Did we blow it with the lockdown?
 

Meet Professor Lockdown. Professor Neil Ferguson, epidemiologist at Imperial College London. I'll get to the pretty lady in a sec.

Attachment 83985

Professor Ferguson's computer models projected 500k deaths in UK, 2.2 million in USA if strict lockdowns and social distancing were not put in place immediately. UK and USA governments listened. He later lowered his estimates drastically, but damage was done.

He just resigned after being caught having the pretty lady, who is married, over to his house a couple times. This was direct violation of UK rules forbidding intermingling of households. According to the Telegraph, “She has told friends about her relationship with Prof Ferguson, but does not believe their actions to be hypocritical because she considers the households to be one" LOL Anyway, the Professor apparently believes you should do as I say, not what I do.

So I am watching reports about Sweden, the only country I know that has not enacted a lockdown to see how they are doing. Their death rate per million (282) is higher than their Baltic neighbors, but much lower than UK, Spain, France, Italy. Our death rate per million in USA is 214. So many think this shows their herd immunity approach is not working.

Total confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people - Our World in Data

However, you need to look at the big picture. This is by no means over yet. We were sold the lockdown because it flattens the curve and the main reason to do this is so our hospitals do not get overrun. There are no reports of Sweden's hospitals getting overrun. Their economy has not taken the huge hit that ours has.

The lockdown does not stop the virus from killing people, it just slows it down. Epidemiologists and Dr Fauci predict that we will have successive waves of this virus for 1.5 to 2 years. We may have to lockdown again if it gets really bad.

So let's say Sweden achieves herd immunity in a few months, their death toll will stop growing. Countries who have taken the lockdown approach will continue to have deaths and their numbers will grow, passing Sweden.

The only thing that will change this is if an effective vaccine is produced. That could be in 6 months, two years, or never. At this point, I think if a vaccine is produced in 6 months or less, the lockdown approach is probably better. If not, we may find out Sweden's strategy is the better one.

It ain't over till the fat lady sings.

Good question but hopefully one of the vaccines being tested now will be available by end of the year and stop the virus in its tracks

Just a thought, as the virus mutates, and it is thought that it is already a different strain in Europe and US than it was in Asia, and immunity for one strain does not give immunity for the next strain. So Sweden may well have paid all those deaths in vain.

The problem with herd mentality is it allows others to infect you and kill you, even if you take precautions. The question then becomes a moral one. Is assisted suicide not the same thing? Is abortion not the same thing? All three allow someone else to take your life. At least with assisted suicide, you have given permission to be killed. Just a query.

They are not having corona parties in Sweden so everyone gets infected, they have told seniors and at risk people to stay home. Those that go out are told to practice social distancing. You are not required to go out and mingle, just like here as we relax the rules. Nobody is going to kill you if you stay home and take precautions.

Herd immunity does not require 100% get infected, just enough so that the virus dies out from lack of hosts.

Good thought. At this point we don't know how long immunity lasts or if it works against all strains. I'm sure it will be studied.

There are not widespread reports of large numbers of people getting infected twice, most of those reports are of individuals who have relapsed or possible faulty testing.

The jury is still out on whether the Swedes got it right...but time will certainly tell

I do wonder though if the approach that Sweden took would have actually worked in the States...the two cultures are very different

this takes the post a little off course, but it is about the Swedes, so I'll share:

Back in the 1900's a manufacturing company in central Massachusetts, where I was raised, sent recruiters to Sweden and brought hundreds of Swedes over to America to work in their factory. Their research had indicated that Swedes were much more inclined to adapt and follow direction and far less likely to organize into a union than other nationalities or the local US workers at that time were. This one company wanted to avoid having to deal with a union. That company ended up with a predominant Swedish workforce and to this day never did unionize. All of the other large manufacturing firms in that same city did unionize.

Very true

Swedes are Osjälviska (selfless)

Lots of smart people working on it!

When the vaccine is released and available to the public let us hope the general public is more responsive to it than they have been with flu shots.

In my opinion those who have decided for what ever reason to not get a flu shot will also not get the Covid-19 vaccine.

