[tkret]

still no sign of a bottom...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19953440/
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080724/home_sales.html

[l2ridehd]

Washington is doing nothing to solve these problems because they want bad news.* And housing and gas affect all of us so they are partying in the streets.* I live here and see it.* Congress will never take any action as long as they think bad news will cause voters to give them more power.* Get rid of the incumbents in both parties and continue to do that until they respond to voters.* Congress approval rating has fallen from 34% to 9% in the last two years.* It is because we elected a Democratic congress and have a Republican President.* Would be the same if it was reversed.* Nancy Polosi and the current incumbents will do NOTHING to solve ANY problem until after January 2009.* It's all about power.*

So my best guess is that action by DC will occur next January February time frame.* Those actions will start to have an impact by May or June and everything will be grand before the next elections.* Again all about power.* That cycle will happen regardless of who wins in November.*

However those that plan to buy in TV over the next 12 to 18 months should do it soon if at all possible.* Figure out what it will cost you to carry two homes for that amount of time and see if it makes sense to buy before prices head back up.* Buying now could save you as much as 25% of what it will cost you after your home sells.* So if your buying a 250K home in TV and your carrying costs for a year are 25K, you would probably save 25K by doing it now.* Later on that 250K home will be 300K.* Besides that you can at least start enjoying it now and over the longer term you will end up saving money.* TV does have a unique market and because of that it was one of the last places prices dropped and it will be one of the first to recover.* So IMHO now is a really good time to buy and carry two homes for a year.* Remember investment advise 101, buy when things are out of favor, sell when everyone else is buying.* If that is even a little bit true, now is the best time you will ever have to be a Villages owner.*

[ConeyIsBabe]

WAAAAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaal :'( :'( :'( Now I'm really depressed :'( :'(

On the phone..... ordering another truckload of madrone - for the wood stove :dontknow:

[Sidney Lanier]

At the risk of being accused of being a 'chicken little' by those who maintain in the face of what's going on around us that everything is just hunky dory (everything from stalled real estate to gas and heating oil prices to more and more foreclosures and the Fannie May/Freddie Mac situation to increases in the prices of food and just about everything else because of increased transportation costs and ... and ... and ... and ... you get the point ...), I believe that we are far from the end of what's going on.

However, to go back to the specific topic about whether real estate prices have reached their bottom and are starting back up, the best anyone's crystal ball can predict is that (1) it's really unknown at this point and (2) it's also going to depend where--this is a BIG country. Doesn't help much, does it? We ourselves were fortunate in that it was our intention to be snowbirds, so we didn't have to sell to buy in TV, but we know and are concerned about so many others who are caught between a rock and a hard place....

[Donna]

S.L., I really didn't need to read this....LOL

A BIG Rock, and a very, HARD place!! :yikes: :yikes: :yikes: :yikes:

[Just Susan]

I agree Donna. This is not the kind of thing those of us who are trying to get to TV needs to read.

It is hard enough keeping up a positive attitude.

I don't mean "rose colored glasses", "head in the sand while the world caves in around you" attitude either. I mean trying to stay motivated and upbeat, when you are up against impossible odds and an economy that is the result of Corporate greed and political Laissez-faire economics.

Of course the posters have the right to discuss this topic here, I just have to keep myself away from this kind of posting...or learn to love being depressed.

[Sidney Lanier]

Sorry, Donna and Susan&Tom, just an opinion; I could be (and wish I am) dead wrong....

[Donna]

Don't worry S.L., I love you anyway!!

I am trying to keep a positive attitude, homes are still selling in TV, anfd that is a good sign...

Lets keep a positive attitude peeps...

[chuckinca]

In our Norcal East Bay neighborhood:

A home across the street put up a 4 sale sign two weeks ago and now has a sale pending sign! And not a vacant foreclosed property.

The two vacant, foreclosed homes across the street have had 4 sales signs up for six months or so - both have sold in the past month. No more vacant homes on our block!!!


Can offers over asking prices be far behind ? ? ?

