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-   -   Is the market going to crash? (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/investment-talk-158/market-going-crash-320487/)

Becca9800 06-10-2021 04:52 PM
Is the market going to crash?
 
I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.

GrumpyOldMan 06-10-2021 05:02 PM
You are trying to do what is called Time the Market. Don't do that. It doesn't work out well for 99.99% of investors that try to do it (just made up percentage, but it is bay far most).

You need to find a person with experience to giver you advice on conservative investment strategies - if you are concerned about losing what you have invested. And then follow that advice and leave it alone.

The market WILL crash eventually. Next week, next year, or next decade - no one can predict, but a lot of people will gladly take your money and promise they can predict it and will protect your investment, do not believe anyone that says they can promise anything.

retiredguy123 06-10-2021 05:11 PM
You shouldn't have all your money in stocks. It should be more like 30 percent stocks, 30 percent intermediate term bonds, and 40 percent cash (money market fund). But, the way to change it is to do it over a long period, like about 2 years. So, take 70 percent of the account, divide by 24 months, and transfer that amount every month into an intermediate term bond fund (like the Vanguard total bond market index fund) and a money market fund (Vanguard MM fund). So, in 2 years, you will have a conservative, balanced portfolio. That is the way I would do it.

Tom52 06-10-2021 05:31 PM
If you can't sleep well at night because you are worried about a market crash you have the wrong asset allocation. You just can't have it both ways. Just remember pigs get fat but hogs get slaughtered. Absolutely no one can accurately predict when the market will crash so you should begin adjusting your investments now if you are uncomfortable how they are allocated.

Becca9800 06-10-2021 05:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by retiredguy123 (Post 1957498)
You shouldn't have all your money in stocks. It should be more like 30 percent stocks, 30 percent intermediate term bonds, and 40 percent cash (money market fund). But, the way to change it is to do it over a long period, like about 2 years. So, take 70 percent of the account, divide by 24 months, and transfer that amount every month into an intermediate term bond fund (like the Vanguard total bond market index fund) and a money market fund (Vanguard MM fund). So, in 2 years, you will have a conservative, balanced portfolio. That is the way I would do it.
See that's how ignorant I am, I don't even use the correct verbiage. I lumped it all as 'in the stock market'. I have to admit that I'm embarrassed. My aggressive retirement portfolio is 46.77% bonds, 27.47% stocks and 25.76% cash/stable value. Given that new info, what say you? Am I on a stable path to preserve my savings?

Becca9800 06-10-2021 05:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GrumpyOldMan (Post 1957497)
You are trying to do what is called Time the Market. Don't do that. It doesn't work out well for 99.99% of investors that try to do it (just made up percentage, but it is bay far most).

You need to find a person with experience to giver you advice on conservative investment strategies - if you are concerned about losing what you have invested. And then follow that advice and leave it alone.

The market WILL crash eventually. Next week, next year, or next decade - no one can predict, but a lot of people will gladly take your money and promise they can predict it and will protect your investment, do not believe anyone that says they can promise anything.
I sought out 2 "experts", one said pull, the other said hold.

Becca9800 06-10-2021 05:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom52 (Post 1957508)
If you can't sleep well at night because you are worried about a market crash you have the wrong asset allocation. You just can't have it both ways. Just remember pigs get fat but hogs get slaughtered. Absolutely no one can accurately predict when the market will crash so you should begin adjusting your investments now if you are uncomfortable how they are allocated.
I love ya, Tom but asset allocation and asset adjustment ain't my strong suits. That's why I sought expert advice, which was conflicting. I'm as dumb as they come when it comes to finance. I mean, I have a credit score in the 800s bc I have debt and pay my bills on time but beyond that.....

Stu from NYC 06-10-2021 05:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Becca9800 (Post 1957512)
I love ya, Tom but asset allocation and asset adjustment ain't my strong suits. That's why I sought expert advice, which was conflicting. I'm as dumb as they come when it comes to finance. I mean, I have a credit score in the 800s bc I have debt and pay my bills on time but beyond that.....
Without knowing your net worth and your age hard to give advise.

Also no idea if you have a pension.

BTW your net worth is none of our business.

What you should do is stop being ignorant. Read some books and/or take a class in personal finance. A financial advisor would be a good thing for you but you need to have some knowledge of finances.

IMHO thinking that with interest rates being this low you are too conservative but that is me. Remember you need your assets to enjoy retirement.

Becca9800 06-10-2021 05:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stu from NYC (Post 1957515)
Without knowing your net worth and your age hard to give advise.

Also no idea if you have a pension.

BTW your net worth is none of our business.