I don't hate the Swedish approach. They have the advantage of 50% of their population being in single-person households vs. 30% in the U.S. so it makes more sense for them. The question is whether they will get to herd immunity before a vaccine or treatment is developed. If they do, they made the right call. If they don't, well, I won't criticize them because they made a reasonable gamble. At least they have a plan, we're just treading water.

Herd mentality is indeed a problem. However, we are discussing herd immunity which is a good thing.

I feel that folks have far too much time on their hands what with the stay at home guidelines. They read and put together strange hypotheses hoping to save the world. I feel it is healthy to be informed but harmful to try to inflict your beliefs on others.

I hope we develop head immunity and a vaccine, but that doesn’t always work. Think about the common cold. Time will tell.

But this was also the point of the lockdown or self-isolation: IF people had strictly complied for a matter of only about 2 weeks, the same lack of hosts could/would have occurred.

Besides, herd immunity to COVID-19 is still only a theory. Nobody knows whether or not there is actually any immunity at all, and if there is, how long it lasts.

Other nations seem to have had very good results with their strict lockdown strategies, such as South Korea & Greece.

Hate to be negative here, but the fat lady is just warming up.

And you know this HOW???

Unless you are a virologist or epidemiologist with the CDC or WHO with a specialty in the pathogenesis of single stranded RNA viruses, your statement is PURE CONJECTURE

I really do not believe anyone’s numbers. FYI 206 per million is higher then must country Switzerland is the 18th highest cases recorded so not sure they doing that great. If you believe the recorded data then China is doing great with only 3 per million deaths....lol. I think we may have made mis-steps absolutely but I truly believe our death toll would have been so much higher.....only time will tell and all our Monday Morning Quarterbacks won’t change anything unless we are willing to learn from this.

Sweden has advantages that we don’t. At any sign of illness they can go on paid sick leave and they have socialized medicine.

I disagree that "the only thing that will change this is if an effective vaccine is produced". I also really want them to work on treating the virus with effective methods, rather than wait for a vaccine that may be ineffective for the inevitable mutations of this virus (which is already happening).

The pain will continue until the lesson is learned

Herd immunity will require a horrendous death toll to get there. Mothers, fathers, grandparents, sisters, brothers, friends, maybe me and you will be sacrificed to accomplish this goal. Is it worth it?

What does the implied affair with the pretty have to do with anything? At any rate, the best defense against this virus getting out of hand would have been requiring everyone to wear masks or a face covering (nose and mouth) when anywhere in public. The mask or covering drastically reduces the chance that an infected individual will spread the virus, not 100% of course, but I think better than what we are doing now. It would still be a good move and then we could open things up much quicker. Why there is so much resistance to that is beyond me. Why do some think it such a big deal, or some kind of infringement of their rights? Is a lockdown and business closures better? Get everyone wearing a mask or covering and then get things back open with little to no restrictions.

Herd immunity works great if you're not the member of the herd being culled.

Agree 100% for INDOOR environments. Completely unnecessary OUTDOORS

Here are the findings of a recent study:

"Three hundred and eighteen outbreaks with three or more cases were identified, involving 1245 confirmed cases in 120 prefectural cities. We divided the venues in which the outbreaks occurred into six categories: homes, transport, food, entertainment, shopping, and miscellaneous. Among the identified outbreaks, 53.8% involved three cases, 26.4% involved four cases, and only 1.6% involved ten or more cases. Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport (108; 34.0%; note that many outbreaks involved more than one venue category). Most home outbreaks involved three to five cases. We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases. The first salient feature of the 318 identified outbreaks that involved three or more cases is that they all occurred in indoor environments. Although this finding was expected, its significance has not been well recognized by the community and by policy makers. Indoors is where our lives and work are in modern civilization. The transmission of respiratory infections such as SARS-CoV-2 from the infected to the susceptible is an indoor phenomenon."

Now here is a question I would really like a legitimate answer to:

I have seen dozens of people driving alone in their car with the windows up and wearing a mask. WHY???. I'd like to hear from any of those people as to what they are thinking, since I can't come up with a reason.