[captain1202]

Anyone interested in a GREAT overview of what's going on in the financial markets should pick up Kevin Phillips new book, "Bad Money". Also on audio.

It's a fascinating treatise on the whole run-up to what we're experiencing now and how it's all been orchestrated by the Fed and the money people to create a financial industry that will replace the manufacturing and computer industries being shipped overseas.

I'm only 3/4 of the way through and will read it again to absorb it all but it really answers a lot of questions.

[Boomer]

I cannot stay away from matters of real estate. I have had a fascination with real estate since the late 70's. I was in junior high school at the time. (Boomer lies sometimes. This is one of those places where it is best to just smile and nod and not make any sudden moves. )

Actually, I like to learn what I can about money stuff in general. There is nothing sophisticated about the self-educating I have been doing for a lot of years. It's just an interest.

For anyone who does not know about this program but might be interested, I am linking you here to one of my favorite sources for that unsophisticated self-education of mine. This is NPR's "Marketplace Money." This is the weekend edition which is on for an hour.

Several topics each week are given a little once-over. This is the one from last weekend. Real estate is among the many topics visited. You can listen if you want to while you continue to read TOTV or whatever. That's what I do sometimes.

It was either this past weekend's show or the one before where, if I am remembering it right, somebody said to keep an eye on California because as goes California so goes the nation where real estate is concerned. But I can't swear that this is where I heard that one.

So anyway, here's a little light listening, nothing sophisticated about it, but I sure like it, "Marketplace Money" weekend edition.

http://marketplace.publicradio.org/e....php?show_id=8

Boomer

[Peazoup]

Boomer,
Very interesting, but not very optimistic for the near future especially for those of us who bought during the high market three years ago. And for those of us waiting to sell, the outlook is pretty bleak.
Would love to hear from anyone who may have heard some good housing news in all of this.

[tkret]

Boomer and others who are interested in this:

Check out the following link. An article in Business Week published "way" back in the good old day of January of THIS year. It now appears that the author had it right. It is interesting to note on page 3 "Douglas Duncan, chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Assn., predicts existing home prices will slip less than 2% this year before beginning to rebound in 2009." Unfortunately, Mr. Duncan has been proved quite wrong because the drop in 2008 is very much higher than a measly 2% as he predicted.
Also, on page 4, the article notes a 30-year Fixed Mortgage was 5.5%. Since that time (only 7 months) the average now for the same mortgage is over 6.5% with some charging 6.75%.

It is a long read but explains the situation and problems such as people now being upside-down on their home loans. Sellers will have to accept that their homes are not worth the same as they were a couple of years ago. Those who price their homes to market conditions and expectations are selling and avoiding even lower prices in the near future. Tough read but worth reading.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine...0040767516.htm

[l2ridehd]

All these shows and national media information is more broad stroke for what is going on across the country. Not exactly what is happening in the Villages. That market is actually doing quite well. On new homes they sell about 50 a week and resale about 10 a week. And recently they have been removing incentives that they had in the past several months. So the microcosm in The Villages is somewhat different. That market never declined as much as the rest of the US and probably never will. Just look at foreclosures around the country and in TV. Much lower in TV. So it's good to try to have an understanding of the local market vs the national market. Many people who retire buy for cash or use cash from other sources to support those homes. There income is usually stable, social security, retirement annuities etc. so no lay offs or job losses. The hold up most people have moving there is the home they own it that "other market". But many buy now anyway and own two homes for some period of time.

[tkret]

Very true, l2ridehd, that The Villages is unique but it is not totally immune because many potential homebuyers want to relocate but not until they sell elsewhere in the country. When the housing crisis is over and homes begin selling again, TV will be a MAJOR beneficiary and prices will probably rise at a greater percentage rate than just about anywhere else. But, until that leveling out of home sales across the nation takes place, those in TV who MUST sell, and only those who must, will have to price accordingly. TV may not have had the large price reductions on resales that other parts of the country are experiencing, but the reductions are happening in TV, too. Like the stock market, if you don't have to sell, the lower prices today don't matter because those prices will rebound eventually and in The Villages it will be sooner than later.