What you should do is stop being ignorant. Read some books and/or take a class in personal finance. A financial advisor would be a good thing for you but you need to have some knowledge of finances.

IMHO thinking that with interest rates being this low you are too conservative but that is me. Remember you need your assets to enjoy retirement.
Can you recommend a book, please?

Tom52 06-10-2021 05:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Becca9800 (Post 1957509)
See that's how ignorant I am, I don't even use the correct verbiage. I lumped it all as 'in the stock market'. I have to admit that I'm embarrassed. My aggressive retirement portfolio is 46.77% bonds, 27.47% stocks and 25.76% cash/stable value. Given that new info, what say you? Am I on a stable path to preserve my savings?
I believe by any definition you already have a conservative asset allocation. Long term you need enough in equities to stay ahead of inflation. Everyone's risk tolerance is different. My suggestion would be to ignore the financial talking heads.

Becca9800 06-10-2021 06:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom52 (Post 1957520)
I believe by any definition you already have a conservative asset allocation. Long term you need enough in equities to stay ahead of inflation. Everyone's risk tolerance is different. My suggestion would be to ignore the financial talking heads.
Really??? Thank you so much! I very much appreciate your opinion.

tuccillo 06-10-2021 06:06 PM
A basic book about asset allocation is:

"All About Asset Allocation" by Richard Ferri.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Becca9800 (Post 1957495)
I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.

retiredguy123 06-10-2021 06:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Becca9800 (Post 1957509)
See that's how ignorant I am, I don't even use the correct verbiage. I lumped it all as 'in the stock market'. I have to admit that I'm embarrassed. My aggressive retirement portfolio is 46.77% bonds, 27.47% stocks and 25.76% cash/stable value. Given that new info, what say you? Am I on a stable path to preserve my savings?
It sounds like you already have a good balance to your portfolio. I would check to see the average duration of the bonds. They should be short term or intermediate term bonds, NOT long term. Long term bonds are too risky. The average maturity of the bonds should be less than 10 years. And, if you discuss your investments with an advisor, DO NOT let them sell you an annuity. Again, DO NOT transfer your investments into an annuity.

dewilson58 06-10-2021 06:38 PM
:1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:

Interesting advice without know an age.


:1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:

GrumpyOldMan 06-10-2021 06:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Becca9800 (Post 1957510)
I sought out 2 "experts", one said pull, the other said hold.
Did you vet the "experts". And that is not a surprise, ask 5 more and you will get 5 more types of advice.

And the absolute worst place to get advice on almost anything is online in a forum.

Becca9800 06-10-2021 07:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GrumpyOldMan (Post 1957537)
Did you vet the "experts". And that is not a surprise, ask 5 more and you will get 5 more types of advice.

And the absolute worst place to get advice on almost anything is online in a forum.
I mean how would I vet an expert? I don't know what I don't know. They were both recommendations from friends and that didn't pan out. So on the forum issue, I'm looking for majority. I understand the risk is still mine, simply looking for opinions.

Becca9800 06-10-2021 07:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by retiredguy123 (Post 1957531)
It sounds like you already have a good balance to your portfolio. I would check to see the average duration of the bonds. They should be short term or intermediate term bonds, NOT long term. Long term bonds are too risky. The average maturity of the bonds should be less than 10 years. And, if you discuss your investments with an advisor, DO NOT let them sell you an annuity. Again, DO NOT transfer your investments into an annuity.
Got it! Ensure investment in bonds are in those w <10 year maturity and NO annuities. 2 concepts never before heard. Thank you!!!!

Becca9800 06-10-2021 07:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tuccillo (Post 1957524)
A basic book about asset allocation is:

"All About Asset Allocation" by Richard Ferri.
So..... if my money is w Lincoln Financial, in an Aggressive Retirement portfolio (46.77% bonds, 27.47% stocks and 25.76% cash/stable value) is it imperative that I understand asset allocation? Or can I trust Lincoln? This is truly a case of I don't know what I don't know. Honestly, I don't want to understand it, I want to be able to trust the experts. But as with all things, in the end.....

Becca9800 06-10-2021 07:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dewilson58 (Post 1957534)
:1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:

Interesting advice without know an age.


:1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:
So I'm 61 and retired w >3 years of monthly payments for health care coverage until Medicare kicks in at 65. Pension? Ha! Haha! I worked in health care for nearly 40 years, there is no pension to speak of. I def picked the wrong line of work. Me and the bank own two homes, my car is paid off and there is no other debt. I feel very fortunate though, so many are in much worse straights. IDK. Does that shed any light?

