot of people in TV want to sell and can't - pretty much like everywhere else.


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Lets say there are 500 VLS homes for sale. And there must be close to that by realtors. Usually less then VLS, so say 400. And add another 200 FSBO, probably high, but possible. That's 1100 homes for sale. OMG is that a lot? If there are 40,000 homes, that is around 2.5%. My numbers must be way off, lets double it and say 5%. Still one of the lowest resale markets in the country. So stop the doom and gloom and realize that this is still a great market when compared to the rest of the country.

I was looking at it not from a gloom and doom perspective, but rather as a good time to buy!

According to Lyle Gant's website, MLS had about 275 active properties at the end of April 09 (nearly three times what was active in May 06) and monthly sales of about 25 units.

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I don't know - it seemed like a good time to buy for us. We plan on living here at least 10 years - maybe more. We bought what we netted on our old home with a little left over for my husband to get his tricked out golf car. I just retired and was ready to get on with the rest of our lives -I figure as long as it is paid for it doesn't really matter what it cost or is worth if we are living in it. It only matters when you sell. By the time we sell, we will let our kids worry about what it is worth.

I think it's a great time to buy. Never try to time the very bottom or the very top of any market. You will most always miss. However if your willing to hit within 20% of a top or bottom then you will almost always hit your target. The housing market is still moving, but % wise a very small amount. In some markets it has even started to move up. The low end of the market, (first time home buyers), is actually heating up with homes selling at or above asking price. High end market still weak, but stable.

So home prices will probably not move much one way or the other for a while, probably stay flat, but I would suggest that the downside of home prices has ended and the next move of any significance will be up. So if you have waited, planning to, thinking about it, looking with interest, or considering buying you are probably looking at your last low cost opportunity. Continuing to wait will almost certainly cost you more. In price, interest rate, deal structure, but in some way cost you more.

Well said. I agree that the best window of opportunity for buying is probably right now.

On the downside for wannabes like us, it's a tough time to sell. Kind of a good news - bad news scenario.

Yes? No? Maybe so?
 

Once upon a time the decision to buy a retirement home was easier. When the market was hot, or even when the market was just plain normal, a lot of buyers figured that if they bought and then for some reason needed or wanted to sell, it would be relatively easy to turn the property around fairly quickly.

Now Gray Goose says that recent bumps in TV’s pendings have been mostly on the low end. So who are those buyers? Those who want only to be landlords? Or maybe speculators?

Well, for what it’s worth, I think maybe TV is seeing buyers, for now, coming in with far greater caution than in the past. Tiptoeing in, getting the lay of the land, making sure it is what they want. Those types of buyers have always been there, but I bet there are more for now.

You know, many of us are used to our real estate taking really good care of us. Not only have we never lost money in real estate, but we may have become used to expecting some really seriously lovely profits. But now we know that was once upon a time. And the happy ending is not a sure thing.

The psychology of the market may be that retirement home buyers, in particular, are finding themselves in what, to some, may be a period of adjustment, while to others it is reality therapy. No longer throwing caution to the wind.

So who are those buyers of those lower cost TV homes? Landlords? Speculators? Maybe. But I have a feeling that a few could have been renting for awhile, maybe even for years. Some of those renters, who really love it in TV, perhaps have decided, after weighing the cost of years of renting, that it might make sense to just buy in on the lower cost end now. (In fact, I know somebody who did that. So that’s one.)

And there could be a larger number of those lower end buyers who plan to live there year round but are just being a lot more cautious than they might have been before all this economic mess. I know that people change houses in TV all the time, smaller to bigger, bigger to smaller. But I bet a bigger percentage start smaller now with a wait and see attitude. And if they come in with cash, they just might be holding onto a chunk of it by buying smaller than originally planned. Holding some back for stuffing the mattress. Stuffing the mattress with cash can go a long way for that cost of sleep factor. There has to be more mattress stuffing going on with the retirement home market now. And TV provides such a range of choices in houses. And everybody gets access to the same things. And the sunshine is everywhere.

But my little theory should not make anybody sad for the future of selling bigger homes in TV. My theory says that when the dust settles, those buyers coming in smaller will move up to the higher end in a larger percentage than usual.

So that is the trend theory according to Boomer. Please remember that it is totally useless, worthless information coming from me. Heck, I am in Ohio. I am not a real estate agent. Once had a license long ago. But I never really used it. Just wanted to know about real estate.

But I think if I were an agent in TV, I would be saying, “Gimme all those lower end listings I can get." Sure an agent would have to sell more of them to equal the price of one big sale. But if done right, I bet the agent will have a lot of repeat buyers down the road. All agents love those big sales, but getting those sales in today's market is not easy. I guess agents have to sell those smaller sales, in relation to bigger sales, at 2 to 1 or 3 to 1 maybe. So, for now, I guess the attitude has to be "If You're Not With The One You Love, Love The One You're With."

(But I really do not know anything about what's going on with real estate trends in TV. I am just sitting here typing because it started raining on me while I was working outside. So I hurried inside, lest I melt, and the next thing I know, here I am typing a bunch of you know what.)

Boomer, in theory

My 59 YO brother and his wife are looking for a manufactured home under $100K to use for 2 to 3 months in the winter. They don't want to sell their home in the Chicago Burbs and not be near their two daughters and four grandkids. I would imagine in about 5 years they would start spending more time in TV and less in Chgo.

Probably very typical.

Hey Chuck,

Soooo, it sounds like you could maybe agree somewhat with my theory posted this afternoon in this thread. I think there might be more full-timers of tomorrow than ever coming in through the historic side today.

..........Got the Ohio house where I want it. Need a little sunshine in my life come January. Hmmmmmmmm........

Uh oh, it is after midnight. Uh oh. I have no business typing.

Goodnight.
Boomer

Sort of - except that our mother lived in the historic side for nearly 18 years and we have spent many sunny days at the Tiki Bar Pool so it is like home to us.
(our other bro, from KC, has mom's place on Boone Ct)

This year the weather in Calif was nicer than TV so next winter we are coming down in February.

NIGHTY-NITE!

Chuck