I am not one of those people. I have to think they think they are doing the right thing. They aren't really, wearing masks in their cars.

But, I like THEM a tad better than those who are all concerned about losing their rights because of temporary rules set up for a very unusual happening.

I believe the numbers from western countries. China numbers are garbage. They actually banned funerals Feb 1st in a childish attempt to hide their death totals. Third world countries lack testing capabilities to give a true picture.

It seems you missed a key point in in my post. The data we see about total cases, death rates etc is just a snapshot in time. We haven't even finished the first quarter of this game. The winners are determined when the game is over.

Right, we don’t wear them when we walk. Although, if it looked liked we would be outside standing in a line or something we might. Also, masks don’t help restaurants or bars so social distancing would still be necessary. I just think most of these closures and lockdowns are overkill when masks actually are a better solution in many cases.

Lets see. The scientist whose phony models scared the world into enacting strict lockdowns and social distancing doesn't see fit to follow the rules himself. Reminds me of a mayor who closed all gyms but kept going himself.

Your statement would apply to almost all comments made by TOTV contributors to this topic. People are only offering their opinions.

Until and unless we get some hard figures, some genuine data that can be trusted on who is sick, what they are sick with, what did they die of …., until then, the virologists and epidemiologists with the CDC or WHO with a specialty in the pathogenesis of single stranded RNA viruses will have difficulty with their projections.

I bet a lot of them are ready to BITE.

People are social animals, without social contact society dies and with it civilization. If we are to survive as a nation we must be pragmatic regarding our reaction to the dangers of the virus. The virus will not go away. Viruses which were prevalent decades ago are still around but not epidemic. If we do not open up our country we will destroy what took hundreds of years to create. People who are at risk or fearful can continue to self isolate. Those who want to live should be allowed to carry on with life as it was before the virus. Do we not drive because we might be killed in a car accident? Do people not smoke because they might die from cancer? If we allow bureaucrats and politicians to dictate our lives how long before they tell us what to eat and drink; what to wear and how to wear it. I am 74 and my group still plays pickleball. We would rather be free to choose how to live and die. People die, it should be their choice how they go. I will go with a smile on my face.

Actually she's right, the fat lady is just warming up, according to epidemiologists

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/sites/def...nt-part1_0.pdf

The mayor example is not the same thing. A better example is you find out the carpenter you hired is having an affair. Do you fire him because of the affair? He could be doing perfectly fine with the work you hired him to do. And if he isn’t, does it really have anything to do with the affair? That was really my question.

That is why I am so torn. Spanish Flu back in 1918-1920 came in waves while social distancing and wearing masks. Weren’t there 500,000,000 deaths worldwide? What to do, what to do?

Read this and tell me if epidemiologists (not me) think the fat lady is about to sing.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/sites/def...nt-part1_0.pdf

see figure 1, we are currently on the left side of the timeline showing projected waves of the virus

Thank you for providing proof of my post. Those of us who are willing to live life as we see fit should not be isolated by fiat. Those who want to isolate themselves should do so and not cast aspersions against those who do not want to isolate themselves. Freedom of choice, my body my choice is what the progressives preach but do not adhere to. (I am a conservative)

Sweden has a rate of just over 12% deaths per infected, the US is just under 6%. If we followed Sweden's plan we could have conceivably had 2,526,486 infected and 149,620 deaths at this point.

Deaths per million is nothing more than a statistic, and leads to a false sense of security. San Marino has a death rate of 1208/million, over 4 times US and Sweden, which resulted in 41 dead, yes 41!

Deaths per infection is reality!

So it comes down to choice, do I put my money on the chances of getting the virus, or do I go all in on the chances of surviving it.

Numbers don't lie, but they can be misused.

Not at all.

First of all the researchers in the article cited 3 different possible scenarios. None of them signal the end of civilization nor even suggest "the fat lady is just warming up"

Second, they are retrospectively comparing histories of 8 INFLUENZA epidemics since 1700 and extrapolating to possible COVID 19 future scenarios. Interesting, but hardly definitive. After all, just look at the early models that suggested 2 million + American deaths

Based upon how both organizations have done so far, I would put my faith elsewhere.