Stu from NYC 06-10-2021 08:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Becca9800 (Post 1957548)
So..... if my money is w Lincoln Financial, in an Aggressive Retirement portfolio (46.77% bonds, 27.47% stocks and 25.76% cash/stable value) is it imperative that I understand asset allocation? Or can I trust Lincoln? This is truly a case of I don't know what I don't know. Honestly, I don't want to understand it, I want to be able to trust the experts. But as with all things, in the end.....
How do you know if the so called expert is looking out for your best interests?

Do you have a close friend or relative you can trust to help you?

Becca9800 06-10-2021 08:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stu from NYC (Post 1957558)
How do you know if the so called expert is looking out for your best interests?

Do you have a close friend or relative you can trust to help you?
I don't know that anyone has my best interests in mind! That's my #1 concern. The 2 experts I consulted were recommended by friends, they gave conflicting advice (see previous posts).

tuccillo 06-10-2021 08:10 PM
The book I suggested, or any number of other basic books, will help you start to understand what an advisor is suggesting. Investing a little time will be worthwhile.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Becca9800 (Post 1957548)
So..... if my money is w Lincoln Financial, in an Aggressive Retirement portfolio (46.77% bonds, 27.47% stocks and 25.76% cash/stable value) is it imperative that I understand asset allocation? Or can I trust Lincoln? This is truly a case of I don't know what I don't know. Honestly, I don't want to understand it, I want to be able to trust the experts. But as with all things, in the end.....

OrangeBlossomBaby 06-10-2021 08:38 PM
Your 403B is in lieu of a pension. Since you're over 59-1/2 you can touch it without significant penalty if you really want to. But if you don't need to, you probably should just sit on it for awhile. See if you can hold out til you're eligible for Medicare, and then if you need it to cover the cost of part D or whatever they end up having in a few years, and to supplement your social security income, it'll be there for you.

stevecmo 06-10-2021 08:40 PM
To be upfront, I know absolutely nothing about Lincoln Financial. If your asset allocation is truly 27/73 (stocks/fixed income) and they are calling that their "aggressive portfolio", I would look elsewhere.

Having said that, 27/73 would be considered very conservative but may be appropriate if it lets you sleep at night. However, most advisors say you need at least 40-50% equities (stocks) to keep up with inflation.

I would suggest you visit bogleheads.org . John Bogle was the founder of Vanguard. Spend some time on the forum. Introduce yourself and ask questions. Explore the Wiki. There is also a recommended reading list.

Hope that helps.

bandsdavis 06-10-2021 08:42 PM
Not Aggresive
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Becca9800 (Post 1957509)
See that's how ignorant I am, I don't even use the correct verbiage. I lumped it all as 'in the stock market'. I have to admit that I'm embarrassed. My aggressive retirement portfolio is 46.77% bonds, 27.47% stocks and 25.76% cash/stable value. Given that new info, what say you? Am I on a stable path to preserve my savings?
From what I know, that does not describe an "Aggresive", portfolio, but very conservative. If you are not working with a certified financial advisor, that's your first mistake. IMHO

Carla B 06-10-2021 09:10 PM
The suggestion to visit Bogleheads.org is a very good one, as is the one to read the Richard Ferri book. As I recall he was a pupil of John Bogle. Richard Ferri also runs a financial adviser firm. The Bogleheads forum which deals with new investor topics a lot. Not only do they discuss investment strategies there is discussion on personal finance, as well.

If you do a search on Investments in this forum, TOTV, you will gain a lot of knowledge right here, as well..

Topspinmo 06-10-2021 09:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Becca9800 (Post 1957495)
I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.


Yes.

Becca9800 06-10-2021 10:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OrangeBlossomBaby (Post 1957577)
Your 403B is in lieu of a pension. Since you're over 59-1/2 you can touch it without significant penalty if you really want to. But if you don't need to, you probably should just sit on it for awhile. See if you can hold out til you're eligible for Medicare, and then if you need it to cover the cost of part D or whatever they end up having in a few years, and to supplement your social security income, it'll be there for you.
Right. That much I get. The real question.... do I leave my money where it is, is it safe from any market crash? Or do I need to move it to a safer place?

Becca9800 06-10-2021 10:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Topspinmo (Post 1957584)
Yes.
Yes? Yes what?

Becca9800 06-10-2021 10:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bandsdavis (Post 1957580)
From what I know, that does not describe an "Aggresive", portfolio, but very conservative. If you are not working with a certified financial advisor, that's your first mistake. IMHO
I think I'm OK w a conservative portfolio and I tried to hook up w a financial advisor but rec'd conflicting advice. Now what?

Becca9800 06-10-2021 10:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stevecmo (Post 1957579)
To be upfront, I know absolutely nothing about Lincoln Financial. If your asset allocation is truly 27/73 (stocks/fixed income) and they are calling that their "aggressive portfolio", I would look elsewhere.

Having said that, 27/73 would be considered very conservative but may be appropriate if it lets you sleep at night. However, most advisors say you need at least 40-50% equities (stocks) to keep up with inflation.

I would suggest you visit bogleheads.org . John Bogle was the founder of Vanguard. Spend some time on the forum. Introduce yourself and ask questions. Explore the Wiki. There is also a recommended reading list.

Hope that helps.
It helped! Thank you!

Becca9800 06-10-2021 10:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tuccillo (Post 1957564)
The book I suggested, or any number of other basic books, will help you start to understand what an advisor is suggesting. Investing a little time will be worthwhile.
Your advice is very worthwhile. I can't thank you enough! THANK YOU!!!

Hiltongrizz11 06-11-2021 04:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Becca9800 (Post 1957518)
Can you recommend a book, please?
Dave Ramsey "The Total Money Makeover"

It may change your life and I hope it does!

csricksdds 06-11-2021 05:12 AM
A wise man once told me: "All assumptions are false, all assumptions are true - we must make assumptions"

thevillages2013 06-11-2021 05:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Becca9800 (Post 1957518)
Can you recommend a book, please?
Investing for dummies:bigbow:

dewilson58 06-11-2021 05:22 AM
[QUOTE=Becca9800;1957552]So I'm 61 and retired w >3 years of monthly payments for health care coverage until Medicare kicks in at 65. Pension? Ha! Haha! I worked in health care for nearly 40 years, there is no pension to speak of. I def picked the wrong line of work. Me and the bank own two homes, my car is paid off and there is no other debt. I feel very fortunate though, so many are in much worse straights. IDK. Does that shed any light?[/QUOTE]

Thank you for your service in our healthcare industry.
It's impossible for anyone to give financial advise without knowing your age.
Investing in your 20's, vs. 40's, vs. 60's is very different.
The advise on ths public social board is like a Clint Eastwood movie....The Good, The Bad, The Ugly.

Books are good for basic knowledge, don't buy the get rich books.
Good to have basic knowledge.

People you know are the best reference for financial advisors.

GRACEALLEMAN 06-11-2021 05:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Becca9800 (Post 1957495)
I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.
Have you ever heard of Vanguard? You need to get a hold of Vanguard investments. We've been with them for over 30 years and done very well very safe thorough knowledge. They have the lowest fee of any investment firm lower than Fidelity. Call Vanguard investments toll free number

irishwonone 06-11-2021 05:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GrumpyOldMan (Post 1957497)
You are trying to do what is called Time the Market. Don't do that. It doesn't work out well for 99.99% of investors that try to do it (just made up percentage, but it is bay far most).

You need to find a person with experience to giver you advice on conservative investment strategies - if you are concerned about losing what you have invested. And then follow that advice and leave it alone.

The market WILL crash eventually. Next week, next year, or next decade - no one can predict, but a lot of people will gladly take your money and promise they can predict it and will protect your investment, do not believe anyone that says they can promise anything.
Yes eventually the market will reset and prices will go down. Whatever goes up eventually goes down. We’re at all time highs so you should anticipate change.

retiredguy123 06-11-2021 05:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GRACEALLEMAN (Post 1957618)
Have you ever heard of Vanguard? You need to get a hold of Vanguard investments. We've been with them for over 30 years and done very well very safe thorough knowledge. They have the lowest fee of any investment firm lower than Fidelity. Call Vanguard investments toll free number
I agree that Vanguard would be a good way to go. But, Fidelity is also a good choice because they have an office in The Villages. You may feel more comfortable dealing with a live person. The first step would be to ask them to help you transfer all assets from your 403B account into an IRA account of no load funds, without changing your current asset allocation. Then, you will need a little knowledge to adjust your portfolio as needed.

akerwin1909 06-11-2021 05:42 AM
Stock Market
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Becca9800 (Post 1957495)
I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes
to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.
First, I’d start reading everything there is about investing in the stock market. There’s no excuse for remaining ignorant of your investments. It’s so important that I would start learning immediately. You don’t have to become a broker just know what they are doing and whether it’s the right thing. Next, you should never be in an aggressive position if you’re over the age where
You rely on that investment. Whomever is your advisor is not doing right by you if they are still in an aggressive position now. That is just crazy. Please get wise and talk to a local person here who really k nonws how to treat senior’s money.


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